China’s next coronavirus crisis: What happens after a country closes its economy

https://fortune.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-reopening-the-economy-china-covid-19/

China has become the world’s pioneer on coronavirus response—a mantle assumed out of necessity. The first to encounter the COVID-19 virus in its industrial hub of Wuhan, China enacted mass lockdowns and managed to contain the outbreak. As the virus spreads across the globe, governments elsewhere are mimicking the tactic, forcing large swaths of the world’s population into inactivity, isolation, and even quarantine. But mandatory social distancing comes with a price, and Beijing’s response to the economic fallout is so far less instructional.

China’s economy endured a one-two punch under lockdown. With workers and consumers told to stay home, both consumption and production plummeted. The trade­off was a peak and steady drop-off of coronavirus cases; the vast majority of the 83,000 people infected have recovered, according to China’s count. But when data quantifying the economic fallout started rolling in, it was undeniably bleak.

“This is hands-down the absolute worst result we’ve ever recorded,” said ­Shehzad Qazi, managing director at China Beige Book (CBB). The consultancy surveys over 3,300 Chinese companies to gauge the strength of the world’s second-largest economy, and in the first three months of this year, all of its headline metrics—from revenue to profits—sank into contraction territory, a result never seen in its decade of tracking.

About 150 years of oil-price history in one chart illustrating crude’s spectacular plunge below $0 a barrel

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/about-150-years-of-oil-price-history-in-one-chart-illustrates-crudes-spectacular-plunge-below-0-a-barrel-2020-04-22?mod=MW_article_top_stories

The now-defunct May West Texas Intermediate crude US:CLK20, which expired on Tuesday, plunged into negative territory to start the week in a history-making event that saw, the front-month contract, at the time, settle at negative $37.63 a barrel before recovering some of that in the following session.

That jaunt into negative territory had never happened before that period and although the oil market was seeing some traction higher on Wednesday, with the current front month and most-active West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery CLM20, 23.37% gaining $2.21, or 19.1%, to settle at $13.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, still about the lowest level since the late 1990s, researchers at Deutsche Bank thought it would be interesting to look at oil prices over the past 150 years.

Strategists Jim Reid and Nick Burns did so with straightforward charts published April 22 that shows both the nominal price of oil since 1870 and the cost of crude in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms in U.S. dollars (follow the above link to see charts)

The World’s Largest Oil Fund Scrambles To Survive, Reshuffles Holdings Again
WTI crude @15.52 +1.74
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Worlds-Largest-Oil-Fund-Scrambles-To-Survive-Reshuffles-Holdings-Again.html

Just hours after USCF investments, the managers behind the largest oil ETF announced a 1-for-8 reverse stock split, moments ago the USO - which was briefly halted - unveiled yet another shift to its composition to relieve pressure on the June WTI Futures, and to spread the pain among even more forward months. Specifically, the USO announced that it would reallocate as follows:

June: 40% down to 20%
July: 55% down to 50%
August: 5% up to 20%
Sept: 0% up to 10%

Why is the USO doing this? To avoid a repeat of the May WTI implosion, and to prevent a crash on May 19 when the June WTI contract expires.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/oil-markets-crude-output-demand-in-focus.html

Oil rose on Thursday, spurred by rising tensions in the Middle East, output cuts by producing nations to tackle oversupply and the promise of more government stimulus to ease the economic pain of the new coronavirus pandemic.

Brent crude was up $1.53, 7.5%, at $21.90 a barrel by 0822 GMT. U.S. crude rose $1.53, or 11.1%, at $15.31 a barrel.

Oil prices have suffered one of their most tumultuous weeks ever. The expiring front-month U.S. contract on Monday fell into negative territory for the first time as traders paid buyers to take crude off their hands given a lack of storage space for the current supply glut.

So far this year, Brent has lost roughly two thirds of its value.

US crude futures contracts for May collapsed below zero for the first time in the history of the commodity markets as sellers were paying buyers to take the oil as they have nowhere to store it.
May Contract expire today!

