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where is everyone? I feel like I am all alone out here watching the EUR/USD behave like it is on steroids.
EUR/USD has started my morning off badly. Was up nicely from low 1.282s and then poof plummets to below 1.28 while I am looking at another screen. And there it goes right back up again AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH and now back down. What on earth is going on? Guess the Swiss have the markets in an uproar they eased more than expected I think, EUR/USD way down now. Three posts in one and still have minutes left lol Oh well at least I closed out for the 20 pip loss. Way down now. That would have hurt.
well glad I didn't kill a good nights sleep being long EUR/USD. GBP/JPY wow wish I had held that short all night,I entered a little after 5pm est, just above 135 closed it out 50 pips lower.
and out for a small loss. Not up for babysitting a trade. Catch everyone in the morning.
thinking about joining you not sure though. Oh wait you said ej I just went long e/u
congrats I know how you have been struggling.
did anyone else just see that? the USD?JPY dropped fast very suddenly, and took the crosses with it. Fat finger?
lol that's great, I saw that dive on the chart and figured you were making some good money. Those yen cross plays are really lucrative when the USD/JPY is moving in the same direction as whatever major pair you choose.
you are making a killing. Maybe I should just let you trade my money.
Question:
"Expect to see the 10-year gilt/Treasury and 10-year gilt/bund spreads
to move significantly into negative territory with the latter already turning
negative. "
Does this mean that the interest rates of the Gilts are going to be less than those of Bunds and Treasuries?
congrats!
It is almost there for you.
this all still confuses me but here is more info
15:59 EUR ECON: Credit Easing Vs Quantitative Easing Mar 11
Quantitative Easing is the new catchphrase. While the theory of QE rests on
a belief that in a fiat system you can always increase nominal spending and
inflation by reducing the value of the domestic currency relative to goods and
services. The global charge toward quantitative easing is one of the reasons why
some are now seeing gold and commodities in general as attractive investments.
The problem is that when you add in the ingredients of debt deflation,
synchronized global slowdown, and excessive reliance on the US consumer then the
required quantitative easing needs to be that much greater. Despite BoJ's
quantitative easing the inflation rates in Japan are far from being
uncontrollable with the latest data showing core-CPI at -0.2% y/y.
When the velocity of money is difficult to measure there is a problem of how
much quantitative easing should be done. Related to this issue is how to
effectively measure quantitative easing...do you look at money supply or spreads
on risky assets vs gilts? But beyond these issues there are the differences from
an implementation perspective or what Willem Buiter has termed quantitative
easing vs qualitative easing. The main difference being that the former involves
keeping the liquidity and risk profile of assets constant in the balance sheet
constant while the latter involves the purchase of risky and illiquid assets.
The BoE has chosen the largely walk on the road of quantitative easing while
the Fed has been more aggressive in pursuing qualitative easing (or credit
easing). Understandably the impact of the BoE's move has been greater on gilts
than the Fed and this has led to a sharp narrowing in the gilt/Treasury spread
and even the gilt/bund spread. However, one needs to question how effective the
BoE will be in their policy given that holders of gilts will have been doing so
for a reason -- risk aversion. If these holders do decide to sell their gilt
holdings (and that is a big 'if' given the way in which the non-competitive
auction went today) then it seems unlikely that they would be willing to put
BoE's electronic and newly created cash to work.
For now the fact is that the BoE has adopted a different approach and as
long as the Fed is still credit easing and the ECB looking into credit easing
the gilt purchases from the BoE should continue to help gilts over Treasuries
and bunds. Expect to see the 10-year gilt/Treasury and 10-year gilt/bund spreads
to move significantly into negative territory with the latter already turning
negative. divyang.shah@thomsonreuters.com
I just had a better to be lucky than smart moment. I was more than due.....
it is being driven by the GBP they started their quantatative easing today.
don't know but put me nicely in the plus for today. Still not where I wanted to be by today but not bad.
So by Wednesday mornings I want it to be easy, one big move that I have to do nothing around. Then I take small losses all in a row because the one big directional move isn't happening. Then I get over that I can cruise through the rest of the week and start trading again. Have recouped now today most of my morning losses.
