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rev, What significance does "violation" mean, if any, in your post?
Posted by: revlis Date: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 5:10:42 PM
In reply to: None Post # of 248549 [Send a link via email]
Telephone Conference Pages 1 Through 52 (with Excerpts) Doc ID: 318363
Investigation: 337-613 Violation (Confidential)
Investigation Title: Certain 3G Mobile Handsets and Components Thereof, Inv. No. 337-613
Document Type: Transcript Date Filed: 2009-02-03
Filed By Paul J. Luckern of USITC - On Behalf Of: Chief Administrative Law Judge
Unfortunately this is confidential but it is evidence that the telephone conference took place.
revlis
Nic, Nice sleuthing guy. Don't let anyone that's not suppose to be in the tent get in, if they haven't paid admission. Lots of non bonafide lurkers out there.
Don't get me wrong. I love to read differing opinions about our investment. But only from those that don't have a negative, or manipulative, agenda. That might just be my hang-up. (But I don't think so.)
Here's a good reminder on why Cash is King, and IDC is among the few that are prospering from it:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/117793-name-brand-stocks-on-the-edge-of-obliteration?source=email
Name Brand Stocks on the Edge of Obliteration
by: Alan Brochstein
On Friday, a client asked me to generate a list of stocks trading at "less than cash." As I went about this process and identified almost 1000, I quickly realized how many companies have been wiped out. Many of the names were already in bankruptcy, but many others seem to be headed there. I noticed how many stocks are trading below $1 in my system (StockVal), and it blew me away. I then created a list of 290 names that trade below $1 and are down over 90% in the past year. While I won't publish all of the names, I will say that they are from all sectors of the economy. Suffice it to say, most of these companies are carrying large debt-loads.
By sector, here are some of the names you might know as a consumer or an investor:
* Energy: Uranium Resources (URRE), Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), Superior Offshore (DEEPQ)
*
Materials: Chematura (CEM), Boise (BZ), Smurfit-Stone (SSCC) (I called that one)
*
Industrials: Avis (CAR), Medis Technologies (MDTL), Building Materials Holding (BLGM)
*
Consumer Discretionary: Sirius (SIRI), Pier 1 (PIR), Borders (BGP), Casual Male (CMRG), Select Comfort (SCSS), Trump Entertainment Resorts (TRMP), Westwood One (WON)
*
Consumer Staples: Rite Aid (RAD), Pilgrims Pride (PGPDQ), Jones Soda (JSDA)
*
Healthcare: KV Pharma (KVA), Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) and a plethora of underfunded biotechs
*
Financials: Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), General Growth (GGP)
*
Tech: Axcelis (ACLS), Nextwave Wireless (WAVE), Kemet (KEM), Navisite (NAVI), Spansion (SPSN), Planar Systems (PLNR)
*
Telecomm: Virgin Mobile (VM), Globalstar (GSAT)
*
Utilities: 3, but I have never heard of any of them so won't bother...
As the economy withers, it serves investors well to understand what happened to these stocks. For the most part, these firms had too much debt to weather the storm. One of my central themes this year is that there are a lot more companies out there like these than investors realize.
Disclosure: No positions in any stock mentioned
Jim, I just sent this caption out with a copy of EZMAC's post to my friends and family..
"This is a NEW poster, and JP's response is a little off the mark, so I'm a bit suspicious"
Ima - I believe it is Levi
For the foregoing reasons, the Staff does not support the Motion.
Respectfully submitted,
/s/ Benjamin Levi
Lynn I. Levine, Director
Thomas S. Fusco, Supervisory Attorney
Benjamin Levi, Investigative Attorney
OFFICE OF UNFAIR IMPORT INVESTIGATIONS
U.S. International Trade Commission
500 E Street, S.W., Suite 401
Washington, D.C. 20436
202.205.2781
January 29, 2009 202.205.2158 (Facsimile
Revlis, And NOK hit a 52 week low on this same day.....today!
People have mixed emotions about Cramer, But, say what you will, he's got a big following and he can move markets. Note what he says about Tech in #1 below:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/116407-cramer-s-mad-money-four-signs-of-an-upcoming-rally-1-23-
Cramer's Mad Money: Four Signs of an Upcoming Rally (1/23/09)
Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV show, Friday January 23.
Cramer thinks there is going to be a big rebound rally. Here’s why:
1. Tech is back. With Apple’s awesome performance, Google’s better-than-expected quarter and Research in Motion’s strong sales, the tech sector is showing signs of health. While Microsoft is not holding up, companies that make cool, trendy products are the ones to watch and are leaving “uncool” names like Nokia and Sony in the dust.
2. Oil is stronger. While Exxon was down on Friday, Cramer thinks Exxon (which comprises 5% of the S&P, more than the financials combined) could work its way up and spark a rally. Oil prices need to remain solid for a couple of days to create an upturn.
3. The Pfizer-Wyeth Merger. This $60 billion deal could lead to more M&A activity as investors make trades based on takeover speculation. In the coming week, Pfizer, Wyeth, Bristol-Myers, Novartis, AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly report earnings, but Cramer would take a look at forest Labs, which will need acquisitions to continue its strong growth.
4. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are coming back. Neither one of these financial giants has exposure to mortgages or consumer credit. As Goldman rises, it may have to do another equity offering to repay TARP fund. Cramer thinks Goldman will keep looking better and better.
Of all the above-mentioned stocks, Cramer thinks Apple, Google, Goldman Sachs, Forest Labs and Research in Motions are the ones to buy.
Speculation Friday: Abbott Labs (ABT), Pfizer (PFE), Wyeth (WYE), Celera (CRA), Sequenom (SQNM), Martek Biosciences (MATK)
Big Pharma is a bit worried about the present administration, since Democrats aren’t seen as being the best friends of major drug companies. More M&A activity is expected from the sector, according to Cramer, as a way of battling the generics. Pfizer is buying Wyeth, and CEO Miles White of Abbott Laboratories says he was a willing buyer if there was a willing seller. That willing seller might just be Celera, which produces cardiovascular lab diagnostics and has paired up with Abbott to make molecular diagnostic products. Celera’s current joint venture with Abbott and its KIF6 genetic test are sufficient reasons to buy the stock. Celera’s acquisitions Berkeley Heartlabs and Atria Genetics brought sales up 123% in the last quarter, and with the company’s potential to grow earnings per share by 50%, the multiple of 41 times forward earnings may seem worth the risk. Emphasizing the fact that Celera is a speculative stock, Cramer advised viewers to wait five days before buying, to invest in increments and to use limit orders. Cramer mentioned two other potential takeovers for Abbott: Sequenom and Martek Biosciences.
