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PDB, your referenced info is not correct regarding what has been reported by PPHM and filed with the SEC about the CRO miscoding discovered for that Phase 2, double blinded with placebo trial. That might explain the random nature of your conclusory statements, I suppose. Enough said on that.
Regarding the CSM lawsuit, a year is not much time in the litigation world regardless, but to assign a judgment of outcome based on presumptions drawn from how long since a complaint has been filed is.... Presumptuous, LOL!
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Considering the very positive outlook projected by EBS, Genecloner and others, my history of a dozen years invested in TCLN/PPHM kicks in with a wary eye. Why? Because this is PPHM! May the roller coaster begin again...
Thank you all for sharing your insights.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Good morning Wwtmm,
I see this week as an interesting "arm wrestle" between those who write options and the expectations for pps to climb due to "hopium" related demand. $2 call options are currently (posted below) in the money enough that there will be a modest payout relative to what a party may have paid to acquire them. That is rare, as in the past, we have seen the pps move to make options worthless. Sad, but ....
As I understand it, options and their change in value around September 21, 2012, are what underlies the soon to be dismissed? Class action suit.
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Calls Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int Root Strike Puts Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
March 2014
Mar 22, 2014 1.25 1.10 1.35 0 21 PPHM 1.00 Mar 22, 2014 0.20 0
Mar 22, 2014 0.35 0.05 0.35 0.40 25 4191 PPHM 2.00 Mar 22, 2014 0.05 -0.05 0.05 0.10 0 584
Mar 22, 2014 0.05 0.10 21 4892 PPHM 3.00 Mar 22, 2014 0.75 0.65 0.95 0 667
Mar 22, 2014 0.01 0.05 0 515 PPHM 4.00 Mar 22, 2014 1.55 1.65 1.90 0 20
Mar 22, 2014 0.04 0.15 0 749 PPHM 5.00 Mar 22, 2014 2.25 2.60 2.95 0 28
Mar 22, 2014 0.05 0.20 0 77 PPHM 6.00 Mar 22, 2014 3.60 4.00 0
April 2014
Apr 19, 2014 1.30 1.65 1.85 0 10 PPHM 0.50 Apr 19, 2014 0.20 0
Apr 19, 2014 1.15 -0.05 1.20 1.35 49 711 PPHM 1.00 Apr 19, 2014 0.02 0.20 0 42
Apr 19, 2014 0.80 0.65 0.90 0 2423 PPHM 1.50 Apr 19, 2014 0.09 0.10 0 914
Apr 19, 2014 0.45 0.05 0.45 0.50 125 4580 PPHM 2.00 Apr 19, 2014 0.20 0.15 0.30 10 467
Apr 19, 2014 0.26 0.01 0.20 0.30 35 2327 PPHM 2.50 Apr 19, 2014 0.50 0.45 0.50 50 278
Apr 19, 2014 0.15 0.15 0.20 50 2550 PPHM 3.00 Apr 19, 2014 1.00 0.80 1.00 0 15
Apr 19, 2014 0.10 0.15 0 702 PPHM 4.00 Apr 19, 2014 1.30 1.70 2.00 0 173
Apr 19, 2014 0.05 0.15 0 485 PPHM 5.00 Apr 19, 2014 2.35 2.60 3.00 0 20
Apr 19, 2014 0.16 0.20 0 713 PPHM 6.00 Apr 19, 2014 3.40 3.60 4.00 0 57
July 2014
Jul 19, 2014 1.25 -0.01 1.25 1.40 0 2357 PPHM 1.00 Jul 19, 2014 0.10 0.20 0 103
Jul 19, 2014 0.66 0.06 0.60 0.75 20 4571 PPHM 2.00 Jul 19, 2014 0.45 -0.05 0.35 0.45 21 1158
Jul 19, 2014 0.35 -0.10 0.30 0.45 30 2303 PPHM 3.00 Jul 19, 2014 1.10 1.05 1.25 0 64
Jul 19, 2014 0.22 0.02 0.20 0.30 21 580 PPHM 4.00 Jul 19, 2014 1.90 2.15 0
Jul 19, 2014 0.25 0.05 0.20 0 379 PPHM 5.00 Jul 19, 2014 2.80 3.10 0
Jul 19, 2014 0.20 0.10 0.25 0 582 PPHM 6.00 Jul 19, 2014 3.70 4.10 0
October 2014
Oct 18, 2014 1.50 1.20 1.50 0 381 PPHM 1.00 Oct 18, 2014 0.10 0.05 0.25 0 25
Oct 18, 2014 1.05 0.80 0.95 0 397 PPHM 2.00 Oct 18, 2014 0.60 0.50 0.60 0 478
Oct 18, 2014 0.53 0.01 0.50 0.55 50 697 PPHM 3.00 Oct 18, 2014 1.25 1.20 1.50 0 135
Oct 18, 2014 0.39 -0.01 0.30 0.55 10 154 PPHM 4.00 Oct 18, 2014 2.05 2.35 0
Oct 18, 2014 0.55 0.20 0.45 0 126 PPHM 5.00 Oct 18, 2014 2.85 2.95 3.30 0 20
Oct 18, 2014 0.60 0.15 0.40 0 40 PPHM 6.00 Oct 18, 2014 3.80 4.20 0
November 2014
Nov 22, 2014 1.45 1.20 1.55 0 5 PPHM 1.00 Nov 22, 2014 0.05 0.25 0
Nov 22, 2014 1.00 0.70 1.00 0 120 PPHM 2.00 Nov 22, 2014 0.55 0.75 0
Nov 22, 2014 0.45 0.70 0 PPHM 3.00 Nov 22, 2014 1.25 1.50 0
Nov 22, 2014 0.70 0.35 0.55 0 3 PPHM 4.00 Nov 22, 2014 2.10 2.40 0
Nov 22, 2014 0.45 0.25 0.50 0 21 PPHM 5.00 Nov 22, 2014 3.00 3.30 0
December 2014
Dec 20, 2014 1.38 -0.32 1.35 1.55 5 25 PPHM 1.00 Dec 20, 2014 0.18 0.15 0.20 0 10
Dec 20, 2014 0.65 1.05 0 PPHM 2.00 Dec 20, 2014 0.63 0.55 0.85 0 5
Dec 20, 2014 0.80 0.60 0.80 0 34 PPHM 3.00 Dec 20, 2014 1.30 1.60 0
Dec 20, 2014 0.50 0.30 0.65 0 5 PPHM 4.00 Dec 20, 2014 2.15 2.45 0
Dec 20, 2014 0.25 0.55 0 PPHM 5.00 Dec 20, 2014 3.00 3.40 0
Dec 20, 2014 0.40 0.15 0.50 30 1 PPHM 7.00 Dec 20, 2014 4.70 5.50 0
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/pphm/option-chain#ixzz2w8HGmKA1
Bungler, very nice. Thank you.
