News 
Market Data 
Discover
dr_airtime
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
SIM.V - I bought for first time in morning. Thoughts...
...they spun this PR really well. Q2-16 had 2.0M of sales while Q2-15 had 2.8M of sales so Q2-16 could have been artificially low due to timing.
I note the following:
Revenue 9 months YTD 2016: 4.7M (Q2 FS) + 3.6M (press release) = 8.3M
Revenue 9 months YTD 2015: 7.2M
YoY Increase is $1.1M or 15%. Market wants to see higher growth than that. Combination of this and low Q2-16 is probably reason for retracement - and also opportunity for new buyers!
2015 revenues were $9.9M. Based on my above observations they are tracking for roughly $11.4M of 2016 revenues (15% growth). I don't think it is fair to annualize the record Q3-16 revenues.
Basic MC @ 0.27 is 18.7M (69.2M shares). FD MC is 24.7M (91.4M shares). I triple checked that this morning in SEDAR.
Current Price to Sales based on 2016 revenues then is 1.6X Basic and 2.1X Fully Diluted. Pretty Cheap.
If they show over $4M in revenues in Q4 then market should start thinking $16M annualized and potential for $20M in 2017 in which case we shouldn't see these low prices again.
Additional point - last Private Placement was at 0.35 from June and became free trading on October 11th but I doubt anyone from that will sell. You can buy below last PP, but they'll likely need additional funding in next 6 months. Working Capital was $5.5M at June 30, 2016 post-PP but that only included 950k cash.
All amounts above in $CAD eh!
CNE.TO - last reminder. Breakout today...
...add some trading shares to your core long position. I did.
Zinc - $1.10 is level to watch this week!
September correction to $1.00 looks like normal rally correction and zinc keeps going up now at $1.09 today! Just shy of $1.10 multi-year ceiling. Per below $1.10 number is one to watch as if zinc keeps going past there we're officially in a bull market and this is not just a mean reversion rally. Need to look back my notes but Wood Mackenzie (authority on zinc) is forecasting prices to peak at $1.80 to $1.90 in 2018 I believe. If we get a new Zinc ETF out of london hording or similar I'm sure someone will try what they can to push it higher.
TV.TO - market saying best zinc play.
Zinc bounced of $1.00 or "100 points" as the old boys used to say and now at 1.065 as rally continues.
Trevali has gone from .65 to 1.07 since I bought. If you own keep an eye on upper support if you are trading around position.
Listened to Teck Metals presentaiton from Tuesday conference and they are super bullish on zinc and price move now is just the start. They are one of biggest producers so other option as Bobwins points out is to buy Teck Call Options.
CNE.TO - almost ready for next leg up?
I'm hoping so and added a bunch as time is running out with current consolidation. CNE will move up violently per past 2 years of experience here. Nothing smooth with CNE so you need to anticipate.
Perhaps current consolidation is simply CNE's "centre of gravity" pulling it along per the support I've outlined on 2 year chart at bottom.
My two cents with some more cents backing it up! Sure is quiet around here....
Zinc & Zinc Miners Update
Zinc sold off through most of September but appears to be a normal correction in current multi month rally. Line is my simply support line imposed on the LME price extracted from Kitco.
Trevali TV.TO corrected sideways, was off to the races a few days ago when market digested that the selloff apeared to be a normal correction, and jumped today on some great drilling news.
HER.TO/HER.AX Heron looks like a good buying opportunity as it is at $.13 now and I bought at $.15/.16. This is a development story and they have AUD 23M of cash and AUD 21M of WC so don't need to go to market any time soon so hoping stock moves up with Zinc price. This is the latest BS:
GPM.V Has had an absolutely wicked selloff after it's rally and is at $.26 vs. my $.38 entry price. Selloff just natural and the 'subscription warrants' (whatever they are they simply convert to one share) convert to shares today on the 21st, but I don't expect any more pressure as shareholders who financed GPM this year should hold to drill results. Contacted the company and they anticipate the first release of drilling results (5000m) in early November. First batch of core is at the assay lab now.
CNE.TO - good week to add.
Working through hopefully 3rd consecutive consolidation triangle in current multi-month rally and this one is longest. At bottom right now and should break to upside when resolved hopefully next week.
SIM.V/SIMFF - seems like the time to buy...