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, West Texas Intermediate futures for May slumped by 245% to negative $26.58 as a recent production cut agreement failed to turn out to be deep enough to prevent supplies from overwhelming storage facilities.
Data compiled by IG Index show the June WTI futures were down by 14% to $21.22, and its international counterpart, Brent, was also lower by 6.6% to $26.22.

USO at 3.71

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Gold breaking out 1700
NUGT forming Cup and Handle

WTI dropped below $20



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Weekly jobless claims hit 5.245 million, raising monthly loss to 22 million due to coronavirus

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html

Only the Rich Work at Home
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/kKamXD2qb6jsFoB.Wak_MA--~A/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/bloomberg_politics_602/3305b3219b8ca4274de1ce2d105a4665

Social unrest had already been increasing around the world before SARS-CoV-2 began its journey.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pandemic-lead-social-revolutions-050011134.html

According to one count, there have been about 100 large anti-government protests since 2017, from the gilets jaunes riots in a rich country like France to demonstrations against strongmen in poor countries such as Sudan and Bolivia. About 20 of these uprisings toppled leaders, while several were suppressed by brutal crackdowns and many others went back to simmering until the next outbreak.

The immediate effect of Covid-19 is to dampen most forms of unrest, as both democratic and authoritarian governments force their populations into lockdowns, which keep people from taking to the streets or gathering in groups. But behind the doors of quarantined households, in the lengthening lines of soup kitchens, in prisons and slums and refugee camps — wherever people were hungry, sick and worried even before the outbreak — tragedy and trauma are building up. One way or another, these pressures will erupt.

The coronavirus has thus put a magnifying glass on inequality both between and within countries. In the U.S., there’s been a move by some of the very wealthy to “self-isolate” on their Hamptons estates or swanky yachts — one Hollywood mogul swiftly deleted an Instagram picture of his $590 million boat after a public outcry. Even the merely well-heeled can feel pretty safe working from home via Zoom and Slack.

But countless other Americans don’t have that option. Indeed, the less money you make, the less likely you are to be able to work remotely (see the chart below). Lacking savings and health insurance, these workers in precarious employment have to keep their gigs or blue-collar jobs, if they’re lucky enough still to have any, just to make ends meet. As they do, they risk getting infected and bringing the virus home to their families, which, like poor people everywhere, are already more likely to be sick and less able to navigate complex health-care mazes. And so the coronavirus is coursing fastest through neighborhoods that are cramped, stressful and bleak. Above all, it disproportionately kills black people.

Even in countries without long histories of racial segregation, the virus prefers some zip codes over others. That’s because everything conspires to make each neighborhood its own sociological and epidemiological petri dish — from average incomes and education to apartment size and population density, from nutritional habits to patterns of domestic abuse. In the euro zone, for example, high-income households have on average almost double the living space as those in the bottom decile: 72 square meters (775 square feet) against only 38.

The differences between nations are even bigger. To those living in a shantytown in India or South Africa, there’s no such thing as “social distancing,” because the whole family sleeps in one room. There’s no discussion about whether to wear masks because there aren’t any. More hand-washing is good advice, unless there’s no running water.

And so it goes, wherever SARS-CoV-2 shows up. The International Labor Organization has warned that it will destroy 195 million jobs worldwide, and drastically cut the income of another 1.25 billion people. Most of them were already poor. As their suffering worsens, so do other scourges, from alcoholism and drug addiction to domestic violence and child abuse, leaving whole populations traumatized, perhaps permanently.

In this context, it would be naive to think that, once this medical emergency is over, either individual countries or the world can carry on as before. Anger and bitterness will find new outlets. Early harbingers include millions of Brazilians banging pots and pans from their windows to protest against their government, or Lebanese prisoners rioting in their overcrowded jails.

Delta Air Lines Inc. was cut to junk at Fitch Ratings as part of a general downgrade of the U.S. airline industry and its ability to service debt. The assessment adds urgency to the Trump administration’s desire to save the industry.

