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Right I'm not trying to nitpick words. I just wasn't sure if those projected numbers are earnings or revenues. Which makes a big difference in the valuation of the company. Either way this is a buy is what I am trying to get across. If their revenues are 20M and their earnings are modest we should be in the five cent range now and the 17 cent range end of year. If those are earnings and not revenues though some of the lofty PPS numbers people have thrown around are actually attainable. For a growth company like this if it gets noticed then we can be at 25 cents before end of year and still have a ratio half of what the 3d companies trade at with four times the growth.
Even using Honda's PE ratio of 13 puts you at .0585.
Ah I see, so you are thinking it is saying 68M in revs and 16 to 20M in earnings. That logic hangs generally. In that case you would need to pick a PE ratio that you think is sensible and apply it. Looking to the 3d companies again is tough since not all are profitable. DDD and AMAVF are profitable and have average PE ratios of about 130. Assuming earnings at the midpoint of 18M and a ratio of 130 yields a PPS of 0.585. Fingers crossed that those really are the earnings numbers!
I disagree with the use of the word earnings there. Based on all the other pr's it seems like they meant to say revenues not earnings. I could be wrong (I hope I'm wrong) but I don't think those are actual earnings numbers.
PPS thoughts.
There seem to be a lot of people who don't understand the difference between and how to calculate price to earnings and price to sales ratios. It is important to understand that we cannot base anything on price to earnings right now because we do not have any information on earnings. Earnings aka profits would require us to know APT's detailed financials. However, we do have some pr releases on sales aka revenues seen below.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/5/prweb10701283.htm
Revenues of 20M in 2013 and 68M in 2014 were predicted last May. If we assume these play out as expected we can generate some PPS estimates using a price to sales ratio. I am going to simplify and be conservative so please don't get grumpy at me about outstanding shares numbers.
Assuming 4B in outstanding shares, 2014 revenues of 68M would result in a price per share of .017. You then apply a price to sales ratio that is appropriate to determine the anticipated PPS this is more art than science. I have selected a ratio of 10.
I selected this ratio as it is the average price to sales ratio of the US listed major 3d printing companies. No APT is not in 3d printing but those companies have price to sales ratios of 10 because they are high growth. The average revenue growth rates of 3d companies is around 35% annually. APT will go from 6M to 10.5M to 20M to 68M over the past four years. That is an average annual growth rate of 135%. Therefore I consider a price to sales ratio of 10 more than conservative. Please also keep in mind that the 3d stocks have recently crashed and their price to sales ratios used to be much higher so this shouldn't be considered a limit for APT (20 and above).
Using the PS ratio of 10 the share price at the end of 2014 would be .17 an increase of 850% from here. Sound good to anyone? Applying the same logic to 2013 revs of 20M the PPS should be .05. Keep in mind that price to sales is calculated using the trailing 12 months which in this case should include Q1 in 2014 which would be more like trailing 12 month revs of 32M (68/4 = 17 per Q, replacing 1Q of 5M from 2013). Those revs would warrant a current PPS of .08.
Maybe FINRA can give us some info...
Try the number below, maybe they can give us an estimate on the average time it takes. They would not give me a status update for FROZ but maybe more general information would be fine to ask.
How do companies change their trading symbol or name?
The company should contact FINRA's Operations Department at +1 866-776-0800 in order to change its trading symbol or name.
Tried calling FINRA to get an update on the symbol change
Not on the notifications list so they couldn't disclose anything. Never hurts to ask.
Shares Owned by APT *NEW* Question
So in one of the filings I remember it being mentioned that APT now owns 95% of the outstanding stock. I haven't been able to find that again but if I am not misremembering I was thinking... Since there were about 1B outstanding before APT was issued the 2.7B, 2.7 only accounts for 73% of 3.7. For them to say that they have 95% they would need to own about 3.5B of the 3.7B. The math isn't perfect but you guys get the idea. Can anyone find the filing that mentioned that they now own 95% or am I going crazy?
If anyone can find the statement that says APT now owns approximately 95% of all shares, can anyone think of any other way for that to be true besides APT buying up shares on the market?
Thanks, appreciate your thoughts.
I hadn't seen this before!
http://edckc.com/portfolio/american-performance-technologies/
That means they are projecting 850% growth in the number of employees over the next five years. Here is the explanation of the Missouri Quality Jobs program too.
https://www.ded.mo.gov/BCS%20Programs/BCSProgramDetails.aspx?BCSProgramID=76
It traded this same way for a couple days at .01 before the run up to .03. Almost identical in fact.
Good luck everyone!
I have been checking this board religiously the past few weeks. Thanks so much to all those who provided the great DD. At this point I am completely sold on the company and its future. I'll read the financials when they come out but I'm convinced this is a very long term hold. No need for me to be checking the board all the time anymore. Best of luck to all of you. My 4.8M shares are locked up for at least a year Russian! Try to ignore the panic that ensues every time the stock doesn't gain 50% in a day. Stay long and strong and enjoy all the benefits that our early ownership will bring us!
I am convinced there will be news after hours.
Picked up another 375k
Hitting it hard here before close
435k more at .024
I will happily average up here.
DANTANNA
So if I understand all that correctly you are saying that the MM's are not driving the market action whatsoever? I guess I don't understand. Don't they have to keep shares on hand for themselves to execute orders? Wouldn't that require them to buy and sell independent of orders as they go?
Good to see you again CD
Agreed, there are many pr's to come which are going to generate a huge amount of interest. This is very early in the process still.
Thanks Rusty
I have read through everything but I missed that somehow, thanks for pointing it out.
Thanks VLF!