KT
Thank you Bungler. Would it be inconvenient to give a reference so new entrants can be at peace about their patent expiration concerns?
KT
Gene, wow! Was that second or third hand info or a reliable source?
There has been lots of partnering speculation, heightened since the pps run up going into September 2012.
KT
Gene, your questions about the patents need data particular for the patent in question. There is more than one patent involved for PPHM.
That link you provided was helpful, since it highlighted on the FDA page some differences between patents and FDA exclusive marketing rights.
I am not concerned about. PPHM patents or exclusivity, direct or assigned. Patents carry duration for time adequate for delivering PPHM share holder value.
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Gene, the patent time clock hasn't started yet, per some earlier discussion on this. My recollection is that the clock starts when there is a commercial product approval.
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Dia, we now know that PPHM let it be known that they were shifting resources to prioritize development of Dr. Thorpe's anti PS technology around the timing when they agreed to let Dr. Epstein pursue the TNT applications with his Cancer Therapeutics Laboratories company in China. Call that just over a decade ago. The significance of Bavi and the CTL lawsuit didn't get communicated to retail investors until a bit later, perhaps not even yet, LOL!
I always find it interesting when irrelevant information is referenced to confound today's investment valuation understanding. For what purpose...
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Golfho, With the standard disclaimer about my not being a risk management expert, I find your risk weighted one chance out of six for success analysis worthy of a refinement. The refinement addresses how PPHM has multiple treatment (different anti-cancer and anti-viral) trials exhibiting the early success indicators warranting some future valuation characterization.
A risk portrayal concept that I have seen practiced assigns chance of success for a concept into a bell shaped curve plotted on an X and Y axis. The current or future valuation range is on the x axis and probability that the outcome will deliver that valuation is the scale for the Y axis. If a company is looking at prospective market capitalization, each of its business plan ventures can be translated into this bell shaped curve format, establishing its activities unique risk profile. However, when risk for achieving overall company valuation targets is assessed, the company with multiple "irons in the fire" would have the bell shaped curves for each unique venture overlaid with the others, presenting a consolidated risk profile. Per risk management techniques, if the individual risk profiles are independent of each other, meaning that one external event doesn't effect them all, the company that has multiple business ventures underway exhibits a much lower risk for not achieving at least some of its targets than a company dependent on a single venture for success.
Skipping the weighting techniques for consolidating the risks for simplicity, a company with a large quantity of independent ventures carrying a one out of six chance for success would have much less risk for being left with a zero valuation outcome than a company with just one venture.
Consider assigning this approach to rationale that tells an investor that it is wise to diversify their portfolio to reduce the risk of loss of principal (a generally accepted practice). Compared to a single company in a portfolio, assembling a portfolio of investment changes the risk reward balance so it is much less likely that an investor will "lose it all" or conversely, that targeted gains can be achieved. That is why investing in a stock index fund is riskier than investment in a single stock that might be carried in the fund. A stock fund can drop in value significantly when macro economic factors affect all stocks, but risk if investment failure is hedged.
Analogies are never perfect, but I observe that the PPHM technology for anti-PS treatments has multiple applications and multiple products diversified sufficiently amongst different trials so that the risk of PPHM failure is much diminished from the sort of single trial outcome characterizations to which P
PHM was vulnerable to a few years ago. Results for additional ISTs and trials are coming in, fortifying the diversity of both results for single treatment applications and results for different, independently affected treatments (e.g. Anti-cancer applications are unique from anti-viral are unique from imaging applications). PPHM and interested Pharma are now seeing the array of what PPHM has accomplished and can assign weighted valuation considering risk. Month by month, that array is getting larger, as PPHM broadens its activities of the like we are seeing reported on this month at conferences.
The key value changer that is needed to resolve fundamental PPHM company valuation, per my observation, is whether PPHM will need to move its technology to commercial use without a partner or does PPHM get to grow their intellectual property aided by the financial and intellectual resources of a partner. A partner can choose to withhold their participation until an acceptable agreement is reached as can PPHM. However, applying more resources via partnering should accelerate the timeline to and extent of commercial success, just as rewards must be shared by more parties.
I see PPHM valuation in a go it alone risk context having greatly improved since PPHM announced it has $80 million in cash as of the end of February, sufficient to go solo with the FDA approved trial design for a Phase 3 NSCLC trial. PPHM's valuation will be revisited when interim Phase 3 trial results come in, with favorable results writing that 1/6th probability of commercial success into a much more favorable balance. Enough on this, as I presume you caught the key points here.
Have you worked in consideration of the portfolio of treatments for PPHM into your valuation base when discounting for risk and time? Which PPHM activities would you rate as independent for enhancing value and writing down risk?
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Geo, "taking out someone's garbage", LOL!? I see the valuation approach Unemon shared is interesting because it brings home the calculation by which future potential can be translated back to current valuation. We can all choose our own assumptions to work the concept.
