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WE are all looking forward to the release of data from the pivotal study of COVI-MSC in Covid ARDS patients from Brazil!
But we should remember that not all MSCs are the same.
There are a variety of sources for the MSCs(Mesenchymal Stem Cells).
There are BM-MSCs(Bone Marrow derived MSCs).
There are UC-MSCs(Umbilical Cord derived MSCs).
And there are Sorrento's A-MSCs(Adipose derived MSCs).
The following article discusses MSCs and points out some possible advantages of Sorrento's A-MSCs.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7232924/
Great post 1776 ... as is chuck's!
"Announcements we should expect:
1) results of AMG and DROPS trials with > 90% reduced hospitalization along with announced full efficacy against omicron
2) results of MSC trial with greater than 95% survival of late stage ARDS
3) full readouts on SP-102 and submission for NDA
4) approval in China of Abivertinib for NSCLC
5) approvals for Lee Pharma biobetter
6) global partnerships for Abivertinib
7) manufacturing registration of SRNE for STIX and EUA by FDA
8) partnership with amgen on Sofusa LDS
9) IND on MPI8 and phased multiple trials for P1, P2, P3 progression
10) many others…so many items are on deck for near terms pivotal results…
What PR will turn the tide and send this stock to the moon?"
Most Sorrento investors believe in the 2-4 year potential. But there could be a lot of amazing news in the next 2-6 weeks. And if they are discussing a broad partnership with 2 or 3 BP's interested, the bidding war outcome would be amazing. The top 34 items listed on the recently updated portfolio are extremely impressive! I don't know any other small biotech with a comparable top rate portfolio!
I expect ABIVERTINIB and SEMDEXA each to be super-blockbusters. But the first blockbuster may turn out to be the much ridiculed COVISTIX. Sales have just started to ramp up but IMO could exceed 100 million a month by year end. That could fund entire Sorrento pipeline this year! Not too shabby!
FACT: Sorrento has a pipeline full of blockbusters.
https://sorrentotherapeutics.com/research/pipeline/
FACT: The top 10 Big Pharmas need to refill their pipelines.
FACT: The top 10 Big Pharmas have hundreds of $Billions available.
FACT: Dr. Ji probably does not want to sell at this time.
FACT: In these circumstances an hostile bid is very possible.
FACT: Sorrento has signaled they are looking for big partnerships.
FACT: A Genentech/Roche style partnership followed by Buyout is possible.
Here's another interesting Paulsnowman post...
"...there are several outcomes near to hand that should catapult the SP upwards.
1.SP102 full readout (so far we’ve only had topline)
2.Socazolimab China NMPA Approval (expected this month)
3. Abivertinib (NSCLC) China NMPA Approval (application was over a year ago)
4. MSC Brazil EUA (US is likely, but FDA may want to stretch trials to P3 outcome before EUA)
The first 4 outcomes are highly likely, and within Jan / Feb timeframe. While a Abivertinib partnership is highly likely, and SRNE PR over 7 months ago that it’s looking for a global partnership there is no clear timeframe or which BP they maybe in discussions with.
5. Any sale / partnership Abivertinib / mAB / Sofusa / Biobetters / STIX with a BP
6. Actual STIX numbers / cost / revenue / etc… but we’ll most likely have to wait until Annual 10k to get an idea or even 1st quarter earnings. Without actual numbers the naysayers (shorts) will keep on with the manipulation.
7. The actual approval / listing of SPAC will definitely move the SP (likely Feb / March - the biggest headache with SPACS is getting enough shareholders to ok the deal)
Note that SRNE can sell Celularity shares June / July."
Jess...I would guess very soon. But I expect Mexican, Brazilian and other worldwide sales will do very nicely to absorb as many COVISTIX as Sorrento can produce! The sales should be huge without the US!
Meanwhile I look forward to COVI-MSC, COVI-AMG and COVIDROPS data...That should be available soon!
It is great to have 2 programs bringing in revenue...BUT LOOK AT THE 6 IN PHASE 3/PIVOTAL! Huge earning potential!
SORRENTO has updated its pipeline page. It now lists the top 34 Covid, Cancer and Pain programs. There are now 2 programs on the market, 6 in phase3/pivotal, 4 in phase 2, 16 in phase 1 and 6 in pre-clinical. This is an extremely attractive portfolio! Big Pharma needs to replenish their pipelines. You can bet Sorrento is on their screen!
https://sorrentotherapeutics.com/research/pipeline/
We received a press release promising a Conference call and a new presentation this week.
We received neither!
What is going on?
