Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Something to worry about, and they are....
We have a very unusual thing happening tomorrow
Heads of state, afluent people and power brokers all in one place.
Now ask yourself [as a seasoned trader]
1) Could a plane be flown quickly from MD from a hidden hanger into the WC without being stopped?
2) Could 1000 organized nuts with guns and a deathwish rush the WC and all be stopped?
3) Could the world survive with Chirac being the only world leader left - since he has no respect to go from GA to DC?
This stuff is real, and I wonder if ALL of the scenarios are defended, much less on the drawing boards.
The sigh of relief will be heard around the world in the markets on Monday.
For myself - I will be hedged - puts in the weak and calls in the strong. Talk to you all next week, I am off to DC.
[that's Washington Catherdral, not Water Closet]
God Bless Ronald Reagan, God Bless America
Did you mean me? I have expounded my semi trading - that's as far as I need to go. I have done this only to parallel Larry's relative new experience with Les's Numbers.
If you go back to the early posts, you will see where I felt a false bottom was given [semi <10] then followed by the real bottom [semi <10] which I declared as such and bought calls, then followed by the emotional dump [semi <10] more calls, all leading to the 5/28 high - where I sold, then bought puts, etc. etc. - it's all in the posts.
Larry and I have been conversing for years and we have had our differences in theories, systems and market calls and he knows a little more of my trading history, etc. but I am not a newsletter writer nor do I sell my software - my trades are private.
I will soon cease providing my trade info as I expect some very hectic trading, but from my comments you should be able to read between the lines.
SIA raise of semi sales has caught GS in a bind
GS must be short semi's thus their timely statement yesterday that semi sales had peeked and their downgrade of fabs - thus no need for semi equip, etc., etc.
Semi mkts reacted very negatively to the GS comments and dealers, which let them fall, now have to build a little inventory before letting them run - great opportunity to get back into semi's if you sold at pivot high!!
STAY AWAY FROM QLGC [except short] - tracking under 50d thus needs to drop before it can build any mo to break it.
It was news related - upped sales
Just because AMKR dropped from 14 to 7.5 in a week does not make it a dependable trading stock - that was a fluke which cannot be counted upon to be repeated on a sustained basis.
Trading low priced stocks for percentage gains is quite different from trading in the money options on higher priced stocks.
At a low - say KLAC 41 - you could buy the 35 calls with virtually no premium @6 and have ridden them to 48 selling them @13 for over 100% gain!
Or risk less cash and buy 40 calls at 1.50 to 2.00 and sell for 8 - you can calculate the profit!!!
If you believe in your 'system' you should trade deep in the money options - it's giving money away.
KLAC was up 18.37% from PL 5/3 to PH 5/28
if it does not pull back as much as others, it is showing better RS and therefore a very good long candidate
I'm happy with today - made good money in QLGC puts and got some good re-entries into BRCM, MXIM and KLAC calls - although not at the bottom!!
Despite today, of what I follow only LLTC and MXIM gave MACD sell signals - although minor enough to be noise.
Will wait for tomorrow - gap down to SOX 470 would be ideal buy point - perhaps semi will go <10
KLAC makes good point moves for options.
Options tend to be fairly priced for whatever reason.
Premium stays stable so it's easy to change your mind and not get raped if you decide to get out quick [after getting in].
SOX is pinned in between 470 and 490 - has to break one way or another - and I say it will be up!
Back in KLAC 45 calls [shoot me]
Why? Volume rush to buy after SOX broke 50d
There appears to be a bid under there somewhere
SOX breaks 50d 475.61 briefly. If no meaningful bounce, look for 470 at UT line
Filled on MXIM calls - now hold as follows
Puts QLGC
Calls BRCM MXIM NSM
MACD: MXIM giving intraday sell signal
SOX still holding 50d
Never wasted any money in a Starbucks - and never will.
I may well be wrong, but I have puts on a very weak QLGC.
If we bounce from here, it will be explosive.
If not, we should only drift a little lower - perhaps <10%
I stan ready to pull the trigger either way, this could be a shake out - if so it got me - and I will have to pay up to restablish positions
I do have buys in for MXIM - staying away from KLAC, NVLS for now.
Back into BRCM - 42.50 calls [sold all 40.00 calls earlier]
Have to believe SOX will hold 50d SMA
Out of MXIM and BRCM calls - added to QLGC puts
Back in QLGC puts - out of KLAC and NVLS calls
Critical bounce underway - SOX/SMH holding 50d SMA's
There is no selling momentum IMO!!!!!!!
So far?????
A walk down the 50d's is just fine with me.
Too little to think about buying puts.
Just selling my calls on spikes and rebuying on dips.
MACD's: MXIM kissing - support 48.79 20d & where MACD spread=0
This stock was a leader and bears close watching.
NO SELL SIGNAL YET!
INTC hit not bad given AMD news
BRCM holding very well
Given point gains recently, we can give up pennies for a day or so without damage to uptrend IMHO.
Given GS comments on semi fabs, semis are holding remarkably well - especially semi-equips
BUT DON'T FIGHT THE TAPE - If bounce fails and leads to lower lows.
ALready some DLL - MXIM LLTC AMAT KLAC CSCO
Another 'weak' open - good - not a gap up yet.
