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Heck, when I bought bait it was so much more expensive than now and has already been cut. I guess I have to stick around and play "Go Fish." So far the fish are only nibbling at 99 cent bait. Yesterday starting at 3:30 the action started and then in the last 3 minutes the fish quit feeding and sounded.
I'm not sure where GE would play in this market. About a year ago I contacted some of my former colleagues, involved in the shipping side of LNG, and sent them links to Capstone. I also spoke to marketing at Capstone providing them with contact info for some of the big players in this market.
I can see where Capstone could play in this market, just supplying electrical power to the FSRU. I suppose the problem would be not enough waste heat to to vaporize the LNG which is now done with non-superheated steam.
Retirement is a wonderful thing, if we can make some money LOL.
I left home about 1530 wondering if the big takedown would occur while I was out. Fortunately I was and didn't have to result to the hammer therapy. What the heck happened in the last three minutes to cause 300,000 shares to change hands? I suppose I was a bit early in my wondering if the shorts would run it up to $1.03 and take it down Thursday.
Well that depends on many factors such as ship size(s) in a ship to ship transfer, cargo temperature, and return gas capabilities. The floating facility, such as used in Boston (take a look deeper in the Excelerate link I included) the cargo is vaporized (regased) aboard the feeder vessel and piped ashore into the land based pipe infrastructure.
In a ship to ship operation the feeder ship transfers liquid to the FSRU. Assuming the FSRU is cooled down you could expect 10,000 cubic meters per hour at full rate. The same goes for a ship transfer of LNG to a shoreside import terminal. The average turn around for the 1st generation ships, is about 20 hours which includes mooring, piping hook-ups, cooldown of the shoreside piping, rate up, rate down and custody transfer. Again a full rate at 10,000 cubic meters per hour is normal discharging through four 16" lines.
Keep in mind that an FSRU is pretty much like a peak shaving storage facility and regases at the rate of consumption ashore.
LNG ships are slotted in pretty much like aircraft. There is a pre-determined window for arrival and departure. A lot of logistics have to fall into place and all are subject to weather, especially the wind velocity and visibility.
I hope this helps. There are plenty of other links that can provide more information should you desire.
I wonder if the IH's will walk it up to $1.03 and then short the heck out of it on Thursday. I've got my hammer ready if they do.
I forgot to mention Excelerate's Offshore Regasification:Gateway solution last night. This could, if they decide to expand the natural gas infrastructure, significantly speed things up. Nevertheless, our (Capstone's) reputation with Japan needs to heal and move forward. DJ mentioned about a year ago that due service and other issues they had more or less lost that market, but were diligently trying to regain a foothold. In Japan culture the customer reigns; they don't forget or forgive easily.
Rereading my posting from last night I see a misplaced paragraph (the second to last should have moved up to the 3rd position. That can happen when thinking about trading at the tail end of a nice weekend at mid-night.
Just a bit more on Japan and FSRUs. Japan just completed its first ship to ship (shuttle to FSRU) several months ago. This type of LNG Carrier operation isn't just a concept it is a reality. As the article you posted points out the problem right now is securing tonnage to carry out the task. Check out Excelerate Energy Excelerate Energy for a good overview of the industry.
Interestingly, Indonesia has just started a FSRU project using a US built LNG Carrier, the LNG Aquarius. The reason I say "interesting" is because the LNG Aquarius delivered the first cargo out of Bontang, East Kalimantan on the island of Borneo Indonesia in August of 2007. That cargo was delivered to Osaka Gas, in Osaka, Japan. The Aquarius also delivered the first ever LNG cargos to Japan's 4 other LNG receiving facilities. The Aquarius again loaded the first ever export cargo out of PT Arun, on the island of Sumatra Indonesia in October of 1978 (the PT Arun export facility is now being converted to an import facility, which is of interest because here in the US our import facilities want to convert to export facilities.) The LNG Aquarius was joined by 7 sister ships all built in Quincy, Mass., and evolved into the largest LNG trade, by tonnage, at the time, i.e. from Indonesia to Japan. The Quincy ships, now known as "the old ladies" are still in operation today, commanding premium day rates, but unfortunately not under the American flag which was lowered 12 years ago.
In the late 60's and early 70's MITI (Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry) made a decision that the main electrical power source for Japan would be Nuclear generated, leaving but a few scraps to appease the natural gas industry. It remains to be seen whether or not the Nuclear Plants will be restarted, as Japan struggles through it's energy crisis, but according to Bloomberg Japan Wins Scientists’ Panel Nod to Restart Atomic Reactors.
