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FWIW, the overall market is improving now.
Me...
Good point, looks like the SoXX is influencing the price.
No need. I agree with your view 100%. I'm just discussing the viability of the "market manipulation" theories that Bob and "chipdesigner" were tossing around.
Me....
Get real, who said anything about manipulation? This is just how the market is played. If you don't realize that you shouldn't be in it.
Could someone possibly explain to me why this wouldn't simply represent a large buyer who doesn't want to cost himself more money by driving up the stock price on a low volume day...("Buy Low") And a large seller who is possibly taking some profits, but, doesn't want to drive the stock down on a low volume day...("Sell High")....
Me...
Could be, but it didn't look that way to me. As far as I could tell the seller wasn't interested in getting the highest price, but was more concerned with keeping the price under $20. The buyer was/is more than happy to accommodate as he would push the seller to a little above $20 to get him to sell and then fall back for the next push at a lower price. Most of the time the seller was trying to control the price through small sales. As long as the seller continued to sell, even small amounts, the buyer played along. Eventually the buyer had to push the seller more to get the shares he wanted.
As of now the price is slightly over $20 and neither party is pushing. The buyer is playing the seller like a fish giving him more line before reeling him in some more. If the buyer is near his goal he may push towards the end of the day to finish his buying. If not he'll just continue buying tomorrow. The seller has some decisions to make. It looks like he may have tired of the game and stopped selling.
Breakout?
Well it looks like the buyer won out and the seller is now just trying to minimize the damage. The buyer looks relentless, picking up as many shares as he can at the lowest price. This buyer really knows his stuff. He keeps baiting the seller by pulling back after a push, trying to get him to sell at the lowest price.
I don't expect a sharp rise from here today, the buyer is too smart for that. Unless someone else hops in the buyer will probably be happy to continue the game tomorrow.
can understand doubling up on short positions during periods of local maxima, but increasing a short position just to manipulate the stock price? I don't think the MMs are THAT dumb.
Me...
I don't think this is the Market Makers work, probably some hedge fund is selling and a fund is buying? Who knows? I gave up trying to figure out just what games these guys are playing a long time ago. I'm working at a whole different level of the market from those guys. Still, at times being able to recognize what's going on can occasionally put a few bucks extra into your pocket.
know it seems like it just gets more complicated, but it just got somewhat easier about now. They were juggling 90 nm K8's, 130 nm K8's and 130 nm bulk K7's. Now everything is 90nm K8's. I don't know how many dies there are, but it could be as few as 2 (one for dual core and one for single core), or it could be 7 (512K and 1M dual core, 256K, 512K and 1M single core and maybe a couple of Mobile dies (with lower power transistors)).
Me...
Good points. One of the nice things about having a one size fits all product is that you can make changes a lot further down the manufacturing line to get the products you need. I would like to know just how differentiated all the various flavors of k8 really are. Your list is probably pretty close.
I've had some experience with a large manufacturing process and while it didn't have anything to do with silicon I'm sure the problems are similar. These revolve around unexpected problems, deferred maintenance issues and a whole slew of little things you don't expect. Not to mention changing demands from sales. As you get closer to max capacity any buffer you had disappears and small problems quickly develop into big problems. This is where the plant manager can shine. How he handles the inevitable problems can make a big difference. That extra last 5%/10% of manufacturing capacity can make a huge difference in revenue. The more fixed the manufacturing costs, the more the difference.
think a bunch of the inventory is probably K7 stuff, because they're no longer producing it, but for a custom order. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing, as pricing on K7s should stabilize due to increasing scarcity.
Me....
Sounds about right, wasn't AMD's inventory carryover in q1 a little larger than expected?
"and is taking advantage of the seller’s seemingly desperate need to keep the stock below $20."
Me...
Sorry, I must be dense, but I still don't understand. This is a big boy’s game that's being played and doesn't really concern me. If you're talking about the variation in the price, it's not enough to entice me, too much risk. I need at least $.50 to even consider playing in that game. I have gotten into situations before like this that were profitable because to the big boys I was nothing but noise. But the prices here are in too narrow a range. Once we get a break, either up or down, and If I'm watching I might buy/sell a few shares. This would primarily be a means of offsetting the tedium. Basically I see AMD trading in a $19 to $22 range until we get closer to earnings. If we get close to either one of those extremes I might do something.
Given that after H105 we're at about 17-18M (8.5-9M/Q), shipping 12M in Q3 and Q4 would only put the 2005 total at 41-42M.
Me...
