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Sure, it is possible that good news may be possible in a year or two. Anything is possible. Doubtful at this point NWBO survives long enough to see it.
The information does not provide anything conclusive regarding DCVAX said the market..
Because certain posters continue to perpetuate false hope of major catalysts, I thought it would be appropriate to post information to hopefully provide some balance and objectivity. I suspect there may be motivation to generate excitement that a major catalyst is looming right around the corner, with the main objective revolving around the sale of short term options (IMHO).
Therefore, I feel it is necessary to remind the board of comments recently made by several bullish (but honest) posters on this MB.
I would also remind folks that there hasn't been anything new released at prior conferences, so set you expectations accordingly. We will likely see an increased effort in the coming days to project that major news is forthcoming at one of the upcoming events. It isn't likely. For whatever reason, LP has decided to keep us in complete darkness. There isn't any reason to think this is suddenly going to change. GL
"It's clear to me that they believe they are on to something special but that the kind of news that will deliver shareholder satisfaction is not a few weeks away but more like a year plus a few months away.” - Jack2479 after a recent phone call with Les Goldman
"The fact that they were so busy cleaning up site information made some of us suspect they are applying for Fast Track or Accelerated Approval. Linda said no to AA” Beartrap12 after attending the annual shareholder meeting.
No word on the partial clinical hold NWBO is currently under. No word on when screening will resume so the remaining patients can be enrolled into the L trial. No word on the status of the Direct phase 2 trial that Linda Powers said would start "soon" over 13 months ago. No word on the investigation into Linda Powers and Les Goldman. NWBO still trading near all time lows at close to $2 a share.
Okay, I think that just about covers everything. Carry on.
Not sure if anyone noticed. The IBB and XBI were both up nearly 4% today. NWBO up .02. Just my 2 cents.
You forgot to mention the CREW report about the manipulation of NWBO that was filed with the SEC over 5 months ago.
The other 40% were already registered and can be sold as well.
That's what Kelly is for.
Just thinking hypothetically here.. If one were to seek financial damages due to something like legal impropriety, or similar allegations of misconduct in a lawsuit, one would need to book 'official' losses first, right?
We would see any significant increase in volume and he would have to register sales 4 days from when his first sale occurs, right?
I think you are on to something. Minus the price spike thing. Now he has a way out. The timing is far too obvious to be a simple coincidence.
I guess you are right. There's always the pink sheets. Less reporting requirements which will suit LP just fine.
I'm worried and I think you should be too. Unless you truly don't care about your investment here?
Wasn't it you that asked the other day if maybe NW's Oct. NDA (if there was one) was now null since the video was out? Think you may have received your answer today..
I know, but it does seem sometimes like anything goes. No enforcement of naked shorting rules, manipulation, etc. What do you think is going on? Good or bad? Do you think this is the last song of the dance?
Maybe they can create more counterfeit shares to cover with.
Why don't you call Les again and find out wth is going on? If NW sells 15m we will be trading pennies here. Maybe he is getting ready to turn Kelly's investigation over to the SEC or FBI? Either way, NW throwing in the towel likely means game over for all of us.
I appreciate your impartial attitude beartrap. Much more rational than many other longs here who prefer to go on attack first rather than consider questions/concerns that don't align with their desired outcome. I have a few theories, but feel like most are a complete shot in the dark based on the limited information available. I'll post a few of them later today.
Maybe, Eval, maybe. Sometimes I prefer to go with the most obvious explanation when trying to decipher this puzzle. In this case, I would take the everyone statement at face value to mean everyone, including placebo.
One example of why time is of the essence for NWBO. Maybe it will start to click for Afford and others why it is so critical for NWBO to wrap up the L trial soon. If they intentionally delay the L trial enrollment and a more effective technology is discovered..game over for DCVAX before it even has a chance for commercialization.
She may be blinded, but she knows that everyone (including control group) is living longer than expected.
