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Soft landing ??????
Barney Frank blames crypto panic for his bank’s collapse. Elizabeth Warren blames Trump.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/13/barney-frank-signature-bank-collapse-warren-trump-00086765
Frank, who chaired the House Financial Services Committee in the wake of the global financial crisis and wrote sweeping new rules enacted in 2010, most recently served on the board of New York’s Signature Bank, which regulators shut down Sunday.
Yes...another Groundhog Day.....rinse and repeat.
"No taxpayer money will be used"......LOL of course
No investors will be shielded..."that's how capitalism works".....selective capitalism works.
Now the political advertisement..........
Gee...I feel much more confident now... ;)
Wow...everyone has a helicopter...LOL...when in doubt; open the spout.
Tesla Price Cuts Trigger Desperate Fight For Survival In China's EV Market
https://www.investors.com/news/china-ev-price-war-tesla-triggers-brutal-battle-as-growth-plans-face-sales-reality/
Well written article...
Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales Increased 10% In January 2023
https://insideevs.com/news/656290/global-plugin-car-sales-january2023/
Is the "slow down" in EV sales temporary?
tick...tick...tick....can anyone say for sure what's behind door #3 ? Doesn't give one a good feeling about markets.
Bloomberg headline: America’s $52 Billion Plan to Make Chips at Home Faces a Labor Shortage
No kidding, really? Who would've known?
Powell's testimony.....politics...politics...politics. Didn't really learn anything of value.
South America looks at creating “lithium OPEC”
https://www.mining.com/south-america-looks-at-creating-lithium-opec/?utm_source=Daily_Digest&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MNG-DIGESTS&utm_content=south-america-looks-at-creating-lithium-opec
Why not?
Posco pushes for lithium clay extraction project in US
https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230214000676
Probably CATL's position sale, plus profit taking, ex-dividend selling, Barring a complete reversion in Lithium prices back to 2021 the future looks very good for Pilbara.
Hope springs eternal in the Lithium space....the momentum investors in Sigma Lithium aren't taking Musk on his word (comments) that he's not interested in miners, he is interested in down stream processors. Even though SGML is almost ready to begin mining, their phase one production is only 220,000 dmt per annum. With a MC of $3.63B (yahoo finance) appears rich compared to the going concern majors. But who knows, maybe Musk does want a miner ????
China leads US in global competition for key emerging technology, study says
https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-leads-us-global-competition-key-emerging-technology-study-says-2023-03-02/
Falling behind.....that's a serious problem.
Pricing power is/has been (tapering? maybe) widespread in the economy, appears that inflation is alive and well. Cliffs isn't an outlier. So how are things shaping up?
1) Unit labor cost rising
2) Productivity falling
3) Supply chain problems in some industries persist.
4) Pricing power seems stubborn in both manufacturing and service sectors. No slowdown in sight.
So what's the FED to do? Probably opt for .50% hike in the next meeting to show the world they mean business. What could possibly go wrong? One thing for sure that I believe could go wrong and probably will is the ruling from the SJC that the Biden student loan forgiveness plan is unconstitutional. I'm sure all those individuals who haven't made a payment on their debt in years have been dutifully squirreling away $'s so they have a savings cushion to start paying back their loans without dramatically curtailing spending in other areas. Baby Black Swan....maybe? If the ruling does go against Biden I think we have a problem in the equity markets and a bonanza in Treasuries. Recession.....probably a significant recession. But on the bright side; it probably will take care of the inflation issue.....
I have no idea what the month $'s would be redirected from discretionary purchases, to debt repayment, but I'm assuming it's huge something like 40,000,000 X $300 (approx.)
Lithium Americas starts construction at Thacker Pass in Nevada
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-americas-starts-construction-thacker-135330811.html
Musk tamps down speculation that Tesla will mine lithium
https://www.mining.com/web/musk-tamps-down-speculation-that-tesla-will-mine-lithium/
The “limiting factor” is refining lithium, not actually finding it, as no country has a monopoly on deposits, Musk said Wednesday during the electric vehicle giant’s investor day.
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Tesla has broken ground on a proposed lithium refinery in Corpus Christi, Texas, and aims to start output within a year, said Drew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, at the event. The EV giant wants to process lithium concentrates into battery-grade lithium chemicals at the Texas refinery.
