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your point about secondary stocks is well taken... and that it is August with traditionally lower volume... add that to the financial report and the conference call... a rather perfect storm... no doubt... this too shall pass...
"do you think the guys running the company are that technically proficient"
I absolutely do... yes... but much more importantly... Microsoft... Novarad... and New Caney think so too... Michael Dell as well...
much of what is being posted here on ihub daily is pure nonsense... GW as a gimmick... GW as vaporware... pure nonsense...
if you follow the stories of these companies... and they are not stupid companies... and they do not employ stupid people... or easily duped people... ANY who believe the bear thesis... should at least give management credit for being masterminds of trickery... for that is what they would have to be to have fooled the people they have put this product in front of... think about that disconnect for a moment... bears are asking us to believe that management is at once both inept at communicating to investors, while they are experts at deceiving the experts in their field... a rather rare combination if you ask me... so while management is not able to handle retail investors in a conference call... they can totally convince Microsoft that their product "does something Microsoft cannot" when in reality it is vaporware...
I wonder how many here remember that Simon Bramfitt began as a skeptic of GW... and over time his opinion changed... Simon is pilloried by bears who in fact pillory ANYone who does not agree with them... Simon knows what GW can do and be and become...
The IT guy at New Caney actually created a presentation for his peers about the effectiveness of GW...
Novarad created a lead product around glassware and named it Novaglass... then after a year long relationship with S3D decided to double down on that relationship and utilize the entire product line... tells you what they think about the technical expertise of S3D...
Azure is the future of Microsoft... make no mistake... their CEO has staked everything on this transition to the cloud... and they made it very clear from May through July in a variety of presentations how important snapcloud and GW were going to be to their strategy... "S3D will be one of our most important partners"... the bears want you to think this is fluff speech...
there are more developments on the way... much more... I am not so much an ardent supporter as I am a confident investor who has done a great deal of DD... I know this story inside and out... S3D's balance sheet is not great... but then no company at this stage of its development has a great balance sheet... its portfolio of products and the platform it is creating are terrific... while I have underestimated the time and effort required to fully monetize this ip... I am confident I have not underestimated its ultimate value... jmo... glta...
PB tweeted in late 2014 that 2015 would be about making GW scalable. That's what G-series device and GW on Azure is all about. Scaling begins this year. Massive scaling in 2016... jmo... glta...
you are right on all counts... I will consider your advice... thanks for taking the time... these are difficult times for retail investors... I get frustrated that so much misinformation is being spread around when there is a great deal of positive going on with the company that simply cannot be spoken of at this time... but of course... I cannot stop the nonsense... while these are dark days for the stock price... business is developing nicely... and yes... you are absolutely correct... monetization of platform commenced only six short quarters ago... investors throwing in the towel is like a football team giving up because the opponent marched down the field with the opening drive and scored a touchdown...
a most excellent post... thank you... as tim has said in the past he invested in a business and not a stock... I very much share that viewpoint... the stock market has a mecurial temperament to be certain... I am very pleased with the development of S3D... the business I have invested in... less pleased with the stock... thanks again for your thoughtful perspective... jmo... glta..
if you predicted it a year ago, then you must have done very well indeed... congratulations... yes... I have looked at the financials as well as many other things...
Nonsense... there are many reasons not to break out GW for quite some time... Amazon did not breakout AWS revenues until this past April... a decade after AWS was launched... see link below for story... that is 40 or so quarters into the monetization process... q2 was GW's 6th quarter of monetization...
http://siliconangle.com/blog/2015/04/23/amazon-breaks-out-aws-figures-in-q1-results-and-it-turns-out-cloud-services-are-highly-profitable/
They are clear communicators with a coherent plan... however, I will concede that one must listen carefully to get that... jmo... glta...
Listening to the conference call again last night I was struck by how opposite this management team is from a slick, hype-type management... of which there are plenty in the stock world... these guys are a bunch of tech/business geeks... if S3D was all about hype the CC would have been very, very different... more convinced than ever that this management team has an effective plan to fully monetize a remarkable ip...
For anyone unclear about what the Novarad deal means I would suggest reading orion nebula's excellent post on the subject... which is a sticky...