I'll see if I can dig anything up on those guys. Seems like it's probably early stage if they are moving operation locations and needed 100k for 5% of their sales. 10 years could change a lot though.
Royalty Agreement for FROZ
Does anyone know whether this royalty agreement is still in place and whether it's actually worth any money?!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/investment-royalty-agreement-signed-global-122800975.html
Excited for Monday, go FROZ!
Absolutely that's how they were allocated but why would he have as much interest in the company as Covey and Dyess combined? I just think it's a strong positive indicator that the guy running the books, the guy who probably knows the most about the stock market, has snatched up twice as many shares as the owner.
William Maher 145M Shares
I was just thinking about why William Maher grabbed so many shares for himself. He has double what Troy Covey has. Could it have anything to do with the fact that he is the most financially savvy person in that office? I think he knows where this stock is heading and he has opted to take shares over pay. Why else would he have as many shares of the company as Troy Covey (the president) and William Dyess (research director) combined?
Just my opinion anyone else have an explanation for how he ended up with double everyone else?
Two weeks is too long to wait for 100%? That's ridiculous.
I'm watching every tick for a chance to get more cheaply.
Some forum reviews of SmartCarb that may not have been posted yet.
APT shows up to discuss the smartcarb in the thumpertalk forum.
http://www.gasgasrider.org/forum/showthread.php?t=13471
http://www.thumpertalk.com/topic/987680-apt-smartcarb/?hl=smartcarb
http://www.dirtbikeworld.net/forum/showthread.php?t=96980
I need as much APT as I can get. Forget the current price action and just think about the story. APT sells 100k plus units in the first three years of production. This is done on the back of innovative and well designed products and a unique supply chain model. Now they need to go public to raise capital to keep up with the insane demand they are seeing. They are only taking preorders for the smart carb at this point. They had to move to a much larger space. They are snatching up contracts with OEMs and big name distributors. Customer reviews are positive. Employee reviews of the company are positive. The CEO has a cult of personality forming around him.
I also want to throw in two of my own opinions/insights here. The company sold 100,000 units during an economic down turn while building name brand recognition. As international economies rebound there will be more disposable income for people to spend on the motovox products directly and on the products that they ship components to suppliers for. As the brand becomes more recognizable the number of buyers will grow.
Increased regulations on small engine emissions are on the way from the EPA. Lawnmowers, chainsaws, weedeaters etc. are going to face tighter regulations and the smart carb will pose a simple solution for OEMs to meet the new standards.
All this equals success in the future for APT. Oh and by the way, they are undervalued now regardless of where they are headed in the next year or two.
APT answered when I called. Spoke to William Maher on my first try. Not sure what you're basing them not answering on. They need funding to expand, they are at the point of booking preorders they are so busy. This is a company that is attractive now and has the people and products to continue to grow quickly. Long term hold. It's not rocket science!
Dianne
Do you have anything positive to say or is this just the worst corporation and group of people you have ever seen?
Of course they are keeping Schissler as a consultant.
This is the guy that knows the ins and outs of the company they just purchased. They need to keep him around should any questions or issues come up with outside entities making claims against them. He isn't going to stick around and help them without some sort of compensation. I'm sure in the terms of the agreement they allowed him to keep the preferred shares he did in exchange for sticking around as a "consultant" to answer those questions that naturally arise when buying a company from someone.
Don't forget that they rushed the merger. There are still some loose ends to tie up with FROZ and Schissler is the one who knows what went down.
IMO!
Any word from CIMT on the interview questions Gary? Looking forward to hearing what they have to say about their plans.
Why is everyone complaining?
This is more cheap shares for us. Get your check books out.
I have contributed to Seeking Alpha in the past. However, the last article I submitted was rejected because it was on a penny stock. I know that Seeking Alpha does publish articles on penny stocks but they are a bit finnicky about which ones they accept. The company I covered has a $40M market cap and was trading at 64 cents when I wrote it. I would love to see a Seeking Alpha article and would even be happy to write it but I think its wise to contact Seeking Alpha first before putting in the work.
Article on the Generator Market Potential
Gives some useful numbers on what generator market penetration could lead to.
Sales of home generators are increasing 17% per year.
Most residential generators average $5,000 to $8,000 per unit.
If the percentage of US homes increases by 1% that's an additional 2B in revenue up for grabs.
APT obviously isn't going to capture much of that when their product launches but even a tiny slice of a $2B pie would be huge for these guys! If climate change is really leading to more storms then the generator market is one area that stands to benefit.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324894104578103334072599870
APT's employees seem happy!
http://www.indeed.com/cmp/American-Performance-Technologies/reviews
Looking to add 2M more tomorrow if I can get out of some of my other holdings at a decent price. FROZ is just too underpriced.
Great stuff VLF!
Thanks for sharing your knowledge and DD.
I disagree and have never understood why people see reverse splits as always being negative.
Take Arcam AB for example. They recently had a reverse split because their shares were trading at about $120. This was keeping some people from investing in them and by performing their reverse split they actually saw an increase in share price which adjusted to about $180 or so. Of course there were other factors involved in their PPS moving but this is a good example of how a reverse split can be useful.
In the case of FROZ there are now approximately 4 Billion shares outstanding. Having this many shares makes it difficult to reach shares prices over a dollar which would allow for an uplisting. This is the most compelling reason for an R/S. The benefits of uplisting should be known to most and it should also be clear that share buyback is not likely as the company would not be listing publicly just to buy back a bunch of shares. If they wanted to do that they could have just remained private and saved money.
A large number of outstanding shares also keeps some folks from investing at all because they prefer companies that have smaller floats or avoid ones with a large number of authorized shares. A reverse split and reduction in authorized shares would eliminate some of the common reasons that people avoid investing in other OTC stocks.