is...itchy
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Ah, I almost forgot Scripo...
It's the nature of the herd Risk... It is to be expected. Guys like yourself, myself, Imi, Bet, Danny, Wall and a handful of others know how to agree to disagree and be constructive in our critique. Unfortunately, the world is full of egos and not everyone went to charm school. All that matters at the end of the day is how ones' P &L is. Sometimes we lose and we are wrong. Pikers usually are the ones who are first to, as my good friend JB Smoove told Larry David "get all up in that azz"... it's human nature.
I am not saying this will happen, but I have seen it before in cases of extreme bearishness. I wouldn't not at all be surprised to see crude set new highs by the close. Unlikely, but not out of the question.
Just bought more UWTI @ 2.10 and 2.11 on the sell off from the inventory... I think that was the flush... I am now at an average of 2.20. If oil gets itself back above 31 then it should be higher for the rest of the week.
I am all over it at 25 to 28... Hoping it gets there.
Are you going to freakin' nit pick Imi? LOL
Yes, the same thing can be said for those levels.
198 is where we broke down from, so we rally back and fail again.
Imi, fwiw, my technician friend says 198 and I concur... that can be though +/- 1 point.
Imbalance
Sorry, had to step away for a bit.
55% to sell with $200 mil to sell.
I was taught a long time ago by one of my mentors, "There is always volatility at tops and bottoms and they can be broken down to your respective time frame"... yesterday and today have been showing the bottom volatility. I think we trade higher and I think oil will lead and because it's opex as well. Don't get me wrong, oil bottom most likely isn't in for the intermediate term, but short term I believe it is.
I agree, they are pegged together for sure. While I do believe oil heads into the 20's, I think there is a small relief rally brewing.
We should head to 196-198 by Friday... Sorry, don't have time to post a chart ...opex week...
Seem like this is the week to make hay to the upside, though I suspect this won't last past the middle of next week. Did you get my oil chart?
So I guess a greasy porn sandwich served in a dirty ashtray is out of the question?
Hope you're feeling better bud!
It's just based upon the signal I see. Send me a PM with your email.
Another imbalance...
$700 mil to buy in the S&P
yes, it does look like 195-197 is possible... I'm only holding a starter position of 20k UWTI with a 2.43 avg... I have a buy signal on oil and it could move to it's 140 sma which is 40 now, but will trend down to about 38. I will take 3.50 on UWTI.
final imbalance of just $400 mil to buy
just made out pretty well on my short of UVXY... Covered it all under 40, was short at an avg around 47.
80% buys
$500 mil to buy
support right here...
if this can get through 191.57, may be a big updraft coming.
Imi Alert
80% to buy
$300 mil to buy
2 o'clock bots?
yes, I see... seems they are in a bit of parity right now. I am not trying to find a bottom, just going to keep dca'ing...
Spy should bounce here or things can get hairy quickly.
I sent my reply private by accident. I would just go straight common. It's priced like an option :)
I wish I knew man! lol
If I had to make an educated guess, I would say 28. It is an arbitrary # I chose because the range is 25-30. So we are pretty much in line with our thinking. Good luck!
Agreed, I see a similar move happening that happened with nat gas. A relief rally. I am not buy oil because I think this is the bottom.
I opened a position in UWTI this morning... I think it gets back to the 3.50 area... I am DCA'ing into it... I got short UVXY @ 45.05... on the way up. Oil could get a big surge after this flush it just had.
thinking spy is going to test 192.75 on the upside after the euro close.... Big question is do the bots show up or will they stay away... if we get a cup and handle on SPY here on the 2 min, then we should get to the upper band on the day...
We could begin to decouple from China and start showing problems of our own. I do think we have a bounce in here in the next day or 2 and with Opex on Friday they can sure get SPY moving higher quickly regardless of negative news
Earnings season is about to kick off. Should we make a move back in the 195-200 price point the next week/week and a half, I think the end of January will show that it's time to run for the hills and we go for new lows in the 170's. After that, I think there will be violent swings daily in the market up and down.
Remember, I said that we were entering a phase of significant volatility a few months ago (not looking for the post, but Imi can vouch for it since we've had conversations about it). This should be a traders market through the fall.
One thing I am concerned about is commodity defaults. I think a wave of them can be coming, but also if the middle east sees this weakness, and if the US goes into a recession, they could start running the price of oil through the roof to hurt the US consumer. Kind of an economic warfare from our "friends" in Saudi Arabia.
Lastly, where will be the safe haven???? I am skeptical that it will be gold. I really want it to be, but it just seems like a crowded market. Maybe silver? I'll call the Lone Ranger and ask...
the final imbalance was 1.7 billion to sell.
A guy on the floor said that a market guru (didn't give me the name) stated today's action could bring the S&P to 1700.
That's crazy. I don't disagree, but I don't believe that it will happen until we have a bounce.
Great Job Imi!!!
You knocked the cover off the ball! I bailed on my UVXY. I am not going to get cute with it.
80% sells
$1 Biiiiiiilliooon Dollars (Dr Evil) to sell
Imi Alert!!
75% of orders to Sell
$700 mil to sell
Jesus Christ Helen, would you just accidentally step on the damn gas already!!!
the 2 min never closed below 193.75
it's also building the same pattern from the open before the break lower from 194 (on the 2 min)