That's where I'm coming from with the shortage angle I keep stating. I figure AMD will have about 5 to 6m more chips to sell in H205 than H1 plus the carryover of inventory. Given that the carryover is probably mostly pre "E" stepping I figure it's probably low-end stuff. On paper that sounds like enough to tide AMD over, but product allocation will become a lot more improtant.
I'm factoring in a much stronger demand for AMD's products than seasonality into my estimates for q3/4. These estimates are largely based on all the new products that are coming out or came out recently and the continuing OEM design wins, particularly Turions. Then there's the increases in distributor wins and SUN which should continue to increase sales of AMD processors but might have a bigger demand than expected by the end of the year. The biggest question mark is Truion which really might surprise. Centrino supply/pricing will have a big effect. Dual cores could also give a nice bounce to earnings as AMD's offerings seem much better situated for that market than INTC's. Lots of possible factors and they're all positive.
In any case q3 should be very good and q4 excellent as far as earnings go. It will be interesting to see just what effect of getting close to max capacity has on the financials. I sure hope MirrorBit continues to gain acceptance as flash remains the fly in the ointment.
The one thing certain in all this is that the Dresden plant manager is really going to be earning his pay.
Hey Bob - buy *low*, sell *high*. Got it now?
Me...
I don't know what that has to do with my post. I just thought the game being played was rather interesting. If these guys have the kinds of reserves I think they have then the price isn't going to move much today. In fact the situation may take a couple of days to be resolved?
Interesting cat and mouse game going on.
To me it looks like 2 big boys are slugging it out. One of them is desperate to keep AMD below $20, while the other is more opportunistic. The buyer keeps tweaking the price into the $20 range provoking the seller into a spasmodic reply to which the buyer responds by temporarily stopping the buying and thus letting the price drop back below $20. It's hard to say who has the most money/shares, but the buyer clearly wants AMD shares below $20 and is taking advantage of the seller’s seemingly desperate need to keep the stock below $20. We'll have to see who runs out of money/shares first.
Klaus, I don´t see these volume constraints at all at the current sales volume (also keeping seasonality in mind). I trust AMD´s estimates there.
Me...
The coming price adjustments should give us some indication about supply. At first any shortages should start showing up in specific products (hardest to make) and later move to the general line. Logically AMD will schedule manufacturing so that the most profitable products are guaranteed and the others are produced as resources free up.
Personally, I would love it if the recent process changes plus the H1 inventory carryover are enough to tide AMD over until fab36 comes online, but given the near steady stream of design/distributor wins I have my doubts. It seems A lot will hinge on Turion's success.
In any case if scarcity-manufacturing problems don't dominate AMD's production it will probably be because AMD couldn't guarantee the OEM's/distributors needs forcing them into mother INTC's waiting claws. Of course the determination of the veracity of that opinion will have to wait until AMD has enough capacity to test just what the unencumbered demand for AMD's processors really is.
Or some big buyers showed up... kinda looks like one or the other, doesn't it?
Me...
Sure does, we've been seeing this pattern a lot lately. Hardly suprising with a stock as volatile as AMD. I suspect someone big wanted AMD and just waited until the sellers were done.
It sure would be nice to get in on one of these things. I would really appreciate it if anyone out there planning a big sale of AMD would let me know before they do so. Heck, I wouldn't even mind buying lunch.
Someone ran out of shares to dump? EOM
You mean the same 90 nm bulk CMOS process that it produces
the 2.26 GHz, 1.36 V, 27W Dothan in? Explain to me why IBM
and AMD go through all the pain and expense of PD SOI when
it apparently provides nothing tangible but slow ramps and, in
IBM's case at least, acknowledged yield problems?
Me...
I keep hearing that SOI costs too much(from the INTC guys), but in the big picture the added cost looks piddly compared to the advantages that seem to be coming from the move. I know INTC has tested it and determined that it adds nothing to bulk CMOS, but clearly something has changed since AMD went with the process. Compared to the increases in top end chips and added ASPs were seeing from AMD the minor added costs of SOI and DSL seem well worth the price. All I can do is look at things from a relatively high point of view, and from where I'm sitting something is working, and it looks like it's SOI.
That is an interesting table. Looks like 25 mil shorts were covered from Oct to Dec 2004 when we had about twice current volume. The stock went up from like $14 to almost $25. With 37 mil more to cover, and half the trading volume of back then, I suspect you did not miss the really big short squeeze. Keep waiting.
Me...
The last few days have been real strange. Looked like one or maybe a couple of the big boys decided to dump. I hope yesterday was the end of it.