I don't know whether PPHM has an Advanced Approval in its future. Comparing with a company that also hasn't achieved an AA but granting them the benefit of the doubt for value as if they will get it but not so for PPHM is just an example of different assumptions for working the valuation projections. It is up to PPHM to show an interested Pharma what should be the right input assumptions. We can only guess.
My assumption with PPHM is that measures have been implemented by external parties to keep the pps depressed until a deal is announced. We can definitely observe that something significant is positioning for change in PPHM's market cap because half the outstanding shares recently traded in three consecutive trading days, raising the pps about a buck in the process. Directionally, that indicates whoever was involved with that large volume share exchange was willing to pay a premium, which is bullish for PPHM prospects.
I still have my shares through this "Retail investor gauntlet" and have picked up more shares since the Reverse Split so that I have a bit better than the same proportion of outstanding shares in my portfolio now as I did then. Notably, PPHM valuation is now hovering around the threshold where more cost averaging purchases of shares will increase my average $ per share cost basis rather than reduce it. Considering how this timing (around now) is the first time since I initiated a position in TCLN/PPHM about a dozen years ago that buying more shares will increase my average cost basis, it is reasonable for me, at least, to project that PPHM is near an inflection point for delivery on their business plan and related release of share holder value. If the pps reverts down some more, I might find it will again improve my cost basis to buy more shares, but I already have accumulated my investment objective quantity of PPHM shares. What to do, what to do.... LOL!
Considering how there seems to be bear raids or similar measures taken to suppress the pps whenever posters on this board seem to be getting the most excited about PPHM prospects, I suppose the underlying theme is to continue to patiently wait for PPHM to deliver. It seems like good results should be a 2014 delivery, but it may take longer, since we can presume that a go it alone outcome for PPHM's Phase 3 NSCLC Bavi trial should start showing interim results later in 2014 or early 2015. Other PPHM developments could move the pps at any time.
In fact, something recently did move the pps up. Enough that call options are set to deliver a little gain relative to those purchased a month or two back, which is another rare status for PPHM trading. I picked up a few call options, for curiosity sake mostly, and plan on holding them until they are ripe. It is telling that the spread between bid and ask for $2 call options widened to $0.25 when normal might run around a dime spread. Writers of options appear to be attempting to trim back their payout in advance of... .???
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Unemon, thanks for sharing your ideas about valuation. You raise some interesting angles that this board might want to explore.
A factor I consider is how other Pharma that had developed their intellectual property with parallels to PPHM experienced pps appreciation. Tracking how these companies behaved in realizing share holder value demonstrated a "rags to riches" trend that affirmed how pps was depressed until deals were actually announced. Once the external validation occurred, the market capitalization of these companies moved to the $7 to $11 billion rather quickly, as in six to twelve months. All for products demonstrating less potential than PPHM's anti-PS platform.
A positive development for PPHM was the entry of Ken Dart with an announced 5%, SEC reportable position in PPHM. Yet we long investors who carried through that period experienced a bear attack and depressed pps, after which the entry of this investor became known. We now have seen 72 million shares trade in two trading days (many millions more with ensuing trading) with a net improvement in market capitalization of about $150 million. Who entered with a position in PPHM this time around? What other explanation would apply.
I can go on with how the pps walked up with a for fold + gain from "depressed" levels in advance of September 2012 news and reverted in a few minutes of pre market trading upon announcement of discovered miscoding of trial dosing at the CRO managing a critical double blinded with placebo FDA "gold standard" designed trial.
The table you shared is interesting and seems most applicable for when disclosure of information is complete for review by both a willing buyer and willing seller for products with reasonably known characteristics for marketing success. That sort of dynamic doesn't exist for PPHM nor for the biotechs over the last several years that demonstrated realized shareholder valuation in much quicker time lines.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Not bob, are you asking about worth projections so prospective Pharma partners can establish a sense of what they may need to offer, LOL!
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Unemon, I was presuming that the "currently enrolled" count includes both those that started treatment and those that have not received the first dose yet, but are preparing for treatment. It is open to interpretation, so the count could include deceased and lost contact. I would presume that calling out the longest on treatment patient is meaningful for survival. If there were a cluster of new recruits, how could the count be figured without more information?
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
NH, my condolences about your brother's death. My brother in law passed away from what initiated as prostate cancer that spread and took him about a year ago. One hope is that the targeting MABs like those being developed by PPHM will make a difference sooner rather than later. That is another aspect of hopium that cannot be measured in $$$.
KT
Dia, regarding today's pre market news, I like the confirmation that dosing has started in the Phase 3 NSCLC trial, affirmation that Avid is bringing in high side revenues for their fiscal year estimate, ($18 to $22 million), the liver cancer trial results to be reported soon and how PPHM finished February wit about $80 million in cash.
There is a lot to like.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
PDB, what profits? This movement is just returning PPHM trading back into the low side of the trading range after the reverse split. That is when larger short positions and movement surrounding Russell rebalancing weighed in. Those effects still need to be expunged. Profits are yet to be realized as PPHM moves along with its business plan.
I am watching for another tranche of preferred shares to be issued with a higher conversion price. Something like $5+ pps. That would give PPHM funding for more trial starts to supplement the ongoing NSCLC Phase 3 trial.
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Straight to the point Entdoc. Nice newbie summary.
What can one say about trading like today, but remind folks that the recent PPHM issue of preferred stock has a $3 pps basis for conversion to common shares? Once PPHM delivers or delivered news of achieving milestones of demonstrated tech performance, one might project that the $3 conversion price helps provide a base valuation for the common. Perhaps, the Cowen conference or ? Brought that understanding out amongst a group of investors with sufficient resources to harvest the value laying on the table while pps was trading below $2?
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
About gaps being filled, if the gap was created through pre market trading, why would such a gap need to be filled? If it does in such cases, it calls to question the validity of pre market trading in the event that any stops go unexecuted.