"I guess all I am saying is that this is yet another intriguing clue that leaves bulls and bears clueless." - I completely agree!
Smokey, that was my first question when I watched the video. Is Liau actually referring to reaching the 1st IA? If so, that would be a monumental discovery. I can't imagine as the principal investigator of this trial that Liau would let such a huge clue slip.
That isn't the part I am confused on. If DCVAX works it would make sense that everyone would have longer OS. The number of events required for completion counts the placebo group progression events that occur before they cross over and receive the treatment. In other words, it is impossible for DCVAX to cause a delay in the placebo group progression prior to this group receiving DCVAX.
Well why does it have to be so #'ing hard to understand everything NWBO??!! I want so badly to believe in the science which is why I stick around. But it feels so much like chasing a carrot on a string. Every time I feel we might be getting close, someone hits me over the head with a stick and yanks the carrot out of sight. So frustrating!
Beach, I'm not trying to twist this. I have watched the video several times. She sounds like she is trying to explain why reaching the total number of events is taking longer than expected. How would living longer or longer OS impact the progression of placebo patients? It wouldn't. They would progress in a few months as expected under SOC, be counted as an event, and then cross over. What am I missing? This is what is hanging me up.
"but it's not really helping our study because if the patients that didn't get anything, hopefully the control..the differences would be bigger"
No, I said the trials have be ongoing for over 15 years (actually over 16 years). The first few years of testing were strictly UCLA before they licensed it to NWBO. Most of us were already aware of this before the video.
After reviewing the LL video, I have a couple of questions/comments.
1. Liau says "it seems like everyone is living longer than expected... I guess it's a good thing the patients are living longer...but it's not really helping our study because if the patients that didn't get anything, hopefully the control..the differences would be bigger"
To me, the main point here is specifically about the placebo patients. She says "living longer", but really I think she means progressing slower because if they progressed like expected there wouldn't be any delay in reaching the events, which is what she is implying. They would progress and cross over. Receiving treatment at that point would potentially explain living longer, but it wouldn't have any impact on reaching the number of events required for completion of the study. Interesting that this scenario of slower progression in both groups matches up precisely with the scenario that Pyrr predicted caused the trial re-sizing.
This means the bar will be higher for DCVAX to show an improvement over SOC. We shouldn't forget that IMUC experienced this phenomenon in their trial which caused it to come up short of the primary end point. They speculated it was due to the placebo they used. So I am left wondering what factors are contributing to the longer PFS of the placebo patients in NWBO's trial and what impact this will have with regard to the comparison of PFS in the treatment vs. control groups? Is this information a predictor that NWBO will experience the same fate as IMUC?
Afford, I guess you do not realize the significance of time in biotech investing or how further delays may be extremely detrimental to NWBO for several reasons. To imagine that after 15 years of plugging along with this trial NWBO decided to 'roll the dice' on how many patients would be needed to complete enrollment, and then cut it so close that they missed, in an attempt to save a few bucks. Unbelievable!!
BTW, my purpose here isn't to "help" NWBO although I am convinced many posters are here specifically for promotional reasons. Ever heard of MDM or Redfish? And no, I'm not perfect, but I'm not the one getting paid half a million dollars a year to steer the ship. It would be completely reckless for the CEO to gamble with the enrollment like that. I highly doubt it happened which was the point of my original post to beartrap.
So you are saying they realized they missed by a few patients (great job by NWBO BTW) sometime in November, screened enough patients to get them to the finish line sometime in November/December and we should receive a full enrollment announcement sometime in February? There are two very interesting components to this speculation. First, is that patients would have been screened during the partial clinical hold for screening implemented in August that has never been lifted. The second is that additional patients would have been screened/enrolled after the clinical trial status was changed to active/not recruiting. Guess that's the fun part of speculating. The sky's the limit :)
"i would add that the new financing was maybe a good low body blow to emphasize her indignation.
Yes NW is the crown prince of British financial investing and has
gotten used to using his weight to get what he wants. LP may have
wanted to let him know that she is no push-over and deserves some respect too."
