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I'll buy them for $.65!!!!!
Do you and Pumpykins hang out at the same bar??? Who called who 1st today to schedule your appearance here??? Is it a coincidence all of you Mother Theresa's show up on news day???Who are you trying to convince that our little PRE-REVENUE LWLG is such a terrible investment?? Inquiring minds want to know
X
"I always shake my head at the posters that invest in something and then publicly post their doubts to try and worry others. (Wearing one's heart on one's sleeve.)"
I find it ridiculous that a shareholder that owns stock will post nothing but FUD on a public message board. It surely doesn't help the stock go higher and i ALWAYS doubt the credibility of those posters. It's counter-productive to any shareholders goal of having stock they SUPPOSEDLY own go higher. JMHO
Noblynx,
The underlying theme of the author of that blog is the Goliath Data-Center companies have decimated the photonic supplier companies with their cut-throat pricing demands so your CTXS story rings true here. I'm sure these Goliaths will not be handing Lebby a blank check so LWLG will have to earn their place at the table. I have no illusions as to WHEN LWLG gains a seat at the table, I only have illusions that we eventually WILL. I'm not a 10-15 year old shareholder here so my patience level with my investment is much greater than some of long term holders that post here.
LWLG tech is worth a lot more than $70MM if proven and i believe they are slowly but surely proving their tech. Of course i can be wrong and if so i will run and hide, lick my wounds and live to fight another day.
Remember reading it and thank you for reminding me how smart our Dr Lebby is. The post was for Noblynx and his disdain for why we were not part of or invited to join "COBO"
I think I'm starting to see a pattern develop that looks eerily similar to accumulation of a larger buyer in a thinly traded stock (LWLG). Been going on since December. Make me feel more comfortable and MHO
Hopefully more competitive than 2016
Can I take a crack at an answer??
1) Credible, astute Institutional investors run and hide from companies financed by the method used by LWLG (LPC ATM financing)
2) The history of Polymers being used in Telecom and Data Centers isn't exactly stellar. Peter and the Wolf comes to mind. You are right when you say we have to wait to prove the Goo before we get rewarded. I believe most here are believers and we are all just a little early to the party, which entails more risk.
3) It takes 2 to tango. How do you know there is not a huge divide between what Lebby thinks LWLG is worth and what his Tier 1 customers believe. More positive data would help narrow that divide.
4) The stock market daily mechanism for extracting correct valuation is not perfect. Numerous examples exist of stocks sky-rocketing over a short amount of time when value is seen or valuation is proven
I'm early here and I'm OK with that. I know there are ACTUAL shareholders that have been here for 15+ years and they were REALLY early. We all are simply waiting for the next data points to fortify our resolve to hold or buy more. The 2 new patents reinforce Lebby's picture of creating a platform and i liked the news. Happy New Year everyone and Go Buckeyes...Beat Clemson!!!!
Wolf in Sheep's clothing
Kind of like reading all the FUD posts on this board. The Dark Side of the Force is strong here. Merry Christmas everyone. Go Lebby, Team LWLG and Go Buckeyes!!!
Don't know what you can accomplish with all the FUD but by all means FUD away!!!!!
Yup. Looks like someone wanted a nice size block, hence the run-up to $.90. Obviously a good sign but need substantive news to keep the train rolling
VOLUME
Looked back at historical data to see if I'm seeing something different. MAR 2019 is when we spiked to $1.30 with very strong volume. Went from $1.00-$1.30-$1.00 over a 20 day trading period. Taking into consideration recent news and where we're at on our timeline, this seems different. Buyers feel like there's a sense of urgency to buy. Just my personal observation. Still irritated some of my buy orders didn't fill at $.61. Greedy dumbdumbs some times get what they deserve. Rambo is right, these gaps in the chart tend to always get filled so maybe I can still buy in the low $.70 range
Good 1st step. Loved Lebby's comments
Thx Richard and ProV1,
Ever since Lebby came on board he has been making moves to educate the industry of our potential and he's also trying to prove that potential via testing. I see post after post of whiny crap about 10-15 years of nothing and a crappy stock price. How is this company not different today than 10-15 years ago??????? We can't start the race until someone pays us so we have a lot more to prove but I'm willing to wait
I just read one of Pump-i-kins posts about Lebby being deceived. Find it hard to believe someone with over 75 Patents to his name would sign up for a scam in an industry he has committed his entire professional career to.
So prior to 2018 it appears to me LWLG had not tested their material to pass Telcordia GR-68 standards. If this is true, how is this company not different today than 10-15 years ago??? Don't care if we're at $.60 or $1.35 (not really true as i'm buying at these prices) because with a Named Tier 1 partner this stock can go to $2-$3 overnight
Go Buckeyes, beat Wisconsin!!!!