Cramer’s Outrage: John Thain and Tim Geithner with stocks Merrill Lynch (MER) and Bank of America (BAC)
While Cramer says he would be sharing a cell with TYCO CEO Dennis Kozlowski if he tried to get away with “financial murder,” Former Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain and the next Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be walking free. “Being hounded by the press until the next top story just doesn’t cut it,” fumed Cramer, although given the influence these two men have, they will not only get away with it, but John Thain might get the Congressional medal of honor for office decoration (alluding to $1.2 million he spent decorating his office) and Tim Geithner will probably be given a tax refund and an apology from the government, remarked Cramer. In the case of Thain, it’s personal; Cramer blames Thain’s influence in his faulty New York Stock Exchange call and he says Thain also pantsed Bank of America. No one is asking where Geithner stands on the important issues, and the public is “too afraid or too in love with him” to ask why he allowed Lehman Brother’s to collapse, probably the worst decision the government has made in the entire crisis. “But Thain walks off with billions and Geithner goes to Washington…what a wonderful life,” said Cramer.
Seeking Alpha publishes a summary of Jim Cramer's stock picks every day including: Mad Money Recap, Lightning Round and his Stop Trading! Picks.
Jim- This article, published today, gives a completely different picture of how much gold is left in the mint.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/116312-the-u-s-treasury-s-golden-shell-game?source=email
The U.S. Treasury's Golden Shell Game
by: Ed Zimmer January 25, 2009 | about stocks: GLD
There is some question as to whether or not the gold vaults of the U.S. Government still have any of the yellow metal in them. The question is inaccurate in that it focuses on whether there is any gold left, instead of how much gold is left.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury is no help in this regard, at least as far as the public information disseminated by the Financial Management Service goes. In a deliberate case of who cares what we say, the FMS has gone to great lengths to hide how much gold is being sold by the government and how much is still in the vault. Although the US left the gold standard decades ago under the Nixon Administration, the FMS currently still values the gold that it claims to possess at the ridiculous price of $42.22 cents per ounce.
In March of 2006, FMS issued the last of what could be considered accurate statements regarding the amount of gold held by the US Mint in working stock. At that time, some 2.8 million ounces of gold was declared as being the Mint’s possession. The following month, this figure was reduced to 2.78 million ounces, where it has remained unchanged, each month for the past two and a half years. In fact, the figures from April of 2006 appear verbatim in the latest report from November of 2008. By this public report, the mint has not gained or lost any gold for two and a half years!
Even so, the Mint has sold gold every month. Gold Sales in 2006 from April through December totaled 135,500 ounces. 2007 sales were 198,500 ounces and 2008 sales were 860,500 ounces. Even though the 30 month period shows total gold sales of some 1.19 million ounces, the working stock of the US mint as reported by the FMS is still 2.78 million ounces. (Actual figure is 2,783,218.656 ounces - yes they have it counted to the 1/1000th of a ounce.)
By this single line item, the FMS would appear to be off by nearly 1.2 million ounces of gold. Yet attempts to contact the FMS by email for an explanation have been met with silence, not to mention a continuation of the same figures, month to month for 30 straight months.
One cannot judge the entire monthly report by this single line item, but it does call into question the entire report. If this single line item is off by some 40%, then what about the rest of the gold supposedly held by the US Treasury? The Federal Reserve Bank-New York Vault is supposed to hold nearly 74,000 ounces of gold coins. According to the FMS, this amount is unchanged in the past 30 months, as is the supply of Gold bullion in Denver, Fort Knox and West Point. Without a reliable, accurate report, the public is left to guess as to which shell the gold is really under.
Stock position: None.
OT revlis, You're now in the running with olddog for rapid research of all things IDCC related. LOL
Keep up the great work. It's sure appreciated by lots of readers of this board.
Triangle, Those trades are on my Schwab StreetSmart Com streamer right now.
The market, cellphones, and this year's potential winners and losers:
Can a Pair of Steves Hold Off a Pair of Giants?
by: Shlomi Cohen January 21, 2009 | about stocks: AAPL / GOOG / NOK / QCOM / RIMM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/115617-can-a-pair-of-steves-hold-off-a-pair-of-giants?source=email
The shortened trading week began yesterday, the Inauguration Day of a new U.S. President. It ends on Friday with an important batch of earnings results, which should clarify to us and to President Obama exactly where the economy is, and where it is headed.
Friday looks to be critical to the U.S. market's future direction, because General Electric (NYSE: GE) will announce its results before the open, though the market will also respond to the previous evening's reports from giants Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), and earlier reports from Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and IBM (NYSE: IBM).
In addition, Friday will also see results from Korean technology giant Samsung, which according to early rumors, will announce a very large cut in its budget for the upcoming year in its investment in memory chip production lines. For the first time in ten years, Samsung is expected to report two consecutive quarters with an operating loss the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Ahead of what look to be poor results and guidance, on Friday the company reported a major reorganization and productivity plan, primarily among executive management. It was its first such step since the Asian markets crisis in 1998.
Samsung's new investment budget, which is rumored to be cut 30-50%, will have immediate repercussions on share prices of leading U.S. companies. Examples are Applied Materials (AMAT), which supplies Samsung with equipment to produce and check chips, and SanDisk Corporation (Nasdaq:SNDK) and Micron Technology (NYSE: MU), both of whose operations depend heavily on prices of memory chips throughout the year. If demand is low, prices will fall just based on the supply expected to reach the market, a supply which depends a lot on Samsung, the market leader with a 40% flash memory market share.
Bank of America (BAC), when it bought the troubled assets of Merrill Lynch (MER), also received some good things, such as Merrill's team of communications equipment analysts, headed by Israeli Tal Liani. On Friday, this team published a very interesting report on the technology sector in 2009, concentrating on the telephone handset market. It is a giant market, with estimated sales of 1.24 billion devices in 2008, compared to 146 million desktop computers, and 144 million laptops.
In 2008, the five largest manufacturers in the phone market reached sales of $165 billion, and the market is currently undergoing a big change, which makes it more interesting in 2009.
Apple and Research in Motion [RIM] (Nasdaq: RIMM) realized that they can earn profits not by increasing market share, but by providing niche market devices and related services.
