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Will short spy tomorrow, most of the time the market goes up a little more the next day after a day like today. Overseas markets will probably go up on good news from wall st.
Zoom is selling at insane PE levels, and I don't see how it can keep earnings growing. It would have to be adopted by everybody on the planet to make current valuations logical.
Probably should be shorting qqq, but spy safer, and oil prices probably have had enough of a run too.
So tempted to short the spy at 307, but still see 310 to 315 soon.
I have found being super careful about getting into an investment, and then getting out at any price when no longer want it, has made me the most money.
Irrational exuberance can last a long time
Massive optimism in options numbers, plus the vix was up even with market up, both very bearish.
The above was true all of feb this year, and january in 2018, and the market kept going up, until it fell hard and fast.
If not for the fed, and market was were it is now, I would be close to fully margined short now.
one more trick, watch the vix for a sell signal. If it drops to 26,that would be a great short entry. It is signaling time to short is close, but that is not a precise signal. A drop to 26 would be a much more reliable short term signal.
3100 is a little more than 1% higher than right now, although one could make money on short term drops between now and then, am content to wait for 3100 or higher before shorting again.
Of course, a tweet could send us tumbling at any time,so if you want to be long, keep tight stops, and hope the carnage is not after stocks cant be traded.
for sure will short heavily, no matter what the news or chart pattern, when the spy gets over 310. I suspect it does not reach 315, but 311 would be a reasonable short sale level.
At some point, we get a 10% correction, but from what level? And when?
May 25th was not a top, next normal topping date would be early july to end of august. July 3 was a top in 1988.
August can be a very strong, or very weak month.
I suspect price level will be the signal, not the date.
will wait for 3100 on spx to short.Anything could knock this market down big, but the fed is actively propping up prices too.
When policy is extreme accommodation,then certian asset values go up a lot. This time, it will not be housing prices, or even basic inflation, Instead will be stocks and precious metals,IMHO. So slv, gold, etc probably best investment for the next year or so.
covered my 600 spy at open, over 1k gain. Not doing anything else today (well, maybe near the close if we go up a lot)
Checked, and this year, 30% made shorting (mostly made end of february), 30% made trading gold/silver stocks,and 40% made going long qld and nvda in march and april (stopped going long after 2650 on spx)
Buying the dips will make more money this year than shorting all the time, like I have the last 6 weeks.
Futures down big Could be buy the gap down open on monday.
Have seen several articles outlining how when the Fed pumped more than 5 billion a day into the market, the market went up on average .2%. When they pumped just a couple billion, it went up .05% And it went down on days they did not pump at all.
They are going to pump over 5 almost every day for the next couple years, or longer.
Betting short is becoming a hazardous occupation. I will cover my large short in spy in the first half hour of trading monday. May put on a small long position in some of my favorite stocks. Last time I did that, not one got filled, as the price did not fall enough, and had I just bought at the market on the open, would have made a ton of money by fridays close.
Every time I sell SLV, i end up buying it back at higher prices, and every time, it does go down for a week below what I sold it at, but I dont buy it!
About 30% of my market gains in the last year were trading gold and silver stocks.
Of possible interest, the market had trouble breaking above 3030 in July and sept of 2019, But then of course broke out and flew a lot higher.
The market, compared to the 200dma, looks very strong. IN 2002, the market got over the 200dma and stayed over it for over a month, then started down hard and lost 25% of its value in a couple months.
We are very overbought, which in a bull market is not a sell signal, but for sure in a bear is. Which one are we in?
It all comes down to how quickly will the economy get back to pre virus levels? If not for the fed, I believe the spx would be below 2000 now, and headed to 1400 or lower later this year.
BTW, the fed printed money insanely from 2009 to 2014, and the economy did not really recover until they stopped doing that. IMHO, all they are doing is propping up the wealth of the richest one percent, at the expense of the rest of us. The economy would be better off in the long run if the companies that took too much risk in the past went under, and the companies who can not succeed without government help (like Fracking companies and cruise ships) should be allowed to go under, then more responsible companies can take them over.
But that would be capitalism, and instead we have socialism for the rich.
I take back what I said about silver coins. They are $2 a piece higher than when silver was also at $18.5 in sept of last year.
I suspect silver will not break out above $19.5 next month, but I also sold my slv at 16.2, and although planned to buy some back at 15.8, decided to wait for prices under 15.5, and that never happened.
having so much physical silver keeps me from betting too heavily on slv, except when it is obvious it will go back up. an as long as the fed is pumping so much liquidity in the markets, precious metals will outshine almost every other asset class.
naybe dumb, but shorted 300 spy at 306 afterhours just now.
My gut is we keep rallying up to 3100 on spx next week, but also will be volatile, up and down, and more likely bad news this weekend than good news.
for the momentum chasing type, remember a close under 3030 today is bearish for monday, and a close over 3060 is very bullish for early next week.
The caveat is this is news driven market, so will there be more "good", or "bad" news this weekend? New vacine? Worse china relations? Trump tweets? My son having a temper tantrum (that is a given, when I refuse to give him ice cream before dinner. Question is how will that affect the market on monday?)
BTW, I turn 0 next week, my son turned 6 early this month. Am over 10 times his age!
I had put the order in at cover at 300, and it was the right move, but my first rule is, be cautious when getting into a position, but when I want to get out, dont try to get the last little move, just get out!
shorted 300 spy at 304.2, same i had covered yesterday at 304. Have order to short more at 306.5
back in the 1990' and even the 2000's, before things like gld and slv, i invested in cde. I see it still outperforms slv, if you like a more edgy investment.
I still have 30% of my total liquid invesments in silver.