There does appear to be a group out there that went to the Elmer school on AMD and believes that AMD will always return to form. I've got a feeling the shorts, and Elmer, are in for a surprise this time. Shorting is expensive so another good AMD quarter could promote some attitude adjustments.
Can anyone on these threads remember even one instance when an Intel stooge admitted (while it was happening) that Intel had huge production problems moving to .18um, that Rambus was a billion dollar blunder, that MTH was a bad idea to fix a bad idea, that 1.13GHz was a fiasco that should never have happened,
that Intel was pretty much the laughing stock of the industry? Anyone? Anyone at all??
Me...
Kind of a strange conversation, almost as if we were arguing who was worst INTC/AMD. My point was that though AMD was making progress on the design front with the Athlon overall it was still getting creamed by INTC. It wan't until the AMD/IBM R&D deal that AMD finally started to get its manufacturing process act together.
That was another very strange thing. I had more or less giving up that AMD would ever get its' manufacturing anywhere near INTC's standards. Frankly, at first I wasn't too enthused about AMD combining with IBM to co-develop the 65nm and lower processes. IBM had been having a lot of problems with its' 90nm fab and I was worried that AMD wouldn't get much for the money it gave to IBM. But low and behold the synergies that came out of that union have been truly astounding. The only thing I can think of to rationalize the apparent gift from god was that both had been working on similar problems in their own ways and that they each had answers to the others problems. Or something like that.
Whatever, clearly something worked as AMD's manufacturing processes seemed to turn on the nitro in the last year. Particularly with the "E" stepping. Strange that the agreement was for 65nm and below yet AMD was able to use the information to make their 90nm process the best in the industry. INTC still seems to be having 90nm problems while AMD is coasting. Which makes me wonder just how well INTC is doing with 65nm?
Now you are pretending that Intel had "all the advantages" five years ago? I think it's your analogy that "begs credulity."
Me...
Well it may have looked that way, but AMD was soon to revert to its normal inability to manufacture what it designed. So even though INTC had the problems you listed they paled in comparison to what AMD was about to experience. The problems INTC had were just shoved under the rug as the P4 started coming into its' own. INTC then had the best design, the best manufacturing processes, tons of capacity, the best Mafia marketing, and more money than Midas.
Since then INTC has given up the design lead, as well as the manufacturing processing lead. The capacity issue is about to disappear and the suit has added the icing to the INTC marketing cake that was already crumbling. INTC's advantages are rapidly being reduced to just money.
So, you tell me who has achieved what in the last 5 years. The things you listed were just the start of an INTC decline that is still gaining momentum. At that time AMD was laying the groundwork for what would turn out to be design domination in everything but laptops.
Now you are pretending that Intel had "all the advantages" five years ago? I think it's your analogy that "begs credulity."
Me...
Well it may have looked that way, but AMD was soon to revert to its normal inability to manufacture what it designed. So even though INTC had the problems you listed they paled in comparison to what AMD was about to experience. The problems INTC had were just shoved under the rug as the P4 started coming into its' own. INTC then had the best design, the best manufacturing processes, tons of capacity, the best Mafia marketing, and more money than Midas.
Since then INTC has given up the design lead, as well as the manufacturing processing lead. The capacity issue is about to disappear and the suit has added the icing to the INTC marketing cake that was already crumbling. INTC's advantages are rapidly being reduced to just money.
So, you tell me who has achieved what in the last 5 years. The things you listed were just the start of an INTC decline that is still gaining momentum. At that time AMD was laying the groundwork for what would turn out to be design domination in everything but laptops.
Of all the possibilities I think another Ruiz U-turn is the most probable. He will redfine what he means by Spansion being "independent" and "having access to capital markets" and will hope that growth in the CPU business and the start of production from the new fab will deflect the criticism of his decision (a) to sell Spansion below cost in a private deal or (b) keep it but run it down.
Me...
I don't think Hector ever gave up on flash. The problem has been the short-term effects caused by INTC. I don't think Hector will sell Spansion at a loss so that means no sale until Spansion turns a profit, probably for a couple of quarters. Even if a sale happens I expect AMD to retain control unless mirrorbit and Ornand flop and then it would be a give away.
This quarter should be interesting if mirrored flash continues to improve. ORNAND is the big question mark. For sure INTC isn't the competition as this is another area in which they're fading into the sunset after their Kamikaze attack on AMD. INTC won the battle but is losing the war.
Lots of questions still. I'm hoping Hector knows a lot more than I do and the news is good. Have to listen to what Hector has to say very carefully to get clues as to what he's really thinking.
You ain't seen nothing yet. As Intel converts the mass market to dual core on the strength of its ramping 65 nm capacity AMD will be facing far tougher decisions with no good choices.
