Making Marijuana Millionaires
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
SeekingAlpha earlier which seemed to give some volume to the stocks:
Senate Democrats likely to lay out case for marijuana legalization at Tuesday hearing
Just days after Senate Democrats introduced legislation that would legalize marijuana on the federal level, Senate Judiciary Committee subcommittee will hold a hearing the afternoon of July 25 to discuss it.
The Subcommittee on Criminal Justice and Counterterrorism will convene Tuesday at 230p ET with the hearing titled "Decriminalizing Cannabis at the Federal Level: Necessary Steps to Address Past Harms." The subcommittee is chaired by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).
Besides removing cannabis as a Schedule I controlled substance, the Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act (CAOA) would expunge prior federal marijuana convictions, allow states to set their own cannabis laws, and provide grants for marijuana small businesses.
The bill's introduction came just in advance of the Senate's August recess, which begins the end of the day on Aug. 5. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) had promised the introduction prior to the recess. The Senate won't be back in session until Sept. 6. That's important.
Democrats are likely to want to try and get the CAOA passed in advance of the mid-term elections on Nov. 8. Democrats are in danger of losing a majority in both the Senate and the House, and if that were to happen, CAOA wouldn't likely have a chance of passage -- at least as currently drafted.
The danger is much more significant in the House compared to the Senate, according to fivethirtyeight.com's Nate Silver. His current model shows Republicans having an 87% change of taking over the House, while the Senate is a toss-up.
So, Senate Democrats have a relatively brief period to negotiate with Republican counterparts -- and even some of their own members who need convincing -- to have a reasonable chance of seeing CAOA signed into law.
In all likelihood, Democrats will need 60 votes to have any chance of CAOA seeing the light of day. That's because Senate rules require 60 votes to first end debate on a bill before a vote on the bill itself can take place where only a simple majority is required.
The version of CAOA that will be debated is likely to be significantly different for this reason. Probably sticking points are provisions on criminal expungements, cannabis taxation, and preferential treatment for federal loans for cannabis businesses for those harmed under the nation's drug war.
Roth on 🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) July 25, 2022
"We view the ~$65B+ illicit market as the largest opportunity in the U.S. to convert to the regulated market as more states approve cannabis. pic.twitter.com/MHdPWtd0EE
Go LOWLF
California Cannabis Enforcement Efforts Help Protect People, the Environment, and the Legal Market
Department of Cannabis Control slated to seize $1 Billion worth of illegal cannabis product
Santos said. “We don’t really look at our retail footprint as where we’re going to grow. We look more on the wholesale side.”
The company acts like a partner using its own stores to promote the brands of its partners while focusing on the wholesale and distribution side of the cannabis equation. Brands come over with their own brand architecture and TILT works with them to see what has to change to keep abreast of regulations. “It could be packaging, formulation, or form factor,” Santo said.
“What we do at TILT is basically give you the run of our cannabis assets. So we have facilities in Massachusetts, in Pennsylvania, in Ohio, soon-to-be in New York, where we’re able to provide the plant itself, operations, and also access to our entire sales team.”
An initial strategy used by many MSOs is to go out and buy brands. “The problem there is that it’s expensive to buy them, it’s expensive to maintain them, and you don’t always know if that brand is going to be that winning brand,” Santo explained.
If you havent read the Seaport Global outlook for cannabis ( Read It) Sonny Randhawa has been on Business Insider's "10 Best Stock Pickers" list twice in the last 6 years.