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Genecloner, why are you concerned about the ATM? PPHM used that and the recent preferred shares placement to establish funding for the ongoing Phase 3 NSCLC trial, which now has about a dozen trial sites announced--- and climbing. Plus funding for other operations, placing available cash at over $80 million. if the pps is up trending and PPHM is fortifying its financial strength in the process, the resource just serves to strengthen PPHM's hand in partnering negotiations. If there is a partner in the wings, the funds will enable other trials initiated by PPHM to proceed. If not, PPHM needs the funds to support business plan progress. Either way should be useful for long investors.
As many have posted, the "train has left the station" for PPHM. Perhaps, the train will go nowhere if trial results disappoint but there can be expected that there will be shouting at the station from those who didn't or don't want others to get on the train such that it will be carrying more momentum towards itse destination, wherever PPHM is going, LoL.
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Genecloner. And so it starts...Again, LOL. An example of history repeating itself?
For the sake of new posters to this board, I expect those with more time invested will be glad to bring forward the trending of previous calls for PPHM leadership change. For example, calls for new leadership appear to align with timing of PPHM meeting announcements and anticipated delivery of PPHM business plan milestones. And the response continues to be a reminder about how negotiations are underway and how leadership change and cheap options banter serve to distract from focus on PPHM progress. That is all part of the substance behind caution against retail investor naïveté that CP and I had posted about last weekend. PPHM has been and continues to be a very high risk investment.
Good luck with your PPHM investment.
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
PhoenixRising, I can relate to your comment about how the inquiries seeking to determine IDs of share holders is disturbing. I would sum the dynamic up as being a reminder to PPHM investors to not be "naive" about the current dynamics in play with various stake holder interests positioning around the implementation of any PPHM business plan.
I am wondering what difference it would make if the world knows the nature and size of my PPHM investment? I have already shared on this board how I bought initial shares over a decade ago at a much higher price in conjunction with that earlier run up to a post split equivalent to over $80 pps. I have been cost average improvement investing for years and have now built up a position that dominates my retirement investment portfolio, but is still relatively small in terms of what, from my point of view, carries much relevance for power brokering that might transpire if a party wished to partner, buy out or obstruct PPHM.
That said, I also recognize that I and some other long Retail investors who shared their investment situation on this board likely delivered the life line investing that allowed PPHM to weather through what I view as various assaults against the long term viability of PPHM the company. Considering those I care about that can benefit from Commercialization and delivery of the promising treatments brought forward by Dr. Thorpe's team and nurtured along by PPHM trials, retail investors have something to feel good about, even if PPHM investment value goes "plop". I consider a plop as being less likely now than pre September 2012, but surprises are always a possibility.
Finally, I recognize that my PPHM cost basis is likely higher, perhaps much higher, than that of more recent retail investor entrants. Consequently, there are likely much different expectations for what would be a satisfactory return from my decade plus of position building and holding compared to entrants at the $1 pps range investment that parties could have established after the September 21, 2012 pps crush that we experienced when PPHM announced that there had been discovery of miscoding of trial doses at the CRO for a critical Bavi trial.
My own point of view is that the miscoding event, regardless of the intent of the party that enacted it or enabled it, should receive little consideration with establishing the share holder value of PPHM the company, once the true technical performance from trials and PPHM technology value becomes public knowledge. If PPHM achieves treatments approved for commercial use or is positioned for likely achievement of same, treatments supporting valuation for a $7+ billion market cap company should deliver shareholder value reflected in the pps accordingly. If PPHM tech fails to deliver, investors should know that outcome would also be reflected in share price. What is the PPHM proper market cap, post Phase 3 trial results and post FDA decisions for commercial approval for PPHM tech? Investors should start that discovery process "soon" LOL!
Finally, why would any one care to know who I am, where I live and how many shares I own other than for "nosiness" or for investment advantaging mischief that I might enable by being naive about the handling of my investment?
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Corporalagarn, PPHM was indicating just under $80 million when the ATM funds were reported. The preferred shares delivered just under $20 million with the 10% allotment consumed for over subscription and my understanding is the preferred funds are additive. That rounds off to just under $100 million. These are "about" numbers. $80 million is still enough to support the Phase 3 trial, but FWIW, $100 million is my rough estimate before deducting funds consumed for doing the trial. Do you think the $80 million already included the preferred issue proceeds?
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Just a few thoughts about PPHM as investors enter into the announced/anticipated March news run:
1. Foremost, to CJ and Dianne, a moment to express appreciation for the commitment CJ has made as a Moderator to researching and supporting a message board like this that focuses on a company that is involved with developing treatments for the cancer that has taken Dianne. There are many more who can still benefit if PPHM delivers success with bringing the technology initiated by Dr. Thorpe's team over a decade ago to commercial cancer treatment approval. Thank you.
2. PPHM has shown with the preferred share placement and ATM that the investment community has been willing to "pony up" funds sufficient to pay for the PPHM Phase 3 Bavi NSCLC trials. This has been done while the pps has moved from months of trading in the $1.40 range to a current trading range around $1.80.
3. PPHM is situated with around $100 million in cash now, details to be announced during the upcoming quarterly performance investor conference call. This cash reserve is well beyond the ball park $25 million PPHM had been preserving these last several years to support research, trials and operations and suffices to fund the Phase 3 trial that PPHM announced is recruiting patients.
4. The preferred placement and issue of the 10% over allotment was done on a preferred series issue that carries a $3 pps equivalent conversion of preferred shares to common. Yet, the common is currently trading around $1.80. My own "novice" observation is that the funding mechanism is strengthening the financial base for PPHM at timing when Phase 3 trial recruitment is underway that can strengthen the PPHM technology commercial sales prospects. The "grabbing by the boot straps" process of a Pharma creating and realizing share holder value through a new product that can benefit patients is well underway. The announced sharing of new developments in March appears structured to bolster this process.