Me...
Yada, Yada, Yada. You keep telling me how great INTC is, but all I see is a once great company fading into the sunset. All one has to do is make a list of the accomplishments of AMD vs. INTC over the last 5 years to see exactly what I mean. From my point of view INTC has done very little correctly over the last 5 years, while AMD has done very few things incorrectly over that period.
When you take into consideration all the advantages INTC had over AMD at the start of that period the current comparison begs credulity. I’m constantly amazed that more people aren’t asking how INTC could have screwed the pooch so badly? Maybe next year they will start asking questions as margins start to plummet?
As far as capacity goes, by the end of H1 next year AMD should forever say good-by to the problem, at least to the extent it has affected AMD in the past. And, as far as DCs go, I expect that your expectations will, as per you Itanium expectations prove overblown. Outside of servers they will make little sense until applications start getting rewritten. Game and MC computers may benefit eventually, but that’s going to be a long ramp. A lot of your assumptions are based on INTC doing a whole hell of a lot better with 65nm than they did with 90, something that has yet to be proven. Another flop with 65nm and AMD is going to have a cake-walk, even if fab36 is only 90nm..
Yeah, it's really terrible for us shareholders that consumers are snapping up all the $500+ X2 parts that AMD cares to offer... ;)
Me...
Just think what it's going to be like next year when AMD can sell twice as many. From that point of view, yes, it is terrible that AMD can't sell that many now. But the real problem, if there is a problem, will be ramping demand as fab36 comes online. AMD needs to be able to match supply with demand now to overcome lingering doubts based on prior experiences.
Must be frustrating for the whitebox makers not being able to get CPUs.
Me...
Not to mention us AMD stock holders. I really hope this capacity shortage thing doesn't get worse. With AMD gaining support the last thing I want is the old supply issues to come back and haunt AMD at a time when they need to be increasing demand. We'll have to keep an eye on supply to see if problems start showing up in other areas.
AMD appears to be getting into a situation where allocating resources is going to be an unbelievable headache. I hope INTC is taking notes. I have every confidence that a real pro is going to show INTC how it's done. Compared to AMD, INTC's allocation problems are piddley.
joe, the shortage is limited to chipsets only, afaiu. This can be cured by using third party chipsets, and in fact it is.
Me...
I don't know how long you've been following INTC, but this is far from the first time INTC has announced contrived shortages. The more likely answer is that INTC is afraid of being sued by the chipset guys as it continues on with its' vertical integration plans. Eliminating the chipset guys is probably going to piss someone off, and with the AMD suit on everyones mind, now is probably not a good time. So INTC throws a few bones and stretches the date out when the chipset guys are history.
It's almost inconceivable that INTC could have any capacity problems. The only other thing I can think of to explain it is the usual ineptness of INTC management. After all it's not like Centrino demand just started. INTC has been saying for at least a year that the laptop business was saving its' butt.
Interesting.
Them...
Perlmutter is vice president and general manager of Intel Corporation's Mobility Group. He was jointly responsible for the design, development and marketing of Intel's solutions for the mobile computing segment including Intel's Centrino Mobile Technology, as well as serving as manager of the Intel Israel Development Center in Haifa.
Also...
Israel is considered one of Intel's central development centers and in early 2006, the company is anticipated to launch the latest series of processor, code-named Jonah, apparently with two Dothan cores in its Pentium mobile family, intended for notebooks. Intel is also working on the next generation of mobile processors, code-named Merom.
Me...
I've been wondering for some time just why INTC hasn't shifted more of its' design and manufacturing to Israel since these are the only guys that seem capable of designing anything but 1 hole outhouses. Without the Israelis saving their collective butts in the laptop area INTC would be in much worse shape than it is now.
On the other hand, no doubt this will raise the visability of INTC to the terrorists, but then Israel has a long history of dealing with those guys. And, as time goes on the world we live in will undoubtedly more closely mirror the world Israel has learned to live in.
Yes. Well I have a long history with this stock, even preceding my gradual conversion from INTC to AMD starting in 1998. The one truth is that this stock has a nasty habit of returning to form, as Elmer is so wont to remind anyone that will listen. Further, I have some hairs on the back of my head that often stand up when AMD is looking too good to disappoint. This is a result of being slapped around when I least expect it too many times. So, I've grown more than a little aprenhensive of can't fail times. I knew in my gut that AMD was headed for trouble last December, but I just didn't know from where. Anyway, $25 was ridiculous for the stock at that time and I made a mistake.