Proto, i think you're missing my question.
2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2015. Has LWLG ever gone through the process (like they are now doing) of having a device tested per Telcordia GR-68 standards (5k hrs at the high/low temperature ranges) previous to their current testing attempts
Question
In LWLG 15 years of existence have they ever tried to compile data on a device that shows it will meet Telcordia GR-68 standards??
I like reading that FibeReality blog to learn more about the industry. The over-riding theme the author takes away from his research is the Goliath Data Center companies are destroying the photonic component supply chain with their cut throat pricing demands. With our data reported I'm sure Lebby has gotten offers but my guess is they are no where near his valuation of LWLG. That report that someone linked today highlighted Telecordia standard testing (5k hrs) required. 40 years of trying to solve the polymer problem and no one has solved it yet so industry remains sceptical. I think that tells me not 1 penny is coming our way until 110% proven. The data reported to date sure looks like we are on to a solution so I wait for more data. I also have a theory re: silence from the company. My experience tells me most executives of small cap companies are greedy. I'm sure they won't mind stock option grants at such low prices
My math tells me that's 1MM shares traded over approx 25 trading days equating to 40k shares a day. JMHO, but this trading looks different. Doesn't really worry me as there are apparently numerous disgruntled shareholders tired of waiting and the silence from the company
How many are they holding??? They get them at a 10% discount so i'm assuming they're not looking a gift horse in the mouth and selling majority immediately for a profit
so $665k sold over a 40 day time period????? from 9/30 through 11/11???
Have to disagree with you here Proto. Someone is dumping, hitting any sizable bid that pops up. Looks alot different than the LPC trading. I can only assume a shareholder is tired of waiting, which is understandable. Life in the land of a no revenue OTC company. Hurry up and wait
Gates,
If you're not selling down here, and i don't think you are based on your opinion of the value of our polymer tech, why does this number on a screen continue to bother you so much???. I contend you wouldn't be a seller at $1.00 but somehow that would make you feel better seeing that number on your screen???? You know full well this stock can move up $1.00 IN A DAY with a proper partner announcement. You seem like a good dude quit letting the stock price bother you so much
Stock looks like it wants to go lower.
We've been getting nice bids of 40-80k at $.67- $.65 over the last month and the relentless selling has whacked every one of them. We may have some frustrated long time longs selling besides LPC. Needs some help from the company via PR to stop this. Just what I'm seeing. It never fails... every time I think I've found a bottom the stock can always go lower. $.62 52 week low or 2016' low around $.50 could be next target. Unfortunately I like the V shape bounce around $.50 in 2016 and the subsequent re-test at $.50 a few months later. Before i receive the typical responses please remember i don't give a crap about these prices. I'll just buy more at either one of those price points. JMHO
We should be done compiling all of our data soon, and if expected positive data, the company can get down to business. Hurry up and wait!!!
Why place no value on IP???? No value on accomplishments up to date???
No background. LWLG has been pretty busy at the USPTO office in 2019 though and recent Legislative changes will make that IP more valuable in the future (if they're successful). LPC would be a deterrent to getting any meaningful Institutional investment. I actually side with Lebby here... Prove the science and money will come. Prove the science and the shareholders will get rewarded. I truly do not care about the stock price. If it goes lower I will buy more. I'm not so arrogant to think i can predict bottoms accurately. It's all a guessing game in the end.
From an IP professional on the VHC board. I don't hold the long term wounds of the LWLG science experiment. I see a drastically different company than the one that you long term holders invested in 10-12 years ago. I recently get crushed by an accounting restatement in another company i was invested in. Not finalized yet but it appears on the surface entire management team simply lied and put out false financials.
I find it difficult to think of Dr Lebby acting in this manner with his reputation and accomplishments in this field. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this the 1st time a working device is in front of a Tier 1 company for evaluation. Especially a 100GB device that is at the forefront of achievement in the photonics field to date. Throw in the built in advantages of our polymers (smaller, faster, cheaper, cooler. electricity usage) and it's an impressive potential investment if proven.
I have learned to distance myself from the emotional reaction one gets when looking at numbers on computer screens or acct statements. If i think a company can achieve a $1BB valuation in the future and it's currently trading at $60MM why do i care if it goes down to $50MM, $40MM or $30MM. We're all investing in a rather advanced science experiment and judgement day seems to be coming soon (6 months?? or earlier). I can wait, i don't mind roller coasters and i'm a big boy and can take the loss if proven wrong
Similar chart patterns of past companies combined with the fact we are moving closer to a defining event (proof of concept). My guess is the stock is moving 1 way or the other over the next few months. Even LPC and it's parasitic Hedge Fund don't seem to want to take this below this $.65-$.70 range. That being said, watch the stock hit $.50 next week (ha-ha). Love Lebby, don't like LPC, love the potential cost and energy savings, hate the photonic component industry valuations. Proven solution from LWLG worth multiples of our $60MM market cap. Believe Mr Market is mis-pricing our stock based on progress to date
I love the support the stock is showing in this range. My 30 yr experience tells me we are soon about to move out of this range... one way or another!!! I know which way I'm betting!!