Fitch on Friday lowered its rating on Delta’s debt to “BB+” from “BBB-” and warned that another downgrade is possible as air travel suffers with the spread of the coronavirus. The airline does, however, have more financial flexibility than some rivals, Fitch said in an assessment of the industry.

Delta, Alaska Air Group Inc. and Southwest Airlines Co. are the “better-positioned U.S. carriers to weather the expected downturn,” Fitch said.

Other downgrades by Fitch on Friday include:

Alaska Air downgraded to “BB+” from “BBB-”American Airlines downgraded by one notch to “B”JetBlue Airways downgraded to “BB” from “BB+”Southwest downgraded to “BBB+” from “A-”United Airlines Holdings Inc. downgraded to “BB-” from “BB”




President Donald Trump said on Friday that U.S. airlines must be saved. Responding to a tweet about the $50 billion bailout airlines are asking for, he said, “Not good...but it is what it is. Have to save the airlines!”

Airline Grants

Trump’s administration has announced as much as $32 billion in payroll grants for airlines, contractors and cargo carriers, controlled by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Outside firms are advising Mnuchin on the terms he should set, including what he’ll demand from the airlines in return, such as warrants for equity in the companies. Mnuchin has said the money should be more than a bailout: he’s solicited proposals from the airlines for terms on receiving the aid, and has issued guidance.

“Though Delta remains a stronger credit than its network peers, debt raised to sustain liquidity through the pandemic will drive credit metrics outside of a range supportive of investment-grade ratings at least through 2021 and likely into 2022,” Fitch said in a statement.

Airlines have been battered by the collapse in travel, and have responded by offering workers leaves, grounding planes, cutting flights and freezing hiring, among other steps. The number of passengers screened at airport security checkpoints has fallen more than 90% from a year ago, the Transportation Security Administration has said.

Unpaid Leave

Delta said almost 35,000 employees have taken voluntary, unpaid leave and is encouraging more to apply.

Volunteers to take unpaid leave “are by far the most impactful” step the carrier is taking to reduce operating costs, Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian told workers in a memo. The airline is enhancing benefits provided to those taking time off and is extending absences of as long as a year to encourage more to apply, he said.

Delta’s flying capacity at New York’s LaGuardia Airport has been cut by more than 90% this month, and by more than 80% at New York’s John F. Kennedy and Newark, New Jersey’s, Liberty Airport, Bastian said.

The airline lost its investment-grade status at S&P Global Ratings last month.

$ off its pea, 'Black Swan' fund is up 4,144% this year, warns we are 'trapped in the mother of all global financial bubbles'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/universa-investments-march-performance-164113528.html

$ slides first along with the market; then shoots up as market slides because of confidence in $ around the world; now is reversing its trend





The hedge fund founded by Mark Spitznagel specializes in convex tail hedging and investing. Universa’s specific brand of tail-risk hedging limits losses from an outsized market event. When markets go down, this tail hedge acts like insurance for a portfolio. And since its inception, investors have seen a +239% net return on capital, according to the report.

In the letter, Spitznagel described markets as “very much trapped in the mother of all global financial bubbles,” pointing to high valuations and the Federal Reserve’s emergency moves to blunt the worst effects of the coronavirus crisis.

Universa’s returns are even more impressive given the unprecedented volatility seen last month, as the COVID-19 pandemic roiled markets.In March, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) plummeted 26.2% at its lowest point, but recouped some of those losses to end the month off by 12.35%.

“Markets were priced for ‘perfection,’ and now, following even more of the greatest monetary stimulus in human history (much of it in the span of just the last few weeks), they’re still priced for ‘really good’—still very expensive,” the investor told clients.

“So this is far from over; the current pandemic is merely threatening to pop the bubble,” Spitznagel wrote, warning that officials may be “running out of ways to keep the bubble inflated.”

He added: “Make no mistake, it’s the systemic vulnerabilities created by this unprecedented central-bank-fueled bubble, and the crazy, naïve risk-taking and leverage that accompanies it, that makes this pandemic so potentially destructive to the financial markets and the economy.”