Liani and the Merrill team claim that Apple, through its focus on music and multimedia on its phones, and Research in Motion, which focuses mainly on emails, will together succeed to generate higher operating profit of $5.9 billion - in 2009 than Nokia (NOK), with its estimated $4.9 billion. This is despite the fact that the first two firms have a very small share in the overall handset market, compared with Nokia's 40%.
The Merrill team sees Google's entrance into the market as the next revolution. Google will try to profit not with handsets like Apple and Research In Motion, but from a model built on only services and applications, and based on that is developing its Android operating system for handsets, as well as collaborating with Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM).
Liani and the Merrill team go so far as to expect that the Google-Qualcomm duo in handsets will succeed similarly to the Microsoft-Intel duo in computers. I believe that the duo of Steves- Jobs and Ballmer the former with Apple's iPhone devices, and the latter with Microsoft's mobile phone operating system which is catching on, don't think that will happen.
Disclosure: None
M3S - It already did. It was on the Schwab streamer before the open this am. I believe that it's one of the reasons we're up in this down mket. Another, is the covering taking place from Friday's close with so many options in the money.
bim, Good thinking! Thanks! Your thoughts, rationalize a lot of the questions and fuzziness that's been on the boards since the SAM announcement.
Jim, Thank you.
Where did B & S get this info? I don't remember seeing or hearing it anywhere.
IDCC' mgt stated that a weaker global handset market,
falling handset ASPs, eroding share at Samsung, and lighter
Samsung projections all played a role in deal negotiations.
or this?
and fully paid-up 3G license in 2012.
gatticaa - Have not seen it yet.
Jim, Someone said that Boenning and Scattergood report was out. Can you get that one for us?
lastchoice, In a great movie, Princess Bride, the villain's line (for this share price) would be;
"Incontheevable!" (with a lisp.)
IMO, The down market, the shorts and Call sellers, and the confusion and FUD on this board, are creating the uncertainty needed to punish the share price.
It would be wonderful if we got an explanatory PR from Janet, or, we could read an analyst report, but I still believe the explanation's in the 8K. And, it's a whole lot more positive than what's being laid out on this board.
For a different view on the 8K, I urge you to go back and read the 2 posts (245454, and 245487) I offered earlier. I think they provide a better answer on what the company settlement is all about.
bobsil. I believe you and Centerline are both correct and the board is accepting the wrong conclusion from the 8k. I tried twice earlier to break down the 8k language and make the same point. The board walked right by it.
Posted by: bobsil Date: Thursday, January 15, 2009 8:07:55 AM
In reply to: Centerline who wrote msg# 245680 Post # of 245717 [Send a link via email]
Centerline:
I agree with your post, copied below. I believe (and hope!) that most here are dead wrong in their interpretation of the Samsung agreement. I also believe that the 400 million represents settlement of the 2G arb award and 3G royalties through 1-14-09.
I just can't believe that we would give away most of the 2G money that we are OWED and settle for a fraction of what Merritt has stated that he expects to receive in 3G per unit revenue.
As you stated, let's hope we get some real CLARITY from IDCC
today.
bobsil
"I still think most here have the settlement wrong. The $400 million is for the disputed use of 2G and 3G by Samsung. There is ongoing royaltie through 2010 for 2G and Royalty Bearing income from 3g from the agreement date throught the end of the license agreement in 2012. I must have read the 8K ten times and from what I am reading, this is what I am getting out of it. Samsung was given the installment plan, so they would not have to drop a ton of cash all at one time. I think this was IDCC's way of being nice. I guess we will get clarity today ... HOPEFULLY!"
Folks, Pardon me, but YOU'RE NOT READING the language in the 8k. Please note (below) that the 400 mill mentioned in the 1st paragraph, is for "resolving disputes." And, it will be paid in 4 equal installments across an 18 month period. There's nothing here that states or implies that it will be paid over 4 years.
Then a second paragraph is used for a NEW topic.....the royalties going forward for 3G. And if you insert the word "also" after the words "Interdigital has" in the 1st sentence, you can see that it's a NEW topic being discussed. Here, they're discussing future product sales
I don't believe that we can read this and then conclude that 400 mill is the total deal when you read it as 2 separate time segments.....Past and Future. Again, imo.
On January 14, 2009, InterDigital, Inc.’s wholly-owned subsidiary InterDigital Communications, LLC and patent licensing subsidiaries (collectively, "InterDigital") entered into a patent license agreement (the "agreement") with Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. ("Samsung") covering Samsung’s affiliates, including Samsung Electronics America, Inc. The agreement supersedes the terms of the binding term sheet signed in November 2008 by such parties and provides for the termination of the 1996 patent license agreement between Samsung and one of InterDigital, Inc.’s patent licensing subsidiaries. Under the terms of the agreement, Samsung has agreed to pay InterDigital $400 million in four equal installments over an 18-month period to resolve the outstanding arbitration disputes involving Samsung’s sale of 2G products, as well as the patent disputes over Samsung’s sales of 3G products. Subject to the receipt of Samsung’s first payment due first quarter 2009, the parties will move to end all litigation and arbitration proceedings ongoing between them.
Under the terms of the agreement, InterDigital has agreed to grant Samsung a royalty-bearing license covering Samsung’s sale of 3G products (including products built under both the WCDMA and cdma2000 standards and certain of their related extensions) through 2012 and a license covering Samsung’s sale of 2G single-mode TDMA-based products that will become paid-up in 2010.
InterDigital, Inc. anticipates recognizing revenue associated with the agreement ratably from January 14, 2009 through the expiration of the agreement on December 31, 2012.
ciciagt - I believe you've got it right. As Rev said in post 245359, "you need to read this in 2 parts." Looks to me like the 400m over 18 months in 4 installments, is the catch up and fees for ending all past litigation and disputes - both 2 and 3G.
The going forward period from 1/15/09 to 12/31/12 is the royalty agreement for 3G, at some unstated rate.
There's nothing about royalty bearing in the 2G through 2010 piece.
