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New #s: Short interest creeping up again.
4/30/2018 170,570
4/13/2018 141,059
3/29/2018 191,644
3/15/2018 189,171
2/28/2018 205,368
2/15/2018 215,808
1/31/2018 224,654
Nice to see it rebound today. The stock action on IMTE today (up over 1000%) on low-float momentum craziness made me daydream what POLA could do if they put up a good number in a week and a half.
Earnings May 14th. A little later than I expected, but a Monday so that's good.
https://ir.polarpower.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Polar-Power-to-Host-First-Quarter-2018-Financial-Results-Conference-Call-on-Monday-May-14-2018-at-430-pm-ET/default.aspx
"IF" (and that's a big if) they are telling the truth on the orders and the 2nd shift and what they hope will come internationally, FEMA, T-mobile, etc (on top of what they already have), then I don't think you will have to wait 12 months for it to get to $10. The stock will go up nicely if it becomes obvious it won't be long before they can do $10M in U.S. alone and investors believe the idea that international will eventually exceed that. There aren't that many stocks out there left that are cheap for that type of opportunity.
Newest short #s (they are down):
04/13/2018 141,059
03/29/2018 191,644
03/15/2018 189,171
02/28/2018 205,368
02/15/2018 215,808
01/31/2018 224,654
01/12/2018 229,708
12/29/2017 239,571
12/15/2017 289,336
Once it breaks $6.53 (assuming/fingers crossed it does so after earnings with some solid volume), what would be the next resistance level since there was such a huge drop a year before?
if true, then it's better than Q1 last year. A Monday release would be better than the Friday release they did in April 2017 when the numbers stunk.
The stock was $7.54 on April 21rst, 2017 and faded down over the next several days. Once that is gone from a year ago then the stock will be trading at the very top end of it's 52 week high range. That will start to put it on the radar of new investors looking for daily high stocks.
Fingers crossed that the earnings report is solid enough + cc call info to move the stock up a bit more. Momentum creates more momentum.
If you are short, the price action has to be making you nervous. I'm sure some of them are in from a higher price, but to have watched $2 of profit (from low $4s) disappear can't be fun. It's a tough stock to cover on without driving it up on yourself anymore.
We need a solid Q1 report and comments in cc call to hold the price or, better yet, drive it higher.
Imo, the key to a big gain in this stock is international. I don't doubt they could $10M/qtr in U.S. sales regularly if the can get Sprint involved, some of the mid-tier telecoms, and more military. Can they do that internationally in time? The number of off-grid cell tower sites in the world is huge. Can they do it with reasonable solid margins too? Doing the generator windings in CA is one thing, shipping it in a full metal enclosure (1/2 full of empty space) across the world is another. They will need to set up partial operations closer to large contracts to make it so margins stay above 35% on international orders.
When and at what price I hit the cash register depends on if and how long I think it would take for them to get to $15M in sales/qtr. I won't start to know that until I gather more info from the Q1 results and the cc call. I've invested in the stock market long enough to know that making a 20% gain is not the key to great wealth if you then watch a 200% gain go from there without you. It's easier to ride a strong horse for all it has then go jumping from one to another one willy nilly.
One thing I do like about POLA is the low float # of shares vs the daily volume that can occur. It will produce a lot of volatility that will overshoot where it belongs. At $6 I don't think it's there now. However, if it went over $7.50 before earnings, then I'd say it was. As for after earnings, it will depend on the #s and commentary.
None of us can complain that's for sure. There was a time in the initial period around the IPO and after that the thought was that POLA could do $100M in revenue in time per year. Hopefully we are getting a glimpse of the possibility arising (or at least others thinking it could). I'd like the stock at $7 obviously, but I'd like it at $15 more with long-term gain taxes instead.
New short #s are out:
As of end of March there are still 191K left.
Settlement Date---Short Interest--Avg Daily Share Volume--Days To Cover
3/29/2018 191,644 27,591 6.945888
3/15/2018 189,171 28,508 6.635716
2/28/2018 205,368 5,052 40.650831
2/15/2018 215,808 13,733 15.714556
1/31/2018 224,654 15,294 14.689028
Wadirum1---I actually think this is the reason for the trading. They presented at 11am EST. The first volume that started to move the stock up was at 11:10am EST. It's about the time when they would have been at the slide where they say AT&T revenue in Q1 is 3x that of Q4. If it's true, then buying at $5.20 is a good price as it will show Wall Street that the worst is over and 2018 will be solid.
There is a Seeking Alpha article coming out on POLA (by Dan Stringer). I got a notification that is was available to "Pro+ members" first (I'm not one of them, just saw the notification). I assume it will be released to others in the next day or so.