Oil prices turned negative at noon, giving back a more than 12% gain, as the Street awaited details on production cuts from OPEC and its allies

Market following the down-turn

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/oil-jumps-ahead-of-make-or-break-opec-meeting.html

Saudi Arabia and Russia were reportedly discussing cuts that could take a record 20 million barrels per day of global production offline, Reuters said, citing sources familiar with the matter, although others said the cuts would more likely be around 10 million barrels per day.

According to Reuters, OPEC+ would cut output by 12 million barrels per day, with an additional 5 million barrels per day cut by producers outside of the group. The deal would reportedly last for two years with the cuts implemented gradually, Reuters said.

Oil prices reversed course and turned negative as traders awaited confirmation of the cuts as well clarity on key details, including how the cuts would be divided among OPEC+, as well as the production numbers on which the cut would be based.



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Democrats block McConnell’s bid to add $250 billion in small business aid
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-updates-senate-blocks-small-business-loan-legislation.html

FAZ at historic this year low @24
and DOW is trying to break 50% Fib Line @23891

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UWM at resistance 34.43 again

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What's a good day for shorters!
18% gain for TZA today!
DOW +1600 gain (7%) yesterday, and opened with +937 today but closed at -34, P2P delta change is 2500 points in 2 days!
Major market indices are trying to break the 50% Fib Retrace lines but fail! Important resistance!
(2792 for S&P; 23891 for DJIA)
What a falling angel evening doji for all major indice is forming today!
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DOW opened with +1000
but close at -34, what's a good day for shorters!
Major market indices are trying to break the 50% Fib Retrace lines!
(2792 for S&P; 23891 for DJIA)

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Carnival's stock soars on heavy volume after Saudia Arabia sovereign fund discloses large stake

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/448a4383-7399-3457-9898-c8f53cdf1ce4/carnival-39-s-stock-soars-on.html

Shares of Carnival Corp. soared 18% on heavy volume Monday, after the Saudi Arabia-based sovereign wealth fund The Public Investment Fund disclosed that it has acquired a 43.5 million shares, or an 8.2% stake, in the cruise operator. The filing said the shares were acquired as of March 26. That would make the fund Carnival's third-largest shareholder, based on an analysis of FactSet data. The fund was not listed among the top 20 stake holders prior to the filing, according to FactSet. The stock's trading volume swelled to 85.1 million shares in midday trading, already more than the full-day average of 61.2 million shares. Carnival's stock has tumbled 80% year to date, and closed last Thursday at the lowest price since April 1993. Meanwhile, shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. have dropped 79% year to date and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. have plummeted 84%, while the S&P 500 has dropped 19%.

Fast Money AND Cheap Housing?

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?TREE,BILL,Z,CACC,WFC,C,TOL,LEN,PHM,KBH,DHI,HOV|B|D20|0



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Are Chips Cheap?

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?LRCX,MCHP,KLAC,DXC,IMMU,VIR,ZM,HPE,RYCEY,RTX,GE,BA,TSLA|B|D20|0



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TIME FOR SHOPPING YET?

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?W,PVH,KSS,JWN,GPS,ETSY,RH,USFD|B|D20|0


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Ships are floating again and have better sleep

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NCLH,CCL,RCL,ERI,MGM,MAR,ALGN,WYNN,H,HLT,AMC,CNK|B|D20|0


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Dow jumps 1,627 points or 7.7%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-6-221730148.html?.tsrc=fin-notif

Stocks extended gains Monday as investors geared up for another week of closely monitoring developments around the global coronavirus outbreak and policymakers’ responses to the pandemic.

Over the weekend, coronavirus cases rose in major centers around the world but at an at least temporarily slower pace than in recent weeks.


The state of New York, which leads the nation with about 130,000 positive cases, on Monday reported 599 new coronavirus deaths, or about level with the 594 reported on Sunday. But Governor Andrew Cuomo in a Monday press briefing reiterated that even if the pandemic in the state was beginning to plateau, it was “plateauing at a very high level, and there is tremendous stress on the health-care system,” he said.