We can only guess, but my guess is that Dr.Ji is caught up in Merger and Acquisition discussions. Ever since the ABIVERTINIB "teaser" news release we have only had minimal news release activity. Any ABIVERTINIB deal will be very big. And if those discussions expanded into a larger Cancer,Covid and Pain partnership...no wonder there are delays!
It is 6 1/2 months since Sorrento said they were seeking an ABIVERTINIB centered partnership. If Sorrento is looking at term sheets from several portfolio hungry BP's any news should be outstanding for Sorrento investors IMO!
Small biotech sector still declining. Sorrento earnings are still increasing. The market will catch up some day!
Sorrento wins tender to provide COVISTIX to MEXICO CITY!
MEXICO CITY population in 2021 was 21,918,936.
This is a big deal!
What partnership would cause a huge increase in share price?
Surely it would be the ABIVERTINIB centered $61 Billion "teaser"program.
To refresh your memory have a look at this...
https://investors.sorrentotherapeutics.com/static-files/22057ad8-3752-4ee7-a4de-b84a055c0764
It has been about 6 1/2 months since Sorrento first suggested such a partnership. If several BP's have shown interest it is nearing time for all the term sheets to have been shared...it is decision time!
However, if I was a BP I would like to see if Sorrento was interested in an overall partnership for all three portfolios (Cancer, Covid and Pain!). This would be the largest possible partnership...and probably be a step towards a Buyout (following the 2009 Genentech/Roche scenario).
Ever since the ABIVERTINIB "teaser" was issued the silence has been deafening. Sorrento does not leak information and neither do Big Pharmas!.
IT IS NOT AT ALL UNREASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST A HUGE ABIVERTINIB PARTNERSHIP OR POSSIBLY AN EVEN LARGER OVERALL PARTNERSHIP. I would be happy with either one!
MP18 is a drug Sorrento is developing in collaboration with Texas A&M as a broad spectrum anti-viral. They have reported that it is effective against Omicron!
MPI8 made the cover of ChemMedChem Jan.5 2022 issue!
https://chemistry-europe.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/cmdc.202100769
And here is the study.
https://chemistry-europe.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/cmdc.202100456
I agree with Paulsnowman's positive outlook for Q4 COVISTIX 2021 revenue!
"Akuasul is out of STIX stock (first time ever). This is the distributor in Mexico that the SRNE Mexico CEO Hector S. sister runs. It’s not a big distributor, but it was the first distributor that the message boards heard of selling STIX. I check on it a couple of times a week to see the quantity of stock. Earlier this week they had 8 boxes (25 tests in each) with a price (US $206.33 / 8.25 unit) that is higher then at our Brazilian distributor Futura, and yet 8 boxes sold out in a couple of days. SRNE probably has contracts with many regional distributors in Mexico. So is this being out of stock something or nothing at all? Well let’s see what we do know?
Sorrento Mexico had previously signed a contract with a leading LOCAL distributor for up to 5 million COVISTIX tests in Mexico (Nov 22nd)
Sorrento Mexico Executes Second Contract for Sale of 10 Million COVISTIX Tests with a LARGE distributor for Mexico Market (Dec. 27th)
Sorrento Receives Orders of COVISTIX for Commercial Launch in Brazil. In addition to the loading order, Sorrento’s local distribution partner has received an order from a large diagnostic laboratory in Brazil that collaborates with about 2,000 other smaller units across the country (Dec 6th)
DEMAND FOR STIX IS HIGH IN LATIN AMERICA & MEXICO.
Please note that FortuneBio, which SRNE has the option to purchase 51%, opened a second manufacturing facility because of huge diagnostic tests demand."
TEN January/February potential milestone news items
1. ABIVERTINIB $61 Billion global market partnership(s). There will be multi-billion upfront, milestone and royalty payments. There should be more news on cancer applications. And look to the partnership partners to become the eventual buyout actors. Remember the Genentech/Roche scenario!
2. SCILEX SPINOFF. More SEMDEXA data is due in January. This new treatment could gross $6-10 billion annually in the US alone!. The partner is a wealthy Singapore based venture capital firm.
3. COVISTIX REVENUE STREAM. Sales have recorded in Q4 of 2021 and will ramp up in Q1 of 2022. Europe, Central and South America, Canada, Japan and the US will follow. 30 million monthly test production near term!
4. COVIDROPS, COVI-MSC, COVISHIELD, SEMDEXA, ABIVERTINIB(cancer and Covid) news is expected in Q1 2022 as are more EUA's. SP-102 and ABIVERTINIB revenue expected in 2H of 2022.
5. COVIDROPS is in phase 2 in the US and UK. Soon to enter a pediatric trial in Mexico. An Interim analysis of the UK out-patient trial is expected in January.
