Joe,
Agreed,
If we get a confirmation "dat da thingy" works ad advertised... at the cost level that was projected... with a confirmed larger resource which was anticipated...

We will be ready to roll... though unfortunately I will have to start averaging up instead of down.

I will wait till long after September if necessary.

-Dan

"Thingy" ?

Joe, since I realize that you (along with Tim and a few others) know more about the details of all things AMY than everyone other than the company insiders.... when you used the term "Thingy" to refer to the pilot plant....I laughed so hard I nearly fell out of my chair!

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today!

-Dan

Hi Salty

I have been off line for a while, just saw your note.

Check your email

-Dan

I have a large position in Titan (TTNP), which I have held for a few years

Joe,
I think this statement may haunt many folks that are following this stock/story:
"we are all going to wish we had bought a lot more shares"

If the timing works out right on one of my other investments (in the pharma sector) I intend use porfits to take a position that will never allow me to utter those words about AMY (or Baja mining for that matter)

-Dan

Well, even though all the headlines seem to predict the end of the world as of late (financially at least)... I think we will "eventually" find some global stability, and unless everyone in the world suddenly decides to stop reproducing... the need for all raw materials will be stable, if not stronger, in the future.

I figure that all the folks in India, Indonesia, Brazil, China, etc... That are slowly moving toward a better standard of living... will need some steel... which needs manganese.

I don't even try to factor in the battery usage requirements.

Just my two dollars worth of manganese (thanks to Tim)

-Dan

Agreed.

Though I have always used $6ish as a target based on my own conservative projections though... still a 10 bagger in my book.

-Dan

Wow.... a 100 bagger with just a quick wikipedia lookup.

Now if we could only get our stock holdings to follow suit?

Well, just for $hits and giggles, I'll break my own rules about projecting future share price, lets see now:

20-30 tons a day...
350 days a year...
call it 20 billion lbs of ore a year...
@ 3% Manganese...
figure 600M lbs yr of manganese...
say $1.35 operating profit per lb...
gives you $810M...
keep 80%, give 20% to future partner...
leaves you about $650M profit ...
divide by 130M shares...
leaves you with around $5 earnings per share ...
toss a 12 p/e ratio at it ....
and boom ... ya got a 100 bagger from 60 cents.

It could happen ... ya never know.

Excellent point Tim.
You just never know what might spark a nice run up, or bring in a large investor who wants to grab a chuck of this company on the cheap.

It should be noted though that if Chesterfield is correct, and we bounce around .60 to .80 for a while...As long as you believe in the long term potential of this company:

1) Loading at 60 cents will net you 1/3 more shares than at 80 cents for each buck you plunk down.

2) If you hate paying ordinary income tax rates as much as I do ... start building your LTCG position now at .60 vs. waiting for the pop.

Granted... traders would perceive such a move as a loss due to the opportunity costs of sitting on AMY shares for a while. But somehow I sense that traders would not even look in AMY's general direction, let alone try to trade it.

Just my two manganese cents.

-Dan

SSSShhhhhhh, Keep it quiet

Some of us are still building positions here on the cheap

-Dan

My favorite parts:

"Suboxone heroin-dependency drug, may be worth 2.4 billion pounds ($3.9 billion) to 2.5 billion pounds"


" it could lose as much as 80 percent of pharmaceutical revenue in the country as a result"

TTNP stands to pick up a lot of that market... I wonder how much R/B would pay to keep a large ahre of the market?

TTNP seems REALLY cheap here at under $2.

-Dan

TTNP - Possible buyout/partnership with Reckitt Benckiser?

Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-20/reckitt-benckiser-may-sell-pharmaceutical-unit-unicredit-says.html?cmpid=yhoo


-Dan

TTNP - Possible buyout/partnership with Reckitt Benckiser?

Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-20/reckitt-benckiser-may-sell-pharmaceutical-unit-unicredit-says.html?cmpid=yhoo


-Dan

aaaahhhhhh....... hhhhmmmmm...... wellllll...... maybe?

-Dan

It would help burn off this Warrant overhang we have right now!

I would welcome the entire AMY Ihub gang to buy as many shares as I have... Just note that I raised the bar today too!

Have a great weekend guys!