Elsewhere, Italy reported the slowest rise of new deaths in two weeks on Sunday. France and Spain – two other European centers for the virus – also reported a deceleration in new deaths.

While the slowing increases in case counts serve as a positive development, many analysts remain cautious and have still not ruled out further volatility in the near-term.

“Until the virus shows a decline in its trajectory and rolls over, a semblance of normalcy will likely remain out of reach,” John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, wrote in a note Monday. “The ultimate extent of the damage to the economy and the corporate sector will be hard to determine in the near term and will likely vary greatly within segments of the economy and sectors of the markets.”

“For now the markets will likely remain hostage to news on how long it will take to ‘get back to business’ and ‘the good life,’” he added. “We’d expect markets to continue trading on a combination of fear, technical factors and wistful hope with fundamentals clouded by the uncertainty weaved by the insidious virus.”

Official government guidance around controlling the spread of the coronavirus continues to be dynamic in the U.S., with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday adding a recommendation for Americans to wear cloth face coverings when leaving their homes.

And U.S. leaders’ rhetoric around the outbreak is still dire, with many Americans in states across the country preparing to remain under stay-in-place orders for at least the coming weeks.

On Sunday, U.S. Surgeon General Vice Admiral Jerome Adams told Fox News on Sunday that this coming week “is going to be the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans’ lives, quite frankly,” adding that it will be “our Pearl Harbor moment.” He also noted in the interview, however, that Americans could “change the trajectory of this epidemic” by following social distancing guidelines.

And for equity markets, visibility as to the duration and extent of the outbreak would be a welcomed respite. Stocks ended last week lower as volatility returned to equity markets following the prior week’s advances, as rapidly deteriorating economic data began to reflect the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The March jobs report – which collected data just through about the 12th of the month – already showed U.S. employers cut 701,000 non-farm payrolls, before widespread social distancing measures had even gone into effect.

With this in mind, Thursday’s initial jobless claims report will again be a closely watched print, with consensus economists expecting to see 5 million new unemployment claims filed for the week ended April 4. The prior week, jobless claims skyrocketed to a record 6.648 million.

At least 7 CEOs from oil companies met with President Donald Trump FRIDAY

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/trump-says-well-work-this-out-and-get-our-energy-business-back-at-meeting-with-oil-ceos.html

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,OXY,DVN,PSX,ET,CLR,OIH,USO|B|D20|0

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President Donald Trump said that the U.S. will “get our energy business back,” as he met with oil executives from at least seven companies amid the ongoing collapse in oil prices.

“We’ll work this out and we’ll get our energy business back. I’m with you 1,000%. It’s a great business, it’s a very vital business,” he said. Trump added that he’s “looking very seriously” at an infrastructure package.

The meeting included CEOs from Exxon, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, Phillips 66, Energy Transfer Partners and Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped nearly 12% on Friday after OPEC said it would hold a virtual meeting on Monday to discuss oil policy, while Russian President Vladimir Putin said a production cut of 10 million barrels per day is possible if global players participate, according to a report from Reuters.

President Donald Trump said that the U.S. will “get our energy business back,” as he met with oil executives from at least seven companies amid the ongoing collapse in oil prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/trump-says-well-work-this-out-and-get-our-energy-business-back-at-meeting-with-oil-ceos.html

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?XOM,OXY,DVN,PSX,ET,CLR,OIH,USO|B|D20|0

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President Donald Trump said that the U.S. will “get our energy business back,” as he met with oil executives from at least seven companies amid the ongoing collapse in oil prices.

“We’ll work this out and we’ll get our energy business back. I’m with you 1,000%. It’s a great business, it’s a very vital business,” he said. Trump added that he’s “looking very seriously” at an infrastructure package.