The word "ratably" means "estimated," and it applies to the 2009 to 2012. And the "ratably" (estimated) is used because we don't know how many 3G phones will be sold at that unknown rate
Finally, JP's answer to Last Choice is correct, if she assumed that the question dealt with CASH payments, cause she doesn't know yet about any other amounts. IMO
I read it this way:
1. $400 million in four equal installments over an 18-month period ... AND
2. InterDigital has agreed to grant Samsung a royalty-bearing license covering Samsung's sale of 3G products (including products built under both the WCDMA and cdma2000 standards and certain of their related extensions) through 2012 ... AND
3. a license covering Samsung's sale of 2G single-mode TDMA-based products that will become paid-up in 2010 ... AND
InterDigital, Inc. anticipates recognizing revenue associated with the agreement (From 1, 2, and 3 above) ratably from January 14, 2009 through the expiration of the agreement on December 31, 2012.
Interesting spin on President-elect, Obama's "Blackberry" endorsement.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/155846/Hey%2C-Obama%2C-What-Happened-to-%22Buying-American%3F%22
Hey, Obama, What Happened to "Buying American?"
Posted Jan 09, 2009 05:29pm EST by Henry Blodget in Investing, Newsmakers, Products and Trends, Mobile
Related: RIMM, ^IXIC, GOOG, AAPL, PALM, GM, ^DJI
From Silicon Alley Insider, Jan. 9, 2009:
No risk of protectionism in the Obama Administration, apparently. The President Elect is happily providing an estimated $50 million of marketing support for...Canadian company Research in Motion (RIMM).
And thank goodness for that.
In today's global economy, a lurch toward protectionism would be a disaster. If an American company can't build a smartphone that Obama wants more than the Blackberry, then the heck with "buying American" (which doesn't mean anything anymore anyway).
In fact, it's a credit to the technology industry that Valley stars aren't bemoaning this "Benedict Arnold" move by the future chief executive. Can you imagine if the product Obama was telling his staff that they'd have to pry from his cold, dead hands was a Toyota or BMW?
That said, this is one hell of a product endorsement. So Apple (AAPL), Palm (PALM), and Google (GOOG) should be shipping some serious swag to the Oval Office to try to win over the world's most influential spokesperson.
See Also: Obama's Blackberry Endorsement Worth Up To $50 Million
And, may 2009 turn out to be the "one" we've all been waiting for - from Memphis, Tenn.
RIMM and NOK are punished by Wal-Mart sales of iPhones:
Shares of Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) are trading lower this morning following a somewhat bearish article published in this weekend's edition of Barron's. While the main point of the article focuses on Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) recent decision to sell Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone in its stores, the column has negative overtones for other smartphone makers such as Research In Motion, Palm (Nasdaq: PALM) and Nokia (NYSE: NOK).
Barron's believes that if Apple's push into Wal-Mart stores goes successfully, it will be creating a situation "to sell a relatively complex piece of computing to folks who may never have touched a computer, or who didn't think they'd ever want to carry one around with them." Further, the article also notes that such a development could likely "drive a wedge between" Apple and competitors Research In Motion and Palm, as the latter two have so far had a tough time selling their smartphones to non-corporate consumer types, a market which, for the most part, is dominated by Apple.
Also, according to the Barron's article, a recent demographic shift in smartphone users has created a margin issue at Research In Motion. As more than half of RIM's new subscriptions are now coming from consumers, the company now sees its gross profit falling from 45.6% to in the range of 40-41%.
Shares of Research In Motion are now down nearly 3% to $39.70. Elsewhere in the sector, shares of Palm are down 3.4% to $3.10 and Nokia stock is also down 3.4% to $14.93. Meanwhile, shares of Apple, which initially traded up as much as 2%, are now up about 0.5% to $86.23.
News - New License with ModeLabs out of France
71000 shs in the last 1/2 hour, but it sure wasn't on the upside. We just followed the mket today.
Nice try, but No cigar.
One day does not not a trend make. But yesterday we bounced back about $.80 in the last 1/2 hour to close at 26.24. IMO a lot of this was the 1.4 mill Call option shs (at least) that closed in the money on Friday; many of which have to be covered within 3 trading days.
It'll be interesting to see if we get any kind of repeat today in the last 1/2 hour? As of this writing, the market's DOW is down over 120 points
Handset - Overview (The URL displays the charts better)
Sector Overview: Handsets
by: Sramana Mitra December 23, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL / HTC / NOK / PALM / RIMM / SHCAY.PK
Sramana Mitra
http://seekingalpha.com/article/111995-sector-overview-handsets?source=email
An IDC report released last week said that the mobile phone market would slow down in 2009, with mobile phone volumes expected to decline 1.9% due to the global economic crisis. However, the converged device market is still expected to grow, although at a slower pace of 8.9% in 2009. IDC expects the handset market to recover by 2010, with the converged device market expected to return to 24% growth and mobile phones to about 5% growth. Let’s take a closer look.
In its release, IDC said that the downturn should not last beyond 2009. However, with emerging markets maturing, it expects that mobile phone market growth will not reach the levels experienced prior to the decline.
U.S. and Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipment Growth by Device Type, 2008–2010
Region Device Type
2008
2009
2010
USA Converged Mobile Device (Smartphone)
75.7%
3.1%
28.2%
Traditional Mobile Phone
-9.8%
-11.6%
-8.8%
Total Market
-0.3%
-8.7%
-0.7%
Worldwide Converged Mobile Device (Smartphone)
26.9%
8.9%
24.0%
Traditional Mobile Phone
4.6%
-3.5%
5.0%
Total Market
7.1%
-1.9%
7.7%
Source: IDC
In another report, Gartner says that smartphone sales in Q3 were weak at 36.5 million units, up just 11.5% versus 15.7% growth in the previous quarter:
Company
3Q08
Sales
3Q08 Market Share (%)
3Q07
Sales
3Q07 Market Share (%)
3Q08- 3Q07 Growth (%)
Nokia
15,472
42.4
15,964
48.7
-3.1
Research In Motion
5,800
15.9
3,192
9.7
81.7
Apple
4,720
12.9
1,104
3.4
327.5
HTC
1,656
4.5
1,315
4.0
25.9
Sharp
1,239
3.4
1,535
4.7
-19.3
Others
7,626
20.9
9,643
29.4
-20.9
Total
36,515
100.0
32,753
100.0
11.5
Source: Gartner
What is striking from these figures is the tremendous market share gain by Apple (AAPL), which tops my Top Handset Stocks list. From just 3.4% last year, its market share has grown 327% to 12.9%. Clearly, the subsidized price and international launches, apart from the user interface, OS and enterprise features have helped the 3G iPhone gain handset market share. Though competitors are coming up with touch screen models, they don’t seem to match the simplicity of the iPhone’s UI quite yet. Recent earnings coverage is available here. The stock is down almost 50% from last year and is currently trading around $89 with a market cap of about $79.5 billion. It hit a 52-week low of $80 on November 20. Speculation, however, runs rife about Steve Jobs’ succession planning (or lack thereof).