..been following Bob posting on this for a year. It's basically never been cheaper, the last PP was at $.34 with $.50 warrants for two years and now trading at $.24 which is support since if became liquid trading on the TSXV. All amounts below are in $CAD and reference TSXV pricing.
The share price and the revenue growth chart are inverse as of late so it just makes sense to take a position. In 2016 they are tracking roughly for $10M of revenue again based on Q2 results, so flat year-over-year. I am not sure if the bump to $14M in the bottom pic below from their presentation is due the string of recent sales results resulting in strong Q3/Q4 sales or it is a $4M bump from the recent Signifi acquisition they just closed. They didn't pay a lot for Signifi ($350k cash over 2 years, 4.5M shares over 3 years) so I am hoping it is the former in which case Siyata should go higher when results out!
They hit $4.7M sales in the first 6 months so in order to hit $14M for the year they need to average $4.5M/quarter for Q3/Q4 or $9M for H2-16, a double and a higher share price...
If they hat a $14M/year run rate then they are trading at 0.6X sales as current market cap is $9M.
HUM.L - see page 27 of presentation...
...for west africa gold producer comps. Just got my interactive brokers account up and funded so can buy AIM stocks. Going to buy sunday night (London morning) as technical set-up on HUM great and should have great upside from here. Should open up strongly then IMO.
http://www.hummingbirdresources.co.uk/_downloads/Hummingbird_Investors_Presentation_Q3_2016_4.pdf
Reminder: Zinc keeps going up...
...now at 1.07. I am holding Trevali (TV.TO), Heron (HER.TO or HER.ax) and finally, GPM.V as my initial drilling results sweepstakes play.
This is the best page to monitor pricing and view the context of the rally since January (0.70 to 1.07).
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html
I also have some silver bull (SVB.TO/SVBL) but this was more of a play on buying a silver project that hadn't rallied at all at the time but they have a lot of zinc as a sweetener so am definitely still holding.
Trevali should still be the go-to-name as the only producing zinc pure play name around. They need higher prices so think the stock could walk down to the $.80 range where there is multi-year support per below.
SMT.TO - reminder. Late comer to Silver Rally...
...SMT gets about 30% of revenues from silver. Traded like a silver stock in 2011. I have been holding as it broke it's powerful downtrend line from 2011 top and then traced out a consolidation triangle even though this stock is super thinly traded. They are going to start mining their Esparanza zine which has highest grades discovered in 70 year mine life - yep, Yariococha has been operating for 70 years. Think I am going to add more here as looks like now it will go up....Just makes sense as a trailing operating silver-equivalent play.
GPM.V and Zinc...
...ummm Zinc has been on a tear and keeps going higher currently at 1.02 up from 0.97 at start of the month. Keep this page on your watchlist. TV.TO is up +.07 today and is now up 30% since I pointed out it was breaking past major resistance last week.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html
Spent a few hours looking around during work downtime. GPM's target will not be another Century Mine, as Century was not an outcropping Gossan but was a Sedex deposit discovered through years of careful, regemented exploration I do not understand (highh level outcome of my research). LEAD AT SURFACE IN A GOSSAN in the Northern Territory is a key marker of a lead-zinc deposit at depth. See extract from exlopration book extract I found as most relevant hit on google search. The geologist leading the exploration for GPM did his thesis on MacArthur River to that is a good sign.
Also - I bought HER.V today. More speculative than GPM but they have AUD $25M in cash so no need to finance in near term and can hopefully just sit and attract interest as people start thinking about zinc pure-play alternatives to Trevalis as speculative juices start to froth in zinc market.
PRU.TO - if long see slide 13
AUD $100M of new equity capital raised so all this money knows this but costs peak in October 2016 but would expect low to be put in place a few months before this but I don't expect any major selloff, but supports a correction. PRU just likely to be flat the next couple months so I am going to lighten up a bit temporarily and try to add-back near bottom of channel. Traded a bit today for CNE.TO if you look over on Junior energy board.
The cost for the new equity was AUD 0.50/share. AUD and TSX ($CAD) share price basically the same for twin-commodity currencies.
I think there is a risk then that PRU.TO could drift down to 0.50 over the next month which is also bottom of uptrend channel below.
This is a new presentation.
http://www.perseusmining.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/01756426.pdf
CNE.TO - so today is day to buy...