Viking... here you go... just follow this one back to my comments on the filings from Friday... as always... jmo... glta...
I listened again to the conference call.... management has an excellent business development plan and is executing brilliantly... they are not good at communicating with retail investors... many of whom are in a panic and finding it difficult to hear anything over the roar of red in their portfolios... some have sold low and locked in losses... very sad... these are brutal times for retail investors... but the fundamentals of the company have never been stronger.... jmo... glta...
The most important number today is volume... over 1.25 million... retail is no longer in charge... this is a whale bear samba... and both are glad to steal retail shares on the cheap...
Really appreciate your charts and explanations...
indeed... one is left now to choose between starkly differing investment theses...
the bears who say the company is worth either very little or worthless... a money losing entity that will never turn a profit or perhaps a tiny profit at best with a niche market product...
the bulls who say the company has disruptive technology that will contribute to a revolution in cloud computing... a paradigm shift level of disruption that will eventually prove it is worth billions...
imo... the overwhelming evidence is on the side of the bulls... the litany of testimonials from those who actually know the ip/platform and the material business developments are very, very long...
each investor must choose where to go from here... imo... the investment risk at these levels is greatly diminished... and the potential reward staggering... GW on Azure announcement is imminent... traction in healthcare and education verticals in this quarter... retail investors may or may not get this... i can assure you whales get it and are enjoying bargain prices...
i find the endless hand wringing here to be remarkably short sighted... but then again... shorts know retail investors better than we know ourselves... they know they can generally force capitulation if they try hard enough... that is, until the revenues come... jmo... glta...
Thank you. To both you and falon.
Great post. Thanks.
Excellent post. Thanks. And thanks again for sharing with us from your conversation with PT.... never hesitate to post from it... we need reminders.
Actually I believe this shows that I was correct about this one. There is no difference between goal and guidance legally. If there was then management could have continued to say it is a goal while denying that they were providing guidance and thereby skirting the Canadian regs...
Let's not forget it took Nutanix 11 quarters once it began monetizing ip to reach a 200 mil run rate. S3D is currently in its 7th quarter... so it's more than a bit early to call this a failure...
"btw r u their general counsel?"
Sadly no. If I were I wouldn't have been wrong so often on timing guess we'll just have to agree to disagree...
"cuz im not that type of guy"
Lol... I must have struck a nerve... I've written lot's of posts and been wrong plenty... and never hid from it nor denied it... keep digging... you'll find plenty more... enjoy...
I was wrong about q1 revs no doubt. And I admitted to being disappointed as well as wrong. No shame in that Franky. This has taken longer than I thought it would. Doesn't change the simple reality that material developments have been very positive since then... and I am well aware that you are not here to save anyone, but thanks for clarifying
Didn't we already have this discussion. The tech is in good hands. They are moving everything forward quickly. They are executing their business plan brilliantly. They do not do a good job of communicating with investors. That's all the more I'll say on that...jmo... glta...
Simon...
1 was duped
2 joined the conspiracy
3 knows the tech and wanted to be a part of it
Which answer appears most reasonable?
Yep. This is one more in a long line who have come to save us poor delusioned longs... sadly I for one appear to be beyond saving...
after awhile they become pretty easy to spot... new moniker... same old song... q3 is the beginning of the turn in revs... imo... it won't happen all at once, but it is starting...
Yes. It's minutiae designed purposefully to assist retail investors in taking their eyes off the material developments...
This management team couldn't sing a good song if their collective lives depended on it... they are the precise opposites of promoters... they've bungled 2 out of 3 conference calls this year... what they are good at is solving certain kinds of IT problems... and we know this because those whose problems they've solved have told us.
If you think we are invested here because we are listening to management, then you really don't get it. We are listening to the clients, partners and customers of S3D...
Over a year ago Novarad teams up with Sphere 3d and creates Novaglass. A few months ago Novarad signs an expanded agreement with Sphere 3d to refresh 400 sites. Yesterday we were informed that there is another deal, which is separate (new) business from the Novarad refresh, but which in some way is connected to or grew out of or related to the Novarad deal... what does this mean? ...ever hear of customer satisfaction... understand the people who see these products in action... want more... someone sees the new shiny toy or the problem solution and says... I want that... from Novaglass to 600 medical sites to be refreshed using ANY products... in less than 18 months... not half bad for a bunch of vaporware - eh? traction in the medical vertical has begun... jmo... glta...