Chart for Apple Inc. (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aapl' title='More opinion and analysis of AAPL'>AAPL</a>)
Another strong performer has been Research in Motion (RIMM), whose market share grew 82%. Over the past year, RIM has been trying to strengthen its presence in the consumer market, and currently about 45% of its BlackBerry customer base is non-enterprise.
RIM reported its third quarter results on Thursday. Its Q2 earnings coverage is available here. Revenue for Q309 was up 66.3% y-o-y and 7.9% q-o-q to $2.78 billion on shipment of 6.7 million units. The total BlackBerry subscriber account base now stands at 21 million, up about 14% q-o-q. Net income was $396.3 million, or $0.69 per share versus $370.5 million, or $0.65 per share last year. Adjusted net income was $477.3 million or $0.83 per share. Analysts expected earnings of $0.81 per share on revenue of $2.83 billion. RIM ended the quarter with $2.49 billion in cash.
RIM released its touch screen model, Storm, with Verizon (VZ) last month, and there were quite a few technical problems with the release. Although these have been solved with a software update, there have been stories of exceptionally high return rates. However, Verizon has gone on record to say that Storm has the lowest handset return rate. Earlier in the month, RIM had lowered its guidance for Q3, therefore, Q4 guidance was a pleasant surprise for investors.
The company expects Q4 revenue between $3.30 and $3.50 billion and EPS in the range of $0.83-$0.91 per share. Analysts estimate $3 billion in revenue and EPS of $0.83. The stock has fallen over 60% over the year and is currently trading around $38 with a market cap of about $22 billion. It hit a 52-week low of $35.76 on December 2 after RIM lowered its guidance.
Chart for Research In Motion Ltd. (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rimm' title='More opinion and analysis of RIMM'>RIMM</a>)
OS
3Q08
Sales
3Q08 Market Share (%)
3Q07
Sales
3Q07 Market Share (%)
3Q08- 3Q07 Growth (%)
Symbian
18,179
49.8
20,664
63.1
-12.0
Research In Motion
5,800
15.9
3,192
9.7
81.7
Mac OS X
4,720
12.9
1,104
3.4
327.5
Microsoft Windows Mobile
4,053
11.1
4,180
12.8
-3.0
Linux
2,622
7.2
2,884
8.8
-9.1
Palm OS
780
2.1
383
1.2
103.3
Others
361
1.0
345
1.1
4.6
Total
36,515
100.0
32,753
100.0
11.5
Source: Gartner
Let us now look at the market leader, Nokia (NOK) whose share has declined by about 3%. Its iPhone challenger, Tube, just doesn’t seem to have any differentiating features to stop its share slide. Although Nokia is not willing to lower its prices, it should at least work on innovating its products and the OS. In July, it bought Symbian, but even Symbian’s market share is sliding. From 63.1% last year, its share is down to less than 50%. It has N97 lined up for release in 2009, which hopefully, should deliver the goods. Recent earnings coverage is available here.
It is currently trading around $16 with a market cap of about $59 billion. It hit its 52-week low of $12.08 on November 21.
Chart for Nokia Corp. (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/nok' title='More opinion and analysis of NOK'>NOK</a>)
Palm (PALM) also reported its Q2 results on Thursday, and they were disappointing. Revenue declined 45% to $191.6 million. Net loss widened to $506.2 million or $4.64 per share, the company’s sixth consecutive quarterly loss. Excluding charges, net loss was $80.2 million or $0.73 per share. Analysts expected losses of $0.36 per share on revenue of $228.1 million.
Although the success of Centro seemed to help Palm in its turnaround early in the year, Centro sales have slumped due to stiff competition from the low-priced 3G iPhone, as well as from RIM. It has one last hope, its new OS, Nova, due for launch next month. It has been more than a year since Jon Rubinstein joined Palm as executive chairman. There are high hopes for the man who brought the iPod to life, and next month we will know where Palm is headed. The stock is trading around $2 with a market cap of around $241 million. On December 2, it hit a 52-week low of $1.14.
Chart for Palm, Inc. (<a href='http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/palm' title='More opinion and analysis of PALM'>PALM</a>)
There are two likely acquisitions in the sector in 2009: Palm and RIM. Dell (DELL) needs a handset business, and may acquire one of the two companies. Another possible acquirer is HP (HPQ). It will be interesting to track the evolution of the industry which will most likely become the biggest provider of computing access to the next billion.
Disclosure: None
This analyst is "Bleak on Handsets" and slams Palm and NOK:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/111455-canaccord-bleak-on-handsets-sets-palm-target-at-0?source=email
Canaccord Bleak on Handsets, Sets Palm Target at $0
by: Eric Savitz December 18, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL / NOK / PALM
Eric Savitz
When it comes to the outlook for 2009 PC and handset sales, you won’t find many analysts with a gloomier view than Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek.
In a research note late Wednesday, Misek asserted that ‘09 PC sales are likely to be down 10%-15%, much worse than the consensus view of 5%-6% lower, with handset sales down as much as 20%, again a far grimmer view that the Street consensus of down 4%-6%.
“The over-levered global consumer has been decimated by rising unemployment, housing declines and a major drop in investment portfolios,” he writes. “And so begins a multi-quarter, if not multi-year, retrenchment as consumers look to salvage their balance sheets. This theme sets the stage for a very difficult 2009 for consumer electronics companies given the close ties to discretionary spending. We have observed industry analysts slash PC and handset targets recently; however, we believe even these are overly optimistic.”
Misek laid out his gloomy scenario in a report in which he picked up coverage of Palm (PALM), Nokia (NOK) and Apple (AAPL). Here are the details:
* Nokia: He start with a Sell rating and a $12 price target, well below Wednesday’s close at $16.51. Not only does he a sharp downturn in mobile handsets, but he also sees a 15%-20% drop in mobile and fixed infrastructure spending, hurting the company’s Nokia Siemens joint venture. He also expects the company to lose market share, particularly in smartphones, to Apple and Research in Motion. Misek also believes estimates are too high: He sees EPS of $1.15 this year, 89 cents next year and 97 cents in 2010. The Street sees $1.40, $1.16 and $1.05.