I actually follow this site because his Market caps adjust daily,,, i realize that he probably doesnt track dispensary count to well. Either way it does put in perspective how out of whack market caps are for the less well known MSO's. We are coiled up with mega potential
https://mjstocktrader.com/cannabis-investor-portal/
# of Dispensaries
Trulieve TCNNF 169
Curaleaf CURLF 130
Verano VRNOF 102
Columbia Care CCHWF 84
Green Thumb GTBIF 74
AYR Wellness AYRWF 72
Parallel (Private) 48
Cresco Labs CRLBF 49
Jushi JUSHF 33
Acreage ACRHF 30
Schwazze SHWZ 29
Cansortium CNTMF 29
iAnthus Captial ITHUF 28
Terrascend TRSSF 26
MedMen MMNFF 24
Ascend Wellness AAWH 23
Goodness Growth GDNSF 18
Captor CPTR 9
Red, White & Bloom RWBYF 9
Harborside HBORF 6
4Front Ventures FFNTF 6
MariMed MRMD 6
Body and Mind BMMJ 5
Planet 13 PLNHF 5
The Parent Company GRAMF 4
Glass House Brands GLASF 4
C21 Investments CXXIF 3
Vext Science VEXTF 2
Tilt Holdings TLLTF 2
Halo Collective HCANF 1
When you look at most cannabis stocks, the downside move potential is so incrementally small at this point that the most rational expectation is a move back upward, shorting these stocks is coming to an end , and when they are forced to cover to get out, along with any new surge in buying, the coiled spring back upward could be too swift for them to get out in any calculated manner. currently daily volumes are not high enough. The shorts guys will get hammered
Seaport Initiates Coverage of US Cannabis Sector, Says Industry Going Through ''Bottoming Process''
BY MT Newswires
— 9:29 AM ET 07/22/2022
09:29 AM EDT, 07/22/2022 (MT Newswires) -- Seaport Research Partners is initiating coverage of the US Cannabis sector with Buy ratings on Ascend Wellness Holdings (AAWH-US.CSE) Ayr Wellness (AYR-A.CSE), Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) , Jushi Holdings (JUSHF) TerrAscend Corp (TRSSF) , Trilieve Cannabis (TRUL.CSE) and Verano Holdings (VRNOF) .
"We believe the group is going through a bottoming process and will be higher six months from now on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P500 and amongst the best performing sectors over the next three to five years. We would buy the group today and use any market induced volatility to increase exposure," writes analyst Sonny Randhawa. He believes that the sector is "grossly misunderstood" by the analyst community and plagued by an "incessant amount of noise" from Washington. Seaport sees the sector growing at a CAGR of 17% and anticipates the US legal market to be US$86 billion in 2030 and the overall market at US$140 billion, including illicit.
Bottom line -- "The sector is governed by capital availability, and we are approaching the bottom for the 2021 capital cycle with multiples compressed, debt capital constrained, and capacity leaving the market. If there was ever a time to buy over the last 18 months, we believe it's today."
Highlights:
In a high inflation rising interest rate environment, short duration (high margin) value names typically outperform. But couple short duration with a consumer staple that is growing at a projected 17% CAGR through 2030, cannabis should be moving up your list, says Randhawa. Top that off with a highly fragmented market that is starving for capital and seeing capacity leave the market you would likely agree with us that this is the right time to get involved, he adds.
The cannabis market is governed by capital availability to build capacity to meet expectations for the size of the total addressable market, or TAM. Revenue multiples expand or contract to attract or deter capital (i.e. future capacity) from entering the market. The first cycle happened in 2019 with Canadian legalization and the second in early 2021 on investor optimism after the 2020 elections "Blue Wave". Seaport expects multiples to begin increasing again as tight capital slows down capacity additions and lower valuations fuel buy vs build discussions. "We see this as a very attractive backdrop for our coverage universe and the three-to-five-year outlook for the group is much more bullish today than it was at any time during its history."
With just about everything experiencing inflation, cannabis is not expected to be immune on the cost front. Still, margins are likely to be less impacted as the pace of wholesale pricing declines will also slow (wholesale pricing comes down as markets mature). In addition, with budgets constrained, the brokerage believes new customer penetration rates could accelerate as consumers spend more time at home and the "bang-per-buck" for cannabis vs alcohol keeps moving higher.
With capital constrained and multiples coming in, the M&A market is becoming more attractive every day. Companies that have the financing to pull the trigger today could be big winners for the next decade.
Federal legalization will be beneficial for the industry, however, given the divide in Washington there doesn't appear to be a path forward for any of the proposed bills other than a streamlined version of the Safe Act. Even if federal legalization happened tomorrow, Randhawa anticipates interstate commerce (IC) won't happen until there is no illicit market in the US, like alcohol and tobacco.
No i wasnt hoping ,,,,, but its still a possibility
Here is what Cantor Fitz is saying
Pablo @ Cantor
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) July 21, 2022
🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿 pic.twitter.com/NqLEbfHs9U
This sucks
The bill is not passable for a lot of reasons, one is it punishes bigger cannabis companies with twice the tax. Schumer knows this won’t be acceptable to the GOP or the industry and put this poison pill in it.
The CAOA is not passable for a lot of reasons, one is it punishes bigger cannabis companies with twice the tax. Schumer knows this won’t be acceptable to the GOP or the industry and put this poison pill in it. pic.twitter.com/Y4aO5rUAgr
— MJ Stock Trader (@stock_mj) July 21, 2022
I actually thinks stocks are running cause the ETF MSOS is buying up the big name Mso's and all the others are getting caught up in it , but as soon as they spend there cash its gunna settle down
Happening now at the Us Capitol
“Committed to a bipartisan pathway forward.”
