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QQQ gonna have a very
nasty candle on the daily, IF they
don't make sure to save the children...
Can you say abandoned baby??
And just like that, the confidence and gusto goes to
rats scurrying and locking in of profits -
She's already gone.
Russell going red...
Target is SPY 415
within a month...
They can't....
We are just in a much more extreme scenerio than we were 3 years ago, when they even just started the process...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165565983
What the Fed has done is
criminal... plain and simple -
but no one talks about it or addresses it.
Purposely creating boom and bust cycles -
which is fine in moderation - to help prevent extreme moves...
This activity goes WAY, WAY beyond their "mission statement" -
a slow process, over the past 5 years, which has now become
the biggest problem the planet has ever faced.
Their "to help prevent extreme moves" slogan has now created -
PURPOSELY - a very extreme condition, which cannot be solved without destroying life as we know it.
So we're to the point where
even just flipping burgers gets you $20 per hour,
along with stocking shelves, bagging groceries, etc...
And we still have some who feel this inflation will be short lived ?
Exactly how easy is it to take the wages back down from $20 to $15 ?
It's virtually impossible....
Once that bar is raised, it's going to stay up there.
And we know those costs will be put right into the finished goods price, whatever that product may be...
Along with the 50% increase in fuel / transport costs....
For anyone with logical thought, and any basic grasp of economics -
This is completely planned and no coincidence or accident...
And it comes right in stride with the $600 reporting threshold ??
And it's easy for a company to sing and dance about 5% top line growth, in an inflationary environment, when they increased their prices 15%.
I believe they are much, much more
concerned about employment and the
Labor Participation Rate than inflation...
They will keep printing 24 x 7, keep flooding the planet with the silky paper, and they want everything to climb to the moon, including debt, the markets, goods and services, everything...
Their biggest concern and the governments also, is somehow getting the velocity of money in the system to roar, even though it really hasn't since 2008.
The faster it moves, the higher level of taxes that can be captured.
Efficiency of spending doesn't matter, debt doesn't matter... Nothing other than control of the peasants, while they look at their 401K statements and think it's all fine.
Even with the "bubble of everything" environment created, look at how many pension funds are slowly drowning.
Everyone knows it's unsustainable, and even Yellen wants the government to crank up the IRS to find every penny possible to collect...
And yet the general public doesn't even realize how close to a police state and martial law it's all gotten.
Do you think the lack of goods coming into port to offload and inflation is just a coincidence? Nope....
The lack of concern that inflation is running higher than even junk bonds?
What a disaster....
5% runup in a week....
There is just no perceived risk here -
Soo many things could "topple" this pattern and market.
This is just a "game" of the Greater Fool Theory, and it has been for
Far too long.
Top 75
So the stats are back to
where we were at the 4th quarter of 2019...
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-real-sales/table/by-quarter
And where was the SPY back then ?? At the 320 area....
Nothing to worry about though...
We're just expecting sales to keep climbing -
even with the high debt and still problems getting the jobs back from the covid lockdown.
She's a ticking timebomb. I am actually surprised China hasn't just straightaway taken Taiwan already, and told the planet....
"What are you gonna do about it, Joe."
We've always considered it one of our provinces.
Gotta luv it when
What you "feel" is in sync with the market...
First 4 hours will be key to seeing if we get consolidation.
And another classic put buying
opportunity presents itself.
Buying the 10/29 450's here at the $6 area...
50% now and 50% Monday, in case we gap up...
or the 11/05 $448's are also approx. $6
Should be close to 100% gain
On these 225 IWM puts bought last week...
I will sell to get out, probably during the first hour.
Still holding 10/22 puts and we just aren't seeing any strength that lasts more than a few hours...
Nothing more than small short squeezes.
Typical games played by the boyz.
Learning how the market works is more about the powers that be, the boyz, taking the price to where they can get the action they want... They see where the shorts and longs are positioned, they know where to take the price to get them to react, and go after their money.
Thank you TT for constantly emphasizing this.
In summary, in times of volatility and uncertainty, WAITING For a Good ENTRY POINT can be the most important part of the successful trade... Waiting to spot the solid imbalance... Having the whole plan laid out BEFORE the entry can save you from frustrating losses. If what you felt was going to happen, DOESN'T happen, then walk away.