The meeting included CEOs from Exxon, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, Phillips 66, Energy Transfer Partners and Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped nearly 12% on Friday after OPEC said it would hold a virtual meeting on Monday to discuss oil policy, while Russian President Vladimir Putin said a production cut of 10 million barrels per day is possible if global players participate, according to a report from Reuters.

Raytheon Technologies Debuts On The Dow As Rival GE Deepens Cuts

https://www.investors.com/news/raytheon-technologies-stock-debuts-dow-jones-industiral-average-ge-aviation-cuts/

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Raytheon Technologies (RTX), formerly known as United Technologies, debuted on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Friday after the closing of its massive merger.

United Technologies completed the separations of its Otis elevator and Carrier air-conditioning units early Friday, clearing the way for its merger with Raytheon Company.

The industrial giant and Raytheon agreed to merge in June 2019 in a $100 billion all-stock deal.

The new Raytheon Technologies stock is a formidable aerospace and defense pure play. With roughly $74 billion in net sales last year, it's overtake Boeing (BA) in aerospace/defense revenue as 737 Max planes remain grounded.

"The combined company expects to introduce breakthrough technologies at an accelerated pace across high-value areas such as hypersonics, directed energy, avionics and cybersecurity," Raytheon Technologies said in a statement. Greg Hayes, CEO of the former United Technologies, is chief of the new company.

Warren Buffett Dumps Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines As Coronavirus Pandemic Slams Industry
https://www.investors.com/news/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sells-delta-stock-southwest-stock-coronavirus/


Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) has sold off millions of shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) over the past few days, regulatory filings showed on Friday. That sent Delta stock, Southwest stock and other airline stocks lower after hours.

Berkshire Hathaway cut its stakes as airlines face a steep drop in travel demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. Nations have restricted travel, and passengers are cancelling flights. On Friday, the airlines were working to meet an initial application deadline for aid from the stimulus bill signed last week to cushion the economy against the pandemic.

The sales of Delta stock — nearly 13 million shares, for around $314 million — were dated Wednesday and Thursday, according to the filing. Berkshire sold off 2.3 million shares in Southwest on those days as well as on March 16, transactions that totaled out to about $74 million.

Berkshire Hathaway owned around 59 million shares of Delta following the sales. It owned 51.3 million shares of Southwest Airlines.

thanks, can I
buy something else?

Magical Fib Retrace Line

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Spill
ETF ERX with top holdings

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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ERX/holdings/
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_oilgasrefiningmarketing

Printing Giant Xerox (XRX) drops $30B bid to takeover HP (HPQ) amid coronavirus crisis

Xerox Holdings Corp. will officially end its bid takeover to acquire HP Inc., as the coronavirus outbreak continues. Yahoo Finance’s Dan Howley shares the latest developments.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/xerox-drops-30b-bid-takeover-180753855.html


https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=XRX&ty=c&p=d&b=1
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HPQ&ty=c&p=d&b=1


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Coronavirus is sparking the worst recession since WWII

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-is-sparking-worst-recession-since-wwii-stephen-roach-says.html

Economist Stephen Roach believes the country is sinking into an unprecedented recession.

Roach, who’s former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, warns the coronavirus is spiraling the United States into a downturn that’ll be difficult to exit.

“This is a sudden stop in the U.S. economy. The hope is we’ll get through this. But it’s at least two quarters of the sharpest declines we’ve seen since the end of World War II,” the Yale University senior fellow told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday.

Roach expects the coronavirus pandemic will eventually be resolved. However, he contends a spontaneous regeneration of animal spirits is not in the cards.

‘Recovery is going to be extremely tentative’
“This is not your garden variety business cycle where a sharp downturn is followed by an equally sharp snapback,” he said. “We can restart production, but can we really restart consumption with people still scared and unwilling to go out and socialize and spend? So, I think the recovery is going to be extremely tentative.”

According to Roach, a drop-off in consumption will be exacerbated by spiking unemployment.

“The longer that the damage is done to small and medium-sized businesses, the harder they’re going to find it to re-create their old business models and rehire in a way you would expect them to do in a normal business cycle recession,” he added.