Rep Dave Joyce (R-OH)
“Committed to a bipartisan pathway forward.”
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) July 20, 2022
Rep Dave Joyce (R-OH)
🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿 pic.twitter.com/3aWQXql6Rg
On the link i posted to twitter in the prior post there is a guy who commented,,,,,,,,,I seem to be the only person who saw the CEO of Verano tweet a pic of himself at the NYSE with an #uplisting and then quickly delete it. I think that was very telling.
Marijuana Banking Bill likely to pass according to bloomberg
BBI on 🇺🇸 #cannabis 🌿 pic.twitter.com/3WpE3ou7j1
— Todd Harrison (@todd_harrison) July 19, 2022
Doc , that was me i sold out of my Columbia Care in my non retirement , i decided to average down my Shwz holdings , I am loaded with it already ,but 1dollar is still a steal .
Congress brokering deal to help legal marijuana industry by easing banking rules
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jul/19/democrats-see-opening-squeeze-marijuana-legislatio/
Viridian Capital Advisors this morning
The potential for 75% stock price gains on the SAFE Act passage is not fantasy. The Act would significantly increase the liquidity of cannabis stocks by allowing banks to provide custodial services for cannabis equities. Similarly, the major exchanges might feel emboldened to enable the up-listing of cannabis stocks. The resulting inpouring of institutional cash would likely boost cannabis multiples back to the 12x EBITDA levels they carried in late 2021
Jefferies Equity research on on cannabis last Friday
"We are increasingly optimistic there will be some kind of cannabis reform before year-end that could lead to capital market protections, uplistings and institutional investment."
So far if you read the financials the Lic model is producing 750,000 k to1 mill per quarter for out of state Lic agreement , the current agreement with Ascend is 2 states with a 3rd coming on, The we get revenue Schwazze ramping of Col and NM later 2022 or early 2023 . that should produce when fully built out at least 2 mil per quarter and thats only 5 states . I know its a long way off and lots can happen but this is huge money once they get this model ramped up
I also want to add that the relationships they are developing with other MSO's around the country ,,,recently SHWZ ( Starbuds in Co and R-Greenleaf in NM) they have a relationship Ascend wellness, AWH retail locations in Massachusetts and Illinois via a strategic licensing agreement. Michigan upcoming later this year as well i anticipate that revenue at least doubling to 2 mil per quarter if not more by year end and only increasing over time as more states come on, This is really huge margins
https://littlebeachharvest.com/
Check out the Architectural Rendering for the Dispensary & Wellness Lounge in the Hamptons, the partnership is with the shinecock indians
Lowell's Q1 cash flow from operations was negative ($900k). They'll save $1.5M a quarter in cultivation tax now that it's been wiped out, so just right there that's enough to turn them positive on cash flow from operations. That's before any benefit from no longer paying a 15% tax on distributed goods and any impact from increased CPG revenue due to the expansion of the Lowell line into different flower offerings (like the quarters of big buds), carts, and concentrates. They have the capacity to handle the added CPG revenue by diverting flower that they would have sold wholesale, so margins will expand as they make more efficient use of their facilities.
Its a wonderful game ,,, i intend to get a castle on the beach with my winnings
The Act of Observation is the Act of Fact Creation,,,, Nothing to see here but weak minded , weak handed individuals dumping there small quantity of shares ... Fear is being stoked by weaklings commenting constantly...Either you believe in SHWZ or you Dont .
I agree with you, i just noticed he reposted alot of recent articles pointing to huge perceived negatives like;
Weed users nearly 25% more likely to need emergency care and hospitalization
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/27/health/marijuana-emergencies-hospitalization-study-wellness/index.html
or
“[marijuana] can have potentially harmful effects — especially for young people… despite these dangers, the potency of the products currently on the market is largely unregulated.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/23/well/mind/teens-thc-cannabis.html
The synopsis i got from the post after doing a little more research is ,,,,,This is the beginning of a slew of negative hits about ready hit the already decimated stocks, ( i suppose this is to be expected) I researched the author of that post and he appears to be be very anti-cannabis , Many of his and other peoples other posts show a recent much wider net of anti-cannabis articles about ,, increased hosptilizations , to how the Mj industry has widely created the myth that cannabis is healthy for you, etc etc .
Timing sucks but ,its obvious that this whole downturn is trying to suck the wind out of the retail investors , and then when the legislation to uplist or safe banking gets ready to pass ,,, they swoop in and grab all our cheap shares ...
