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It was my understanding that chimeric mabs are safer than humanized as the body understands better that the agent is foreign, so less chance of over-immune response, which is dangerous. I thought the xi factor is what makes bavi safe. Is this correct?
I wonder why people are shorting pphmp, but not pphm? What would cause pphmp to drop, but leave pphm ok?
I think BCS knew - he had stated that the company would need more shares for a partner BCS, when do you predict the reversal? End of October / November / December?
Perhaps many of those shorts covered yesterday, as you can't get blood from a rock.
I have this quote earmarked, "Since 1928, the S&P 500 has declined 10% about once every 11 months. It's declined 20% about once every four years, 30% once a decade, and 50% about three times per century. "
It's oddly given me comfort knowing these trends, so I have cash set aside for these corrections.
I think the tooth fairy is supposed to be good - I mean, she gives money for useless baby teeth right? And even the Grinch grew a heart, after he stole Christmas. Maybe the Loch Ness monster... but that was more likely a strange fish and I don't recall it actually hurting anyone... Hmmm I normally pay less for my entertainment, but I do love a good evil-doer mystery
I think couch has the right idea - he has a few points that he consistently makes and doesn't deviate from these key arguments. I need to teach my kids the Tao of couchism - how to make life-long commitments by thinking like a piece of heavy furniture He keeps it simple; whereas I tend to complicate things- I strive to be couch like
Bcs, I'm not following, what evil doers??
We should go to self help together - lol
I did too - I didn't think I needed a limit order with it sinking- so got some more at .94 - not even sure how that happened as it was at .92 when I submitted the order - hmmm
Gild is down 1% pre market- that's not a good sign for the biotech sector.
Kudos to you! I see your point of view. I also didn't understand the Columbus stigma/ history. In my field, a lot is based on creative/ fast/ problem solving and less on what was actually learned in school. Often in technology, we are creating the solutions that are later taught to future students. So my thought was, if she is a fast intelligent creative problem solver that can make stuff happen - why does her past degrees even matter? But, I didn't realize the degree wasn't legit
Best of luck.
Oh, I didn't realize that thanks
Volgoat, on-line education is very much the modern day trend. Even high-schools now offer college classes on-line! My oldest high-school son has taken/ is taking approximately 17 AP college classes and has passed all the formal college exams he has completed. Yet, some of these classes he had to take on-line due to taking above the normal curriculum. He has also taken classes at a university that were not taught at the high-school or on-line, such as neural science. When he finally graduates from high-school, he will already have completed 2 years of college!
I have also taken classes on-line, after graduating top of my class in computer science at a physical university. Sometimes, it's difficult to attend a local university due to career traveling, frequent spouse job re-location, pregnancy, illness, taking care of sick family members, or being a single parent, etc. Besides, many companies offer to pay for advanced degrees through on-line universities while working.
This is the modern era, why be so confined in thinking?
Wow, it's so easy to pass judgement based on a limited reality map, isn't it?
"But a Ph.D. from a known diploma mill! That's just embarrassing. "
Shaking my head at the sheer hubris of this statement.
Their first line lung cancer had a median OS of 14 mos- half the patients lived or are living greater than 14 months ( according to peregrine's website and not Wikipedia) and this is a stage 4 cancer group where the median is typically less than 8 months and less than 20% typically live greater than one year and only 1-4% typically live five years as the cancer has spread to other organs. How is this a failure?? This is amazing in my eyes. I'm baffled how the control group had similar OS as this study was done before and the control group did not do as well. But anyhow, the results were great.
Did pphm announce when phase 2 enrollment was to complete and did they complete the phase 2 enrollment on schedule?
Pergr- I'm beyond the five stages of grief - I'm in the maniacal laughter phase - is that the in the hidden last chapter? lol
Seriously, this will move back up by November, as investors want in before enrollment completion is announced. Shorts may even start their covering early to mid October - as many have already made greater than 30% -imo
Selling the options is easy- but you have to call your broker and fill out a form on line to be allowed to trade options. And remember that one option equals 100 shares. However, unless you really need the money it doesn't make a lick of sense to sell your shares once the science is proven and the stock price starts to move up. why would anybody want to sell after holding through the riskiest time and sell during the golden years when you can finally re-coop some profits? I'm baffled. I think there may be better option plays out there if you want to earn income on options.