Having depleted the natural gas fields in Sumatra (exporting LNG to Japan,) Sumatra now finds itself shuttling LNG from Bontang to an FSRU moored in Jakarta Bay. Again, the LNG Aquarius inaugurated that trade. Funny how the world turns.
Reading the linked articles you will get but a glimpse of the burgeoning demand for natural gas, which of course bodes very well for Capstone if they can execute.
Funny that you posted that as I was going to post some links about the same thing. FSRUs are already happening in Japan as well as other markets. The older 1st generation LNG ships, 125,000 cubic meters capacity, are currently in high demand. Charter rates for the mid-70's era are commanding 70k a day right now. I'll post some additional links if you would like. I'm pretty well keyed in to that industry.
Very low volume today. I don't believe I've ever seen the "ask" at 1/10000 before i.e. .9834
Capt & Bill--thanks for the analysis and commentary, very good as always. Where to start?
Entry points--I've had many that looked about right to me, but at the current time I appear to be a bit short sighted.
Siemens and GE--I agree that they are positioned for a larger propulsion system whether it be power plants, ship's, jets, etc. I was having a difficult time wrapping my head around a sewage treatment plant so large that a GE turbine would be appropriate. I agree that Capstone has a niche in that market, especially considering the cascade use of exhaust heat for sterilization of effluent. I wondered why the article mentioned the three other players for larger requirements as you could start stacking C1000s in there. Perhaps it is the initial cost, who knows?
Charts, trend lines, golden crosses, ad nauseum, would appear useless in a heavily manipulated stock. All I know is upward trending lines are a whole lot more fun than the downward ones. I don't short so have missed out on a lot of fun lately.
Cash burn--I would hate to see that diluted 100 million go up in smoke. That's a lot of green, especially since it doesn't seem so long ago that DJ stated that there wouldn't be a need to raise additional cash. Pie charts showing potential markets and expected capture percentage are pretty, but results are more attractive. I think that Capstone needs to focus their R&D and sales force on projects that they know the product works well in and sale sale sale. After profits start building a cash stash then start working on the automobile, buses, and BS pie in the sky projects. Don't spread too thin or you will fall through the ice.
The BOD should take a close look at the pay DJ is getting and determine if his performance is worth it. If profits do come by December 2012 fine, if not... money talks and BS walks. Same goes for the rest of upper management. Stock incentives are a great way to encourage the manufacturing staff to stick around, but if those options are constantly underwater where is the incentive?
This is certainly a story stock and the narrative continues. The biggest game changer since the inception of Capstone is the shale gas "discoveries" in the last 3 years. The door is wide open right now and if management can't execute in this environment we longs are toast. When I read about duel fuel and tri-fuel diesels penetrating the marine, data, trucking, bus, and rail industries to name a few, begs the question; is the cost differential, between a micro-tubine and a diesel, taking into account the vast difference in maintenance and efficiency between the two, the reason these folks continue with reciprocating engines, or is it the well known fact that a diesel will "last forever" when maintained properly, especially so if using a clean fuel like methane. How long will a Capstone micro-turbine last?
Not really being conversant in Fuel Cell technology I do read about a lot of money and R&D being spent on them. Each data centers being built using fuel cells means a missed opportunity to me. This game has to change, and change quickly, or we will be left in the dust.
I am still an avid believer in Capstone, my holdings are proof of that, and I really don't want to take a bath on this investment. Usually my instincts are correct, but my timing is off. For all of us longs I sure hope to see some positive news 9 days from now. The time to produce is now. If we can't do it with 2+ dollar gas now, I see no reason to believe we can do it in the future. The thirst for natural gas has never been higher in the world than it is today. JMHFO
Thanks for the pep-talk Capt'n we need something positive here.
Something like this would certainly help.
Westport Inks Deal with Caterpillar to Develop Natural Gas Technology for Off-Road Equipment, Shares Soar 19% 06/05 10:29 AM
10:29 AM EDT, 06/05/2012 (MidnightTrader) -- Westport Innovations (WPRT:$26.75,00$4.48,0020.12%) is up 19% after the company inked agreements with Caterpillar Inc. (CAT:$84.07,00$0.81,000.97%) to co-develop natural gas technology for off-road equipment, including mining trucks and locomotives.
Caterpillar (CAT:$84.07,00$0.81,000.97%) and Westport will combine technologies and expertise, including Westport High Pressure Direct Injection technology and Caterpillar's (CAT:$84.07,00$0.81,000.97%) off-road engine and machine product technology, to develop the natural gas fuel system. Caterpillar (CAT:$84.07,00$0.81,000.97%) will fund the development program. When the products go to market, Westport expects to participate in the supply of key components.