6. COVI-MSC is in phase 2 trials in the US and Brazil The Brazilian study is pivotal. In Brazil it will be followed by a trial for long-haul Covid patients.
7. ORAL MP18 based PAN-COVID ANTI-VIRAL. A peer-reviewed publication was released showing strong pan-Covid activity (including Omicron). This could enter the clinic in Q1 or Q2. A world-wide development and marketing partner might be expected. Look for something better than Merck or Pfizer's drugs!
8. In Cancer Sorrento has more than 10 fully human antibodies in the clinic or late pre-clinical(PD-1, PD-L1, CD38, CD123, CD47,BCMA, TROP2, LAG3, CTLA-4 and CD137). An allogenic DAR-T, an anti-TROP2 ADC and a second generation oncolytic virus(Seprehvec) will enter the clinic as well as several additional ADNAB(Mayo Clinic) drugs.
9. Non-opioid RTX is in phase 2 for arthritic knee pain and will enter phase 2 for epidural delivery for severe cancer pain in Q1.
10. Sofusa will report on a phase 1 arthritis treatment in Q1. Meanwhile it is being tested in delivering cancer therapies including a collaboration with the Mayo Clinic to test lymphatic delivery.
I found this post interesting...
"The Fed's hawkish stance hurts in the short term. But consider this data from Bank of America on timing the market. "Looking at data going back to 1930, the firm found that if an investor missed the S&P's 10 best days each decade, the total return would stand at 28%. If the investor held steady through the ups and downs, the return would have been 17,715%." ALSO, "The market's best days typically follow the largest drops". No one knows how low we might drop, or when the market will switch to risk-on. But I'll definitely be invested and enjoy the big day that occurs on that turnaround."
Dr. Ji is being blamed for hexing the entire market! DOW down 400 points!
NASDAQ down over 500 points! He must also be affecting the polar icecap!
Why is Sorrento hiring/hired a Senior Marketing Manager for COVISTIX?
"WHAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR:
The Senior Marketing Manager will assist and help develop the promotion efforts of the marketing department. Responsible for providing marketing collateral and managing the branding efforts to successfully commercialize Sorrento’s new product (COVISTIX™). This role has the potential to grow in responsibility and will require a hands-on approach to job duties.
COVISTIX is a highly sensitive rapid antigen test for detecting SARS-CoV-2 that has demonstrated superior sensitivity at low levels of virus detection.
WHAT YOU’LL DO:
Successfully plan and launch Covistix in Point Of Care (POC) and at-home markets.
Conduct market, positioning, and pricing research.
Advance launch strategies for different segments and develop Brand Book.
Develop compelling marketing collateral to support launch for POC and at-home market use.
Provide expertise and direction to cross functional teams utilizing a hands-on approach.
Identify, assess, and prioritize POC targets, manage key relationships, and put contracts in place for the first phase of launch.
Responsible for marketing budgets and performance reporting.
Responsible for ensuring the team follows all SOP’s (Doc Control, Promotional Review Committee, etc.).
Other duties as assigned...."
Until they don't!
WHEN COVISTIX gets US approval it will enter a HOT market!
USA TODAY
COVID test prices increase at Walmart, Kroger as at-home rapid tests remain hard to find
Kelly Tyko, USA TODAY
Tue, January 4, 2022, 2:22 PM
Some COVID-19 at-home test kits will cost more – if you can find them.
Walmart, Kroger and Amazon had been selling over-the-counter tests "at cost" with a discount of up to 35% from retail prices for the last three months as part of a deal with the Biden administration.
Walmart said in a statement to USA TODAY that the program ended in mid-December, but that it held the price of the Abbott BinaxNOW kits at $14 through the holidays. The price increased to $19.88 on Tuesday for the two-test kits.
At Kroger, the price of the two-test BinaxNOW antigen kits is now $23.99.
“We fulfilled our commitment to the Biden Administration to sell at cost for 100 days and that pricing program has now phased out and retail pricing has been reinstated,” Kroger said in a statement to USA TODAY."
I think Sorrento's ABIVERTINIB $61 Billion market potential "teaser" would draw some Big Pharma interest! But any BP doing their dd on ABIVERTINIB would surely look at the entire Sorrento portfolio while they were at it. They could not miss the near term multi-billion SEMDEXA revenue stream...the world's largest anti-covid program...the blockbuster ADNAB,DAR-T, CAR-T, ADC and oncolytic virus programs!