Why is that? I started purchasing March 2014 at $3 - small initial amount - and have started purchasing larger amounts about 3 months ago and on every big dip since, such as yesterday when it dropped 5%. My initial purchase was a reaction to a text from a friend that pphm was finally moving up on promising news. After researching the science over the year and having a better understanding of the risk vs potential- I started purchasing more shares.
lol, my son, who is gifted, thus also brainier than me, stated, "Mom, if you believe in something, you need to go all in. If you think this company has a drug that will be part of the cure for many cancers and diseases, then go big." Now every time I mention that the stock is down, he quotes the south park "and it's gone" bank episode, "mom, just say ..and it's gone."
I got an email from my broker. I then clicked on the link, logged into my account, and clicked on the voting link, which allowed me to vote. There is probably a link to vote in your on-line broker account where you hold your pphm stock.
Is that accurate? How could we have 222M OS already?
"Would a resulting MASSIVE NO justify certain OTHER actions that shareholders would otherwise oppose?" Now, that is a question I have been turning over in my head, since I voted no, and was the primary reason why it felt a bit wrong voting no.
I wrote questions to IR using their website. I had to put in a passcode embedded in a picture to get it to send. I gave them about two weeks to respond, which they did not. I then voted no to 3,4,&5. It was a mixed decision for me, but then I figured either it really didn't matter or they could request again with an explanation.
Lucky you, my order never filled I have a limit at 1.11, my lucky number
Clinton's tweet on high drug prices sent biotech stocks down today.
Interesting- I also saw this article for Bristol yesterday,"Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. shares had their second-biggest rally since March and bullish options trading surged on speculation the company is a takeover candidate. The drugmaker’s cancer and heart treatments would make it an interesting acquisition for Gilead Sciences Inc., though it could be too big to absorb without affecting the larger company’s identity, analysts at Piper Jaffray said Friday in a research note. Gilead had a market value of $159 billion as of Friday’s close, compared with Bristol-Myers’ $107 billion."
If we follow management's phase 3 projections- every one will hear about pphm upon data reveal
Did pancreatic have a first and second look-in by an independent monitoring committee? Did investors have knowledge of how many sites were opened by certain dates?
"I think I am impressed." Thank you, I think.
I disagree, I think MD is correct - that once enrollment is completed and first look-in is announced- the stock will move. Perhaps now til December is the most risky?
I ran an updated more realistic simulation. I show that if we go past 12-15 for first look in we have a good chance that we may be beating opdivo results. My initial simulation did not take into account that the OS is a median and 10% will live greater than 5 years and 30% will live > year. My guess now is that pphm management is projecting better than opdivo results or they are taking into account slowness to report first look-in triggers or not including earlier events than the median or initial enrollment is slower than this simulation. See code below- this simulation shows dec and April for first and send look in. When I did not take into account earlier than median events - this showed jan 2016 and May 2016.
I don't have a lot of time to do this as my days are really busy, so if you see anything that needs to be reworked- let me know.
-- new simulation shows - with 77% of the enrollment following the median OS of
-- 8 vs 10 and 10.7 vs 15 OS months (sicker vs healthier and doce vs doce & bavi
-- and 11% do not event > 5 years study = 69 = 11%
-- and 30% - 11% = 21% live to 20 months = 125
--
-- simulation table simulates enrollment per month only
TRUNCATE TABLE simulation;
CREATE TABLE simulation
(
enroll_month DATE,
days_in_month NUMBER,
number_enrolled NUMBER
);
BEGIN
