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wbmw,
Here is what I came up with as far as distribution of parts. In short, there is a lot of downbinning going on with SC A64s and Semprons, less so on X2.
The first column is the price of 1 unit box unit from NewEgg.com. Second column is 75% of that, which is what AMD may actually get, assuming distribution costs, shipping costs, NewEgg Profit, cost of returns etc.
My guess is that OEM are buying tray parts for about 75% of the list outright. On single boxed parts sold through distribution and resellers, there is about that much overhead.
Third column is precentage within sub-group
Sempron
2500 68 51 20% 10
2600 69 52 20% 10
2800 73 55 30% 16
3000 84 63 15% 9
3100 96 72 10% 7
3300 109 82 3% 2
3400 118 89 2% 2
100% 58
Athlon 64
3000 116 87 25% 22
3200 130 98 30% 29
3500 201 151 35% 53
3700 219 164 2% 3
3800 284 213 6% 13
4000 336 252 2% 5
100% 125
Athlon 64 X2
3800 295 221 63% 139
4200 355 266 25% 67
4400 452 339 2% 7
4600 547 410 5% 21
4800 630 473 5% 24
100% 257
Athlon 64 FX
FX55 810 608 20% 122
FX57 811 608 70% 426
FX60 1011 758 10% 76
100% 623
Sempron 60.0% 58 34.71
Athlon 64 32.0% 125 39.96
X2 5.0% 257 12.84
FX 0.5% 623 3.12
Opteron 2.5% 300 7.50
100.0% 98.12
wbmw,
Would you mind running your version of the product mix? I'd like to see how close you can get to the ~$90 ASP datapoint that we know for a fact, just by using AMD's official price list.
I will get back to you no that. But right off the bat, I think TWY estimated, I think, $92 or so for Q4, and IIRC, AMD commented on ASP increase to be about 7% (again, going on memory), so I would think that the ASP is in mid 90s, possibly between above $95 (but still below $100).
Joe
mas,
Good catch, I must have missed that.
Joe
mas,
Fab 36 is currently producing Semprons and single-core A64s not X2s and Opterons.
My guess is that more likely than not, Fab 36 is producing Ref F parts, single and dual. I think X2 Turions will be there in the mix, since those are the first to be launched.
Joe
wbmw,
That doesn't seem to coincide with the fact that nearly every single design out there, both in terms of retail, OEM, 3rd/4th tier, channel market, etc, seems to come with plenty of availability of Athlon based processors. Your 16% volume characterization is like from some other kind of alternate reality.
I think you may be closer to reality (than mas) on the product line breakdown, but I think you may be a bit high on pricing. I haven't run it through the spreadsheet, but I think you are probably some $5 to $10 too high on Sempron, and maybe even $30 too high on A64. There are a lot of 3000, 3200 and 3500, relatively few 3700 to 4000 processors.
Joe
chipguy,
ROFL. Poor little AMD. Perhaps the street is starting to
realize AMD's time in the sun is almost over
Maybe you can give a similar analysis of what the street thinks about INTC, sitting at 92 week low (or is it 104 week).
Joe
rlweitz,
1. The initial WPW at FAB36?
2. When FAB36 production will start hitting the street?
3. The projected FAB36 ramp rate.
I have been posting on this subject (mostly on SI). My big question was if AMD was going to produce any Rev E chips in Fab 36, or if it will be strictly Rev F.
The answer I am leaning to now is that Fab 36 is producing only Rev F chips, and they appear to be slightly delayed. There were some reports maybe 6 to 9 months ago about DDR2 parts being available in 2nd half of Q1, which was later changed to Q2. There was also a plan to start production shipments from Fab 36, and start depreciation in Q1. It didn't happen.
Add 2 + 2 together.
As of now, there is nothing to lose on the ramp rate. AMD says yields are good, so if they have production worthy Rev F, Fab 36 is only Rev F capable, and the wafer starts don't take from Fab 30 wafer starts, and there is no reason not to build some inventories, since they are relatively low now (and of course sell what they can).
Joe
Spansion Reports First Quarter 2006 Results
Wednesday April 12, 4:05 pm ET
Spansion Records 30% Year over Year Net Sales Increase
SUNNYVALE, Calif., April 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Spansion Inc. (Nasdaq: SPSN - News), the world's largest pure-play provider of Flash memory solutions, today announced first quarter 2006 results. For the quarter ended March 26, 2006, the company reported net sales of $562 million, an increase of 30 percent over net sales of $433 million for the first quarter of 2005, reflecting gains in market share since the first quarter of 2005. The company estimates that 84 million handsets shipped during the first quarter of 2006 were powered by Spansion(TM) Flash memory compared with 54 million units in the first quarter of 2005.