* Palm: He starts with a Sell rating and a target price of zero. That’s right, a zero. (The stock closed Wednesday at $2.20.)
“Due to increased competition in the industry, Palm has lost its place as a leading smartphone manufacturer and has gradually become less relevant as more competitors have introduced more innovative smartphone devices,” he writes. “The company is financially distressed and lacks any viable future catalysts which could help restore profitability.” He sees the company losing $1.75 in its May 2009 fiscal year, with a loss of $1.58 in FY 2010. The Street sees losses of $1.08 in ‘09 and 66 cents in 2010.
He says that due to weak fundamentals, “coupled with a lack of meaningful product launch catalysts, a debt-laden capital structure and a history of a lack of execution,” the company’s prospects will get worse in 2009. “Hence, with $725 million worth of debt and preferred shares ahead of equity holders, we are initiating coverage with a SELL recommendation and a target of nil.”
* Apple: He rates the stock a Hold, with an $80 price target, below the Wednesday close at $89.16. While he’s not quite as bearish on Apple as he is on Nokia and Palm, neither is he in any danger of being anointed an Apple fanboy.
“We believe that a global consumer slowdown threatens to take up to $3 trillion in consumer discretionary spending off the table over the next few years,” he writes. “Apple has used a slew of impressive new products and premium branding to weather much of the storm thus far. However, we expect the economic fundamentals to erode further at a time when Apple’s products are beginning to stagnate. The combination will in our view give Apple few options with which to respond, leading to either ASP pressure or a significant unit shortfall. In our opinion, Street expectations continue to underestimate the inherent risk heading into 2009.
Misek sees profits of $3.75 a share for the September 2009 fiscal year and $5 for FY 2010; that is way below the Street at $5.26 or this year and $6.50 for next year.
So why not a Sell rating? “We still expect market share gains in notebooks and smartphones, which will offset some of the macro weakness,” he writes, also taking note of the company’s rock-solid balance sheet, with $27 a share in cash and no debt.
A long time crusader against Naked Shorting, Patrick Byrne, CEO of Overstock, Inc, writes the SEC about rule changes:
Patrick Byrne's December 16 comment letter to SEC re: Amendments to Regulation SHO (Interim final temporary rule)
http://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-30-08/s73008-53.pdf
SEC's Cox points fingers, and looks for someone to wear his hat after Madoff swindle:
Curfew for Madoff as new condition of bail
Accused swindler must wear ankle tag; SEC’s boss admits failure
WASHINGTON - The judge in the fraud case of Wall Street money manager Bernard L. Madoff has set new conditions for his bail, including a curfew and an ankle-monitoring bracelet for the disgraced investor.
Madoff (MAY-doff) remains free on bail, with his wife and brother serving as co-signers for his bail package. A hearing had been scheduled for Wednesday in which Madoff was required to find two additional co-signers to vouch for him.
But with the scandal swirling around Madoff, he was unable to find co-signers. So the judge modified the bail package, and gave lawyers until next Monday to come up with additional paperwork.
Separately, U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey has recused himself from the ongoing Madoff investigation. CNBC reports that Mukasey’s son is a lawyer linked to the investigation.
Madoff was arrested on charges that he carried out what prosecutors say he called a $50 billion Ponzi scheme that has left people in ruin around the globe.
On Tuesday, in a stunning rebuke, the Securities and Exchange Commission chairman blamed his career regulators for a decade-long failure to investigate Madoff, now accused of running one of the largest Ponzi schemes ever.
SEC Chairman Christopher Cox ordered an internal investigation of what went wrong and offered a scathing critique of the conduct of his staff attorneys. He said they never bothered to seek a formal commission-approved investigation that would have forced Madoff to surrender vital information under subpoena. Instead, the staff relied on information voluntarily produced by Madoff and his firm.
Separately, Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski, chairman of a House Financial Services panel, said Congress will investigate the alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme run by Madoff.
The Pennsylvania congressman said Wednesday he’ll convene a congressional inquiry early next month to examine the alleged Madoff fraud and to determine why the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators failed to detect what he described as “these substantial evasions.”
Details about the life of the man who allegedly perpetrated the world’s biggest financial swindle continued to enthrall the media Wednesday. Bloomberg reported that Madoff routinely spent $50 on a pedicure and a $22 manicure at a barber shop in Palm Beach, Fla., adding that Madoff was a regular at the Palm Beach Country Club, where he had a 9.8 handicap.
Credible and specific allegations regarding Madoff’s financial wrongdoing going back to at least 1999 were repeatedly brought to the attention of SEC staff, Cox said.
Shock waves from the Madoff affair have radiated around the globe as a growing number of prestigious charitable foundations, big international banks and individual investors acknowledge falling victim to an unprecedented fraud.
“I am gravely concerned by the apparent multiple failures over at least a decade to thoroughly investigate these allegations or at any point to seek formal authority to pursue them,” Cox said in a written statement.
The SEC chairman said Madoff kept several sets of books and false documents, and provided false information involving his investment advisory activities to investors and to regulators.
Separately, Stephen Harbeck, chief executive of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation, said one set of Madoff’s books kept track of the losses at his investment advisory arm, while the other is what investors were shown.
SIPC, created by Congress and funded by the securities industry, can give customers up to $500,000 if it is determined their money was stolen. SIPC has about $1.6 billion to make payouts, which means that amount could quickly be depleted in the Madoff case where losses could reach $50 billion. That figure comes from the SEC’s court complaint, which quotes Madoff admitting to losses in that amount to two senior employees of his firm before his arrest last Thursday.
Cox’s harsh assessment may have the effect of shifting questions away from the politically appointed five-member commission and placing blame squarely — if not solely — on the agency’s staff for failing to aggressively pursue a massive fraud.
Cox’s statement is sure to fuel a new criticism of the SEC, an agency increasingly seen in Congress and elsewhere as incapable of carrying out its basic mission: to ensure a basic level of honesty on Wall Street.
Cox spelled out the taint produced by the previous failure to aggressively pursue Madoff: The SEC commission chairman ordered removal from the Madoff criminal investigation of any SEC staff members who have had contact with the prominent Wall Street figure or his family.
Cox’s strong statement came as at least two senators signaled they have lost patience with the SEC.
“They were asleep at the switch,” Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, said of the SEC’s failure to uncover Madoff’s alleged fraud.
As Grassley had urged, Cox ordered the SEC’s inspector general to conduct the internal probe of his agency’s inaction.
Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., said the problems go much deeper.
The Madoff affair “illustrates the lack of credible enforcement over several years by the SEC,” said Reed, who chairs the Senate banking panel that oversees the SEC. He criticized the agency’s “lack of a strong commitment to be vigilant.”
Shortly before Cox denounced his own staff, a widely respected former SEC chief accountant, Lynn Turner, aired her own skepticism. “I can’t comprehend how a well-run investigation would have missed a fraud of this magnitude,” Turner said.
The Madoff scandal is just the latest instance in which SEC regulators have overlooked clear warning signs of possible fraud.
An earlier review by the SEC inspector general determined that the agency’s monitoring of the five biggest Wall Street firms, which included Bear Stearns, was lacking.
Cox himself has come in for strong criticism.
In March, a few days before Bear Stearns nearly collapsed into bankruptcy, Cox told reporters the agency was closely monitoring the five investment firms and had “a good deal of comfort” in their capital levels. Then, as federal officials orchestrated the rescue, Bear Stearns was bought by rival JPMorgan Chase with a $29 billion government backstop.
As for Madoff, the SEC’s enforcement division looked into Madoff’s business last year. Until Tuesday night, the SEC had refused to criticize the inaction that followed last year’s probe.
Damaging the SEC’s credibility in the Madoff case was the fact that a securities executive, Harry Markopolos, complained to the SEC’s Boston office in May 1999. Markopolos told the SEC staff they should investigate Madoff because Markopolos felt it was impossible for the kind of profit he was reporting to have been gained legally.
But the SEC’s Boston office has itself been accused in the past of brushing off a whistle-blower’s legitimate complaints, in a case that led the head of that office to resign in 2003. The whistle-blower, Peter Scannell, eventually persuaded state regulators and the SEC to act against mutual fund giant Putnam Investments, where Scannell worked.
“It’s flabbergasting that nobody can nail the bums in the SEC who turn their back on and/or aid and abet people who defraud investors,” Scannell said in a telephone interview Monday.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28269487/
Here's some tantalizing predictions for our famous/infamous licensee, Apple - (IMO worth a close reading)
Five Apple Predictions for 2009
by: Jason Schwarz December 17, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL
Jason Schwarz
Add to Your WatchlistAbout this author:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/111084-five-apple-predictions-for-2009?source=email
In the face of extremely low expectations for Apple's (AAPL) future prospects, I present to you my 2009 predictions. You didn't think that $1.1 billion spent on fiscal 2008 R&D is going to waste did you?
1) Apple TV will evolve into an actual TV. The current Apple TV box has not worked. Steve Jobs knows this and has referred to the product as a 'hobby'; allowing Apple to obtain the content that it needs before the real Apple TV is launched. In accordance with the Apple way of doing things, I am going to predict that the new version of Apple TV will in fact be an Apple brand flat screen television. People laughed when Apple announced that it was actually going to make a phone but they won't be laughing when Apple announces that it is actually going to make a television.
By so doing, Apple will continue the trend of seamless integration of its iTunes platform into our lives. This is the product that will once and for all dominate the digital living room. With built in WiFi and satellite provider connections, all digital movies, music, rentals, apps, pictures, and family videos will magically appear on your television menu as soon as you take it out of the box. No instructions. No set up issues. Seamless integration. Digital domination.
2) Independent analyst Andy Zaky foretells the future Apple earnings blowout. Non GAAP accounting will never be acceptable to the mainstream so investors must wait for Apple's GAAP numbers to catch up. It is in the midst of historic growth for such a mature company and the amazing thing is that it has accomplished it during a recession.
Interestingly enough, the very analysts who are paid to see through the accounting smoke and tell investors what is really happening are missing it. Zaky's research reports that in its recently reported fiscal fourth quarter, Apple's adjusted net income grew approximately 124.6% from $1.085 billion in Q4 2007 to $2.437 billion in Q4 2008—an extraordinary number when fully accounting for iPhone sales in both periods.
Just as impressive is Apple's 75.1% growth rate in sales. Apple's adjusted revenue grew from $6.673 billion in Q4 2007 to a whopping $11.682 billion in Q4 of 2008. Earnings per share grew 123.0% from $1.21 in Q4 2007 to $2.69 in Q4 2008. Because the iPhone accounting is spread out over a 24 month period, Apple is building an expanding moat around its earnings announcements even as all analyst estimates are shrinking. A great recipe.
3) Apple will team up with a car manufacturer and begin producing the first iCar. In 2007 we heard rumors that Apple was working with Volkswagen (VLKAY.PK) on the iCar but talks fizzled. With the automotive industry in dire straits, car companies will be looking for any competitive edge they can find. Ford (F) or GM (GM) would be smart to contact Mr. Jobs today and be the first to secure an exclusive agreement with Apple. When the iCar is released, dealers won't be able to keep them on the lots.
Just as Apple has done with all its other products, this endeavor will result in the seamless integration of iTunes. We spend a lot of time in our cars and currently it is a hassle to hook up an iPod and fully utilize the quality of music and video. That will change with the iCar. This new car will make traditional vehicles look silly. Car makers have been very slow to adopt new technologies into their designs. Televisions has been around forever and most cars still don't even have built in screens. I really believe that the current turmoil in the automotive industry is because car companies are still living in the stone age with absolutely no vision. In 2009, Steve Jobs will change that.
4) Apple will enter the Chinese market in a major way. The Chinese are craving an inexpensive Internet device to further liberate their access to information, entertainment, and communication. Perhaps an alternative to the western world's use of laptop computers will fuel a revolutionary wave of Chinese gadget obsession. They love their gadgets. Before the government intervened with the China Mobile (CHL) monopoly, the company reported 574 million mobile subscribers back in March; the number of mobile subscribers is expected to grow to 738 million by 2010. To put that number in proper perspective, consider that the entire US population is just over 300 million.
Capturing the Chinese market is the prize of all prizes. To win the Chinese prize one must cater to the Internet demand of the young Chinese but do so on a culturally accepted platform. Computer ownership is not culturally accepted. Cellphone ownership is. That's where Apple's iPhone comes in. The inexpensive iPhone caters to the hundreds of millions of people who will trade in their current cellphones for their first ever opportunity of owning a mini-computer. The iPhone launch in China represents the most significant technological product release of our generation; not only financially for Apple but culturally for China as 7 out of every 8 households goes without a computer. Will Apple bite the bullet and advertise the iPhone as a laptop alternative in China? We'll see.