ECB confronts a cold reality: companies are cashing in on inflation
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-confronts-cold-reality-companies-060701742.html
Imagine that.........
An intriguing opportunity? Both Jindalee and American Battery announced world class deposits of Lithium recently. Jindalee is working with Posco to determine the best method of extracting lithium at their site. American Battery claims to have determined the best method to recover lithium from their site. Both companies claim reserves larger than LAC's Thacker Pass. It's very early in the process but assuming one or both are eventually permitted the prospects are impressive. In the USA permitting is always a big "if". Just my opinion, American Battery may have a slight edge in the race to monetize the find. Currently I have no position in ABML , I do have an opening position in Jindalee, based on the MOU with Posco.
Yes...I believe the Mercedes system has a more robust and complete sensor suite that probably better defines the environment for the software to act upon. Musk pooh-pooed Lidar as unnecessary, but undoubtedly it adds clarity that cameras cannot.
EV market changing rapidly? Hyundai Reveals New EV Price, Rolls Out Its First US-Made Cars
https://www.thestreet.com/electric-vehicles/hyundai-rolls-first-ev-off-us-assembly-line
From Tesla only to an ever increasing crowded market.
Mercedes opens sales of Level 3 self-driving system on S-Class, EQS
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/mercedes-opens-sales-level-3-self-driving-system-s-class-eqs
Since this level 3 is constrained, not sure it's a huge leap beyond Tesla FSD, but it does affirm that other car manufacturers have as capable systems. I don't think anyone can claim an advantage. FSD is still considered level 2.
The Build-Nothing Country
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-build-nothing-country
Sad but true.....in many respects. Particularly applicable to building the infrastructure necessary to supply the minerals necessary for the new energy economy.
This is such an important point that it bears repeating. Money is not physical stuff. Just because you earmark $5 billion for a subway or $2 billion for a solar farm in some Excel spreadsheet somewhere doesn’t mean a physical train or power plant has actually been created. If permitting holds up the process for years, then you still haven’t built a damn thing. And if eventually construction does begin, but the cost balloons to absurd levels, that means that a pitifully inadequate amount of actual physical transit, or housing, or solar will be created, despite that huge flood of dollar signs in your spreadsheet
Indeed....from insanely expensive (Lithium) to just expensive. Profitability for a company like Pilbara will fall slightly, but added volume and efficiency will help keep profits high. Also, many miners are adding downstream processing at greater profit margins. Marginal producers will mothball production, and capital intensive mine development will be curtailed. Just read ALB's comment on pricing.....the pendulum will swing back. Many of the high flying miners share prices have already adjusted...probably a good entry point on many.
Read my next post to see why the USA will probably fall far behind Australia, Korea, Canada in the race to supply the minerals necessary for the new energy world.
Crown the new king of lithium reserves in the USA
Jindalee Resources is sitting on the United States' biggest lithium deposit
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jindalee-resources-sitting-united-states-200000843.html
Not worth much if you can't get the permits to mine. Environmentalists are already lining up to oppose the mine. So what's new? Better to stick with Australian and Canadian located mines.
Pilbara sitting in the proverbial catbird seat.....
Of my many individual Lithium related miner holdings Pilbara has the most upside here are the reasons.
1) High quality spodumene resource with a minimum 26 year mine life at 580,000 tpa offtake per year. Assumes mine resources aren't increased as mine site exploration continues. Undoubtedly more resource will be found.
2) Annual production of 600,000+ tpa sold at price per dmt that exceeds 2022 price.
3) Starting 2024 the JV with POSCO ramps up. Under the agreement Pilbara supplies up to 358,000 tpa spodumene at prevailing price for 20 years. Additionally they own 18% of the JV with option to increase that to 30% (which no doubt they will exercise). So basically, they're guaranteed that 1/2 their production is sold at prevailing market price starting next year, and they will benefit (profit) futher from the JV sales
4) Possible expansion to 1M tpa (which I believe they will do), expanding their sales to $5.0 billion AUD on Spodumene plus sales from POSCO JV. If the profit margins can be maintained the gross profit on spodumene sales would be $4,233,944,000.00 AUD.
5) Sovereign risk is negligible due to their domicile in Australia a mining nation with a long history of supporting miners and free markets. Unlike their competitors that have operations in Africa, Mexico, and Latin America that are subject to less stable political situations and exposed to more state control and excessive taxation. Competitive advantage Pilbara.