Of course, almost half of my investments is my house, which I paid $102,000 for over 3 years ago, is worth a lot more than that now. Have put over 300,000 worth of improvements into it, almost all of the labor mine. I love to build things!
covered all my spy at 301, order put in last night. Short term pattern still looks bullish.
close near yesterdays highs would be very bullish for next week. close below yesterdays close very bearish.
Have seen this kind of behavior over and over and over at major tops, as in closing today just below yesterdays close.
cloud stocks are not going to make the kind of money wall st expects, if was willing to take more stress, would short the qqq now. Salesforce disappointed just now
Have been expecing msft, amzn, and other cloud providers to not live up to wall st expectations, but remember how in July 2005, housing stocks were flying much higher, while the fundamentals were not confirming. Markets get ahead ofthemselves, and that is where we are for the market in general, and the tech stocks in particular.
Thought was possible qqq would get close to old high, and spx get to 3000. both have happened, now do I change my plan to fit current realities, or stick to the plan and start shorting heavily now?
covered the 300 spy sold at 306.5 at 304 just now.
Still short a lot of spy, think we rally back to 306 at least by end of day.
I love Donald Trump! He has made me so much money shorting when he makes news that moves the market down sharply short term!
bottom line: Massive overbought condition still not negated, imagine market still wants to move higher and test todays highs later today, tomorrow, or next week.
Having read the bible over 12 times,super cool! I have only read the new testament twice, very inspiring stuff.
If I had to say what my religion is, am a swing trader! That is enough about religious beliefs for this board.
I stay away from eating mushrooms, other than the store bought usual ones.
Ahimsa is a primary value in my life,staying calm in face of violence has served me well in the past. Or being calm in face of market going big against me!
extreme overbought, not sure if the bear is about to start (beginning to doubt that) but at least a 2% drop back to 3000 on spx would be most likely by next week.
Am now short 800 spx, shorted 300 more at 306.5
Back in the 1980's and 1990's,the only time the market gapped up or down very much was after BIG news. Now is a daily occurence.
Not bullish when most days, we gap up then fade into close.
There was a similar overwhelming bearish number of advisors, etc, from The spring of 2008 to the spring of 2009,and the market kept falling anyway.
The fed is reducing the amount they are buying every week, this rally could run to 3130 in June, but beyond that no way.
I kept saying 3050 was possible, if only had stayed long all this time! At least was up 5% in april, and up 20% so far in may, almost all because of my large bet on slv.
of possible interest, silver has gone up from $12 to $18, but after the physical silver dollars on ebay did not drop in price when silver fell hard, they have also not gone back up in price since then. So if you bought silver coins when silver was at $12, you would have made no money. if you had bought slv, you would be up 50%
bottom line: buying physical silver is a hard way to make money. I was lucky and bought when demand was almost zero, and the premium on coins was almost zero. Otherwise, think is almost better to just buy on the stock market and forget having too much physical silver.
will start selling my coins, just not all of them. Maybe half, and then buy GOLD or SLV instead. Is like owning rental property, or owning REIT's Unless you are a dr, or like me can fix anything and enjoy fixing stuff, better to just invest.
For those expecting end of the world secnario, some physical gold, if you want to leave the country, or silver if you plan on staying put, makes sense.
When the price of food starts to explode higher in price, then end of civilization will start. Until then, the central banks and powers that be will keep any emergency under control, and use those events to transfer even more wealth into the hands of the wealthy.
West texas crude, in reality, fell to about $10 a barrel, or 1990's low prices, back on April 20th,and stayed like that for a week.
Is now back to $32 a barrel. Bear market bounce?
BTW, it was at $65 back in January.
So, if oil is at half its price, why is the market flying higher? Is this all about the fed, and short covering?
Did not see that last rally into close.
Market looks like it is breaking out. A rally to 3130 now possible.
Have been so wrong for so long, no longer have any confidence in my predictions, so will try and cover my short on any drop, and then wait. In past, every time I get to this place, marks a major top!
bottom line: Is obvious economy will improve this summer, but when will it get back to levels before this year?
Covered the 300 spy earlier at 298,just sold short 500 at 302.
Slv not going down, will wait for price under 15 to buy, but may not get it before the fall.
Market shows signs of massive strength, but the volatility is not how rallies that long legs act.
Financials doing well, is bullish
When I say slv or gold, am referrring to barrick gold.
When I compare silver to gold,is the precious metal.
Confusion reigns!
I still think slv is a better investment than gold. Silver will outperform gold over the next couple years, IMHO
am looking to buy slv under 15.5,still wary of a bigger correction in precious metals until oct.
shorted 300 spy at 301, probably too early, will wait until last hour to short more
will short spy by 1pm est. today could be the top
will short spy by 1pm est. today could be the top
will short spy by 1pm est. today could be the top
I suspect spx gets to 3000 on tueday (it would be at 2988 if trading today, according to futures), then has a big down day Wednesday. after that, too complicated to predict.
In past, when milestone was within reach, markets ordinarily overshoot or undershoot. this time, could overshoot, or like in May 2008, hit the 200dma and then fall, fall, fall.
The gold/silver ratio is at historical highs. IN past, when that ratio gets this high, silver outshines gold by a big margin.
From its low in 2008 at 850, gold rose to $1800 3 years later. Silver went from $8 to $50. Which would you rather have owned then, and which would you rather own now?
They pumped 75 billion a day the last week of the major decline in march, so even that money did not stop the market from going down.
fed is lowering the amount they are spending daily every week. eventually the market will start falling.
The most bearish thing the market could do, is gap open below 2900 and keep going down. Then the bear is back.
With this market, torn between the economic facts and the fed propping up the market and profits of the major corporations, anything is possible.