Last hour break, coming up...
You just can't flirt with a weak support like this too many times - we're gonna drop and start / continue filling the gap.
The volume is lackluster...
I still see the downward channel, just a short squeeze -
I don't feel any stimulus package is gonna bring big
Montana blue sky feelings....
And the premiums got squashed.
I gave myself time and I think the
overhead resistance is still there to provide sellng pressure -
Pressure and time....
hourly
SPY Puts added -
10/22's the 442's @ 5.76
Also bought the
IWM 10/22's 225's @ 4.12
IWM Puts bought here -
10/15's the 225's @ 3.25
Tempted to bu FB calls here -
The FB, 20211008, 325, CALLS are only at $5 area
Just thinking a squeeze is very possible...
IMHO, the IWM puts here
and now, the Oct 22nds, the at the money or
in the moneys.... 222 - 225's..
IWM currently at 222.50
224 puts are at 5.85 here
Excellent opportunity.
The bottom is NOT in and this is just a sweet rise to grab puts on.
and no one thought my
weekend post was funny....
Yep, we bounced...
It doesn't mean we're on our way to new highs,
It doesn't mean we don't consolidate, or we're going see an
October crash...
We'll take it day by day and everyone knows the scenarios.
And basically how we got here...
With a lot of help from JPow, driver of the Winnebago.
I'm working too much to watch closely, sadly...
Long term
Where we goin’ today, Mr Peabody….
We going to keep feeding the out of control system, Mr JPow Peabody ??
Yes Sherman – since we have completely gone against the common sense signals –
Since we are a private company controlling thee nation –
Since we have turned ourselves into a necessity, to ensure the elite have a corruption vehicle –
Since we know our actions have helped create the debt, which has fueled the money velocity, which continues to make the common citizens live beyond their means…
Since we have been instrumental in creating this façade of wealth and luzury…
We cannot even hint that we’re coming to our senses and will reduce the amount a nation actually owes a small private group of gazillionaires…
Okay thanks, Mr JPow Peabody….
Sure is good the citizens don’t realize what a sham the setup is –
Sure is good they don’t take Henry Ford’s advice and revolt.
And as far as that inflation situation, Sherman....
I don't care and don't even know what the costs are of common peasant items, Sherman...
I think it may do more
than just drift downward... We may see another hard drop quickly down to below 430...
Today is the last thing the longs would want to see -
Yesterday's bounce and now failed follow thru -
Look at the overhead resistance -
Hard break of the 50 day and nothing close to a "solid climb" yet back upward to test it...
Yesterday's bounce and this morning's upward gap only reduced the short squeezing buying power available.
It's been a long, long time since the SPY found itself at this scenerio,
and we know growth is slow, globally -
No one trusts more stimulus is coming, no one trusts Powell "rallying the troops"....
Check out the "box of longs here, stuck in losing positions".
SPY
BUY the puts NOW...
I think it's down we go..... From a psych point of view - BIG down day yesterday, small bounce, opening gap up and trickle down.... The "hopes" of a solid bounce here - even at least back to the 50 day, are fading - and will cause selling.
failure of the inverted h
and there it is, starting back down
Everyday is opportunity
Let the first hour or two develop and show itself.
Keep it simple and we all know the charts, the bad break and small bounce yesterday.
The overhead resistance built...
Futures up nicely... We'll see if buying comes or if we fade downward.
Hourly
We frequently talk about the intraday h. Pattern on gaps,
So I will watch today for an inverted. h.
A gap up, slight pullback, and if it can then climb to a new intraday high or trickles down.
Not sure, NY...
The last hour climb felt very controlled to me,
even a bit "lackluster"...
I even posted on the TT board that I thought we'd see it -
It just didn't go into a "frenzy"
I don't think this downside is done yet and that climb may have just wasted some upward fuel...
We now have 2 months of longs stuck above -
And actually, we know half the SPY stocks turned downward a month ago and breadth was continually getting worse and worse (this may be the important key).
We don't have coming stimulus, in fact, stimulus is being pulled -
We have the Far East getting uglier daily...
Powell can say everything is fine, but I believe confidence is gone and he won't be able to rally the troops.