It will be interesting to see what size the T-mobile contract ends up being. If it's similar to AT&T, then this stock will do really well the rest of the year when you add in all the other things coming too.
I don't think the shorts push the price up much more, but they also should help put a floor on it too. If they don't keep covering then a decent Q1 and solid comments in the pr and cc call could give them an even tougher time by the end of the month.
Worthylion....that's the way I read it too. I think the key will be do they actually do it?!? The 10K should be out today and it may give more insight. There is mistrust here with POLA obviously. I think it will fade quickly though if they can show U.S. operations starting to build nicely. People forget that Verizon did over $20M in sales in 2016 so any of these contracts can be bigger than we realize.
I think U.S. sales (AT&T, T-mobile, Verizon, military, soon to be FEMA, and potential for Sprint to join the crowd) gets the stock to it's IPO price soon. The key to it going further (i.e. $10 or $15) is international sales. Can they keep adding in contracts? Can they get Australia to become their #2 market in time? Can they keep international sales from dropping margins too much? Management needs to show they can handle the increase in sales and get it to hit the bottom line.
One plus to POLA is that they also have institutional owners. It means it won't take much to keep adding them in. That lowers the available portion of the float even more which can produce greater volatility if good news flows.
Good news?!?.....Wadirum1...Perhaps here is your answer. In the latest IR March report:
https://s21.q4cdn.com/772584186/files/doc_presentations/2018/Polar-Power-Investor-Presentation-March-2018-Final-Roth-PRINTED.pdf
on page 10 check out the following:
"Reached a three-year commercial agreement with U.S. Tier-1 wireless carrier customer
Q4-2017 –This customer generated 45% of net sales and in Q1-2018 = 3X Q4-2017 run rate"
Now we know why they need a second shift to deal with more incoming orders.
New short #s out....down again:
date-----#short---vol/day---# days to cover
3/15/2018......189,171...28,508...6.635716
2/28/2018...... 205,368..5,052...40.650831
2/15/2018.......215,808..13,733...15.714556
1/31/2018.......224,654...15,294...14.689028
1/12/2018.......229,708...19,587...11.727574
12/29/2017......239,571...36,679...6.531558
12/15/2017......289,336...32,046...9.028771
Wadirum1...I don't know if anyone knows anything specific about contracts, but I wouldn't doubt that some people know if they are busy or not at their facility.
The 10K will be out this week so that should give a bit more specifics. The new short # will be out at the end of the market on Monday.
There was 17.5K shares on the ask at $4.70 this morning so it's good to see someone step up and take that out.
Nimibia contract.....most likely it is this (524 towers):
https://www.namibian.com.na/174168/archive-read/MTC-to-erect-500-new-towers
I have to say I'm rather pleased with the stock price action since earnings. I'd be fine if it traded in a range of high $4s (maybe into low $5s for a bit) until the next news comes out that builds and confirms the story. They need to turn opportunities into revenue to get the stock up to IPO levels and beyond.
Another plus on the first responder network.....VZ isn't backing down from Firstnet & AT&T. They really can't. If the two of them battle it out in a contest of "who is better", it can only help POLA. It's sad to say this, but a good hurricane next summer that hits will highlight and emphasize, yet again, the need for backup power in this first responder network even more.
https://www.phonearena.com/news/Verizon-cites-square-miles-coverage-vs-AT-T-FirstNet-respondents-network_id103177
https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/public-safety-battleground-verizon-at-t-and-intense-fight-over-firstnet
Hopefully they update what's happening on the international front between now and the next quarterly report in early May. I think that's what is key to taking it to the next level. I'd love for everything to be coming together solidly by 3rd Q and the stock moves over $10 by the end of the year. I think it bodes well for 2019 then as all the contracts compound.
Fingers crossed the economy and the market stay strong.
Tower companies happy with what is coming:
https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/tower-companies-cheer-at-t-sprint-t-mobile-network-buildouts
The more tower work that is done in 2018 and 2019, the more POLA should get some of it to flow to them for hardening of sites.
Newest short #:
Date----#short----avg vol/day---# days to cover
2/28/2018 205,368 5,052 40.650831
2/15/2018 215,808 13,733 15.714556
1/31/2018 224,654 15,294 14.689028
1/12/2018 229,708 19,587 11.727574
Worthylion. Revenue was $3.979M for the quarter so I doubt your pleading theory is accurate.
Backlog of $1.8M was on Dec 31rst. If they didn't sign the more extensive contract with AT&T until sometime this quarter or with Nimibia and Sri Lanka until late Jan/Feb, then I doubt Jan and Feb were that strong in revenue. The real question is what is backlog as of today.