-Dan

That is all true Tim, but I would like to point out that BAJA has a few things going for it that AMY thus far lacks (but should get one day):

1)BAJA is fully funded trough all construction and into production (with contingency funds available too)

2)BAJA is fully permitted

3)BAJA's feasibility studies are all in the rear view mirror at this point... they are already building the mine.


It should also be noted that BAJA has the potential to also produce Manganese, though it is primarily a copper play.


Please note that I am in no way trying to knock AMY .... On the contrary, I want to drum up more discussion of the details by as many folks as we can get... so that we can all confirm what a good opportunity this actually is. (So is BAJA by the way, probably less upside, but lower risk)

-Dan

Joe,
I agree with everything that you point out, and as you know, I have already drank more than my fair share of the AMY Kool-Aid.

I just want folks to focus in more on what it takes to get to what you said in your second sentence: "Keep in mind that we will be producing EMM/EMD and probably LMD".

It is not an absolute lock that we "will be" (though I think that it is highly probable that we will get there) Right now, we are producing nothing, except for drilling reports.

As Tim can attest to (along with stills999, tiesto, Chesterfield, and Traderfan) sometimes the "collective mind" gets a little too carried away with what seems like a fantastic opportunity (See CCME). Especially when the CEO is a good drum beater. I think we need to keep very focused about the hurdles that are still ahead of AMY. We will have plenty of time to project our mountains of profits after we actually make it to production.

-Dan

Well, I hope to be a "lucky dog"

BUT:
if the pilot plant test turns out to be a dud, or if we don't get the permits, or if Manganese goes back to 2002 levels, or if they need to triple the number of outstanding shares, etc...
Then I should have just lit the $180k on fire... the pain would have been over much faster.

All that said ... at $0.60, I think this is a steal.

-Dan

A repeated call for some caution.
(with all due respect to my buddy Timothy, who has done a FANTASTIC job getting the word out on AMY)

I have seen many projections of the future value of AMY on this board, and over on Stockhouse. The numbers look fantastic, and the assumptions seem reasonable, but please remember that they are still just assumptions... not facts.

We have seen calcs reflecting 10k, 20k and even 30k tons per day, but the company has never officially come out with anything more than 3.5k tons. The drill program may or may not justify a step up in processing capability. We just don’t know yet.

I do not know what the future price of Manganese will be. I do know what it is NOW and what it WAS. Any assumption for higher future prices... is just that: an ASSUMPTION. We have no idea what China will or will not do in the future. We also do not know what the market demand for Manganese will be in the future. It is all guesswork… though I will admit that it is an educated guess.

We have not seen the results of the pilot plant test. We think/hope/want it to go well, but we have not been told that it is a done deal yet. An awful lot is riding on whether the process works in large scale or not. Only small bench tests have been done at this point. Claims that "they must already know the results are good, otherwise why would they engage all the third party work" ... do not fly. We need concrete proof on this one.

The environmental permits are still not in hand. We can talk about how miner friendly Arizona is, how environmentally friendly the extraction process is, etc.... but we still don't have the permits, and you NEVER know what could happen.

Cash: we will need more eventually.... and not just to build the plant once all the other parts fall into place (assuming they do).
We will need operating cash to continue the feasibility studies, ongoing drilling program, etc. This will probably mean dilution, since a partner for going into full production would likely wait until all (if not most) of the open issues are resolved.

Now, before any of you start shooting at me, or claiming that I am a "short", please be advised that I currently hold 300k shares, and may buy more in the future.

-Dan

LPH - Good questions/points, but don't you find it odd that we have to come up with these questions/possibilities to explain the purchase price?

Maybe I'm just channeling Brian(Rato), but: "Som'in aint right here"

-Dan

LPH: I apologize if this has already been discussed but:
They are buying a facility that they claim will generate $300M of Rev, and $40M to NOI for a purchase price of $106.5M ....that is equivalent to a 37.55% cap rate. Why would the current owner sell at such a price?

-Dan

If we go to 40's..... I will be devouring the pinks with Tim.

-Dan

Would you two pipe down!

I'm still lining up my truck on the loading dock ... I'll be backing it up again soon, and I'd like to see some 50's, so please start some trash talk'n. "AMY sucks", "won't ever make a dime", etc.

Thanks guys!

-Dan

Yeah ... I know the math.... we had some good numbers on CCME too.

Opps... Carla just grabbed a shovel... I gotta go!