Everyone also knows valuations are outrageous, and the political area is full of uncertainty...
Yeah, I am bearish, but I don't see "great things" coming -
And check today's candle -
Gotta go back to last Nov to see anything close -
at least back then we knew more stimulus was coming.
Also check $MID and how quickly ugly that got now with overhead resist...
Today's candle - Nuuuthing compares to youuuuu.....
Give me a green open tomorrow and I look to go into puts.
SPY
I will put this as a separate post...
As I am pretty sure what will occur...
How did we get to where we have
Joe, then Kamala, then Nancy as the top 3 positions?
I wouldn't trust them to handle a class of 2nd grade kids,
And they run the country ??
And don't get me started on the other sections of our government...
Maybe I'll put up items on a different IHub board.
Just give me a bounce here,
To relieve a bit of oversold pressure,
And I will look to grab puts that would profit tremendously,
When we start falling, hard and fast, down to 400...
I will sell the farm to buy at the money puts a couple of months out.
Here's a what if...
What would happen if the world quickly moved away from the petrodollar system?
From the Saudis forcing everyone to use the US Dollar as the basis?
We all know the Afghan situation was a complete clusterf....
The process taken was no process at all and it was too stupid to be left to stupidity.
And now we're back on OPEC, and now the Middle East door is wide open to
Russia and China... And now this...
I am hoping we climb right away,
And we'll see, but my emphasis needs to go back to finding my old sea legs, just in case...
Gotta remember how to stay balanced and neutral when standing in a little 14 foot V bottom amid 5 foot whitecaps... Or just get back to shore and the safety of cash, if we're looking at rough water coming.
And thanks for the compliment on knowing the boyz, the bookies only want to take prices where they can to get the action they want, to find the ways to force the crowd to react, and then turn it back around on them... Over and over again.
IF we're headed for high volatility, gotta NOT be impulsive and NOT make trades based on anticipated turns... So much easier said than done.
I know I am bearish at my core, even with us coming back down to the 50 day here... Just because of how high we've climbed during the past 18 months, but again, none of that matters when we only need to focus on what occurs the first half of Monday... One little step at a time and try to cut out the noise.
Yes, of course...
And I have also been all over it -
Check my post history of the past 2 weeks -
Here's when we were at 450 -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165844391
and here was Tues afternoon, before the Wed and Thurs runups...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165912036
And I had a very good week -
My trade posts are on TT's board.
You should get back up there -
What I am saying is there's constantly "watch and learn" condescending posts up here -
Yeah, I was correct, BIG DEAL...
I just want to find profits and share knowledge -
F the attitudes and
F the 27 year outer Mongolia charts that are supposed to be the key to the universe... Ughh...
I was just ranting - reading this board has become distasteful, but I scan it because there are gems of info, here and there...
GLTA and have a good weekend.
I agree... big green weekly candle
coming next week. She was held down all week and
today it felt like a coiled spring the last 3 hours.
I can't even imagine the money made in expired calls...
When we look at the activity of Wednesday and Thursday, the run ups, the bookies did a good job of pinching the shorts and puts....
They did their job and did it well, minimizing the profits of option holders across the board, and maximizing theirs.
Everyone was waiting for the upward spark and it never came - today...
We all know the big money on the sidelines, and we'll get that solid up move - probably starting with a 30 point up gap, either Monday or Tuesday morning.
The game isn't about the economy anymore, it's about the bookies taking it where they can make the most money by causing pain to the players. They have established the playing field, they know the bounce off the 50 day is an almost given, and they'll be ready to unleash the rocket early next week.
They know any fear will quickly turn to greed, and the ferocious climb will occur.
I had seen that Kaplan had
made trades, and held individual stocks, in a report
a few weeks ago....
And of course, we have Lizzie posturing like she's a champ for the people, as usual, while she has also gotten very wealthy....
She's like a chihuahua barking at a pack of wolves... She's no threat whatsoever, she knows it and they know it.
I'll bet Powell was laughing while concocting this statement of feces...
Powell ordered the review “because the trust of the American people is essential for the Federal Reserve to effectively carry out our important mission,” the spokesman said. “This review will assist in identifying ways to further tighten those rules and standards. The Board will make changes, as appropriate, and any changes will be added to the Reserve Bank Code of Conduct.”