5. Institutional investor and margin account trading of PPHM shares should be more heavily practiced when the pps rises above $3. The underlying value of the preferred share issue turns profitable beyond the 10.5% preferred dividends when the pps exceeds $3. If this reinforcing value building dynamic takes hold, PPHM might be positioned to issue other tranches of preferred shares with higher conversion to common bases. For example, another series with a conversion to common basis of $4 pps, then $5 pps etc. can be established, bringing funding to PPHM as newly funded trials and development activities return strengthening commercial valuation prospects.
6. A PPHM partner or buyout candidate is already observing early success of this PPHM valuation enhancement process, delivering both reduced risk for the Pharma to engage into agreements with PPHM and for PPHM to expect more financial consideration from the Pharma. Reporting of interim results is part of the Phase 3 trial design, enabling better matching between share holder value being created through PPHM trial success and PPHM translation of imputed commercial product valuation to share price.
Best wishes and all In My Opinion,
KT
Torau, the Phase 3 NSCLC trial is underway, with several recruitment centers announced. Thus, it is at the initiation stage. We don't know how many patients, if any, have received dosing yet. PPHM indicated they will be reporting interim trial results, so completion is a relative term that doesn't necessarily align with where investors would consider interim results delivering substance that would translate to pps movement. Perhaps, a biotech savvy poster can suggest when we might anticipate seeing earliest interim results of significance for investors?
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Thanks for sharing your interpretation, RRDog. Something that comes to mind is that the fixing of the preferred offering terms works in tandem with fixing posting on this board into a new venue. Conversion of preferred shares to common brings voting rights that in turn, can bring about major institutional holding of the Common, depending on what Institutions choose to pick up the PPHMP shares. Absent partnering or buyout, PPHM is embarking on a go it alone funding strategy. If the Preferred offering brings in enough funding for the completion of the Sunrise trial, shareholders can focus on whether Fast Track approval from the FDA can be utilized with the delivery of favorable trial results. And so does the business plan milestone snowball effect get bigger as critical PPHM events are picked up. The new venue is that retail shareholders may no longer be the collective largest holder of common shares as terms of the preferred offering are set and ownership is revealed.
As has always been the case, the PPHM technology needs to perform if share price expectations are to be delivered.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Loof, I agree about the JPM prediction. It is not their problem to correct and it is a so what for PPHM trading either way.
I always enjoy your updated graphics. A couple questions come to mind with your latest one:
Did you forget to install a rumble seat for Wookie? I can see by proportions that the rocket wasn't big enough for Wook to fit inside, but the current situation doesn't look very comfortable if this turns out to be a long ride. Maybe it was the outhouse that was supposed to be the rumble seat but that was already occupied?
LOL!
Perhaps, you or CP might offer a suggestion as to why PPHM has large volume with relatively minor share price movement again? Presuming the 5000 or so retail investors said to be associated with PPHM are just watching the show for now, where are the shares to cover the volume coming from?
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Stoneroad, "rear view mirror" says it all today. After I posted how I had all the shares I needed when the pps was trading below $1.40 for months, that rear view mirror is showing my decision falling further and further behind where PPHM is at. It is a mixed feelings thing. I could have bought more. Does that mean I SHOULD have bought more, LOL!?
Holding another 20 or 30 thousand shares would have been nice when hind sight signals PPHM is actually moving away from its base. Finally! Through all this, Bavi still needs to demonstrate it is performing in trials to bring benefits to patients, which is ultimately where this matters most.
It seems that delving back into the IHUB intro material to review the goodies that CJ has posted is in order. I am curious about whether the overall PPHM market cap is getting ready to breach into levels higher than since timing around 2000 when the pps breached into the $80 pps range ($16 pre split) for a short while. I will believe that institutions and large pharma will have tipped their hand that they are beginning to understand the value of PPHM technology when the pps begins basing with a market cap of $3+ billion or around $20+ pps. For now, a premarket above $2 is more of a curiosity that makes for enjoyable viewing, LOL.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Frustrated, I haven't seen a reference that credibly shows what PPHM knew and by when leading into September 20-24, 2012. I presume the Class Action suit, which I presume will be dismissed soon unless someone does answer to the who knew questions, will carry that theme forward to resolution, if resolution is to be had. Hence, if you have those answers, you might offer them to the court, if that is your interest.
I found the Dart revenge driven theory to be very amusing, as well, but didn't figure it worth calling out until you did. Why? Mr. Dart made a relatively small assignment of resources to establish a minimum reportable stake in PPHM ownership. What better way to blow smoke around tracking to a true culprit than to suggest revenge against a 5% share holder was cause for intentional miscoding by a third party during a trial that could propel Bavi to quick commercial approval?
Good luck with your PPHM investment and LOL, LOL, LOL.
All IMO,
KT
Stoneroad, is MaxPain open for adjustment to "give up" some of the time premium in call options? Considering how time premium might have run at 30 cents, a $1.50 option writer receiving 30 cents doesn't lose money until a $1.50 option goes in the money with a $1.80 pps at option expiration. Did I get this right?