I don't expect much exciting for Q1 numbers. However, no one will care about that if they are running 2 shifts from day 1 for Q2 as the focus will be on the rest of 2018 and beyond by then.
The next key news will be if the demos in Japan and Malaysia lead to contracts. Also, how long till they think they can get deals done in Australia (probably not much in 2Q, but hopefully 3Q??) Also, can they get the deal in South Africa? They need more international contracts to show investors that there is strong growth that can be captured there quickly.
Imo, the #1 thing from the earnings and cc call that you can feel good about is:
.......they are starting a second shift come next week to deal with current/expected orders.
The company isn't doing that to deal with $4M/qtr in orders.
Wadirum1....they were their typical selves on the cc call. However, here are some of the highlights:
--they are starting a second production line next week to deal with orders.
---They wouldn't give the name, but the 3 year deal with the U.S. Tier 1 company is obviously AT&T. It puts them in good position to benefit nicely from Firstnet. They are already getting orders at a higher level then then have been told to expect.
---The soon to be signed other 3 year deal with the other U.S. Tier 1 company is T-mobile then (who has demoed a unit for 6 months now). Again, orders will be ongoing weekly/monthly.
---The orders with Nimibia and Sri Lanka are 2-3 year ongoing deals with set terms that will produce so many units/month over the contract. Nimibia is part of a "whole tower" order so they are just part of it. The one in Sri Lanka is with the 7th largest telecom company in the world.
---FEMA order should be coming in 2Q that they are subcontracting on. Other military contracts expanding and opportunities arising.
---They are finalists in other big international orders. Also, demoing units in Japan and Malaysia. They expect Australia to be big going forward---second only to U.S.and is why they are opening up an administrative office there.
The reality is this stock doesn't get exciting until they do $10M/qtr. I think by Q3 with the signed contracts they have + one more large international order (S. Africa, Australia, etc???) they could potentially get there. All of this just builds into 2019 then as these orders are all multi-year.
Wadirum1...they aren't adding a second production line next week for the kicks of it. It's only because SIGNED contracts are producing real orders.
Perhaps. I'll be a buyer tomorrow if it does. By Q3 2018 things should be rolling nicely here. Contracts with AT&T and T-mobile added together with the continued Verizon and military contracts will produce a solid base of $6M+ in revenue imo. International then is the key to get it up to $10M. Two ongoing contracts already signed + potential for more makes it look promising.
Worthylion...POLA
Q4 disappointed (yet again), however:
The 3 year deal with AT&T is a positive. AT&T is the one doing FirstNet---the national first responder network that is big.
The 3 year deal with the demo U.S. Tier 1 company would be T-mobile.
International is moving along.
Q4 disappointing, but 3 year contract with AT&T (can you say Firstnet?!!) and one coming with T-mobile too is nice. International progressing and should close deals soon.
Interesting to see what they say in cc call.
Wadirum1....earnings are tomorrow (Thursday) after the market closes. There was a pr a few weeks ago on it.
Obviously with the stock price as it is the market isn't expecting much from earnings next week. As such, any good news (Q4 or for 2018) should give it a bump up.
The analyst is also the one who wrote in an April 2017 report that their industry sources said that Verizon sales would probably be down. As such, they have connections on who to ask in telecom. What bothers me is that, if true, there is no pr. Either it hasn't truly closed with a contract, the order isn't meaningful, or the order is more open ended with continual small orders and not one big one, or they can't get permission to release it from the telecom company. It'll will be interesting to see if it's discussed during earnings. I'd think them showing success on the international front would be a nice thing.
For whatever this is worth............
There is supposedly a Joseph Gunnar report out that says that POLA won an RFQ bid from Malaysia in 2018 so far. There is no dollar amount known. If so, not sure why no pr on it. The analyst is also giving a wide range of an estimate for Q4. I haven't read the report (the reports used to be public on the website, but now need client access). The info was passed on to me by another investor.
New short interest #s:
Down for 5th time in a row. What's interesting is that the avg volume/day is down also so the ability to cover is harder.
Closing date....# short..avg vol...# days to cover based on avg vol
2/15/2018 215,808 13,733 15.714556
1/31/2018 224,654 15,294 14.689028
1/12/2018 229,708 19,587 11.727574
12/29/2017 239,571 36,679 6.531558
12/15/2017 289,336 32,046 9.028771
Yeah, short interest #s today. I doubt they have changed much from last time.
IMO, even if they came in at $4.5M in revenue, but had solid backlog and strong statements, the stock goes up. The stock is priced for the worst result. It's because there are few buyers right now.
I'd be super happy if it was $6.0M and 7-8 cents/share. If it's not that, I'd be happy if backlog was such that it's clear things are expanding. I think either situation boosts the stock.