Quotes from breakout session ECOC i found interesting
We wanted to know from Mark Nowell, a Fellow at Cisco, whether his remark that the 400GbE is pretty much ready to go and that is has been accomplished quicker than any previous generation of speed was in contradiction to his later comments regarding the pace of SerDes development. He denied it by referring to all of the 8x50G being shown at the show, which the vendor is ostensibly planning to deploy. Nevertheless, after insisting that for the purposes of discussion, putting aside what is being shown on the floor, after a series of quick, follow-up questions by us, he conceded that 4x100-gig would be preferable, including in facilitating 8x100-gig -- as well as that it would lead to optimal operational advantages, which many other engineers are pushing, and they would be aspects that would be readily brought to the table.
Despite Paul Brooks, Optical Transport, Marketing at Viavi Solutions stressing that 400G is a whole new ballgame in terms of a greater amount of efficient measurements, etc., as complexity increases in a market that is heavily going through commoditization, he did not appear to deny our assertion that the best sector to be a player in the optics space is in testing. He pointed out that the new data rate required a step change in rearchitecting the entire testing architecture, and that with all of the moving parts, there is a certain amount of risk in placing bets on R&D expenditures. Furthermore, he talked about the last element for operators to consider are tools for measurement. Of course, with the hyperscalers being such a dominant force, it is not like the old days in which the traditional service providers would wait for a tremendous amount of pain before seriously transitioning to the next data rate (as avoiding the expense of these test systems as long as possible was the rule).
It seems the Big Data Center customers have decimated the Photonic Tranceiver industry with their cut-throat tactics. I would agree they will try similar tactics with LWLG even if they love their tech. Either way the end result for LWLG with proven tech leads us to MULTIPLES from this price. Hurry up and wait!!!!
Personal choice. They may think they're being sneaky and we can't see it's an algo. Amateur work
Most of the online platforms now allow individuals to program simple Algo's to execute transactions. My guess is it's an individual simply trying to liquidate a 20k share position. Could be larger so we'll have to wait until next week to see if it continues. Of course Lincoln Park/Market Makers. Short Hedge Funds see this from a mile away and lower their buying prices. Would love to see these Algo's programmed to BUY but sadly not the case here
Would venture to guess we have long term shareholders tired of waiting and moving on but I think they're being stupid. If they can't see the difference between the Lebby led LWLG and it's 7-10 year ago alter ego that's their problem. Hurry up and wait!!!!!
Someone is running an Algo selling approx 878 shares every approx 20 minutes
Take a look at the last 1 1/2 months and look at the support in the $.67-.70 range and ask again if this is a good short at these prices. We all know who is selling everyday... who is buying?????
The modulator is a component of the transceiver, correct?? Any idea as to the % bill of sale for the modulator alone??? 20, 30, 40% ????
The author of that blog takes a very dim view of the component supplier industry because of the destructive pricing tactics of all the Tier 1 data-center companies. Huge commodity race to the bottom doesn't bode well for profit margins and stock prices
Sure looks like proof (data) from LWLG of their 100GB sub 1 volt modulator should open up the flood gates. Hurry up and wait!!
Haven't ascertained the purpose or $$ behind that author's blog yet but reading the articles doesn't leave anyone warm and fuzzy about the Photonic Component Supplier industry. He thinks the PIC industry is a pipe dream and continually downplays any progress by LWLG.
I've always thought LWLG was entering a cut-throat commodity market but still believe smaller, faster, cheaper, cooler, uses less electricity.