GS claims semi's have peaked - they must be short bigtime with SOX breaking 50d SMA and trying to keep it from breaking DT line
Let's see the character of the open dip - then decide!
I have been watching the changes - thanx
BRCM breaks Apr high - pushing Feb high at 44.00
INTC leading as well - some stocks have to be above avg.
No shorts making money - so they have to cover!
That's why I wrote my own realtime software - I can track much more subtle changes which have more 'feel' to them - that is to say emotional. I track volume changes on stocks, holders, etc. as prices rise and fall. Relative to each other I think I can tell exactly what is going on and what on a probability basis will happen.
I do not rely on any one indicator as they can all lie to you. Best one seems to be a flat BB which is almost always support or resistance - excepting a news event.
You have to predict - if you are long you are predicting an up move and if it does not happen - get out!
I do not exclusively trade semi or tech stocks, but for those who care, I have posted my semi trades since the last 'pivot bottom' which was on the money and the last 'pivot high' which proved a good move as well - I sold all my calls, watched a little and then and bought puts. I 'felt' a bottom last week, sold all my puts and bought calls again - so far so good.
I do sell and buy back when I 'feel' we are in an up move [but do not buy puts for these quick trades]. Like Mon I sold some positions at the close and rebought today - the difference being a captured profit which I bank in INTC and now CSCO.
A move on Les's numbers above 80 and a subsequent reversal may well define another selling point - time will tell.
Correct, SMH/SOX have not broken out - yet
remember breaking the DT line is one thing, breaking above the Apr highs is quite another. That's where I expect to see big volume. By then the 50d SMA's will have turned up noticeably and the selling attack should turn us back short of hitting the rising 50d SMA. So I expect a good sell point and a great buy point for the next assault of the Apr highs.
Each school or flock of geese or sheep has a leader!
As an options trader, I am quick to change my tune!
I can become seller at any moment if thinks start to stink.
Watch NSM coming into its Thu eps - making a move here???
TXN 'damage' not great - no mention of CYMI miss though.
SMH - Looks like we bounced, I see break of DT line and move to 39.50 to 40.00.
Bears have nothing to sell on now - oil finally down, terrorist activity the usual day to day. Bush back home safe.
Do not expect Fed to raise rates rapdily at all - if short rates go up too much [over .75 insurance] this recovery is in jeopardy as variable rate mortgages and home equity loans will pinch real hard on dispossable income. Low rates are here to stay and this talk of 'pricing in' a 2 to 3 point move is patently fallacious. When it unwinds, the markets will fly!
No - volume will follow price - that's a bear trap.
Selling is exhausted and sideline cash is HUGE.
As volume picks up, and prices move rapidly, it will become time to sell. 'Smart money' bought into this market early May [a major bottom IMO] and will sneak markets up until hedge funds get screwed.
The strong get stronger - BRCM - nearing Apr high of 43.79,
then Feb high of 44.00 and Jan of 45.00 - resistance at nice round numbers??????
As a stock breaks out - all shorts have to cover since they are losing money!!!!!! duh
BB's favor COMPQ and NDX but upper band is contraining DJI and SPX, so tech can lead without a problem - so we could see a sucker day or two where Nasdaq moves up while DJI is down or up a little.
MACD's: showing patterns of a bull run - near kiss and diverging again while moving above the 0 line.
I suspect we will see markets sneak up and then when we see big volume come in - look for a sell point - especially on a gap open.
It's a new day and TXN gave reason to pause - now what?
As long as we hold the breakouts of NDX SPX over DT lines and SOX over 50d, I would be a buyer of this dip - may only last for a few hours as pros grab some stock to sell back to the shorts at higher prices.
I lightened up at the close Mon and I am rebuying on this dip. I have added ADI and NSM to rebuys in KLAC and BRCM - will stay out of NVLS, but buying XLNX. [all calls - and still booking profits 75% CSCO and 25% INTC and writing puts on the stocks]
BRCM new closing high; MIXM, INTC over Apr high;
NDX, SPX convincing breaks above DT lines;
SOX at DT line - nice move up Tue would be convincing.
This rally should gain momentum Tue, if not we could be looking to get out for a pullback. But we just had the pullback?????
SPX has broken DT line - DJI pushing upper BB
It's my largest position - INTC just hit Apr high again
MXIM only .51 below it's Apr high which it bested last week
SPX DT line - intraday highs - 1134.09 we hit 1134.08
NDX Jan/Apr DT has been broken - need volume
semi's making up for pullback in biotechs
CSCO continues to power ahead - I added CSCO as a banking stock [in addition to INTC] for options profits
BRCM best bet to make breakout move
Also watch INTC and MXIM to lead on upside as they alreay broke through Apr highs last week
SOX slices back thru 50d - NDX Jan/Apr DT 1473.39 3pts away
semi's should start to pour it on - TXN update will be great
DLP taking over HD as best solution - no burn-in, no fading over time and now slim cabinets and full spec DMD @ 1920 x 1080 progressive
Not so far 1474.28 today - droping .89 per day thereafter
we hit 1472.60 today - so that was resistance!
Forget it - stupid observation - has a way to go.
linear - daily
So you are saying the channel was drawn on the 7th half hour [rightmost boxes] after yesterday's close [leftmost boxes].
Thus the chart shows 4 half hours after the channel was drawn.
If so, what triggered drawing the channel?