Hello Board of NNVC! Two-year plus reader here, first time poster. I have drafted wordy posts in the past that I decided to toss in the garbage bin, however I am motivated to post today.
I am a long of NNVC and hold a position that I suspect is much smaller than many here. I have scaled it back recently due to other potential opportunities in the market and have a core I can live with. I also do not expect to see overnight multi-bagging on the share price here due to the multitude of factors currently effecting the market, the sector and the company.
Unfortunately, I think that these are make or break times for the company. There are many risks which have been outlined in their SEC releases and the professional skepticism I have developed in my own career brings about a cautious but hopeful optimism.
I 'found' this company in '08 while researching potential cures for a common affliction that I live with. I included other companies in that search but the 'story' behind NNVC sold me.
At times I think this could be the greatest story to be told in the healthcare market in my lifetime, and at times I wonder why they hell Management proceeds in the fashion that they have.
I am grateful for the insightful commentary I read from all posters here: the longs, the shorts, the in-betweeners, flip floppers et al.
I see big threats on the horizon for this company. Big Money pulls lots of strings and I believe that it is naive to think that the relationship of the FDA with the Pharmaceutical Industry is all totally above board.
I am skeptical of what may come of the company's engagement with BCG mostly because previously, although unnamed, the company disclosed that their was a "Big Pharma" interested in what the hell NNVC was up to, but for some reason they walked. Perhaps it was a balk on their part or perhaps they were being sneaky, we'll never know.
I am also displeased with the slip and slide dates of the GREAT MEETING with the FDA in the first quarter of '11. Whether it was calender '11 or fiscal '11 we all know they missed it, try to rationalize and defend what you will, however Management put that date out there into the public sphere. If they do not approach the FDA by the end of this calender year for many there may be no looking back. Some say sooner, but I suspect many of the longs are all in and emotionally tied to what this company could do.
I expect press releases coming, but one of the next releases from the company will definitely have to be their extension for inability to timely file. Unless I am very mistaken, the FYE was June 30. I suspect Management will file for their extension in the next few weeks and we may see a 10k by late September. I will read that 10-k to see what they have to say and look forward to it.
I am also cognizant of the potential patent risk the company faces. I listened to an interesting show on NPR last Friday concerning patent trolls in the Silicon Valley. I can see where big pharma or another informed and vulpine investor/lawyer could attempt to gain off of other's work, and NNVC could be a prime target if they actually have something that works.
Let's call a spade a spade, this company is a long shot. Even a fanatical long would have to admit that at this point. There are many odds to overcome and the competition is fierce, conniving and relentless, the market environment currently unfriendly, and regulatory obstacles to overcome.
However a long shot is still a shot, and it's the one I am taking with this company. I am a holder and will be while I see continual progress. I think that NNVC has the opportunity to create value in the world, to do good and do well but they have to deliver the goods. It is time for action....SHOW ME THE CIDES!!!