Development programs will start immediately for both new and existing engines, combustion technology and fuel systems. Commercial production is expected to begin in about five years.
WPRT is trading at $26.42 a share on a 52-week range of $19.66 - 50.19, while CAT is up 0.7%, trading at $83.82 on a 52-week range of $67.54 - 116.95.
Price: 26.42, Change: +4.16, Percent Change: +18.95
http://www.midnighttrader.com
Yes, let's hope it was a Capstone, but like you say, just being mentioned in that innovative treatment plant is a plus. Thermal sterilization of the effluent is very appealing as is of course the fuel source for running a micro-turbine in the CHP mode. This is a field that would seem wide open for Capstone micro-turbine integration.
Nice link Capt'n. What I'm wondering about is whether or not a Cap was used in the trial (couldn't tell from the photo) and about the statement "For smaller application, mini turbines from Capstone might be chosen." I guess it all Depends...
That reversal is due to your crossed fingers and my crossed fingers, feet, and eyes--no other reason makes sense.
As far as the wide swings making this a good play--it all "depends" (and I'll get to that in a sec) on your entry point; I've got several but they are all underwater. Now for those Depends...sounds like the best thing do do today, but then again you would have to unload them also, which would be about as pleasant as today's action.
Oh, I agree that any good press is good. Just watching this action today my instincts tell me that Lloyd isn't bored today.
I suppose this could keep dropping to the 85 cent level but in the meantime all I can do is watch the losses pile up and hope for a turn around.
Having no announcements from Capstone about new orders has me a bit nervous. If they are holding out to release them prior to Q4 CC that's fine, but perhaps today would be a good time to let a few out, if they have them, to stem the tide. It's been really quite since the add-on order and the C1000 announcements.
Nothing to do now but shield my eyes and hope for the best.
VFC must have writer's cramps as they regurgitate the same mantra. If CPST was a steal at a buck, 97 cents must be like hitting the powerball.
Like I said in an earlier post--"I'll take a penny up any day, 2 cents is even better."
Car Battery Start-Ups Fizzle and Solving the Electric Car Puzzle both in the WSJ this week. Unfortunately I don't have an online subscription, but did read both articles in the paper edition this week.
Nevertheless, the electric car battery conundrum still hinders mass roll-out of electric cars and therefore Capstone's continued attempts to penetrate this fledging market are a waste of resources IMHO. The hub, container port tractors, or route trucks seem more viable options for Capstone to pursue in the land transportation sector, again IMHO. This of course could change dramatically if Capstone is able to develop a smaller, cheaper, mass produced micro-turbine/gen set.
Ha ha... I wasn't being snide about reading the article, sorry if I offended your sensibilities.
Yes, I actually read the article, you linked, very carefully last night in the paper edition of the WSJ. That particular gusher in the Anadarko may help Aubrey McClendon pay down some of the massive debt he's accumulated. Mr. McClendon is quite famous for selling real estate in a continued effort to shed debt. In 2010 he sold CNOOC 200,000 acres of Chesapeake's Eagle Ford real estate and continues to sell other US assets to overseas buyers.
Many of the shale players, including Boone Pickens, have shifted their drilling efforts to oil because it is more profitable than gas at the present time, although in the last several weeks the spread between the two has narrowed considerably. This narrowing spread will pose a conundrum for the majors as they decide where to invest their well drilling budgets.
On the export side Cheniere, like I mentioned before, got in under the wire and has all the permits and financing to start the build-out of phase 1 of their liquefaction plant in Sabine. I suspect that the Sierra Club will have a tough time denying exports of NatGas to China, especially since they own the shale acreage and hold so much of our debt.
Of course drilling an oil well generally releases natural gas which will have to be flared (becoming more taboo) or consumed on-site. What better solution than Capstone? If the wells are in remote locations far from the grid it makes even more sense as those wells will still require an energy infrastructure to operate. This bodes well for Capstone IMHO.
One other point the SC seems to be missing is that as the price of gas rises, which they want, the spread between natural gas and coal will narrow (oil is plummeting at the moment) which may cause the power production industry to either continue to burn coal or shift back to it. Their logic seems a tad out of touch with energy reality as we know of it today.
Finally, I personally hope to see continued domestic drilling in both the oil and gas industry. I would like to see more of the product stay at home, but like any commodity it will flow to the highest bidder.
