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This is awesome! From Adam's same article:
By that logic, every single publicly traded company would have massive short interest the way that Northwest bio does. Is that the case? No, this is not your normal situation. There is far more going on here than just an option covering with short interest. There's a lot of money at stake on the short side, and people who short stocks professionally usually do far more due diligence than your average retail investor.
$50,000,000 worth of shares short by numerous investors.
$25,000,000 investment from a single shareholder.
Anyone feel like something is off? This growing count of short shares as a price consolidates concerns me greatly!
Anyone care to explain why would people go short - and not even covering(!) - on a stock that isn't showing a decline any longer?
Take a bow. You nailed the issue with this stock as an investment 100%. People forget that they are investing in the company as much as they are in the science. !-> If one side fails, the other can't make up for it. And it goes for both sides of the equation. Dendreon is a great example of this: company failed, the science couldn't save it!
So investors must demand that leadership executes BOTH parts well if you want to protect your investment.
Yes, I am all of those.
Add "Because I was sucked into the hype, and I could have invested in hundreds of other companies that would have made me money in 2014. And so I'm pissed and critical of a company that has made bad business decisions over and over again...oh, and I have a right to state it if I want to." and your list will be complete.
Yes, she would have said by end of Q1 if that were the case, so you can bet it's past March.
But don't forget, we're talking about Linda 'time-means-nothing-to-me' Powers. She made statements at the beginning of these taking "about 9-12 months", and in the middle of the year as "by end of the year", so you may be treated to yet another unexplained or unjustified extension at any moment!
Too bad they don't have an experienced CFO to work on this. He/she would have paid for themselves if they could have expedited the process...wonder why Linda doesn't want one. Probably means nothing. Forget I mentioned it.
Awesome! NWBO continues to meet my expectations.
Expanding -L trial...again! YEA!
When I do the math, the 55 arm seems to have no better results than that study you linked to. Maybe that's why no info.
$20M? That's all? Well, since she owns well over 20M shares, I guess she's safe even if this goes to $1. Would any of you be in the same boat?
No downside for Linda while she collects over $350k in yearly salary. Come on...let's stretch those trials out...they are, after all, being paid for with other people's money.
If I was her financial adviser, I would say she is setting herself up quite nicely for retirement, no matter what the outcome here. Even if NWBO goes belly up, she can sell Cognate (and all of it's significant assets) to another Immuno company and be just fine.
Good for her.
Continuing the theme of "How To Actually Run A BioTech Company":
Kite Pharma Expands Senior Management Team With Appointment of Claudine Prowse, Ph.D., as SVP, Corporate Communications and Investor Relations
NWBO's Communications VP? Ran a college cancer charity website and is a "Nationally Ranked!" fitness trainer.
https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=19743703&authType=NAME_SEARCH&authToken=7L0F&locale=en_US&srchid=241534891420821741706&srchindex=1&srchtotal=1&trk=vsrp_people_res_name&trkInfo=VSRPsearchId%3A241534891420821741706%2CVSRPtargetId%3A19743703%2CVSRPcmpt%3Aprimary
And you wonder, really?, why big investment houses are staying away and nobody cares about this company?
Anyone looked at the KITE chart lately since they went public? The next time you check out your investment account, do yourself a favor and calculate how much money you technically lost by having it sit and wallow in NWBO for the last year instead of investing it in a company that knows how to create real investor interest.
Yep! Totally agree. You want to know why institutional investors would hold back? When they see AUDIT RISK on a 10k/q, it's like bug repellent to them. The situation doesn't matter; their policies will often force them to ignore stocks in this risk situation...and let's tell it like it is: Having no second eye control on the finances is pretty much as bad of an audit risk as one can have.
If this does turn out to be a play for LP in some way, I assure you there will be an article published stating "one of the biggest red flags that should have alerted investors that something was up was lack of a CFO". Guaranteed.
NWBO: Fail.
Seems that our friendly Dr. Marc Siegel, the original TV doctor who talked about DCVAX, couldn't care less anymore. Take note: He had the time...and makes a specific point!...to call out PDL1! Why didn't he mention DCVax?
So many people here are so absurdly good at reading into things, how do you read into this? Looking forward to the positive spin.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/3963227537001/experimental-treatment-uses-immune-system-to-fight-cancer/?#sp=show-clips
Sorry...is this good enough DD? I would hate to be criticized (again) for not providing valuable information.