Happy trails and enjoy the new house. I hear San Diego has perfect weather. And congrats on the the trade, your patience paid off.
I seem to be going against the board here again I am long at 1.2755. Having a terribe morning up until now and since my trade is still open no guarantees it improves.
EUR/USD just a yo-yo
oh that was a hasty retreat lol, grabbed about half the profit I had at the very short lived top there. I just realised it is the Tokyo fix since we changed the clocks.....
shoot, I am long.
well I figured that the title was worth the post even if people didn't watch the video. I only post links that do pertain to finance. The John Stewart thing was comedy as well but he made and excellent point, it mostly illustrated the incredible CNBC hype that never quit until it was too late and anyone that had made financial decisions of any sort based on their unbridled optimism and that of the people they interviewed - CEOs and the like - would have lost.
out already just scalping today.
seems like it. I am trying to be long USD/JPY
wholesale inventories show consumption is falling off the cliff, oil up, gold down, equities up mostly because of the CITI news but layoffs mounting. Strange day.
I used to get live checks in the mail from Wells Fargo on a regular basis, about once every two months. Loan offers, all I had to do was go to the bank and cash the check. IF the banks had not been busy offloading their toxic waste in the form of mbs they would not have been beating down everyone's door to refinance or take on more debt or buy more house than someone could really afford. And what they told people was buy the more expensive house in 3 years you can refinance. And if you had a family and could get that extra bedroom why wouldn't you? Now I am not saying we aren't overly consumptive we are and so there is a silver lining in this debacle because we were behaving in a way that was not environmentally sustainable, we think we have financial problems that are going to impact our kids, our environmental problems dwarf those. And it seems to me that the ordinary folk are the only ones having to face their mistakes and greed. They are losing their jobs and getting booted out of their homes, they are paying the piper. The guys at the top who played the pipe that led us into this mess?? no they are still trying to avoid explaining why they got and gave out million dollar bonuses after they got billions in oh our taxpayer dollars to prop them up.
sometimes you have to just not trade. IF you don't have a feel for things, I know for you that is even harder since you don't always have internet service, but when you don't have a feel for what is going on trading is very very hard. Looks like the good news out of CITI is USD negative.
It's John Stewart and not political you should watch it, it is very funny.
left to fix dinner was hoping to get back in a little lower than here lol.
got out got back in and then out again. It's so choppy, I had forgotten how I hate that.
in small on a geppy long at 136.06 trying to decide if I should add here at these higher levels.
17:57 AUD/JPY: Aussie And Mr. Buffet May Be Too Rich New York, March 9. The rails are getting clobbered and are pulling the Transports lower. The index is down 23 points. The three rails account for 16 of those points. Burlington Northern Santa Fe is the biggest drag on the index. The fact that Warren Buffet owns 11% of it makes the information interesting. Berkshire A shares are higher today but, with everything Buffet falling the last few days including GS, it almost appears that the market is going after the famed investor. His appearance on CNBC may draw even more attention to problem spots within his company.
AUD/JPY has tracked the transports lower. Initial JPY buying at the London fix started the move pushing AUD/JPY to clear bids at 62.35. For AUD/USD, 0.6308 is the low with more talk of the 0.6280 barrier and Asia bids. Given the sell off in transports and higher US yields, 0.6325 is relatively rich. Sub 0.6300 bids may win at the end of the day but 2 week Aussie puts are clearly favored from a value realization standpoint. Also, an AUD/JPY move below 62.35 should be targeted. Robert.Fullem@ThomsonReuters.com
that is one of his better no doubt, it made me laugh and sad all at the same time. All the people that should have seen this coming or had somnething to do with why we are here have decided -like little kids- to deflect attention fom how they failed, and blame falling markets on Obama policy instead of the awful state the economy and the businesses that make it up are in. Not that I love everything Obama is doing and I think a lot of those on his economic team are a big part of the problem, I was hoping for more real change, but it looks like the powers that be have him pretty much wrapped up tight under their control.
Volatile start to the week.
You are welcome.
FXCM must not be paying their Thomson/Reuters bill. This is getting ridiculous.
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