FWIW, I posted this afternoon's NASDAQ options listing.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Calls Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int Root Strike Puts Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
January 2014
Jan 18, 2014 1.32 1.10 1.35 0 71 PPHM 0.50 Jan 18, 2014 0.05 0.25 0 10
Jan 18, 2014 0.65 -0.06 0.65 0.75 31 526 PPHM 1.00 Jan 18, 2014 0.08 0.05 0 842
Jan 18, 2014 0.15 0.15 0.20 1133 2577 PPHM 1.50 Jan 18, 2014 0.09 0.10 0 790
Jan 18, 2014 0.05 0.05 0 5008 PPHM 2.00 Jan 18, 2014 0.30 0.15 0.35 0 31
Jan 18, 2014 0.05 0.05 0 972 PPHM 2.50 Jan 18, 2014 0.75 0.65 0.90 0 72
Jan 18, 2014 0.04 0.10 0 761 PPHM 3.00 Jan 18, 2014 1.15 1.40 0
Jan 18, 2014 0.05 0.25 0 167 PPHM 4.00 Jan 18, 2014 2.10 2.50 0
Jan 18, 2014 0.05 0.25 0 722 PPHM 5.00 Jan 18, 2014 3.10 3.50 0
Jan 18, 2014 0.05 0.20 0 416 PPHM 6.00 Jan 18, 2014 4.10 4.50 0
February 2014
Feb 22, 2014 0.85 0.60 0.90 0 172 PPHM 1.00 Feb 22, 2014 0.20 0
Feb 22, 2014 0.10 0.10 0.15 40 1721 PPHM 2.00 Feb 22, 2014 0.40 0.35 0.45 0 129
Feb 22, 2014 0.05 0.10 0 15 PPHM 3.00 Feb 22, 2014 1.20 1.45 0
Feb 22, 2014 0.20 0 PPHM 4.00 Feb 22, 2014 2.10 2.50 0
Feb 22, 2014 0.20 0 PPHM 5.00 Feb 22, 2014 3.10 3.50 0
Feb 22, 2014 0.20 0 PPHM 6.00 Feb 22, 2014 4.00 4.60 0
April 2014
Apr 19, 2014 1.30 1.10 1.30 0 10 PPHM 0.50 Apr 19, 2014 0.15 0
Apr 19, 2014 0.80 -0.05 0.75 0.85 115 1143 PPHM 1.00 Apr 19, 2014 0.08 0.20 0 42
Apr 19, 2014 0.49 -0.01 0.45 0.50 44 2617 PPHM 1.50 Apr 19, 2014 0.22 0.15 0.25 0 811
Apr 19, 2014 0.30 0.05 0.25 0.30 146 3019 PPHM 2.00 Apr 19, 2014 0.45 0.50 0.65 0 143
Apr 19, 2014 0.20 0.15 0.20 0 649 PPHM 2.50 Apr 19, 2014 0.90 0.90 1.05 0 22
Apr 19, 2014 0.10 -0.05 0.10 0.15 100 1057 PPHM 3.00 Apr 19, 2014 1.30 1.55 0
Apr 19, 2014 0.05 0.05 0.15 0 287 PPHM 4.00 Apr 19, 2014 2.20 2.55 0
Apr 19, 2014 0.05 0.15 0 PPHM 5.00 Apr 19, 2014 3.20 3.50 0
Apr 19, 2014 0.05 0.02 0.15 98 165 PPHM 6.00 Apr 19, 2014 4.10 4.50 0
July 2014
Jul 19, 2014 0.85 0.80 0.90 69 1507 PPHM 1.00 Jul 19, 2014 0.10 0.05 0.15 0 2
Jul 19, 2014 0.38 -0.02 0.40 0.45 269 2257 PPHM 2.00 Jul 19, 2014 0.65 0.65 0.70 0 235
Jul 19, 2014 0.25 0.05 0.20 0.30 100 1207 PPHM 3.00 Jul 19, 2014 1.50 1.45 1.65 0 2
Jul 19, 2014 0.22 0.10 0.25 0 39 PPHM 4.00 Jul 19, 2014 2.30 2.65 0
Jul 19, 2014 0.15 0.15 0.20 0 140 PPHM 5.00 Jul 19, 2014 3.30 3.60 0
Jul 19, 2014 0.10 0.05 0.20 0 47 PPHM 6.00 Jul 19, 2014 4.20 4.60 0
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/pphm/option-chain#ixzz2qgijPFtG
Other Guy, I read a while ago that "there is no such thing as a bad profit". While I point out how pps history gives rationale for holding beyond $17, there were those big placements PPHM made in the 70 cent to 80 cent pre reverse split range. Your $17 target is a nice risk reward balance for recent (reverse split timing through now) entrants to PPHM long positions. Recall that Ken Dart was among those later entrants.
However, valuation of PPHM ought to be in proportion to expected earnings and sales with approved treatments in the market as trials are indicating success (risk is that this will not happen). $17 pps is only about a $3 billion market cap. If there is success in the works, a higher pps recognizing unrealized share holder value ought to be in progress within a year or two of Pharma Partner announcement. That is why I placed my target expectations higher.
For most longs, $17 pps would still provide a return that outperforms the average annual 7% that has now been brought to question as being unrealistic. The rule of 72 with a 7% return would exhibit a doubling of funds with compounding over ten years. A cost basis of about $3.50 pps pre reverse split is like $17.50 pps now. So a ten year back cost basis of $1.75 pre RV would show an investor a market average return from holding ten years and selling now at $17.50. Of course PPHM investment risk has been much higher than mutual funds average returns so a higher pps (or lower cost average) would be needed to reward patience with PPHM.
Obviously, if PPHM is not delivering to expectations in trials, making comparisons to market average returns is ludicrous. 2014 has formed up as an interesting year.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT.
CP, love your "no worries" outlook for PPHM. I would say I have mostly maneuvered into a similar outlook. I have been told by the Administrator of my 401 k that shares held are not in the short borrowing pool and that they use brokerage account status to enabled liquid trading (don't need to wait for the three days for fund clearance). Is that true? A smart sounding twenty something on the phone said it to me, so why should I doubt that, LOL!
I have a margin account and Roth IRA as well, but the number of shares is risk balanced. No worries there.
No stops either, since I learned the hard way that stop limit orders don't perform the way I would expect when parties are shorting the stock to below the limit threshold. Options? I still have a few call option and got excited until I saw the pps retreat from $2. So much for making big profits from a risk hedging tool designed to enable shorts to boldly go where no one has gone before...(Star Trek, LOL!).
Accumulate more shares on dips? I did that. Again and again. Now my cost average and volume held means I only need more shares if I want to live in a mansion upon PPHM finally delivering on its potential. But I don't, so I no longer worry about stock price or market timing unless the pps begins enticing some sales. That raises the question, how much is enough and how high might partnering or a buy out move the pps? It doesn't matter right at this moment since I will recognize it when it happens with pps likely hovering within 20% of its peak. I never have been able to be a good market timer.