Yes, I've made my contributions also. CPST is actually holding up well considering the broader market. Nasty day on the street for sure.
Yes, I did read the threads aways back re: Fracking. You don't contribute to the Sirra Club I hope LOL. This whole concept would seriously hinder Capstone's penetration into the domestic drilling market.
Here's a link to the whole Sierra Club Tries to Stop Natural Gas Industry article.
Still makes me want to puke, especially on a day like this at the market.
If you read the article carefully you'll notice that the Sirra Club's interest in this is due fracking (sorry, but checking the link again I see that it is truncated.) What, at least in my mind, they are missing is that by trying to shut down the shale gas industry they will succeed in increasing the price of natural gas, making it more profitable for for the oil majors to drill.
Interestingly, the Sirra Club is also aligned with the major power producers in an effort to stop exporting domestic gas overseas. This is the first time that these two entities have sat on the same side of the table. Right now all permitting for new liquefaction plants are on hold until the DOE submits a report in August with projections of what exports will do to the price of domestic gas. Cheniere Energy (LNG) got in under the wire and has all the pieces in place to begin construction of their plant in Sabine, LA. They have pre-sold the anticipated production of the first 4 trains to 4 major concerns with 20 year contracts already in place.
NatGas has been seen as a bridge fuel into the future. It remains to be seen if that bridge will be build or if it will be the bridge to nowhere. I wouldn't underestimate the lobbying power of the SC in either case.
Sierra Clubs Natural Gas The green lobby picks its next fossil fuel target.
Makes me want to puke.
I see ARCX (P) has 3/4 million shares floated out at $1.05 which factors into over a million on the bid at the same price. At the same time there is perhaps 100k out at 1.06 on the bid. Let's see if they slap it down again.
Yep,even before I finished the above the phantom bids disappeared and the bid dropped a penny.
The 1/2 million disappeared and price dropped to 1.04 - 1.03 immediately. That 1/2 million seemed to have been a tickle as it is not reflected in the sales. Looks like someone wanted out at 1.04 - 1.05...price manipulated up then bang! Here we are at 1.03 again.
A bid on ARCX(P) for 523500 shares at $1.05. Total bids showing exceed 700,000 shares at 1.05 vs about 25,000 ask at 1.06. Brief hit at 1.07 and ARCX (P) staying pat at 1.05.
Oh man. Just mentioning Fuel Cell on this board might change the whole look and feel here. Pizzaman over at InvestorsVillage's Capstone board continually posts and extols the benefits of fuel cells over micro-turbines. Why he chooses to bash micro-turbines there is not understood, but his postings and related replies seems to dominate that "Capstone" board. I sure hope this board doesn't take the same turn.
Talking about convoluted planning...
WHERE’S THE POWER TO RUN LNG PLANTS ?
The Liberal government is pitching Asian investors and buyers on an ambitious plan for a string of proposed LNG plants on the province's north coast. Premier Christy Clark, British Columbia, is saying that the first three of them will be up and running by 2020.
What she's not saying, though, is how she'll come up with the huge amounts of electricity required to compress, cool, and liquefy the gas for these new LNG plants. Here's maybe why: BC Hydro simply doesn't have the capacity to provide even close to the amount of power required for these projects.
It also has no plan to build or buy the power that would be needed. The first three LNG proposals alone slated for 2020 would require about half of the electricity that's currently consumed by the entire province.
Through its Canadian subsidiary, Apache Corp., a large U.S. multinational energy giant, and along with partners Encana Corp. and EOG Resources, is proposing to operate the first of the three LNG projects for B.C, to be located in Kitimat. Under the terms of its application, Apache is required to source its electricity from BC Hydro and not 'self-generate' power by burning some of its natural gas reserves to create its own energy source.
That's a nice idea - but how practical is it when B.C., despite having some of the best electricity generating potential in the world, is a net importer of power? And where do we import our power from? From Washington State and Alberta. And how is it generated? By coal-fired power plants, at more than three times the carbon emissions of natural gas generating facilities.
So while the government continues to extol the virtues of requiring our new industry to purchase 'clean' electricity from BC Hydro, the planners are quietly working on plans to import more coal-fired electricity from out of province. Go figure.
"In the News" at Capstone site: Capstone Launches Capstone World and Distributed Energy Calculator Apps
Don't know what moved at 1528 but I'll take two cents and be happy about it. Give me 2 cents each day and I'll even be happier.
It was a boring day as the machines flat lined the stock right up until 1528. Haven't a clue as to what moved it then, but I'll take it.