Roach, who was in China during the deadly 2003 SARS epidemic, told “Trading Nation” in late January that investors should be vigilant and warned the coronavirus outbreak could cause a global economic shock. At that point, there were about 4,500 confirmed cases in China and 106 deaths from the infection.

There are now more than 750,000 coronavirus cases globally. In the U.S., there are more than 150,000 infections. The death toll grows every day.

“China clearly did draconian quarantine containments and restrictions on travel,” Roach said. “The tracking data that I see in terms of consumption still remains sharply depressed. So, even under the Chinese template, the recovery is still a very iffy one.”

Bankers, another shoe to drop
ETF FAS with top 10 holdings

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Banker Dreams
ETF FAS with top 10 holdings

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Airliners Hard Landing
ETF JETS with top 10 holdings
and another ETF IYT
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Grounding airlines
ETF JETS with top 10 holdings
and another ETF IYT
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time to take profit!

Raytheon and United Technologies Obtain All Regulatory Approvals to Close Merger of Equals

Raytheon Technologies stock will trade on the NYSE under ticker symbol "RTX"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/raytheon-united-technologies-obtain-regulatory-100000647.html

Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) and United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX) announced that they have received the necessary regulatory approvals for their all-stock merger of equals and expect to close the merger prior to the opening of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Friday, April 3, 2020, the distribution date for United Technologies' spin-offs of Carrier and Otis.

Upon the closing of the merger, United Technologies will be renamed Raytheon Technologies Corporation, and its common stock will trade on the NYSE under the ticker symbol "RTX." The last full day of trading in the shares of Raytheon Company is expected to be Thursday, April 2, 2020, and upon the closing of the merger on Friday, April 3, 2020, each share of Raytheon Company common stock will be converted into the right to receive 2.3348 Raytheon Technologies shares. The first day of trading for Raytheon Technologies shares is expected to be Friday, April 3, 2020.

The regulatory process requires the divestitures of Raytheon's military airborne radios business and United Technologies' military Global Positioning System (GPS) and Space Optical Systems businesses, which are all expected to be completed following the merger.

Immediately prior to the closing of the merger, United Technologies will effect the separations of its Otis and Carrier businesses into separate publicly-traded companies. Carrier will trade under the ticker symbol "CARR" on the NYSE and Otis will trade under the ticker symbol "OTIS" on the NYSE. United Technologies shareowners will receive 0.5 of a share of Otis and 1 share of Carrier for each share of United Technologies common stock held as of 5:00 p.m. EDT on March 19, 2020, the record date for the distributions.

About Raytheon
Raytheon Company is a technology and innovation leader specializing in defense, civil government and cybersecurity solutions. With a history of innovation, Raytheon provides state-of-the-art electronics, mission systems integration, C5I® products and services, sensing, effects and mission support for customers in more than 80 countries. Raytheon is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

About United Technologies
United Technologies Corp., based in Farmington, Connecticut, provides high technology products and services to the building and aerospace industries. By combining a passion for science with precision engineering, the company is creating smart, sustainable solutions the world needs.
visit website at www.utc.com or on Twitter @UTC.

Global Economic Fallout Grows as Coronavirus Cases Pass 600,000

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/stock-news/82107344/global-economic-fallout-grows-as-coronavirus-cases


Concerns about the financial toll of the coronavirus pandemic continued to grow as the number of infections globally topped 600,000 Saturday, with the International Monetary Fund warning of an economic and financial crisis exceeding that of a decade ago.

Overlapping travel bans and lockdowns have hammered businesses and led to millions of job losses, punctuated by a spike in U.S. unemployment claims to more than three million this week and a warning of a deep recession this year in trade bellwether Singapore.

"It is now clear that we have entered a recession as bad or worse than in 2009," Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, said Friday. Rising bankruptcies and layoffs could undermine any recovery and do long-lasting damage to the world economy, she said.

The risks have added urgency for countries around the world to extend relief packages to ease financial distress.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a $2 trillion stimulus plan, the largest economic relief package in history.