#whatisthatworth
so i noticed a lot of noise around the form 3's today... three form threes... is this a problem? well... let's take a look at them...
1) the first is registration of shares for the purchase of RDX... if you don't like this purchase, then sure... it's a problem... if you understand the product mix and what the company is trying to do regarding hybrid cloud solutions... and the role RDX technology may play within the product mix, then you understand it adds value to the company...
2)the second is a registration of shares for the 40 million dollar shelf offering... is this a problem?... if the company squanders it, then sure... it's a problem... if on the other hand they utilize these funds wisely... and the money goes to grow the company... then again it adds value to the company...
3) finally there is the registration of shares (4.4 mil) which got a lot of buzz on the board today... for some folks who are pretty well off... who hold a lot of shares... and who want the right to sell them in the future... is this a problem?... well it certainly means more shares could become available on the open market either immediately or at some time in the future... wonder why these folks want their shares registered at this point in time??? 1) perhaps the company is failing and they want to dump all their holdings before their shares become worthless 2) perhaps they just want to keep their options open and may need money in the future 3) perhaps they, like most investors, want to make money on their investment, and they realize that q3'15 is when the revenue traction is going to begin the revenue ramp... so they wanted their shares registered in order to have the opportunity to cash in at a price of their choosing... we really have no way of knowing what the circumstances and purpose of these individuals are... and a case can be made for wildly good or wildly bad (sky is falling) motives... but really we just don't know... what we do know is that these shares are already accounted for and are not dilutive regarding the fully diluted share count...
there it is... three form threes... which tell us very little about the direction of the company... they could be good... they could add value to the company... or they could be trying to signal the pending doom... at least that is the way the bears see it... but then again when it comes to ANY... the bears pretty much see everything as harbingers of doom...
... lot's of focus on three form threes today... meanwhile the company prepares GW for Azure... technical work is finished... just putting the finishing touches on the roll out...
#juxtaposetinyvshuge
#GWtirekickingtocommence
i agree...welcome aboard Simon... the management team keeps getting better and better... jmo... glta...
we may have to just agree to disagree on this one... as I said... they are terrible at communication with stockholders and so on in terms of telling this story to the investment community... but you put them in front of a few Microsoft executives/engineers and such and let them demonstrate their wares... well... let's just say they are gifted at that... they are executing brilliantly in developing the business... that is my opinion and it is one based on quite a lot of information regarding what is happening... 12-18 mos from now you and everyone else will know whether my assessment in this regard is correct or not...
...why is the share price where its at... many reasons... management's incompetence in effectively telling this story is one... bears and shorts are another... few here understand the tenacity of the shorts that have battled this stock from the beginning with the intent of putting it out of business... if they are smart... they will cover and move on... because w/q3 comes the beginning of the revenue ramp... I didn't expect much from this quarter and I don't know anyone who knew much about this stock who expected much either... finally retail panic is the third contributing factor to the current share price... imo... this is a time to buy... not to sell... blood in the water... blood on the streets... time to buy...
...shorts played hard and won an opportunity to cover... and so it goes... jmo... glta...
Yes. Retail is very predictable. Not all of us, but enough of us that it works every time.
800 k volume yesterday... approaching 800 today at noon... likely over one mil today... there are some happy bottom feeding whales... Christmas in august... these are the dog days of capitulation... once they are over... the next climb begins... jmo... glta...
"After learning this and that the PLATFORM will be part of AZURE... Mind-boggling."
Precisely. By the way it is a lot quicker and easier, though, less profitable to monetize and market a simple product. Takes more time to monetize and market a platform... but if successfully... whoa... does it ever pay off big time...
#howmuchisthisworth?
#GWtheubiquitous
I agree with you that they are terrible at communication with shareholders... but they are executing brilliantly... they haven't changed the strategy... they are executing the game plan... and it is a huge game plan... Miscrosoft execs had nothing but good to say about spiffy management... so yes... they don't communicate well... but they are executing brilliantly... jmo... glta...
Agreed.