This reminds me of the 2009 $47 Billion Roche acquisition of Genentech. This was two stage. First a very large partnership followed by the buy-out. It has paid off for Roche.
https://dashboards.trefis.com/no-login-required/gQPFxQfz?fromforbesandarticle=was-the-47-billion-acquisition-of-genentech-in-2009-a-good-deal-for-roche
I would not bet against a very similar partnership/buyout or just simple buyout occurring for Sorrento in 2022!
Paulsnowman keeps his eye on the ball! News expected this month!
"SP102 Fast Track. Keep Your Eyes On The Prize!
If the drug in development is designed to treat a condition where no current therapy exists, or has significant advantages over existing therapies.
Hmm, designed to treat a condition where no current therapy exists? The only non black label drug set to be approved THIS YEAR.
Significant advantages over current therapies? The only non opioid drug, that’s also well tolerated. I bet the doctors, hospitals, and insurers are going to love that.
Have you been watching the news anytime within the last year or more? People going to jail, and companies paying huge fines because of the opioid crisis. The media will eat the SP102 story up. Did I mention the only non opioid, non black label, and well tolerated drug? I did? Oops sorry, and it will have peer reviews to back it up.
The turnaround time to sales will be much faster then you think. Sales representatives in all 50 states plus territory managers already spreading the word. Sclilex can charge a high premium which Wall St will love with no competition. Estimated annual revenue is anywhere between $6-11B. Do the math X5=30-55B MC. Why do you think the Ji compensation grab?"
And I would add....that $6-11B sales is US alone. Rest of world is more than double that IMO.
I agree with the great potential for SOFUSA. They seem to be highlighting two programs. Anti-TNF to treat arthritis...and anti-PD1 against CTCL which is an orphan cancer indication. Elsewhere they have said that they have pre-clinical data on file from multiple pre-clinical studies involving etanercept, trastuzumab, CTLA-4, PD-1, and PD-L1.
Dr. Ji has his faults but IMO he is a master of acquisitions!
Paulsnowman always shares some interesting thoughts!
Here are some of his thoughts today.
"1.PD-L1 (China) - the NDA application was Nov 1, and there’s a 90 day window for approval response. So sometime Jan
2. Abivertinib NSCLC (China) - application was DEC 2020. Past due for approval response. Given SRNE BO ACEA I would expect they know the data is good, and approval expected.
3. Scilex - SPAC expected Feb / March. Should fully expect SP102 full readout before SPAC. Most likely Jan.
4. STIX - increased orders / contracts from MX and Brazil. 4th quarter earnings (Est. Feb 18) revenue estimate is 13M. I expect the actual numbers to be significantly higher.
On another note, you know that FortuneBio opened a second manufacturing facility because of the high demand for diagnostic tests. SRNE has the option to purchase 51% of FortuneBio. I wonder if SRNE exercised it?
Abivertinib NSCLC (US) approval likely this year, and let’s not forget that eventually there will be a BO / partnership.
Sofusa - it may be still in P1, but if the technology works with Enbrel (Amgen) you can expect a BO / partnership sooner than later.
In short know what you own. My antenna goes up when all someone ever talks about is a possible STIX US EUA / PSS Arbitration settlement. That’s the manipulation game. We have not one, but two blockbuster drug approvals likely this year. Note - we have the Longwood, HC Wainwright, and JP Morgan conferences all pretty much one after another. I would expect some type of news, and definitely a more updated presentation this week or next."
Looking for triple digits.
Biotechs are not for everyone.
No shame in taking $8 if you'd be happy.
Yeah. sure. Covid has gone away. Or never was. Or can be cured by injecting bleach. Whatever.
Will the next news be about COVISTIX EUA's or sales? Or will it be about SEMDEXA? Or about a ABIVERTINIB-centric partnership?
COVISTIX leads the way for Covid products.
SEMDEXA leads the way for pain products.
ABIVERTINIB leads the way for cancer products.
All 3 products have large blockbuster potential and all 3 are followed by other large potential products.
COVISTIX sales can pave the way for ABIVERTINIB(ARDS), COVI-AMG, COVISHIELD, COVI-MSC and COVIDROPS.
SEMDEXA sales can pave the way for SP-103, SP-104, RTX(cancer pain), and RTX(arthritic pain).
ABIVERTINIB can pave the way for a dozen ADNAB(Mayo Clinic) drugs, a dozen DAR-T drugs and various other ADC's and an oncolytic virus.
Owning Sorrento is owning 3 multi-blockbuster portfolios in one company!
Sorrento's cancer portfolio is outstanding.