With the pneumonia-causing virus spreading across the U.S. and Europe, after it was first detected in central China three months ago, governments around the world have ramped up efforts to limit people's movement and began imposing wide-ranging closures on businesses, restaurants and schools domestically in recent weeks.

Increasingly strict travel bans set up by large countries including the U.S. and China have put a dent in global commerce, complicating efforts to reignite growth.

France and Belgium on Friday extended their national lockdowns by two weeks, until mid-April. French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe said experts advising the government recommended the lockdown remain for at least six weeks. Russia on Friday suspended all passenger flights to and from the country.

The U.S. added more than 15,000 cases of the Covid-19 disease, pushing the total past 104,000 on Saturday, with a surge of cases in New York and increased testing. The growth outstripped that of Italy and China, the countries with the second and third most infections, where confirmed cases stayed around 86,000 and 81,000 respectively, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

As a result, the number of confirmed infections globally has more than doubled over the past week to more than 600,000. The death toll from the pathogen rose to more than 28,000 on Saturday, with roughly one-third of the fatalities in Italy, data from Johns Hopkins showed.

Italy's death toll from the virus on Friday rose by 919 to 9,134, the highest daily tally on record. Total infections rose to 86,498, a 7% increase from the previous day.

The IMF warned that low-income countries will be hit particularly hard given a combination of a health crisis, sudden reversal of capital flows and in some cases a plunge in commodity prices. In Russia, where oil exports account for roughly one-third of government revenue, the ruble has fallen to its lowest level in four years. The IMF estimated that at least $2.5 trillion is needed to contain economic contraction for emerging markets.

The Chinese government is also wrestling with the economic blow from the SARS-like virus, first from a prolonged halt in domestic business activities and now from weaker consumer sentiment and shrinking export demand as the coronavirus engulfs Europe and the U.S.

On Friday, the country's top decision-making body said the government plans to boost spending by increasing its fiscal deficit this year, as well as speed up issuance of Treasury bonds and so-called local government special-purpose bonds to support funding of infrastructure projects, as part of the stimulus measures to curtail economic impact from the pandemic.

"The fiscal policy needs to be more proactive, and the prudent monetary policy needs to be more flexible," said a statement from Friday's meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee, chaired by President Xi Jinping. The government also called for a gradual reopening of shopping malls and markets to boost consumer spending.

Lu Ting, an economist with Nomura, estimated that, over the second and possibly third quarters, China's exports could contract by a total of 30% from a year earlier, wiping out 18 million jobs, or about a third of those tied to trade. To counter the negative impact from the outbreak, Beijing is likely to cut its benchmark deposit rate as well as raise the fiscal deficit target to 3.5% of GDP, up from 2.8% in 2019, he wrote in a research note on Saturday.

China's National Health Commission reported 54 new infections Friday, saying all were imported from abroad, bringing the total to 81,394.

Other countries continue to tighten rules on social distancing. Iran this week closed shopping centers and banned road travel between cities, pledging to fine and impound the cars of offenders. Iranian officials have warned the population to brace for a second wave of infections. Afghanistan on Friday expanded restrictions by announcing a three-week lockdown on its capital, Kabul. Lebanon, which extended its nationwide lockdown until April 12, on Friday imposed a nighttime curfew.

In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan introduced further travel restrictions this weekend to combat the spread of the virus, which has infected 5,698 people and killed 92 in the country, according to a tally by national health authorities. Intercity bus and air traffic will be reduced to a minimum while all international flights will be suspended.

Hong Kong banned public gatherings of four or more people beginning midnight Sunday, with those violating the rules facing fines of more than $3,000 and six months in jail. Singapore said it would fine people who violate its social distancing rules up to about $7,000.

Australia said it would quarantine citizens returning from overseas in hotels for 14 days beginning midnight Saturday.

Write to Stella Yifan Xie at stella.xie@wsj.com

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ERX Retracted today



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Dollar nose Dive along with Oil Price