It is difficult to see how Pilbara wouldn't be one of the more profitable and stable Lithium miners in the world if demand continues as expected.
Now how to get this type of practice applied across the educational institutions
It is the perfect business model, from the institutions perspective, virtually zero financial risk. I'm envious......
We hold private sector companies accountable for their mediocrity, or failures, through financial compensation or shunning their product or service. Perhaps the schools should have to underwrite student loans with the risk of default held by those institutions. That would be a real incentive to perform and provide a cost effective education.
Sorry...here it is The housing shortage is the root of all of America's problems
https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-inequality-housing-shortage-causes-2023-1
Tesla, GM among carmakers flocking to mining events amid battery metals scramble
https://www.mining.com/web/tesla-gm-among-carmakers-flocking-to-mining-events-amid-battery-metals-scramble/
It’s unusual for massive end-users of raw commodities, like auto manufacturers, machinery producers or aerospace companies, to attend large mining conferences. But the huge demand for raw materials to support the electrification of those industries is changing that.
Bahar said a number of automakers are attending, including officials in procurement or corporate development, and are focused on securing supply and investing.
No demand destruction here........
“They’re there as investors,” he said. “They want to meet with companies, and the companies want to meet with investors.”
How well did "transitory" inflation go? All the experts were sure they understood that situation. The assumption is raise rates until you curtail demand and your problems are solved. Question; what is enough destroyed demand? We have businesses that can't find qualified workers today. Hospitals and retirement homes can't find enough qualified workers to function, is healthcare and elder care demand fungible? Is food demand fungible? Food supplies for certain items are at record lows, and food prices and inflation remain high and are predicted to continue to rise. I doubt raising interest rates will raise supply of food stocks. We already have a housing supply shortage, and it's growing as demand outstrips supply. Will rising interest rates increase the stock of new houses? Air fares, hotel rooms, and restaurant prices have all increased dramatically and demand for travel is still strong. I suppose the leisure industries may eventually be affected by rising rates, but so far people seem willing to pay more to travel. We assume those supply chain issues for real goods are behind us. But I wonder, are they? China's population is aging they have their own workforce issues, and we don't have enough workers to fill existing job openings, yet were told there will be a renaissance in US manufacturing, build back better. Where will the workforce, we apparently don't have today, come from to fill these factories? We are constantly told that at least wages are growing, ok, but what about the population that isn't working, how is inflation being dealt with by them?
And we have the CBO coming out with their analysis of our future, not pretty, and inflationary on it's face. Is anyone confident that the FED has perfect clarity of the outcome of their policy?
I guess we will eventually find out....oh I hope all those people and families who are losing their COVID supplemental food assistance at the end of this month have a plan "B" in place to cover the lost benefit, just one unknown to account for.
True....but the politically expedient thing to do is pander to your voting block and we know how politicians make decisions.
Ooops....looks like that "transitory" inflation has a lot of staying power. Just a feeling, but I think the problems with this economy go well beyond the FED's standard tool box fix. I'm still squarely in the camp that the issues confronting the economy are more substantial and not well understood. I keep hearing prognosticators saying the economy is fine, while simultaneously reading articles about how difficult it is for many US citizens to cope financially. Is there a cliff on the road ahead or a gentle slope? If inflation continues unabated and the FED ratchets up their remedy (rate hikes) I'm going with cliff.
Yes...intriguing potential.
Lithium Producers Defy Mining Sector Slump With Surging Profits
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-producers-defy-mining-sector-012645433.html
Pilbara Minerals Ltd., one of the nation’s top producers, and Allkem Ltd. both said net income jumped more than 10-fold in the second half of 2022 from a year earlier. Price gains in the period helped them to offset the inflationary pressures and tight labor market that saw mining giants Rio Tinto Group and BHP Group Ltd. report sharp drops in profit earlier this week.
Interesting concept....
Copper catalyst may be essential for production of solar fuels from sunlight, water, CO2
https://www.mining.com/copper-catalyst-may-be-essential-for-production-of-solar-fuels-from-sunlight-water-co2/
Allkem presentation
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02635864-2A1433057?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
well positioned for growth....well capitalized.
Won’t this always be true?