-Dan

"Condemnation hole"

Is defined as the place where Timothy’s' wife, and my wife, get together and bury Tim and I if we are wrong about AMY.

-Dan

Hi Tom,
Nice to see you over here.
I got into TTNP just after the fanapt "reversal" and loaded up under $1... Then held it into the low $2's... only to watch it slip back below $1 (I should have taken profits...very foolish).

I added more in the high 0.80's and low $0.90's back in Sep/Oct.
This time I may sell some on the pop we should see on the P3 results. We may even see $4 to $5. My only concern: If I sell the pop on the results, then a few days or weeks later they actually announce a partnership... I would have to chase.

An even worse scenario would be an outright buyout (Which could easily be in the $8 range) which would gap the stock up to that price, and I would be out of luck. With this in mind I may only take 25% off the table.... or none at all.

At least I don't have to check for hit pieces each morning... or keep an eye on the put volume over here!

-Dan

Nope, I'm being good today.... though I can not speak for those that I spoke to about AMY over this past holiday weekend.

-Dan

$2 is just the start...

I posted this on the Yahoo board:

We are seeing very patient accumulation over the last several days. The bidders are waiting a few pennies below the ask and grabbing anything that gets tossed away.... when the action dries up, they move up the bid a few pennies and sit tight again. Eventually the MM will run low on shares and the folks selling shares with a basis in the 5 cent range will also subside. Then this thing will really start moving. With the expected positive results, and a possible partnership announcement I suspect that July could see us well over $4.

Hold tight folks

-Dan

Hi atco, welcome aboard.

Looks like a lot of us CCME/CGS burn-outs are showing up here!

I can tell you that it is really nice to be in an investment where you are not looking for hit pieces every day, and watching the put action every minute!

We can thank tiesto and Tim.

-Dan

On the Conf Call they talked about making the results public in June. The actual study itself is already done, they are just doing the data analysis right now.

-Dan

CCCL - ditto.

I already have waaay too much, but sub $5 is hard to ignore if you are a along term investor and feel that they are legit (as I do).

-Dan

CCCL: That does appear to be the mistake and in my view, very understandable. But in a nod to Andrews point about the current suspicious feelings about this space, I could not help but think of two old axioms:

1) When an error has been detected and corrected, it will be found to have been correct in the first place.

2) If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, maybe you just don't understand the situation.

-Dan

T,
With the recent news from the CCME parallel universe... it may actually have a chance to be worth a good chunk. Let's hope

-D

We may still get a crack at some....

My guess is that we will see a nice pop with the drill results... then a slow drop over the summer until we see the next round of good news. I think this is a great play, but we have a long road ahead that does have potential pitfalls. I have now averaged down under 70 cents (Just like Timothy) and I actually hope this thing drops back into the 40's so I can back up the truck and average down into the high 50's (Though I doubt it will go that low)

Have a great weekend everyone.

-Dan

Guilty

-Dan

You are right on target here Tom
I know that in the course of doing legitimate due diligence SOMETIMES the person on the other side of the phone, or typing the response email, simply "screws up", and a tidbit of information comes out that should not have. In the spirit of this board...sharing information for mutual financial gain.... folks with this knowledge try to get it out without divulging anything that would cause themselves or their inadvertent source a problem.

I know for an absolute fact that this scenario has played out several times on this, and a few of the other satellite boards.

To ban folks who often contribute enlightening information is bad. To ban rato, whose due diligence skills are top notch, is dangerous.

Just ask yourselves this question: If Gary came out with a negative post about a particular stock... but did not include very many details... would you pay attention? Read between the lines? Ask some more questions maybe?
What if Fernando were to do the same? You would be flirting with disaster if you did not pay careful attention to a heads up from him, even if it lacked any detail.
I think Brian (ratobranco) is in the same category.

Just my two cents
-Dan

YUII : Rumor has it that the chickens themselves have shorted the stock, and are putting together a hit piece.

-Dan

Snow,

Please note that I previously held 250k shares of this stock (Which I got at fire sale prices thanks to Joe) I dumped them in the $1.50's. So am quite familiar with SIAF and as a CPA I am very aware of the differences between GAAP and cash accounting.

I will let your condescending response to me drop... as the share price also does.

Good Luck

-Dan

SIAF: I can hear the screams from over in Sweden.