-- insert into simulation values ('01-FEB-2014',null,2);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-MAR-2014', NULL, 4);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-APR-2014', NULL, 10);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-MAY-2014', NULL, 28);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-JUN-2014', NULL, 26);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-JUL-2014', NULL, 31);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-AUG-2014', NULL, 31);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-SEP-2014', NULL, 31);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-OCT-2014', NULL, 32);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-NOV-2014', NULL, 33);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-DEC-2014', NULL, 34);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-JAN-2015', NULL, 35);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-FEB-2015', NULL, 34);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-MAR-2015', NULL, 44);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-APR-2015', NULL, 33);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-MAY-2015', NULL, 32);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-JUN-2015', NULL, 31);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-JUL-2015', NULL, 23);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-AUG-2015', NULL, 23);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-SEP-2015', NULL, 23);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-OCT-2015', NULL, 24);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-NOV-2015', NULL, 15);
INSERT INTO simulation
VALUES ('01-DEC-2015', NULL, 8);
END;
COMMIT;
SELECT SUM (number_enrolled) FROM simulation;
UPDATE simulation
SET days_in_month = TO_CHAR (LAST_DAY (enroll_month), 'DD');
COMMIT;
SELECT * FROM simulation;
DROP TABLE simulation_mos;
CREATE TABLE simulation_mos
(
pk NUMBER,
mos NUMBER (4, 2),
category_name VARCHAR2 (50)
);
BEGIN
INSERT INTO simulation_mos
VALUES (1, 15.0, 'best ecog 0 healthy bavi');
INSERT INTO simulation_mos
VALUES (2, 10.7, 'ecog 0 healthy no bavi');
INSERT INTO simulation_mos
VALUES (3, 10.0, 'ecog 1 unhealthy bavi'); -- changed from 9.7 to 10
INSERT INTO simulation_mos
VALUES (4, 8.0, 'worst ecog 1 unhealthy no bavi');
COMMIT;
END;
DROP TABLE full_simulation;
-- full simulation calculates a date of event based on the simulation mos ok assigned
--then randomized portions of these buckets per overall known trends
CREATE TABLE full_simulation
(
pk_id NUMBER,
dt_enrolled DATE,
dt_event DATE,
simulation_mos_pk NUMBER
);
CREATE SEQUENCE test3_pk START WITH 1;
TRUNCATE TABLE simulation;
DECLARE
beg_mon DATE;
end_mon DATE;
cur_mon DATE;
enrolled_for_month NUMBER;
enroll_counter NUMBER;
days_for_month NUMBER;
month_day NUMBER;
mos_pk_counter NUMBER := 1;
BEGIN
SELECT MIN (enroll_month), MAX (enroll_month)
INTO beg_mon, end_mon
FROM simulation;
cur_mon := beg_mon;
WHILE cur_mon <= end_mon
LOOP
SELECT number_enrolled, days_in_month
INTO enrolled_for_month, days_for_month
FROM simulation
WHERE TRUNC (cur_mon) = TRUNC (enroll_month);
enroll_counter := 1;
month_day := 1;
WHILE enroll_counter <= enrolled_for_month
LOOP
INSERT INTO full_simulation
VALUES (
test3_pk.NEXTVAL,
TO_DATE (
TO_CHAR (cur_mon, 'MM')
|| '/'
|| month_day
|| '/'
|| TO_CHAR (cur_mon, 'YYYY'),
'MM/DD/YYYY'),
NULL,
mos_pk_counter);
enroll_counter := enroll_counter + 1;
month_day := month_day + 1;
mos_pk_counter := mos_pk_counter + 1;
IF mos_pk_counter = 5
THEN
mos_pk_counter := 1;
END IF;
IF month_day = days_for_month
THEN
month_day := 1;
END IF;
END LOOP;
cur_mon := ADD_MONTHS (cur_mon, 1);
END LOOP;
END;
COMMIT;
-- set 30% to no event, the rest get OS median event
UPDATE full_simulation fs
SET dt_event =
(SELECT (sm.mos * 30.437) + fs.dt_enrolled
FROM simulation_mos sm
WHERE fs.simulation_mos_pk = sm.pk)
WHERE EXISTS
(SELECT 1
FROM simulation_mos sm
WHERE fs.simulation_mos_pk = sm.pk)
AND MOD (fs.pk_id, 3) IN (0, 1);
COMMIT;
-- set 65% of no event to 20 months out update 125 members of the no event
update full_simulation fs
set dt_event = 20 * 30.437 + fs.dt_enrolled
where dt_event is null and mod(fs.pk_id,100) between 0 and 64;
commit;
-- update 40 out of 196 bavi matients extra to event 20 months out based on
-- 20 %of bavi patients living longer
commit;
update full_simulation fs
set dt_event = 20 * 30.437 + fs.dt_enrolled
where exists ( select 1 from simulation_mos sm
where SM.PK = FS.SIMULATION_MOS_PK and SM.PK in (1,3)
and dt_event = (sm.mos * 30.437) + fs.dt_enrolled )
and mod(fs.pk_id,100) between 0 and 20
and fs.simulation_mos_pk in (1,3);
commit;
-- update 20% to live 2 months < OS (44 patients)and 10% to live 3 months < OS where dt_event is median OS)
UPDATE full_simulation fs
SET dt_event =
(SELECT ((sm.mos -2) * 30.437) + fs.dt_enrolled
FROM simulation_mos sm
WHERE fs.simulation_mos_pk = sm.pk
and dt_event = (sm.mos * 30.437) + fs.dt_enrolled)