The increased acceptance of MirrorBit(TM) technology contributed to the fourth consecutive quarter of improved gross margin, rising to 19 percent in the first quarter of 2006 compared with a zero percent gross margin in the same period of 2005. Sales of MirrorBit(TM) Flash memory increased to 35 percent of net sales for the first quarter of 2006 as compared to 14 percent of net sales in the year-ago period.
Net loss for the first quarter of 2006 was $52 million, or $0.40 per share, compared to a net loss of $109 million, or $1.50 per share in the first quarter of 2005. For comparison purposes, results for the first quarter of 2006 include pre-tax stock-based compensation charges totaling approximately $8 million resulting from the adoption of SFAS 123R, "Accounting for Stock-Based Compensation." The company's results for the first quarter of 2005 did not have a comparable charge.
"With the successful deployment of our MirrorBit technology into both the high-end cellular phone and high-density embedded market segments, we improved financially year over year and achieved another sequential quarter of gross margin improvement," said Bertrand Cambou, president and chief executive officer of Spansion. "The deployment of MirrorBit technology is expanding due to strong customer acceptance of our latest Flash solutions. Looking forward, we are well positioned to capitalize on our product and technology leadership and intensely focused on operational efficiency and management of our capital."
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER
-- BenQ/Siemens, Cisco, Lenovo and Samsung all awarded the company their best supplier awards for 2005 in the first quarter, demonstrating our continued progress in serving our customers.
-- QUALCOMM, the leading developer and innovator in CDMA, has agreed to pre-validate MirrorBit(TM) NOR and ORNAND(TM) memory solutions. Through the QUALCOMM collaboration, Spansion will offer customers compatible memory solutions that help streamline the development process for handset designers.
-- Spansion has also licensed the ARM7TDMI-S(TM) processor and the SecurCore(TM) SC100(TM) processor from ARM. Spansion plans to integrate the ARM® processor with its MirrorBit(TM) Flash memory on a single die, expanding its Logic-on-Flash solutions for secure, high-performance wireless applications.
-- Spansion announced plans for its MirrorBit(TM) HD-SIM solution to enable 1,000 times the storage capacity for mobile content distribution and management. This new class of secure, high-capacity SIM-card chips combines MirrorBit(TM) ORNAND(TM) products at 90nm (nanometers) with M-Systems' cryptography, logic and Flash file-system technology
CURRENT OUTLOOK
Spansion's outlook statements for the second quarter of 2006 are based on current expectations. The following statements are forward looking, and actual results could differ materially depending on market conditions and other factors, including those set forth in the Cautionary Statement below.
-- Spansion expects revenue to be in the range of $590-$620 million.
-- Spansion expects sales of MirrorBit technology-based products, as a percentage of total net sales, to increase.
-- The strength of the industry, combined with the traction of MirrorBit technology, positions the company well to reach profitability in the second half of 2006.
Investor Conference Call
Spansion will host a conference call today, April 12, 2006, at 1:30 p.m. PT/ 4:30 p.m. ET to discuss the quarterly results. A live audio-only web cast of the call will be made available in the Investor Relations section of the company's web site at www.spansion.com. A replay of the call will be made available for seven days following the call by dialing (888) 203-1112 using the passcode 6014071 and will also be accessible on the company's investor relations web site at www.spansion.com.
Cautionary Statement
This release contains forward-looking statements that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future deployment of MirrorBit technology, the company's ability to capitalize on its product and technology leadership and its operational efficiency. Investors are cautioned that the forward- looking statements in this release involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the company's current expectations. Risks that the company considers to be the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements include the possibility that demand for the company's Flash memory products will be lower than currently expected; that the company will lose rights to key intellectual property arrangements and be subject to intellectual property infringement claims; that customer acceptance of MirrorBit technology will not continue to increase; that OEMs will increasingly choose NAND-based Flash memory products over NOR- and MirrorBit ORNAND architecture-based Flash memory products for their applications; that there will be a lack of customer acceptance of MirrorBit ORNAND architecture- based Flash memory products; that the company will lose one or more significant customers; that the company will be adversely affected by its substantial indebtedness; that the company will not be able to timely and cost-effectively design and implement an enterprise-wide information system; that the company will not be able to raise sufficient capital to enable it to establish leading-edge capacity to meet product demand and maintain market share; that the company will not be able to reduce expenses; that the company will not achieve its current product and technology introduction or implementation schedules; that the company will not be able to meet customer demand during cyclical industry or economic downturns; that competitors will introduce new memory technologies that render the company's Flash memory products uncompetitive or obsolete; and that the company's book-to-bill ratio will not be an accurate indicator of future sales. The company urges investors to review in detail the risks and uncertainties in the company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 25, 2005.