Like reading the blog though as it somewhat educates me on the industry. One thing very common in all of his articles is you need to add 1-2 years to timelines for industry adoption
thought this was interesting. Written back in APR
https://www.fibereality.com/blog/junipers-siph-reductio-ad-absurdum
Now Juniper Networks has joined Intel and Cisco Systems in offering 100G data communications transceivers (TXs), in which margins are awfully tough, if not unfeasible in many cases. What is next – Arista Networks being coerced by the hyperscale data center operators to purchase a Silicon Photonics (SiPh) supplier, such as Skorpios Technologies, which has appeared to be in limbo for a long time, but according to the optics supplier in 2017, has a CWDM4 solution? Even Mellanox Technologies (now in the process of being acquired by NVIDIA) entered the PSM4 space that same year, and it is still not totally evident to us whether it relinquished its problematic (SiPh) gear. Once again, the hyperscalers destroyed the optics ecosystem, which has resulted in Lumentum Holdings removing a principal optical TX supplier, along with varying levels of negative impacts on players, such as Kaiam and ColorChip. Separately, MACOM likely is still struggling to put its disparate piece-parts together to build a transceiver. Most vitally, there is the unknown future impact of the II-VI/Finisar merger. Thus, the cloud providers have been increasingly putting pressure on other major vendors to pick up the slack (including engaging in co-packaged optics publicity), despite their gear primarily concentrated in other technical areas. In the end, the long-term goal of these buyers is to use them to drive down prices on higher-capacity TXs to ridiculous levels, using similar, ruthless practices, as happened with 100G, including encouraging any artificial means to get that aim accomplished. Consequently, in the same way that Cisco’s top optical executive is put on the spot to explain the unexplainable, Juniper Network’s CTO has to endure the same painful experience.
Actually, we cannot rule out Juniper ultimately using conventional components for any kind of high-volume, 100G device shipments, as we have suspected Intel has been doing, as the former pointed out that the underlying, complicated SiPh technology, is similar to that of the latter. fibeReality is very skeptical of at least some of the improvement claims made by Juniper, particularly leading to a cost benefit, when it logically could not even come close to spending the resources that Intel did in the past, only for the chip giant to apparently keep on internally proving the inability to make this so-called, next generation of SiPh work.
Unsurprisingly, at Intel’s Datacentric Innovation Day, the firm mentioned SiPh only once, and there were no questions on it at all. At Juniper’s analyst briefing at OFC, Bikash Koley, declined to “quantity the size of [its SiPh] investment,” to provide “any volume numbers,” to get into cost differences with competitive offerings, or to really predict the timing for the arrival of 400-gig TXs. fibeReality also just picked up some intelligence that Juniper has had some technical difficulties, and unlike what was advertised at OFC, availability of the initial TXs could be delayed until the second half of this year.
At the same time, while there was the way-over-the-top rhetoric about “achiev[ing] the holy grail,” and that the present shift in activity happening at Juniper, in attempting to aggressively combine switches with optics, represents the biggest disruptor to pluggables, since the introduction of the VCSEL, there was no press release issued, and there was just a blog post, which was not well-advertised. If indeed Juniper has something that is “fully disruptive,” it probably would be making considerably more noise. It would have had the leverage even with the hyperscalers not to have to get into the 100G space at all -- and just wait to leapfrog directly into the 400G space (putting aside the windfall of other opportunities that would have resulted) -- in what could have been called from a PR standpoint, “a violation” of the laws of physics.
We are hearing pricing for a CWDM4 expected to be as low as $150 in late 2018, and so the ability for Juniper to compete on cost at 100G there, would seem to be a fantasy, to say the least. It would partially explain why Koley only discussed LR4s (also, this type of platform has been an area of focus for the ex-Aurrion engineers); however, unfortunately, a market which has declined dramatically (so, by definition, not “large volume”), and although it is at least conceivable to make some money in that space, if one presumes that the hyperscalers would be looking for a 50 percent discount on such components, we would still have doubts about this particular SiPh solution having achieved the necessary advancements to make that cost target a reality. Nevertheless, the good news for Juniper, as it has been in the past for Cisco, is that it is hard for a financial analyst to accurately estimate/disaggregate the manufacturing costs of optics for a large router corporation.
I have 2 theories
LWLG has been trying to solve the polymer problem for 15+ years. Always Oh-So-Close but not quite there. Wall Street Institutional Investors are notoriously risk averse so why not wait until LWLG actually proves their polymer thesis by way of a contract with a Tier 1 customer or something equivalent. This stock will not gap up on news of contract announcement that much with respect to market cap valuation ($1 = $100MM). Even if it did i contend they have tools to keep lid on stock price while they accumulate their positions. Waiting to buy takes risk off the table. Individuals here are early to the party and comfortable with said risk.
I think Lebby and Co believe they are sitting on a $Billion solution. Tier 1's they're negotiating/testing with may not see it that way. It takes 2 to tango and they both have to agree. More data confirming the validity of our solution should start to bridge the valuation gap between both sides. This is my answer to why LWLG hasn't been bought out or inked a partnership agreement
Who is buying???
We know the ever present LPC is out in the market on a daily basis selling their approx 40k+ shares. I wonder who is buying up all those shares between $.67-$.72 for the last month???? My spidey-senses are tingling telling me to buy some more
AAOI????
Thx Juenke, Your post is one of the reasons why i read this board every day!!!!