The good news is that so far the hairs aren't sticking up, yet. AMD is a very high maintenance stock, and even if you are constantly on top of things you can get blind-sided.
Nice after hours action going on.
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?mode=frameset&kind=&symbol=AMD&symbol=INTC&symbol...
Apparently Intel "fell through its 50-day SMA" for whatever that's worth.
Me...
I'm not a TA guy, but enough are that it can't be good news for INTC.
very low volume.
Wonder how much of the money exiting INTC ended up in AMD today? Looks like the SOXX is going to have a better day than either AMD or INTC. More adjusting/rebalancing because of earnings and CCs still going on?
AMD: Short Interest UP 5.3% to 39.8M in Jul 2005
Me...
Looks like the boys are doubling up. I wonder if we'll see the same thing happen that appeared to have happen on the last run to $25. Namely, the shorts covered driving the price up to irrational levels and then reestablished their positions at near the $25 level. Once the shorts got things started the momentum boys hopped on and the rest, as they say, was history. They saved their butts that time and I missed a golden opportunity as the stock dropped to the $14 range. If they try it again, hopefully I'll listen to my stomach and do at least a partial Mani number.
The trouble is that $25 doesn't look anyway near as irrational as it did last December. We may need a higher high. Probably best to look for that blow-off day before committing. Assuming the shorts even try anything. A slow move upward would be deadly for the shorts as it would gradually lighten their wallets while leaving them still hoping for a way out.
One thing is for sure, as long as AMD keeps going up all those shorts will have to be covered at some point. The only question is how much pain will be involved and what kind of games the shorts will try to play?
Not all the run up to $25 was due to the shorts, but to me it looked like they had a big hand in it. There was more than just a little irrational exuberance involved by J.Q. Public.
High-end Montecito delayed
Interesting. I wonder if the the "gang of 4" will be forming a barbershop quartet to sing that old INTC favorite "Itanium blues"? It sort of puts wbmw's perspective about INTC catching up into a different light. It still looks like INTC has a lot of AMD's dust to eat.
I just read the Fred Weber interview on Electronic News, he certainly speaks to the way I think. Everything he had to say is spot on.
http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA628547.html
Bobs10, your joking right...really good quarter...I knew consensus was -.03 but I thought they might do a tad better than .03...here's apples numbers...
Me...
Yahoo has AMD losing $.05 in q2, but the last time I looked they were saying a loss of $.07 so I guess the loss got lowered lately. Not anything spectacular but when someone is stomping on your hand, if feels good when they stop. That's kind of how I feel about AMD's ongoing losses. Did you listen to the CC? Lots of expressed optimism on both the flash and CPG fronts.
Tomorrow should be a good day with the market extending its' AMD perspective to q3 and q4 in the form of reevaluations. I have little doubt that q3 will be quite good unless...
That's the way I see it. AMD is in the 10th round of a 15 round fight. Still lots of slugging going on. I never thought Hector gave up on flash, just had to face reality and do something.
Let me know when AMD reaches the point of working
on its seventh consecutive winning year* m'ok?
Me...
Do you really want me to keep track and let you know like Keith just did? It must really hurt that AMD had a good quarter? Well, INTC gets its' day in the sunlight next week. Let's see how it does.
I wonder if we´ll see any reaction from the Fab Four:
Me...
LOL.
Funny enough, AMD finally added the dualcore 2xx series to the pricelist:
Me...
Over the last couple of years things have really changed with both AMD and INTC holding their cards very close to their vests. Back in the Jerry days AMD was an open book. Things have changed a lot with neither company wanting to show their cards, and even seeming to resort to disinformation as part of the effort to keep each other in the dark.
For anyone that remembers the days of $35 desktop processors those prices are mana.
Tone of the CC
VEry business like, exuding confidence of the steely resolve kind. Less willingness, particularly on Hector's part, to put up with AMD doubters. More like "just watch us over the next year" sort of unstated confidence. The boys are on a mission, kind of like Lance going up the Alps.
AMD changed its model
Me...
Yeah, inverted the pyramid. Definitely one of Hector's better ideas. Still, I hate to have AMD give up any market share because of capacity issues. AMD fought too hard and long in the low-end to relish giving up that market even if the low-end products are being replaced with products with better ASPs.
All in all, it's still a lot better problem than not having the capacity because the production processes aren't any good. At least this time AMD's production processes are the best in the industry and AMD just needs more fab space. I can handle that kind of problem.
yeah, CPG had a super quarter. The next quarter should be a killer too. After that, maybe AMD can change the allocations of products to produce more of the high end stuff. I really hate to see AMD having to make those sorts of decisions.