Diamond Hands .......
@megzoo you have bad intel behind your posting these are poorly run companies
Founded in 2017, Veritas was an early branded,(not early at all) stand-alone growing operation in the state
The company previously grew marijuana for Cookies, one of legal marijuana's largest marijuana brands, but the two are no longer partners,according to both companies.
Doc, my thoughts ... while banking and removing 280E are a big deal for the industry, The best case would be uplisting to big exchanges ,,, this will drive stocks even more than the safe act . Stocks will no doubt hit Nickel and Dime Baggers (5 -10x) likely even multiples to 15 -20x could be possible upon real listing
Doc , I would be happy if it bottoms out here @ $1.20 , if not I will keep loading up these incredibly cheap price's
Another day and another pile of red across the markets most cannabis stocks have been at 52 week lows , even for many non cannabis major corporations. Every message board has doom and gloom. 70% of the economists are forecasting a recession since the inflation seems to continue unabated. Many of us here are exhausted, but let's be very clear. The fundamentals for many of the companies are strong, many had back to back quarters with rising revenue, except the 1st quarter of 2022 , many have declining costs and many have improving margins. It most certainly would be nice if we had a crystal ball on the low ,But we don't ....Gonna keep on buying this at these lows i am 100% confident in our Leader.
We're watching a classic market meltdown - but stock prices do not reflect operational performance - they reflect fear or exuberance. We'd love to see the stock prices trend with performance and in the long run they do, but in the short run - this broader bear market is brutal and we cannot escape that. When you can buy a SHWZ at this low its hard to resist.
Many of these Cannabis companies aren't underperforming, but fear causes people to dump their holdings and run for cover. If you can't control your emotions, you lose in the markets. If you review the fundamentals of a company every quarter and make a buy/sell/hold decision based on that (and NOT the stock price) then you'll be fine. Panic makes everyone else wealth - I hate seeing so much red, but we have lived through booms and busts alike - this one is merely the latest and in the future it'll just be another dip in the long range charts. Good luck to you all.
Good Marketing piece for our newest Brand Lowell Farms https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/us/california-weed-cafes.html
This isnt totally relevant to this thread but it is intersting that in Florida they can transfer weed between each other nothing spefic to CC or CL but just food for thought
https://www.reddit.com/r/FLMedicalTrees/comments/v5ijee/the_state_has_301_pages_of_records_relating_to/
I follow alot of cannabis stocks and almost all of them closed higher then the VWAP , but Shwz closed @1.31 but the VWAP was 1.34,,, Oh well ..over the next few months i am gonna be buy the shiznitz out of tier 2 and 3 Mj stocks SHWZ ,TILT and LOWLF
GAME ON
So excited. #Weedinnovation pic.twitter.com/7gu2lLnihD
— George Allen (@G4Geronimo) May 24, 2022
More on the Virtual Conference today with Virdian
Justin Dye stuck to the similar theme , that there is an incredible opportunity in New Mexico and in Colorado .
In Colorado for example he likes the fact that there are very mature operators that are very technical in nature, these dispensaries are typically very savvy operators . They typically have multiple reasons for also wanting to exit the business , typically because they're exhausted ,it's basically a 24/7 operation to run a dispensary. He sees a lot of opportunity for the ones that want more opportunity to also take the ride as the stock improves with a publicly traded company.
Rather than opening up a new market you have a very established one in Colorado with known metrics, with many of these operators have learned from the burn from years of effort.
I'm starting to think he might have one of the better MSO strategies ,,, he's not going through the mega churn and burn cash that the typical multi-state operators go through , they are very spread out are being that we are very concentrated and Colorado New Mexico J D says we can get a lot more done with his staff rather than spreading the resources out.
He basically alluded to the fact that his operators on the ground and Colorado and New Mexico are constantly building relationships going out to dinner attending local events with a lot of the dispensary owners and cultivating opportunities for SHWZ to grow.
He believes the share price will be in the mid-teens as soon as we get some safe banking
I got so excited at the end the interview with Viridian that I snagged up 11,000 more shares today at 1.45
I am still not discouraged even though I started buying Swhz when it was $3.
I've been to plenty of conferences when Brett Roper was the CEO, and then when Andy took over for a little while.
JD is my favorite by far, I had already been into it by the time he came along and i believe he saved me a ton of money in the long run although at the moment I'm incredibly upside down as 11,000 shares is just a drop in the bucket of the amount that I've ultimately bought.
Good luck to all of you. And try to find that interview if you can if I find the link I'll post it