About Spansion
Spansion is the world's largest pure-play provider of Flash memory solutions, dedicated to enabling, storing and protecting digital content in the wireless, automotive, networking and consumer electronics markets. Spansion, previously a joint venture of AMD and Fujitsu, is the largest company in the world dedicated exclusively to developing, designing, and manufacturing Flash memory products and systems. For more information, visit www.spansion.com.
NOTE: Spansion, the Spansion logo, MirrorBit, ORNAND, and combinations thereof, are trademarks of Spansion LLC. Other names used are for informational purposes only and may be trademarks of their respective owners.
Spansion Inc.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(In thousands, except per share amounts)
Quarter Ended
Mar. 26, Dec. 25, Mar. 27,
2006 2005 2005
(Unaudited) (Unaudited) (Unaudited)
Net sales $561,929 $591,596 $433,189
Cost of sales 452,973 497,459 436,686
Gross profit 108,956 94,137 (3,497)
Other expenses:
Research and development 84,573 75,749 71,379
Marketing, general and
administrative 62,421 55,127 36,099
Operating loss (38,038) (36,739) (110,975)
Interest and other income, net 5,979 677 1,285
Interest expense (18,794) (11,458) (11,135)
Loss before income taxes (50,853) (47,520) (120,825)
Provision (benefit) for
income taxes 1,024 8 (11,983)
Net loss $(51,877) $(47,528) $(108,842)
Net loss per common share
Basic and diluted $(0.40) $(0.63) $(1.50)
Shares used in per share calculation
-Basic and diluted 128,146 75,604 72,549
Spansion Inc.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(In thousands)
Mar. 26, Dec. 25,
2006 2005*
Assets (Unaudited)
Current assets:
Cash, cash equivalents and
short-term investments $449,917 $725,816
Accounts receivable, net 411,532 418,642
Inventories 476,470 460,143
Deferred income taxes 15,949 34,452
Prepaid expenses and other
current assets 42,434 33,789
Total current assets 1,396,302 1,672,842
Property, plant and equipment, net 1,581,353 1,587,763
Deferred income taxes 7,923 7,128
Other assets 33,562 34,232
Total Assets $3,019,140 $3,301,965
Liabilities and Members'
Capital/Stockholders' Equity
Current liabilities:
Note payable to banks under
revolving loans $42,551 $43,020
Accounts payable and accrued
liabilities 364,578 460,892
Accrued compensation and benefits 60,383 51,534
Income taxes payable 8,609 13,058
Deferred income on shipments to
distributors 26,790 31,901
Current portion of long-term debt
and capital lease obligations 116,714 190,535
Total current liabilities 619,625 790,940
Deferred income taxes 11,111 29,498
Long-term debt and capital lease
obligations 487,405 526,058
Other long-term liabilities 26,013 33,492
Members' capital/stockholders' equity 1,874,986 1,921,977
Total liabilities and members'
capital/stockholders' equity $3,019,140 $3,301,965
*Derived from the December 25, 2005 audited financial statements of
Spansion Inc.
mmoy,
Intel making some fresh 2-year lows this afternoon. My low print is $19.10. GM rebounded hard after falling to $19.04. I guess INTC supporters should be buying this dip.
I think they can get a better price if they are patient...
Joe
wbmw,
I believe the new keyword is "fails to impress."
Let's see (in the earnings releases) which one is closer to reality:
- your prediction of Intel taking half of AMD mobile share when Yonah is released
- or "Yonah fails to impress"
Joe
PS: For the record, I am impressed with Yonah as a processor, but your predictions of Yonah impact in the market place hae been naive.
