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Semi index new high today @ ^SOX 4680
Anyone short SNOW ?
I've always hated these software stocks with 100-200 PEs going forward. Now the company says adjusted operating margins coming down from 9% to 6%, with revenues light for the April qtr as well ! I mean the stock was selling at a 200 PE going forward already- now what ? Of course there is so much manipulation out there that the stock may actually hold around $180, even though the stock is only worth $50 at most.
KIK having SOXS makes me more confident
that a correction is near. I mean I don't ever remember him playing a short on anything, yet a triple leveraged short ! Thing is, KIK has the best track record in the pick 4 contests, so just another reason to take a shot in a very over extended sector.
R59- exploiting inefficiencies
I completely agree that even if there were a tiny advantage/disadvantage holding into earnings, that it would be quickly disappear with sophisticated algorithms. However I still find it interesting, when you Google "holding into earnings studies", that there are none to be found. Anyway, thanks for sharing about your strategy. I must say we are different in our approaches. I mean I would love to hold a stock for more than just short term, as long term capital gains are substantially less. However in buying stocks since 2004(since on this board), I rarely have found a stock that doesn't disappoint at some point over four straight quarterly earnings reports, resulting in me selling the stock, as it's no longer under valued.
I mean, my strategy is to find undervalued stocks, and then sell them when they get to fair value. A simple strategy, but the question of fair value is surely debatable. I mean my method attempts to make investing into as much of a science as possible, despite there being no exact science. Thing is, my method worked like a charm from 2004 to 2017 or so, as I had many multi bagger wins, and I was averaging huge yearly gains during that period. Of course I would have made out better if I had held certain stocks for years, but everything is 20/20 in hindsight, and my method of selling a stock when it gets to fair value, has kept me short term 90% of the time anyway. So I guess I'm a short term trader, and not an investor, but it's worked well for me for many years. I did have a few long term holds through the years though ie AGM, UVE, and lately GERN. AGM & UVE were in fact my most successful plays in both dollar gains and % gains, while GERN has been real dud so far ! So I guess I am open to hold a stock long term, just about finding one that can keep growing, and not disappoint too bad along the way.
Updated portfolio
GERN 40000 shares
SOXS 29274.33 shares
Cash $118902
Updated
PRIM sold off 9% yesterday lows/back up today
This one was sickening to watch. I mean the stock sold off from
$42 after hours Monday to $37 yesterday, and back to $39.50 today- for no good reason I could find. The stock finished the day on Monday around $40.50, so overall the stock is down $1 after the earnings report Monday for Q4. Personally I think the stock is a hold at best, as growth went from 20% expected to guidance of 10.5% expected for 2024. PE is low around 12, but it's always been around 12 going forward. IMO the stock is worth $40, which is about where it's at now. PRIM is a quality stock, but a super slow mover, and now that the stock is up over 100% from the lows last year, I would let it go- which is what I did at $40.50 after hours.
Sell HALO @ $39.36
Sell 2000 HALO @ $39.36 = $78,720
R59- I understand
IMO however, there was no way to know for sure what the odds of holding into earnings really were until I did a study. I spent about 100 hours on that study, and I feel that work was important. Either way, you have every right to feel your dd gives you a better clue of when to or not to hold into earnings. However as I stated, my dd before a report has not helped me at all through the years, but again, this is only from recollection. I don't feel it presumptuous at all to feel a study would be needed to substantiate your claim that dd increases the odds of a correct decision when holding into earnings. I do agree with you whole heartedly though that solid dd in general give you better odds of beating the market. I mean I firmly believe my success in the market for the last 20 years has had a huge amount to do with strong fundamental analysis, and even to some degree technical analysis.
By the way Re, Wadegarret portfolio has done very well overall, despite the big hit last year on the short side, plus GERN losses. I mean, still up around 185% since Jan 2022 ! It is a little time consuming to keep accurate record of all my trades and persistent updates, but only a few hours per week. SS is amazing, as he double checks all my math, and has corrected me many times already. Funny thing is, most of my mistakes go against me according to him !
R59- DD is fine, but my opinion is,
it doesn't matter. That is, in my experience, no matter how much dd I've done before holding into a report, I'm the worst of it for holding into earnings. I realize you say "most of us" do better than 50/50, but you'd have to prove that to me with at least several hundred reports over a multi year period . My study was approx 1000 quarterly reports from about 125 companies for 8 quarters during a two year bull market rally, and showed an almost exact 50/50 probability of gaining or losing on the session after earnings were announced.