I get your position, since you are clearly a scientist before you are an investor...so you think if we don't speak about the science, then we aren't doing due dil.
But some, at least I, have done my DD...around the company. Because I am an investor first. I don't care about the science from an investment standpoint, I care about how the company is run. Just like people who invest in Bank Of America don't care about their IRAs, or people who invest in Corning don't care about their glass. They care about the way the company is run to add value to their investments.
Seems like our DD around the company gets dismissed because it doesn't fit into what SOME people think is important. If we speak about diluted shares, or an Audit risk by having no CFO, or a PR nightmare by duking it out with a well-known bio-tech analyst, then we must be FUD pushers...no, we are critically analyzing our investment. In other words, some of us care about this investment like we would all other investments. Is there something wrong with that?
I was kidding.
Deserves a sticky...well said.
Could not have said it better myself. I've had plenty of good things to say about NWBO, but unless it's all the time, everytime, I'm clearly here to be "evil".
Ridiculous.
Well, I have about 30,000 shares (is that enough for you to stop questioning me?)...which is why I AM so critical. If I had none, I would be elsewhere. I don't waste my life posting on message boards that mean nothing to the stock price for ya-yas.
That's why I love when people say "You're just spreading FUD to scare people into selling."
First of let me just say LOLOLOL!!!! Why is that so funny? Because even if every person on this board sold all their shares, the stock price wouldn't move 15 cents (and then go right back to where it was). So, please! The very idea that anyone here who is critical is meeting some "agenda" to somehow lower the stock price is both insane and, frankly, ignorant.
So, now you should ask yourself, if it's not to scare people out of shares, why be critical. BECAUSE YOU SHOULD BE! That's what will keep you from losing your tail if everything goes South.
Ironically, I'm trying to help some of you. Of course, some of you have a problem seeing it that way.
These agendas are not a mystery: These folks own the stock and they want the price to go up no matter what. Not that difficult to see who has intelligent investing mindsets and who are operating with permanent blinders on.
If NWBO fails and goes to zero, will they still be so pleased? Will they admit they failed to look critically at their investments? No. They will probably say "But management said..." and blame someone else for losing all their money.
I know, because I used to be that guy 20 years ago. I learned the hard way and changing my mindset has saved me more than once.
Every investment has risk, even companies themselves admit - are REQUIRED to admit - that these exist. Even not having a CFO is a risk (NWBO admits this!) but some choose to remain ignorant...otherwise they would have to say "I was wrong."
But better to be wrong and still have your money to invest in the next "big" thing than be wrong and broke.
Not anywhere near the level they did it...and not when they aren't even making a dime yet.
So I might disagree with framing this particular situation as "common".
Here's the difference: Internal management can fully offset the dilution that occurs when they raise money (and just did to the tune of millions of shares) by awarding themselves stock (which FURTHER dilutes the shares!). You and I just get our share value diluted 30, 40 and 50 percent and counting. Period.
So anyone that is naive enough to think we're all in the same boat really doesn't understand how this system works. I'm not referring to anyone specifically, but I've heard that said on this board...many times.
HA! You're not really somebody until you get blocked by his Twitter account AND blocked from commenting on the Street. Let me know when you've reached that milestone.
This is how this reads to me: "Here's the latest update, which isn't much more than things you already know. We're signing off for the year. See you in 2015."
Unfortunate. Gonna be sitting in the 4's and 5's for a while.
I don't think so. I think many people here are investing for their own reasons. Telling it like it is.
Not sure what you mean by all this, but my motivation is to simply have a discussion/debate about investments with some folks here. I have no motivation. Like Pyrr says in every one of his posts: I'd offer you advice, but I just don't care about your money, unless you give me money to care about your money. I might even be tricking you with the above post...
Um, take a look at your last reply to me (on what was a serious question) and you tell me who is being inappropriate. Before you throw a stone...check your attitude before you judge mine.
I give what I get, so you can always know how you are being perceived. Reply to me respectfully and you will get it in return.
I agree with you. They could, but that would be mighty expensive and NWBO is contractually obligated as well to work with Cognate as well. In addition, millions...let me stress TENS OF MILLIONS...of $ have been pumped into Cognate to build out facilities that support NWBO DCVax programs specifically...on a global scale.
Would it be safe to say that someone who would want to buy NWBO would want to own the whole nut? NWBO and Cognate...most of these big players do not outsource manufacturing. So it is reasonable to say this:
NWBO is worth something because they own the patents, but Cognate owns a lot of NWBO AND the manufacturing income. So buying out Cognate would make sense for any of the players who could actually front billions for a deal, wouldn't you say (as someone who seems to know how this industry works)?
