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We are at a conference this week and won't be posting much, the home page is being kept up. Hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving.
Sam
A rap here today, hope everyone had a good week and have a safe weekend. We'll be doing some traveling on Monday so I don't think I'll be around.
Sam
Today was a strong market day, tomorrow will not likely be as easy to make money.
Sam
Thanks MechanicalMethod, glad to see you still check in here too <g>.
Sam
A case where the numbers were correct and my gut was wrong. Things look even better for tomorrow.
Sam
I exited my toy play yesterday. I bought Toys'R'Us (TOY) the first of October as per the play I mentioned. I thought about holding it into next week, but have to admit I thought the SSRatio would go negative today and the VIX doesn't look so good either. So....out of TOY +33.9%.
Sam
Despite the indices drop today, our market risk estimate actually improved today, I'd still go easy tomorrow.
Sam
Our market risk gauge is once again close to going to where the market favors selling. DVN the only short term trade for today once again showed up on the short term screening.
Sam
Hi Lee,
Good to hear from you, I've missed your entertaining posts on your doctor visits. <g>
As far as Barb goes I'm surprised she never posted that she was leaving. So it goes.
Hope you are well.
Sam
The internals reversed to positive for tomorrow, we'll see.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
She has been gone a long time. Odd.
After 19 positive days our estimate of market risk has turned negative, only mildly, so we could see a reverse. However, caution is advised.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Funny --- since her husband is Andy, and I don't think she was pregnant.....
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
We still have market risk favoring buying, but it hangs by a small thread in the balance between the volume going into uptrending stocks compared to the volume going out of the downtrending stocks.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Our estimate of market risk didn't drop as much as I'd expect looking at the indices, but the volume wasn't there so risk still favors going long .... but by a very slim margin.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Market risk is at the edge of going into the high range, I'd go ahead and limit my picks to day trades on Monday and see how the market develops.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The market risk indicator has remained positive for a few weeks, but has been flopping up and down as far as direction. So once again we are headed toward the red, a day or two of trading like today would get us there. Remember this indicator doesn't predict the market as much as follow the trend.
Sam
I repeat the following as my thoughts regarding what the government can do for economic growth.
1) Cut corporate taxes to allow companies to shift taxes to dividends, which would up the valuation of the balance sheet and stock price. Eliminate the taxes on dividends.
2) Allow the public, but not company insiders, to buy stock during the next year without paying capital gains taxes.
3) Increase the capital loss to $6,000 this year and $10,000 next.
Hope the 1/2 does it guys, but so far....
Market risk for Wednesday is still favorable, but has lost a bit of its momentum. Picks are posted at http://www.savvy-trader.com
Sam
Our market risk estimate has now made 13 consecutive days favoring buying. Picks for Tuesday are posted.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The Microsoft ruling should make for an interesting day in tech land tomorrow. I've posted the breakouts from our screening, however few are techs.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Market risk is once again at the edge of going negative. Both longs and shorts are posted.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Our estimate of market risk has once again pulled back from the edge of going negative.
We are once again at the edge of going back into our fox holes as far as long positions. Our estimate of market risk and picks are posted.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The market risk remains positive for tomorrow, but there was fewer breakouts that screened out, though most from today are worth keeping an alert on.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Our estimate of market risk has been positive for seven consecutive days, and continues to look good for Monday.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Good week, have a good weekend everyone.
Even though the market was down today, we had two stocks come up on the short term screening, both gaming stocks. Market risk has dropped close to going negative again, but as long as it remains positive a down market is a buying opportunity. But, there are several of potential shorts to look at for tomorrow.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Just not enough profit taking to bring any stocks to support and give us some short term trades, there are plenty of potential breakouts however.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Seems there is a difference in the down market compared to the down market a few weeks ago in that the bounces seem to be holding and making money in the last couple days.
The market is getting the profit taking it needed, but neither the earnings nor the economic news has been very good. Guess we can look at this as a "wall of worry"...Site has been updated for Wednesday.
Sam
We need some backing and filling, so even keep a sharp eye on the breakouts. I'm hoping we get enough profit taking to get more stocks down to support, for short term trades.
Sam
Lot easier handling today than on a day the market gaps up anyway.
Our estimate of market strength and some potential breakouts....and an updated group strength table is posted for Monday at http://www.savvy-trader.com
Sam
After 33 consecutive days The Screened Stock Ratio has finally gone green, at +0.25 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk drops to low. We might see it flip into the negative a time or two, but this looks like the beginning of something good.
Again, there were no additional short term stocks on the screening for tomorrow. The potential breakouts to watch for include: AFL, BJS, BLC, CCE, COH, DBRN, DNB, FO, GNTX, HYSL, OCAS, SIE, SII, TKR and XRAY. No shorts screened out.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
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The Screened Stock Ratio dropped only a small amount, despite the relatively sharp drop in the indices, at -0.35 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk rises back to high. However, looks like we might just flip the other way tomorrow. I'd be cautious until we see the SSRatio go positive.
There were no additional short term stocks on the screening. The potential breakouts to watch for tomorrow include: BMET, CRL, HDI, HDWR, HSIC, PDCO, RNR, SHFL, TRB, TRMS and UHS (note that UHS has earnings before the open). No shorts screened out.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
In a statistical oddity, the Screened Stock Ratio actually came in at a perfect zero, being a weighted average of 7 days of up trending vs down trending stocks (moving on above average volume), I had to do a double take. But, at 0.00 favoring a neutral position, the estimate of market risk drops to moderate.
There is little doubt the broader market will give back some of the gains from today. The Intel earnings news will force true colors out of the market, if it rebounds again we can have much more confidence in a continuing rally.
The entire short term stock list (AXL, BMS, BYD, MIK, NCEN and WCNX), with the exception of ISLE, rose way above their support and I removed them from the list. ISLE was the only stock that screened out. Breakouts should be safe(er) plays tomorrow: ALLY, AVY, CCE (note that CCE has earnings before the open), COH, MDP, N, PRG, POG and RKY. Two breakdown shorts screened out for tomorrow: ABX and LMT.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The Screened Stock Ratio actually weakened on Monday, yet only slightly at -1.96 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk rises to high. I was a little surprised by just how weak the ratio was, but it is best that it slowly crosses into positive anyway.
No additional short term stocks screened out for Tuesday, three were removed on the pop they got Monday, NCEN repeated so I upped the range. But there are always the breakouts to add interest in the day: CL, COGN, HCBK, ISSX, OHP, RDC, RGIS and UNTD. No shorts screened out for today, anyone shorting MRVL, the only one on Monday's short list, did very well.
Note that we now have a position in NCEN.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Looks good for tomorrow however I would have expected the SSRatio to do better than it did. All is loaded on the site.
Sam
New short term stock screened out for Friday, but take small bites for a couple more days.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com