Consider some pps excursion point events that might entice some long time longs to sell.
$5 pps. That is what the pps breached before the tPhase 2 NSCLC trial was found to have suffered third party dose mislabeling. Also, $5 to $7 about coincides with the buck trading threshold that PPHM suffered for years, pre reverse split. I expect a higher pps than that now with PPHM success.
$10 pps. Pre split, PPHM had several excursions into the $2s that were shorted down. I expect a higher pps than that now from PPHM.
$20 pps. That China news excitement followed by CTL Epstein apparent ignoring of PPHM commitments or whatever the lawsuit was about delivered a $4 pre split pps when investors were expecting Shanghai Brilliance or ?? to buy TNT Product from Avid while the Chinese built their own mabufacturing and PPHM was going to provide consulting services. The only real confirmation that the deal collapsed was the gradual pps decline into the $2s pre split and frequent shorting cycles played in concert with Russell Fund qualification and rebalancing. I expect a higher pps than $20 now.
$40 pps. Hmmmm. Imclone driven by Erbitux excitement achieved $7 billion plus market cap before they were fully acquired. Tempting to sell a few shares here? Conditions at the time would drive. How close I am to wanting to retire would drive the decision.
$60 pps. Now outstanding shares and an $11 billion market cap is in play. We are talking about $12 pps pre reverse split equivalent. I feel my hands are losing their grip. Even though a full buy out might deliver better.
$80 pps. Yikes! Now even those early TCLN investors that bought and held since the pre reverse split run up to $16 pps around 2000 are coming into cost basis recovery and profit. $13 billion market cap would have PPHM starting to look like a smaller big Pharma. I would likely be watching with curiosity, holding no position.
$180 pps. A respectable big Pharma might have $30 billion + market capitalization develop from Bavi family anti-PS tech products proving value. This isn't the PPHM I was supporting, buying shares when risk of NASDAQ delisting was a sorry with sub $1 pps pre reverse split trading. This market cap, I presume, will have been harvested by the big Pharma who bought PPHM out as part of their reward at an earlier time when PPHM longs were enticed to let go. No need to speculate the pps any higher.
How about $0 pps? Avid sales for third party contracts are running $30 million annually and climbing. No need to worry about this sort of total PPHM breakdown IMO unless PPHM put up all their assets as collateral and trials are not delivering. No where close to that situation today.
Best wishes and IMO. Of course, this is all fantasy and should not be viewed as investment advise. I have not been invested in PPHM/TCLN for a dozen years on purpose and investment risk could leave new investors just as strung out as I have been. FWIW, I haven't told my wife that PPHM appears to be setting up for a breakout again because I already know what she will say... Why didn't you sell that off years ago like I suggested? LOL!
KT
Loof, my targets are figuring that PPHM the stock reaches a market capitalization of $7 billion to $11 billion in conjunction with Bavi pending Phase 3 trial success and related PPHM buyout timing. The $100 billion market capitalization I view as reasonable enough to recognize Bavi, anti-PS family value, but I am presuming that this ten fold market cap enhancement posts on the books of the acquiring large Pharma. Of course, if PPHM is compelled to go it alone, it will take longer, but the higher market cap would prospectively post for PPHM share holders. Why? I am just speculating about what a Pharma partner candidate may want to stage for entry. A 10x upside is still good incentive and PPHM demonstrating success is imminent reduces risk.
Best wishes and IMO,
KT
Lemmy, thanks for sharing the plot of the pps trend for the last dozen years. It does provide an interesting story back drop. Working within those bands bracketing highs and lows, lie the status of PPHM technology development towards commercialization.
There was Oncolym, which preceded my investment entry into TCLN, followed by Cotara and Tumor Necrosis Therapy. Then along came Tarvacin, now Bavituximab. Recognizing it can take ten years for a promising drug candidate to make it through trials into FDA approvals and considering how much money is needed to invest in same, there is that interesting deflection in formation since January of 2012, when it became apparent that Bavi was showing exceptional results in the Phase 2 NSCLC trial, despite the clear evidence of dose switching. Now long investors are seeing tech reinforcement with FDA approval of the PPHM Phase 3 trial design, PPHM announced trial start, FDA granting of Fast Track Status and an S3 that suggests a path by which PPHM can fund all this, with or without a partner. That is quite a contrast to how things played out years back when investors were hopeful for China news and the sobering realization came that Cancer Therapeutics Laboratories may have gone rogue and the Epstein lawsuit was required.
I observe now that it is very nice for those who have made a long investment with recognition of how long it can take for a drug like Bavituximab and the anti-PS platform to make its way to approval. Things look hopeful in a way that I have not seen since my initial TCLN/PPHM investment. And, due to my cost averaging and accumulation investment strategy, I hold about five hundred times more shares than my first exploratory investment that posted with a pre split pps basis of about $35 at an average cost basis that might even allow me a profitable outcome if the PPHM business plan delivers this time.
Good luck with your PPHM investment.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Couch, PPHM is working a long term focused business plan that, if successful, can lead to PPHM technology (e.g. the anti- PS and ES targeting MABS)commercial success. Success in a fast tracked trial like that announced today is certainly cause for a bullish outlook, but those of us who have invested in TCLN/PPHM long term should have learned to be very careful about trying to time market entry points. Delays and surprises are always a high risk factor. Plus entry of large, private investors has shown association with a period downward trending pps, which can be counter-intuitive. And as can be seen by today's trading, the pps can move up and down quickly within minutes. The IHUB Ibox carries a lot of good summary level information about PPHM, which can be a good starting place for your DD.
Good luck with your PPHM investment.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Cheynew, I recall posters suggesting that AF might have been "snubbed" by PPHM at an investor conference a couple years back. Whatever the cause for the negative outlook about PPHM that was in play a couple years ago, fundamentals have changed and, as always, investors need to think for themselves. If/when PPHM announces to investors how they plan on paying for the fast track status, Bavi Phase 3 NSCLC trial, dissenting views about PPHM prospects should fall in line with what long investors would also likely be awaiting. That is, how is Bavi performing as indicated in interim trial result reporting? IMO, that makes the carryover of views from a year or two back a "so what".