...got a bit excited last week and jumped the gun and didn't wait but buying more today for next bounce. Picture says a thousand words below.
WAF.V/WAF.AX - bought on maybe Roxgold 2.0
Been watching WAF.V and pulled the trigger today on news. WAF.V is in Burkina Faso, has a $CAD 85M MC, just raised AUD 12.5M, and is hitting ultra-high grade gold ore shoots at depth. They announced 18m @ 82.3 g/t today at 100m depth which could be near bottom of an M5 open pit. Current price is AUD 0.24 and Hartleys has a very speculative NAV14% target of AUD 0.48 at spot gold. When project is derisked that may be AUD 0.80 target at NAV5% (lower discount rate)
http://www.westafricanresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/01757971.pdf
Idea here is there is:
1) at least a 500k oz heap-leach project on M5 prospect
2) In a few months market will see a combined M1 (low grade oxide) M5 (high grade shoots) open pit scenario with a 10 year mine life per Hartleys analyst report below
3) Blue sky is that WAF.V develops in Roxgold 2.0 and the current success on deep exploration at M5 delineates an ultra-high grade underground
Here are some highlights from the Hartley's report (only anayst report out - Australian firm).
WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LTD (WAF)
Site visit confirms a first class discovery at Tanlouka
West African Resources (WAF) continues to discover significant high grade
mineralisation at the M1 prospect, Tanlouka project in Burkina Faso. The
high grades now have strong continuity over ~300m of strike at M1 South and another ~300m of strike at M1 North. The M1 South prospect is faulted and offset with discrete zones of ~80-100m strike length, while the M1 North body is interpreted as one continuous body. We believe the M1 prospect (North & South) is likely to be a high grade open pit mine transitioning into a high grade underground mine at depth.
One of the best we’ve seen in West Africa for some time
The M1 discovery is one of the best high grade discoveries in West Africa for some time and is testament to the persistence and expertise of the WAF exploration team. Our recent site visit to Tanlouka confirmed WAF as one of the better West African gold explorer/developers around. The combination of strong management and a first class discovery should continue to drive further share price appreciation in the near term.
Our initial estimates suggest the M1 discovery has potential to grow into a high grade (~2-3g/t Au) open pit mine transitioning into a high grade (~5-10g/t Au) underground mine. The M1 prospect will most likely be blended with the lower grade (~1.5g/t Au) M5 deposit which should provide the bulk of the tonnes to a CIL processing plant. We see potential for a blended head grade of ~2.0-2.5g/t Au at low strip ratios (currently ~2:1 LOM strip ratio at M5).
What does the combined M1 & M5 mining scenario look like?
We now model a (pre-study) mining scenario which combines the existing M5
deposit (23.6Mt @ 1.7g/t Au for ~1.3Moz, 1g/t lower cut) with the M1 high
grade discovery. Our initial estimates suggest the M1 discovery combined
with the M5 deposit is likely to justify a CIL processing plant in the order of ~2.5Mtpa. The bulk of the tonnes (up to ~2.0Mtpa) could come from the M5 deposit and the M1 discovery should deliver the high grade “sweetener”. We see potential for the combined (M1 & M5) mining scenario to produce in the order of ~150-170kozpa at low operating costs (<US$700/oz).
We now model (pre-study) the Tanlouka project to generate ~160kozpa at
AISC of ~US$660/oz over a minelife of 8 years from FY18 onwards. This
assumption is based on M1 (North & South) delivering an initial open pit
followed by an underground mining scenario. These assumptions will require further exploration and infill drilling success at M1 (North & South).
High grade at M1 distinguishes from peers, maintain Spec Buy
In our opinion the discovery of high grade mineralisation at M1 distinguishes the Tanlouka project from West African gold developer peers. We see a strong likelihood of further high grade mineralisation at M1 (North & South) and see potential for further parallel mineralisation to be discovered. We like the prospects to the north (of M1 North) and towards the Laterite Hill. The Company will now continue drilling to define the extent of the M1 discovery and gain a better understanding of the scale and potential of the high grade mineralisation. We look forward to further strong newsflow as the drilling program ramps-up and explores the full extent of the M1 discovery.
We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation and a price target of
40cps, NAV of 36c, spot NAV of 48c
Target summary. NAV is at $USD 1200 long term gold.
AI
