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Well, I, for one, have a few questions....
Was he told to stir the pot and be a stimulus for the stock? (just to get things moving and free-up some shares - it was only 20k of 500k that he held)
Why would anyone let go of shares before a run-up to drilling announcements? (if drilling was on the near horizon) 20k shares, run up to at least .50-.70 before spudding = money left on table. (which further confirms the lack of a schedule to drill)
oh, and, what if by chance there's an announcement that Terra cannot fulfill its obligation?
AND.....if he needed $12K, couldn't some other director lend him the money until the stock runs up so as not to cast any doubt on HENC? I'll gladly lend him the money to protect my position. That deserves a big WTF??
Appreciate your extending an olive branch. Frustration creeps in after what seems like an inordinate amount of time without news.
Thanks
Wow! hey Smooth, you sound angry and basically a know-it-all.
How dare ANYONE speak up against our esteemed management!
Get a grip.
This is almost hilarious.
Yaya, you're the best!
Of course there will be news, but you've been predicting that we'd have news 9 months ago.
Smooth, and everyone else...
I'm not standing up for any one person, but I think we've all earned the right to bit#h and moan about lack of transparency, lack of info, and lack of common courtesy to shareholders.
we know they'll give us the info when they're good and ready, but to keep us completely in the dark for so long goes beyond the pale of what's reasonable.
when they announce that they are about to spud, I'll be as happy as anyone else; it's just the almost interminable wait for any kind of info that's got many of us bugged.
Buc - how do you know there's lots of oil there?
I'm very long this stock, but can't help but wonder why other drillers and speculators were not clawing at each others' backs to try to get in on the action. I'm not privvy to the 2D and 3D, but I'm sure that if any knowledgeable oil engineer/geologist read the maps he would have a solid opinion as to their worth. So, what I'm saying is...maybe there's not much down there that's worth going after. Maybe the pools are too shallow and too few. There could very well be something there, but the big boys who read the maps may feel it's not really a viable venture. Maybe that's why we have a middling company like Terra Nova leading us by the nose.
Also, if Holloman mgmt felt EXTREMELY confident that there were large pools down there, don't you think they would have self-funded?
This is more risky now than when I first got in it.
yes, all that is fair to say about them, but what about how you cobble together the value of the company?
I would think that once they issue shares to raise money, or sell part of their per-cent rights in the PEL's to a 3rd party, the company's overall value has to diminish. At which point, one might be able to better assess their value, i.e., PPS. The question is, how will the market value them after they get their finances in order? Is the current PPS reflective of the anticipated reduction in PEL ownership or issuance of new shares?
Lots to think about.....
can someone please explain this re Terra nova:
if I understand this correctly, they either need to issue new shares to fund the drilling, or need a new partner and will therefore give up a percentage ownership in the PEL's. Dilutes ownership in both instances, of course.
question is: why would anyone buy shares of Terra Nova at this point prior to their financial house being in order?
here's my 2 cents:
when they're ready to spud, the stock will trade...it will move up steadily to the .60's, then wait there to hear about oil shows and then move into the 1.00's with any kind of oil strike.
Terra will move at a higher clip and greatly surpass HENC on a percentage basis if there is any kind of oil. After all, the bigger risk is with Terra - - they're sort of in an all-or-none situation.
Dry hole will crush Terra; HENC will fall back into the .10's
GLTA
I guess my basic question is: did we have to wait for Terra Nova to have the interest in PEL 444 officially transferred to them before spudding?
maybe this is why we've been waiting?
from 10Q:
On May 7, 2014, the Government of South Australia registered the transfer of the 25.8333% working interest earned by Terra Nova in PEL 444.
Is it possible that we had to wait for the legal stuff to be in place before anything could move forward?
Someone here know if this is a correct assumption?
thanks. your scenario makes great sense and fills-in an information void for most of us.
Thanks, it's good to hear from you.
My most pressing question is: why the delay in selection, spudding etc....? They are way off their publicly announced schedule. Any insights?
absolutely! thanks Molokai and mets.
unless he turned completely private in his responses....
which would be a great loss to everyone.
His last post was 12/6/13 on HENC board #3614
I don't see anything later than that.
But more deeply unsettling is the fact that someone who had so much intimate knowledge and enthusiasm for HENC has stopped posting cold turkey. Has given me pause and making me paranoid as to the whole drilling drama......
For someone who had written so many posts in the past, I am very perplexed that tchauncy has not written one since Dec 6, 2013. Not on any board.
I don't know what it means, exactly. But I would like to express my concern, and that hopefully he is well.
None taken. Just want to see a bit more urgency and action. Are we almost into the dreaded flooding season? If it's not a financial issue, it's Mother Nature conspiring against us. Need a break to go our way.