Updated portfolio
HALO 2000
GERN 40000
SOXS 29274.33
Cash $40182
Updated portfolio
HALO 2000
GERN 40000
SOXS 29274.33
Cash $40182
Sell HALO @ $39.80
Sell 1000 HALO @ $39.80 = $39800
Updated portfolio
SOXS 29274.33
HALO 3000 shares
GERN 40000 shares
Cash $382
Sell PRIM @ $37.65/Buy SOXS @ $3.99
Sell 3102.38 PRIM @ $37.65 = $116,805
Buy 29274.33 SOXS @ $3.99 = $116,805
Corrected portfolio
GERN 40000 shares(not 50000 shares)
PRIM 3102.78
HALO 3000 shares
Cash $382
PRIM- another holding into earnings disaster
Unreal though to me that the stock goes down almost 9% after a solid report of 29% revenue increase yoy, and guiding for 10.5% EPS increase for 2024, with an 11 PE going forward ! Either way, it just goes to show the gamble of holding into earnings, as my study of around 1000 reports over 2 years in 2014, showed a 50/50 chance of a gain on the session after earnings, and that's in a bull market ! So my whole point of all that was, if a successful trader intra qtr, why take the chance of holding into earnings ever ?
Hweb- STRL vs PRIM
Could you give me your opinion, as to why STRL is up 21% today, on eps guidance of 12.5% avg for 2024, while PRIM is down 8
% on eps guidance of 10.5% ? Mind you, PRIM has an 11-12 PE going forward, and pays a dividend, while STRL has a PE of 22 going forward, and pays no dividend
PRIM gets hit 7%, while STRL up 20% ?
This is insane IMO, and I bought back the PRIM I sold @ $41.50 for $38.25 avg this morning. STRL does the same thing as PRIM, but sell for twice the PE going forward ! Now you would think the growth going forward for STRL was much higher. However STRL gave guidance of 12% growth, while PRIM 10% growth, yet PRIM sells for an 11-12 PE going forward, while STRL a 22 PE going forward ! Also PRIM pays a small dividend,while STRL has no dividend
Updated portfolio
PRIM 3102.38 shares
GERN 50000 shares
HALO 3000 shares
Cash $346
Updated portfolio
PRIM 3102.38 shares
GERN 50000 shares
HALO 3000 shares
Cash $346
Sell SOXS @ $3.92/Buy PRIM @ $37.78
Sell 29900 SOXS @ $3.92 = $117,208
Buy 3102.38 PRIM @ $37.78 = $117,208
I believe we're at the cusp of a correction
I've got to be right eventually !
SOXS($4) is a go now- KIK has it as a pick 4 !
Hweb- PRIM
Yeah, despite the solid performance, higher margins talked of going forward, and record backlog, I do agree only 10% eps growth expected isn't what I expected. I sold AH at $41.50. Can't complain, as I made 25% since buying a month ago.
Updated portfolio
HALO 3000 shares
SOXS 29900 shares
GERN 40000 shares
Cash $382
Buy SOXS @ $4.01
Buy 29,900 SOXS @ $4.01 = $119,899
Sell PRIM @ $41.50
Sell 2890 PRIM @ $41.50 = $119.935
PRIM($42.75)- solid Q4, and guidance of higher margins/record backlog
Here;s what I liked the most...
"Looking ahead into 2024, we are optimistic about our continued success across many of our end markets. We are focused on improving our margins in the Utilities segment through increasing our mix of project work in power delivery and executing at a higher level of productivity on contracts that have been updated to current market rates beginning in 2024. We are also well-positioned to grow revenue and remain a leader in utility-scale solar construction by leveraging our strong customer relationships and continuing our track record of successful execution. I am confident that our commitment to margin improvement, cash flow generation and allocating capital to our businesses that offer higher returns will benefit Primoris, our employees and our shareholders in 2024 and beyond."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/primoris-services-corporation-reports-fourth-211000088.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9maW5hbmNlLnlhaG9vLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAISyH95DEuiYpbSHgcXnoNjrjMNIUEAaDaOyPJxTGwHgkhj4Q98XryerMkg021TDxngBAqPceTSVR6d6deuQMn_Pa2kVXTC_Mii3j8iX-_M_3EPbcolEEBJpo_lEHook-wnp3hjksV2MQR_FjVbWcZivChDXfGe7sFlokVXm5-ar
This is very much like Feb 26, 2000 IMO
I believe the Nasdaq tops out for the year over the next week or so !
semi stocks have not corrected more than 6% in 4 months !
In the meantime, the index is up around 50% in that time period.
HALO- anyone know why down 4% today ?
eom
Correction & updated portfolio
GERN should show 40000 shares, not 50,000
HALO 3000 shares
PRIM 2890 shares
Cash $346
Updated portfolio
HALO 3000 shares
PRIM 2890 shares
GERN 50000 shares
Cash $346
Buy PRIM @ $40.20
Buy 924.83 PRIM @ $40.20 = $37178
Sell SOXS @ $3.95/Buy PRIM @ $40.20
Sell 20000 SOXS @ $3.95 = 79000
Buy 1965.17 PRIM @ $40.20 = $79000
Sell SOXS @ $3.95
Updated portfolio
HALO 3000 shares
SOXS 20000 shares
GERN 50000 shares
Cash $37524
Sell HALO $39.67
Sell 932.56 shares HALO @ $39.67 = $36995