Tenchu,
A price war? Though it doesn't sound like Intel is willing to "cannibalize" server profit margins just to win short-term marketshare against Opteron. More likely is that Intel will just take the punches in Q2, then come back swinging once Woodcrest is out.
Price war worked better at the last low point of Intel (launch after P3, during the launch of Willamette). AMD was in one segment - desktop retail, and targetted price cuts by Intel did a lot of damage to AMD, with limited damage to Intel.
It is more difficult now, because AMD is all over the place. Pric war would end up hurting Intel a lot this time.
IMO, Intel does not have the strategy (regarding pricing) formulated yet. I think they have their finger up, waiting which way the winds will blow in the next 2 weeks, when the results are announced.
If there is a big uproar about AMD gaining share, Intel will (reluctantly) be very aggressive with prices, resulting in a very bad Q2.
OTOH, if the uproar over Q1 is limited, Intel will just go with the flow, resulting in some further share loss in Q2 (with the revenue loss is less than under a price war scenario). Then, in Q2 CC, Intel will come out swinging (in their guidance for Q3, H2 and beyond.
Joe
Tenchu,
Kind of risky even in that timeframe, unless AMD smells like a rose once again in July and uses that "credibility" to promise the world.
What do you think can prevent AMD from looking like a rose in July (when Q2 numbers are reported)?
And, btw, what I see for Intel in my time frame (1 to 2 quarters, or more precisely, 1 to 2 quarterly results) is just not a happy time to be in Intel stock.
Maybe I will move some of my AMD profits into Intel stock close to the end of this period, if it looks like AMD has reached a short term peak, and Intel has reached a short term bottom.
Joe
chipguy,
Six years ago MDR explained at length
why it chose to use SPEC CPU base instead of peak
And SPEC organization says it is the peak number...
Joe
mmoy,
Why not just use Microsoft's compiler? I think that just about everyone would agree that they're about as neutral as you can get.
Interesting thing is that AMD entry now no longer depends on Intel compiler. Pathscale compiler now exceeds Intel results, and does so in 64 bit (as opposed to best Intel compiler result being in 32bit).
BTW, I like your idea of Microsoft compiler, which most resembles real live in PC applications.
Joe
chipguy,
With a boatload of compiler command line option stupid tricks. On SPECint_base2k it gets 1821.
Sour grapes?
Joe
NaS,
How is http://www.spec.org/osg/cpu2000/results/res2006q2/cpu2000-20060320-05795.html more signifiganct than http://www.spec.org/osg/cpu2000/results/res2005q2/cpu2000-20050610-04216.html for example?
Surpassing a barrier that is a round number is something round is considered a bigger achievement than just any other record. See 4 minute mile...
Joe
snowrider,
I'm curious, what are your reasons for investing in AMD at this point in time. What are you expectig AMD to do in the FUTURE to maintain and/or grow their current stock price? This is what you should be focused on.
My outlook for a stock is always 1 to 2 quarters into the future.
Joe
Have fun riding the slopes down...
Dispensing advice while your stock is at 52 week low?
Priceless...
AMD breaks 2000 SpecInt:
http://www.spec.org/osg/cpu2000/results/res2006q2/cpu2000-20060320-05795.html
morrowinder,
Jhalada: AMD down to 33...32...31...30..wheres the bottom. Hope you sold at 40
No. I bought some at 34 and change a couple of weeks ago.
You?
wbmw,
I know this, but while some guys get very excited about new AMD mini steppings, they rarely offer huge performance gains. More like small power savings or +1 performance bins, not >20% performance boosts that would allow a rev F part to compete with Conroe.
Agreed.
I don't expect 20% gain from one functional stepping to another (well, I expect nearly no performance change, and maybe only a +1 bin or power savings, as you pointed out), but there appears to be something fishy with the DDR2 memory controller on the steppings that were tested, pointing to less than full functionality (BW tests) - which can possibly change between steppings, resulting in performance increase of the subset of apps that are sensitive to bandwidth.
Joe
mmoy,
I had a look at some of the DC Opteron systems at Monarch
and they do have the equivalent of an X2 4000 system. It's
just that it's called an Opteron insted of an Athlon X2.
Price is $50 more than a 3800 which seems pretty reasonable.
Agreed. AMD just skipped X2 4000 (so far) for the reason of clarity of their product range. It would be a very popular, IMO, if AMD shipped it. Certainly for me. I have a sentimental attraction to a CPU that can run DOS and most DOS programs out of its L2...