Yeah!! And if she drives NWBO into bankruptcy that would really hit him where it counts. That would really show him.. Go Linda!! Nail the institutional investor who showed faith in the science and was willing to put nearly 200M on the line to support your chances of success. Take it to the SOB!!
I have asked you several questions over the past week that you have selectively avoided, so I don't feel compelled to answer your question. I'm sure you were hoping I would stop posting :) The ideal MB would be a nonstop promotional campaign, right? Have you identified the connection yet between a company's ability to raise funds and their ability to continue as a going concern?
And what about shorting flipper? What would the reporting requirements be for either Woodford Investments or Toucan Investments to report on shorting activity? How soon would we know about it and would it be possible to identify the specific institutions short interest (if any) in the overall short interest? TIA
No news today and nothing has changed this week except the price.
We can assume the L trial still hasn't reached full enrollment since it hasn't been announced. The L trial continues to be delayed by the screening halt that is still in effect per the PR today. LP stated multiple times at the annual meeting that the screening hold has delayed the trial which completely dismantles the theory that it was planned or that enough patients to finish enrollment were in the pipeline.
The Direct phase 2 still hasn't started. It is doubtful the plans have even been approved by the FDA and it is possible they haven't even been submitted for review yet.
The share price fell another 27% this week due to management's silence about the partial clinical hold and the lack of any news as well as the total uncertainty of the status of NWBO's only two pipeline products.
The diehards continue to spin positive yarns as the share prices rapidly moves closer to penny stock status. Yep, nothing new to report this week. Hope everyone has a great weekend.
Pop quiz for those who will be reading the board this weekend. What will the terms of the next toxic financing look like if we extrapolate the discount necessary for the last one at the current price of $2.30? Using the discounted price calculated from step 1. how much dilution (# of shares and warrants) will be issued to raise 42m this quarter. The 42m is based on the funds necessary for operations last quarter. Hint: be sure to include the rebalancing and additional shares/warrants required for Cognate with all financings under $4. GL
Afford, how long do you think it would take NW to sell 25m shares right now if he wanted to? What do you think would happen to the share price if he dumped even 10m all at once? We don't know if he has been selling or shorting to reduce his ownership. The article doesn't indicate if he has, only that he still owns something.
I believe he is conducting his own investigation into NWBO and who knows what he is doing or will do when more information becomes available from those efforts. It all depending on what comes to light. He may keep all of his shares and move forward with an attempt to remove LP. There is absolutely nothing new or conclusive to be learned from his recent comments. Not sure why you think they are significant.
The next couple of short interest reports will be telling of recent trading activity.
I agree Eval. How did the folks that bought DNDN when it dropped into pennies fare? Lose 99% of your investment and then lose even more by adding right before bankruptcy. Sounds like a great idea, but who am I to say. My investing track record isn't exactly stellar.
I thought the same thing. Also interesting that previously Les and Linda couldn't breath without blaming every drop in share price on the shorts, but after a 20% drop in one day, there's no mention of them in this PR. Makes me think they know exactly who is selling this week and are being careful to avoid the liability of blaming the shorts like they normally do..
I believe NW first tried to work this out with Linda behind the scenes before taking it public. That's what I would expect from someone of his caliber.
Yes MM's and shorts covering. Have you ever experienced a stock that sold off heavily after bad news? Someone buys all of those shares too.
One more thing before I go. I hope certain posters here recognize the role they played in convincing people to stay invested over the past few months. I apologize if any of my positive posts played a role. I'm not recommending anyone buy or sell at this point. Only that you all use this as a lesson in two things. First, understand and account for the risks of over allocation in a single stock. Second, don't be swayed by MB's. There are very intelligent sharks out to get your money. Be careful and think for yourselves. Good luck. I truly hope that all of you who lost money here (like me) make it back in other investments.
My guess too. How many tens of millions of shares to go? Enjoy folks.