PPHM has already announced their S-3 that implies a preferred stock offering may be the instrument for financing the trial, but that is still speculation. If PPHM were to achieve the full $100 million in financing cited in the S3 and set aside use of the ATM while the trial proceeds, there should be ample funding for the trial as announced plus ancillary trials for other indications and even moving Cotara along for a Phase 3 trial start (with a partner?). Once financing has been secured, we can fall back into our waiting for trial results mode, perhaps seeing announcement of a partnering deal as our first indication of PPHM success being in the works. That could happen any time, but I am guessing that partnering will still hold out until after PPHM has made it clear that PPHM could go it alone if they had to.
After all, there is still that multi billion per year cash flow going to Pharma for treatments using standard of care that Pharma can expect to continue until something comes along that indicates it will do better for patients. PPHM is much closer but still needs to demonstrate through the Phase 3 trial results that PPHM technology should be part of standard of care.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
CP, could the block at $2 be related to efforts to cover short interest before there is a run up in pps that reflects the value of PPHM's announced SUNRISE trial start and fast track status being granted by the FDA? I recall that the cycle up in short interest over the last year was associated with the pps being walked down from around the $2 level, so residual short positions would be, in the aggregate, seeking to prevent losses in "on paper' profits that might have been locked in by shorting PPHM over the last year.
I always find it interesting how short interest tends to drop in advance of news that drives pps changes, but it does what it does. Short interest is about half of what it was about three months ago, but is still perhaps 5 million shares above the floor levels of less than 3 to 4 million shares that I have observed in past years when PPHM's outlook appeared bullish.
I copied in the latest short interest from NASDAQ for future reference that support my observations.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
12/13/2013 8,661,584 1,134,876 7.632185
11/29/2013 9,413,042 1,016,454 9.260667
11/15/2013 9,854,527 1,190,725 8.276073
10/31/2013 9,751,269 1,337,858 7.288717
10/15/2013 10,132,721 1,396,924 7.253595
9/30/2013 15,547,091 746,493 20.826841
9/13/2013 15,681,288 1,288,033 12.174601
8/30/2013 16,107,814 717,696 22.443784
8/15/2013 16,357,614 1,086,600 15.053943
7/31/2013 16,783,378 1,359,808 12.342462
7/15/2013 17,829,059 1,765,362 10.099378
6/28/2013 12,882,529 4,112,951 3.132186
6/14/2013 11,848,918 2,751,147 4.306901
5/31/2013 10,936,051 4,552,703 2.402101
5/15/2013 11,068,278 1,659,755 6.668622
4/30/2013 11,556,843 1,929,305 5.990159
4/15/2013 11,988,907 1,772,410 6.764184
3/28/2013 12,534,714 1,498,119 8.366968
3/15/2013 12,854,250 3,297,431 3.898262
2/28/2013 12,700,807 4,096,673 3.100274
2/15/2013 11,006,470 5,694,878 1.932696
1/31/2013 8,718,070 3,032,788 2.874606
1/15/2013 8,235,468 13,452,752 1.000000
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/pphm/short-interest#ixzz2pdI9C5a8
Lemmy, I scrolled back on the posts to see what you might be concerned about, re TOU violations and spotted five posts on this board by CT since Thanksgiving. Please note, staying on topic also means, do not post about other users and other stocks per TOU reminders.
As far as the charting goes, it presents an update from 12/30 going into January 3, i.e., last week's trading pattern shift going into 2014. I think it is nice to see the pps closing above the 200 day moving average in conjunction with PPHM announcing initiation of the Phase 3 Bavi NSCLC trial near the end of 2013, don't you? I look forward to updated analysis that CT might share. As per IHub TOU, please note that the terms clarify it is on topic if posting is about PPHM the company and PPHM the stock. The chart analysis is about PPHM the stock and company.
Writing as a PPHM board Moderator, I hope you find this clarification helpful. TOU reminders are posted by IHub adjacent to the post message box, so the TOU reminders can be viewed there when you make your next post, if you like.
Good luck with your PPHM investment.
KT
Cheynew, Happy New Year to you. It is a bit unusual to see the pps close above that $1.40 threshold that has been lingering for months. I had been yielding through February as providing sufficient time for PPHM to launch the NSCLC Phase 3 trial. We now have trial initiation announced. The S3 gives a hint of a preferred financing, but still only a hint. Financing in order plus announcement of patient enrollment sets the stage for a partner entry announcement.
Maybe February is still good timing conjecture. Maybe March or April. Maybe (but less likely) January partnering announcement timing. If PPHM lays out solid financing for the Phase 3 trial, a partner announcement may wait for early trial data or ? Regardless, PPHM appears to be drawing more cards for improving their hand when engaging negotiations.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
GJH, LOL, about coining the term checkpoint. Nice to know you work for cheap. But then, we are posting on an anonymous message board while PPHM is bringing their message before a global lung cancer conference.
Didn't somebody's military coin the term checkpoint? LOL!
More seriously, Bavi and the PPHM technology does what it has demonstrated in ISTs and trials. Presumably, we have learned how Bavi is demonstrating an "upstream role" as it attaches to exposed PS in a way that can help immunotherapies that exert their influence further downstream in sequence to be more effective. Why do I say presumably? Because the detail is being presented at conferences over the next few weeks at which time experts with a critical view will be in the audience. It is not PPHM jumping on any band wagon here, it is the scientific community working through new insights as to how complex interventions in the body's immune system are allowing cancer to proliferate and how PPHM and others are bringing forward treatments that are serving to unmask and work around those mechanisms that are preventing the body's immune system from attacking the cancer. Or something like that....
Best wishes and IMO.
KT