Otherwise, Cognate (Linda), would be taking a big portion of the "margin" on every sale and could hold the buyer hostage on pricing, and we all know that isn't going to happen.
Thoughts? (and FYI - I'm really just asking Pyrr)
Even though NWBO does none of it's own manufacturing?!? It's just an office in Maryland and owns none of the production. Please elaborate.
P.S. This is what a message board is for...healthy discussion and debate. Some others here may not recognize it, so pay attention.
Had a very interesting discussion with a friend of mine at an investment firm. He was well aware of NWBO. So, I have a question for the most zealous supporters of NWBO (pyrr, I'm looking at you):
Would it be fair to say that NWBO would be nothing without Cognate? In other words, if Cognate just said "We're not going to produce your DCVax any longer.", would NWBO be screwed?
HUMOR ME HERE - I don't need your sanity arguments just yet - it is a simple yes or no question that I will follow up on.
Soooo...I should invest in other stocks because I think there is only a 50% return on NWBO in around two years?!? Good gravy! Sometimes I wonder if NWBO is the first investment for many here. Sure seems like it.
Ok, sorry, let me correct myself: NWBO will be $255 stock by the end of 2015. In other words, I see a 5000% upside! The rest of the market - people who do this for a living day in and day out and make more in a year at it than most people do in 5 years - are ignorant and stupid. My 30k+ shares are going to be worth $7.6 million! Go NWBO!
I just pray that some of the posters here have very little invested in NWBO. Because the way its talked about it, it's clear to me that many hold this all the way to $0.10 (like DNDN) just because you believe. Guess what...I won't...and I'll have the bulk of my money to invest another day because of it.
Maybe I should be telling each of YOU to invest somewhere else based on your "gonna make me a bazillion $ with NWBO" statements...and I probably should...but I don't. So maybe y'all should do the same when I put something out there that is well within the realm of possibly and, quite frankly, more reflective of how 99.9% of all investments turn out: reasonable.
25% annual return on investment. I'll take it....gladly...and so would people who aren't on the I-Hub crazy pills and work in the offices of NWBO. Thanks.
As I said in the post: it's a half a % (.5%) $25m/$5B. My position is still that this shows very little commitment to a stock. I erred when I wrote a half % as .05%...it's .5%
Let's be clear...he is a biotech investor: He loses more often than he wins on individual stocks, but when he wins, he wins big...that's why he's successful.
So the NWBO investment is a good thing, but it is far less important to him than it seems to be to most of you.
Remember this: He is just playing the odds with .05% of the money he has to invest...That it! A half a %. How many of those here have less than 1% of your investment money with NWBO. Based on what I read, absolutely no one.
In other words, if any one of the members of this board only invested that little of your own money, I would say you weren't all that confident...so why would anyone here claim that Mr. Woodford is?
Think about it.
If they sold for $9, he would be up over 50% on his investment. Does anyone think he wouldn't take that as a fund manager??? Heck yes he would.
I'm not saying NWBO is going to Zero, but the incentives are being chipped away (and it seems like very few of the posters here care).
Here's a little dose of reality:
CLDX lost 81 million $ last year...they are a $1.87 billion market cap today with no better prospects than NWBO.
Why?
Because they don't do things that raise doubts in the marketplace...period.
You can not like me or what I write all you want, but frankly this stock should be at $20/share. LP's handling of the market and failure to do little things (like hire a CFO for crying out loud!!!) is why you all aren't swimming in $.
Nailed it! AND (since they didn't have to buy those shares), they can sell the company for $1/share and still be millionaires from it. You all seem to be forgetting this. When awarding shares to themselves, ANY selling price is a profit.
Think it doesn't happen? Here's a little store about a company called On2 Technologies (ONT). In 2007. execs at On2 awarded themselves and the board millions of shares just for showing up to work even though they weren't making any money and the stock price was floundering (sound familiar?). This was when the price was ~$6. They sold to Google a year later...wait for it...for $1.29. Of course, this still made all those execs multi-millionaires.
Note: It was SUCH a fiasco and so many retail shareholders sued that Google came back with a better offer even after the deal was approved by the board...at $1.79 a share (making them even richer of course). There is STILL a message board of pissed off ONT investors who believed in the company and it's management.
Will that be this board a year from now? I sure hope not...I like most of you.