He was probably laughing so hard he probably pissed himself a little...
It's been a long time since we saw
this indicator this low...
Street sentiment has dropped into the gutter, and I understand.
Not alot of potential good news on the horizon, the debt and risk of higher taxes, the slowdown, the turning off of free money...
Yes, these economic things are all just noise, until they actually have an effect on the playing field, but the money has gotten very concerned about the outlook.
Look closely at the peaks here.
Sentiment
Top at the beginning of 2017, tops in 2018, etc...
This is a pre-indicator and runs a month or two early.
When this is falling, the market is also dropping, or at least is having a difficult time climbing and is consolidating.
Yes, we're watching everything very closely, hour by hour, but the view from a mile up has gotten very gloomy.
Here's the market during the past 5 years.
Spy
I know the correlation isn't spot on, but concerned money is cautious money and many times chooses to just walk away. The tide could really recede here over the next few months.
The market is toast...
So we climbed today, after days of a downward channel.
Just a short and put pinch in the OE week. The Long's are playing Russian roulette here with half the chambers loaded. What will carry us upward? Have many compared the YTD return of the US markets to the rest of the world?
Investor sentiment is dropping, inflation is killing consumer confidence, stimulus is gone, the Fed can't be Atlas anymore... The M2, the velocity of money through the system is pathetic.
Soon enough the street is going to realize the upward channel snapped like a dry twig, and forget the 20 day, and probably the 50, then we'll see the down volume increase...
Grab ATM puts 10 days out or longer.... I think the SPY drops another 10+ points here in September and 430 would not shock me, hard and fast.
Like I said 25 hours ago...
This ramp up was no surprise -
IMHO, it will be short lived -
I bought SPY puts - portion buy 15 minutes before the close -
Next week's puts.
There's nothing good coming for this market - the China slowdown news just cannot be ignored for long, at all...
Shenanigans in the OE week....
The puts have profited nicely with the downtrend - if they take profits...
Usually the market makers push it around enough during this week to "take out and punish" both the call and put holders.
Call holders have now been worked -
watching and waiting for the pinch of the put holders.
I go back and read
my post... I look at other sources...
I look at what I posted 24 hrs ago -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165844391
I check other sources and I see nothing bullish here -
except reliance on the Fed and injections, which are vanishing...
Then I see bullish posts and hopes -
and people wondering why we're dropping...
and I am amazed.
I am astonished by those who can't see - they're blinded -
standing in the road and the bright blobs seem to be coming pretty fast....
and BAMM...
The deer in the headlights are roadkill and the ability to be cognitive and comprehend... just isn't happening.
Thank you, and when we start to analyze
the entire picture, I just shudder....
Wow, free money vanishing...
Here we have sales - the top line for companies -
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-sales/table/by-quarter
We have "gone nowhere" for 2 years...
Yes, covid should be considered, but... damn.
You can tinker with and cook the books many ways -
You can find ways to reduce costs, but wow...
In an Inflationary environment, with COGS climbing, it is soo tough.
Bottom line, IMHO, we're long past an expanding and growth economy here -
especially with the debt...
And now the free money is gonna dry up ?!?
Look out !!
And what has the market done in the 2 years ??
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales
and many gladly call for tax increases !!
When many of the old school econ minds say we're looking at a perfect storm, I have to agree...
No need to even bother posting the parabolic charts -
Just remember the consumer is 65% of the GDP.
Yep, I am bearish, and I know if I watch closely, there will be a time frame where I will make a killing. Not to be doom and gloom, but it's coming.
I truly wonder if the authoritarian steps we've seen here lately are because "they" know the fun and games are just about done.
and we also have items like this - mindboggling... Insanity...
https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-dems-want-to-monitor-americans-bank-accounts-blasted-as-violating-4th-amendment?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=benshapiro&fbclid=IwAR0fzu4DXZ-XCZtCqZ9fq0tdz6POskzgiwmZN_s0B3s9CSuOEuunsMSg5ug
This seems to have been ignored and
should we see reports today, and an update?
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/09/closely-watched-atlanta-feds-gdp-forecast-cuts-u-s-growth-by-41-percent/