WHERE EXISTS
(SELECT 1
FROM simulation_mos sm
WHERE fs.simulation_mos_pk = sm.pk
and dt_event = (sm.mos * 30.437) + fs.dt_enrolled)
and mod(fs.pk_id,100) between 0 and 20;
commit;
UPDATE full_simulation fs
SET dt_event =
(SELECT ((sm.mos -3) * 30.437) + fs.dt_enrolled
FROM simulation_mos sm
WHERE fs.simulation_mos_pk = sm.pk
and dt_event = (sm.mos * 30.437) + fs.dt_enrolled)
WHERE EXISTS
(SELECT 1
FROM simulation_mos sm
WHERE fs.simulation_mos_pk = sm.pk
and dt_event = (sm.mos * 30.437) + fs.dt_enrolled)
and mod(fs.pk_id,100) between 21 and 30;
commit;
SELECT sm.mos, sm.category_name, median(months_between(dt_event,dt_enrolled)) FROM full_simulation fs, simulation_mos sm
where SM.PK = FS.SIMULATION_MOS_PK
group by sm.mos, sm.category_name;
SQL Statement which produced this data:
-- this shows median is pretty exact with this simulation
SELECT sm.mos, sm.category_name, median(months_between(dt_event,dt_enrolled)) FROM full_simulation fs, simulation_mos sm
where SM.PK = FS.SIMULATION_MOS_PK
group by sm.mos, sm.category_name;
MOS,CATEGORY_NAME,MEDIAN(MONTHS_BETWEEN(DT_EVENT,DT_ENROLLED))
8,'worst ecog 0 unhealthy no bavi',8
10,'ecog 1 unhealthy bavi',10
15,'best ecog 0 healthy bavi',15
10.7,'ecog 0 healthy no bavi',10.6992226702509
SELECT * FROM full_simulation fs, simulation_mos sm
where SM.PK = FS.SIMULATION_MOS_PK and SM.PK in (1,3)
and dt_event = (sm.mos * 30.437) + fs.dt_enrolled
order by dt_enrolled;
-- 193 events for first look in, and 292 events for second look-in n=585
-- 12/16 for first look-in, 4/16 for second look-in
SELECT COUNT (*)
FROM full_simulation
WHERE dt_event < ADD_MONTHS (SYSDATE, 7);
SELECT COUNT (*)
FROM full_simulation
WHERE dt_event IS NULL;
No, I'm not implying that. I'm implying that the combo of no first look-in and enrollment completion can give savvy investors an idea of how the trial is going. The big risk at this point for non/gambler type investors is this is a binary event investment based on one drug.
I know several have pointed out that pancreatic was similar- people were guessing that pancreatic was doing far better with OS because of the 8 month data lag between enrollment completion and data result announcements. However, in this case we have a first and second look-in with clearly defined event percentages. This in combo with enrollment completion can give some information on some level of probability of success. Shan stated that the company will tell us when the first look-in occurs as soon as possible.
I think, once enrollment completion is announced in December, this stock is going to move north rapidly. At that point, if no first look-in is announced prior to the enrollment completion, I would say there is a very high probability that bavi is working very well. Because the binary event will now be a lower risk, I will be shocked if this stock doesn't start moving north by December's enrollment announcement.
"Northtide baker brothers and Sabby all waiting on fully enrolled."
Smart move, if no first look-in by the time full enrollment is announced, bavi is working fairly close to the company's projections. We may be looking at a first look-in within a month or two from this full enrollment announcement (January-February 2016) and a second look-in 5 months later (May-June).
I thought it was Shan and he stated first look in early 2016 and second look in mid 2016 based on general predictions of how the patients might do.
This is interesting, the article doesn't specifically state which DEP AZN is licensing. However, DEP Docetaxel could provide fewer side effects and less toxicity. I was wondering how they were planning on combining their drug with bavi and docetaxel without increasing toxicity- maybe this is how?
I have been thinking about this - your statement that enrollment is not going well. I think many predicted first look-in based on OS of phase 2 rather than other recent similar phase 3 trials. In addition, when using a flat median number for projections, this does not take into account that half the patients live longer than the median. If you look at this data more in depth, I think the projections Shan stated make a lot of sense with enrollment actually doing very well.
Congrats realist - so tell me again, what will the pps be Dec 31 2015 vs Sept 31 2016?
Theory - when you mention black tea party - are you referring to the political movement?
Oh yeah - wookie I caught that too and was going to mention it last night when I read the transcript, but figured there was either something wrong with the transcript or the speakers made a slippage of words?