What if HENC issues new shares to complete the funding in return for whatever percentage of equity that Terra Nova agrees to give up? If that happens, would the dilutive effect on PPS trump the increase in ownership percentage?
I wish TChauncy would chime in...really appreciated his insight in the past.
Just out of curiosity, which lead on PEL 112 was drilled last year? I just wanted to locate it on the map on the pdf link that you provided. Thanks
It would be great, but drilling 8 locations means they need a lot more $$$ than what they have.
8 locations? what do you mean by that?
Hi buc- I don't post much on Ihub and am not a subscriber; therefore I cannot do private replies.
yes, there is potential from what I've seen. I'm just anxious that they start drilling. Maybe Senex will drill nearby before we do and their results will inject some confidence into our outlook, if not stock price.
it is interesting, and certainly one can imagine that the pools continue onto our property...so, you never know.
the other argument is why not invest in Senex? very profitable, great plan, plenty of cash on hand. a lot of shares o/s, but other than that, them seem to know what they're doing.
looks like a couple of small holders bailed based on today's wishy-washy PR. It's to be expected and really does not surprise me.
I'm sure we'll have a run up into the main event, so I'm not concerned about price action prior to spudding.
Well, I don't know if I'm right to worry that this possibly indicates great indecision and lack of clarity as to a specific and obvious target. Being cautious is one thing, but if something just smacks you in the face as a no brainer, then I would have assumed immediate action. I appreciate the news, but the message does not allay my concerns.
Call me a worry wart.
yes, take out those numbers and you are able to smoothe-out the figure resulting in a higher Days to Cover number, and arguably more accurate.
Alphi - a quick calc on short int indicates that days-to-cover is approx. 5.3 based on:
2/1 thru 2/11 total volume divided by 7 trading days = 3.4 mill shares traded per day; then assume 18 mill short (pure assumption based on 1/31 data) and you get 5.3 days to cover.
The major unknown is the 18 mill short figure. You can interpolate and possibly come up with a more refined number, but this should do as a fair estimate.
Note: the 45 mill shares traded on 1/29 obviously skewed the results of 1/31 short int.
the 3-d was done quite a while ago, which leads me to believe that there is a serious underlying issue. I don't have access to anyone in the inner circle, so I can only speculate that something is not right among the two parties.
incredibly irresponsible behavior by mgmt. and Terra Nova for not throwing out an update.
Also, TCChauncy has not been heard from in quite a while; he certainly has an ear to the ground and any insights from him would be most welcomed.
Try your brokerage site or yahoo
It finished with a nice round 250k traded for the day
Still trying to make sense why someone would let go of that many at that price......
What's up with the 150k+ volume at terra nova?
yes, news drives this thing; but look at the last 2 crosses on the 3 year chart on our home page (bottom chart). we can probably expect a 2X to 2.5X push from the base price of the 50day. .70 -.75 is a fair target. That's just the run up into drilling results. Then, positive reported results will hopefully push it beyond the $1.00 mark.
For all you chart guys...keep an eye on the 50/200 day; looks like it's setting up for a nice cross.
although, Terra Nova talks about the SE corner...so it's anyone's guess (unless you have the 3D's in front of you)
yes, a basic assumption would be that the Northeast corner of 444 could be the prime spot to drill.
I saw this article from a year ago and found it odd that the map shows 444 and 112, but they talk about Chevron acquiring an interest in Beach's properties.
http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Chevron_to_buy_Cooper_Basin_shale_gas_assets/fd7fc57e33b4.aspx#gsc.tab=0
Yes. Ambassador does indicate that there is "oil potential from a sparsely explored northern area".... I take that to mean the PEL 444 border area.
I put it up as food for thought. You can draw your own conclusions based on a skinny piece of land farmed out for $42 mill that borders above PEL 444. Certainly appears to be a vote of confidence.
I don't post here, but a little homework goes a long way....
Has anyone read the news about PEL 570 in Dec 2013?
Look in Rigzone or just google it. PEL 570 DIRECTLY borders us above PEL 444.
Ambassador Oil and Gas Ltd has farmed-out a 52.5% working interest in its highly prospective PEL 570 exploration permit in the Cooper Basin (South Australia) to New Standard Energy Ltd for $42.5 million in direct exploration expenditure.
The deal, representing an implied value of 27 cents per Ambassador share (not including cash reserves and USA acreage), also brings one of the US shale industry pioneers, Magnum Hunter Resources Corp, to help guide exploration for the high liquids content/low CO2 gas targets known to exist in Cooper Basin permit PEL 570. New Standard is an experienced onshore oil and gas explorer in Western Australia.
It's interesting that Ambassador got 42Mill farm-out for such a sliver of land. Very meaningful to us.
GLTA.