1. ABIVERTINIB(3rd gen.BTK) multi-billion potential in a dozen cancers
2. ADNAB(Mayo Clinic) in a dozen cancers
3. CAR-T's and ADC's in a dozen cancers
4. DAR-T in a dozen cancers
5. second generation Oncolytic virus in a dozen cancers
Yes that is a very interesting second generation oncolytic virus loaded with very important I/O elements. I can see it being used along with a systemic(SOFUSA delivered?) anti-CTLA4. And in the latest list of Mabs I noted that Sorrento now lists an anti-CTLA4. A second generation anti-CTLA4 can be powerful!
Blackrock has over 20 million SRNE shares. Who is Blackrock?
BlackRock, Inc. is an American multinational investment management corporation based in New York City. Founded in 1988, initially as a risk management and fixed income institutional asset manager, BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with US$9.5 trillion in assets under management as of October, 2021.
Do you wonder what is happening to Sorrento(and other small biotech!) share price?
It is not magic. Big Institutions control the share price. In Sorrento's case, the worlds largest institutions!
When they want the price to go down so that they can accumulate, they take it down.
When they decide it is time to take it up, they take it up.
Big institutions have more information than retail investors.
Big institutions have billions more dollars at play than retail investors.
We can only do our dd! It tells us that there is a ton of good news coming in 2022. Relax and enjoy the ride!
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Jess, many on these boards don't own any shares. They disappear when the share price goes up. The entire biotech sector is down. Many great buys available...but none better than SRNE IMO! Looking forward to an outstanding 2022! All the best to you and all Sorrentonians!
Another insightful post by Paulsnowmam!
"SRNE. AMGEN. ENBREL & 2 SUPER BLOCKBUSTERS (SP102 / ABIVERTINIB)
Great article from BIOPHARMA DIVE about AMGEN, and Its super blockbuster drug Enbrel. Enbrel and Sorrento’s device Sofusa DoseConnect are currently part of a clinical trial.
clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show...
Drugmakers often gauge the potential of their products by whether annual sales can eclipse $1 billion. Large pharmaceutical companies have a handful of these “blockbusters,” while successful biotechs might have one or two. SORRENTO a biotech under 2B MC has two potential super blockbusters (over 10B) in SP102 and Abivertinib (NSCLC) which should be approved in 2022. When including Abivertinib as a super blockbuster, I included it’s indications in which we should see approval or EUA (NSCLC / 5656.
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/amgen-enbrel-patent-thicket-monopoly-biosimilar/609042/
There are many reasons to invest in SRNE. There’s been a lack of focus and mismanagement by the company, and long term manipulation by outside parties, but for those investors that do their research there are many obvious reasons this is not your normal small biotech company. For those inpatient investors remember that in 2022, and not 3-5 years down the line, there will be not one but two approvals, and a likely EUA.
We should get more SP102 data in January, and hopefully ACEA Abivertinib China approval as well. Both of these are significant, and will move the SP. Happy New Year."
Dr. Ji mixing with the big players.
Longwood Healthcare Leaders webconference(invitation only)
January 6, 2022
11:50 am PT / 2:50 pm ET | HOW M&A SPURS INNOVATION
Mark Enyedy, CEO, ImmunoGen; Henry Ji, CEO, Sorrento Therapeutics; Rachna Khosla, SVP, BD, Amgen; Stuart Mackey, Global Head, BD, Daiichi Sankyo
Moderator: Chad Shear, Principal, Fish & Richardson
https://www.longwoodhealthcareleaders.com/jan2022
Analysts continue to amaze me! H.C.Wainwright has a $26 target while assigning no value to the Covid portfolio! COVISTIX sales are already increasing and big news is coming for COVIDROPS, COVISHIELD and COVI-MSC. COVISTIX sales alone in Mexico, Brazil and Europe could easily be in the hundreds of millions...and Canadian and US approvals can come any day. Sorrento is ramping up manufacture to provide 30 million kits a month IN THE NEAR TERM and potentially over 100 million a month to meet global demand.
Analyst targets are obsolete NOW!
Just a reminder for everyone to take their medications.
Some insights from Paulsnowman...
"The last day for harvesting your tax losses is Friday, December 31. So we will probably see more volatility unfortunately for the week, but there’s just one catch if your harvesting. You may miss out on SRNE’s potential January rebound with the 30 days wait rule unless you took the loss in November.
Consider this, we’ll probably get updates on Covidrop interim results, AMG P2 trial results?, MSC news, potential STIX EUA US / Canada EUA s (plus more contract info from Brazil / Mexico, potential Abivertinib BO / partnership, potential minority partnership in SRNE?, etc… January is choke full of potential news, and the one conference I’m interested in and that’s invite only is the Longwood conference (Jan 6th). Ji will be speaking about M & A. That being said, we’ll most likely have continued volatility throughout the week."