Joe
wbmw,
Excuse the ambiguous pronoun. I meant K8 vs. Core, and the post was mostly facetious anyway, given the person I responded to seemed to anticipate that the competitiveness of each K8 stepping would grow with sub-steppings between each full stepping such that rev F would eventually be competitive with Core, and I kind of wondered how AMD would staff such an expansive undertaking.
I think what AMD calls a Revision (f late appears to be a feature set / list. A revision may have multiple steppings before and during release.
Revision requires large staffing, stepping does not.
But I am a little confused to what you are comparing. Isn't "Core" Yonah? Or does what you call Core cover Conroe/Merom as well?
Joe
Mike,
Can you integrate security fixes into the installation? I have integrated service packs, but I never thought of security patches...
Joe
IBanker,
I agree with your sentiment. If Intel gets to $16, and economy is still on track, I may buy a few shares on theory that rising tide will lift all the boats by late H2, early H1 2007.
Joe
mmoy,
I think the attraction for people building (and upgrading) their computers is that it is a new platform that will be around for a while, while Socket 939 is going to ramp down. But if you buy PC from boxmakers, you are right, it is not a major event.
Joe
Mike,
Maybe they got the 40 minutes from the countdown counter that is part of the XP installation. I think it always starts from 39 minutes, and you see it for the first time when you are about a minute into the installation.
Joe
mmoy,
If this were a certainty, then presumably you
would be shorting AMD or buying long-term puts.
It is a certainty, right? So you should be able
to clean up on this certainty.
after falling flat on his face with so many of the previous certainties, chipguy may too gun shy to act on this one...
Joe
chipguy,
Wow, what an investment opportunity that would be given
the unprecedented product competitiveness reversal of
fortune on the way.
It may be a good opportunity for AMD investors to take advantage of that reversal for 2x gains. For Intel investors, it is just a hope for reversal of losses and hope of getting back to zero...
Joe
cd,
Your K8 claims?
Are you referring to chipguy's claim/prediction that A64 would be so overshadowed by P4EE that the press would not even notice AMD launched A64?
Joe
wbmw,
Maybe if they put 8 design teams on every CPU they do, they can iteratively improve performance to the point where they can compete with Intel on their current micro-architecture.
Current?
Joe
mmoy,
One thing for sure: you can't get a mid to high-end system with 1 MB cache per core on the cheap anywhere.
It is not to get a cheap system if the chip itself (4400) is in $400s
Joe
mmoy,
Long-term interest rates flirted with 5% yesterday and it was a really, really good time to take profits. I went to cash in the morning and only purchased a little CEF later in the day.
I am having a little trouble understanding the time scale of your investment decisions. Ok, long term rates are around 5, and therefore you went to cash.
These things (interest rates) don't change like (April) weather.
Than, later that same afternoon you bought something. But just in the morning, it was good to be in cash...
Joe
AMD says no CEO changes planned
http://news.com.com/AMD+says+no+CEO+changes+planned/2100-1014_3-6059124.html
mmoy,
There's a lot of pent-up demand for Conroe from what I'm
seeing on the enthusiast boards
A lot of Intel fans have been holding their breath for 3 years now. Those who have not dropped dead are, I guess still holding their breath.
Joe
Keith,
re: pricing
Umh...no comment needed really
Let me try:
More and more of the high end sales are going to AMD today.
Now we have Intel waving its hands saying: "If you need a high performance chip, please don't buy one today, because you would have to buy one from AMD. We will have good chips too one day. And look at these prices. They will not be too expensive. All we need you to wait. Please. Pretty Please."
AMD is saying: "We have better chips today, and they are worth every dollar they cost. We have a buyer for every one of those chips we make. We are not going to respond to a PR stunt of our competitor."
Joe
combjelly,
Can't be. We've been assured that neither exists.
Could this be the chip that chipguy told us would arrive until H2 2008?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=9480435
Chipguy can still be right, if K8L to takes as long to go from first silicon to market as Montecito is taking...
Joe
Durl,
Intel said the PC would be a small, energy-efficient system with "full-featured" PC technologies.
Does that mean that Intel is putting AMD processors in them?
Joe
smooth2o,
Pretty lame logo if you ask me...
I am not overly thrilled about this one, but I do like the Turion logo.
Joe
AMD LIVE! Logo Leaked, Launch Imminent
http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=1546