5) Apple hardware and software will continue to gain market share in the tech revolution. Most people still don't know how to make their own websites or to build up an online business. Apple products such as iWeb, Garage Band, Mobile Me, etc, allow the common man to become creative and market that creativity to the world. Just as the iPod had a halo effect on Macs, I predict that the App Store is going to have a halo effect on Apple software.
Consumers are tired of depressing local news broadcasts, predictable sitcoms, and the limited 'day old' reports found in the local paper. Modern consumers are much more interested in the unpredictable videos found on Google's YouTube or in their 'real' evening news found on Facebook or on a friend's updated blog. Many worry that the new tech revolution will make society less personal but I think the opposite is true. How much more impersonal or out of reality can you get than having the evening news or the newspaper feed you what they think is important?
Advances in Apple's iLife software will continue to improve and I think that Apple and Google (GOOG) will lead the tech revolution into the next stage, which will further empower the individual. In my own career I've used Apple's iWeb to expand my business at www.lonepeakportfolios.com. I can use E-Trade (ETFC) to make my own trades instead of going through a broker. I can use YouTube as a distribution channel for my market forecasts. I can create my own Amazon (AMZN) store and sell products to my network of bloggers and friends. I have access to the best professors at Stanford or MIT through iTunesU. The tech revolution is empowering the individual and Apple will lead the innovation with hardware and software. Mac sales will continue to grow and thrive as the company takes market share away from Microsoft (MSFT).
I would be careful who I listen to as 2008 comes to a close. Most analysts have been beaten up this year and they no longer know which way is up and which way is down. Yesterday's announcement that this is Apple's final year at Macworld is no reason to suppose that Apple innovation is finished. Even if no new products are released in January, you can be sure that there is more to come.
Disclosure: Long AAPL.
Andrew - I believe that if it closes over 25 on Friday, almost 1,800,000 shares will be called away from existing shareholders, or require new purchases from shareholders who do not hold the stock. That could mean a lot of new buying or replacement buying in our stock.
Jim - Compliments of Kent G. over at AB
extract...
Page 4
InterDigital, Inc.
September 11, 2007
Hilliard Lyons Equity Research
• InterDigital is working overtime to release samples of its dual mode 2G/3G
HSDPA/HSUPA modems. We believe samples will be available over the next two months,
and expect InterDigital to announce several deals with companies in early 2008. Potential
customers include leading data card manufacturers Option, Sierra Wireless, Novatel, and
Chinese firm Huawei. InterDigital already has licensing agreements with Option and Sierra
Wireless, which could facilitate product negotiations. Initially, we believe IDCC is aiming to
be a second source provider to at least two of the firms, targeting approximately 25% of each
firm’s production.
http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:mhneiB9HpKIJ:wirelessledger.com/idccSept2007.pdf+huawei+interdigital&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=6&gl=us&client=firefox-a
Jag rumor just hit at 15:27.
QCOM will make a bid for IDCC
Old Dog, Thanks for your CNBC site! Just sent a message to Pete Najarian on revisiting the IDCC story, with SAM now in the tent, and NOK right behind them.
I suggest that others might want to send a similar message to Pete N.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22408221/
Anyone know how to contact Najarian on Fast Money?
I believe he'd be interested in what's happened with SAM, the Short position reduction, and what's coming up in the next 30 days for our stock.
A few plugs from him and Shazam!
Nic, I haven't seen anyone yet speak to the issue of the importance of the US Market to NOK. NOK has been pounding the drum to everyone about their need to succeed in the US market. They've been a failure in this market up until now, particularly when it comes to their performance vs. SAM.
Now SAM, with a settlement, has a clear shot at expanding their share in the US, and taking MORE share from NOK. The fact that NOK is possibly going to be subject to a product ban in the US through our ITC action, has got to make their customers very nervous indeed. Nervous enough to ask some serious questions about them as a responsible, safe, and secure supplier. Or, in other words,....Why should I buy a huge product supply, plus inventory, if you're not going to be around in 6 months?
These customers are asking NOK today, and months before today, for assurances that they're going to be a reliable vendor. Now they're getting even more nervous. Enough, that they may be telling NOK that they'll switch to SAM unless.....??????
Now that's pressure!
I've been in this stock since the early 90's. (Almost as long as Loop, but not quite.) If ever we've been close to reaching the Brass Ring on our Merry-go-Round, I think we're about there. I just sent this note out to the many friends and family I've gotten into IDCC over the years. The lead line tells them to open up the WM presentation made this week. What follows is the body of my message:
"Go to Slide/Page 13 - With SAM in the fold, we have 50% of the 3G market. When NOK signs, the number goes up to 85 to 90%. Note where this puts us, assuming we are getting somewhere around $1.50/unit.
I make it to be over $1,000,000,000 (1 Billion).
So, let's assume 1 bill. Take out $200m for costs, leaving $800m. Then take out 40% (actually about 38%) for taxes, leaving about 480m.
Divide 480m by 43m outstanding shares, leaving $11/share. Now using a conservative multiple of some where between 10 and 15, gets you to $110 to $165 a share.
Nice!"
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/IDCC/444774980x0x256265/272dfdb8-83cf-4ed4-b2cc-62b7d03f2898/December%202008.pdf
Potential iPhone Slowdown inferred by IFX?
Infineon's Woeful Outlook Is a Result of Apple's Slowed iPhone Production
by: Eric Savitz December 03, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL / IFX
http://seekingalpha.com/article/109075-infineon-s-woeful-outlook-is-a-result-of-apple-s-slowed-iphone-production?source=email
Buried in the long, confessional press release from Infineon (IFX) about its woeful outlook is a tidbit that appears to confirm recent reports that Apple (AAPL) has slowed production of the iPhone.
In the release, Infineon reports that “revenues in the Wireless Solutions segment” in the December quarter “are anticipated to be strongly negatively impacted by the weakening of global demand and, in addition, by a reduction in demand at one specific customer.” (Emphasis added.)
Infineon provides Apple with the HSDPA wireless data chip used in the iPhone. Analysts note that in the September quarter, Infineon actually outperformed expectations due in part to strong sales to Apple, as it ramped up iPhone production. But Apple built up considerable channel inventory in the September quarter - about 2 million of the 6.9 million iPhones sold - as it spread distribution into more countries. A month ago, chip analyst Craig Berger, of Friedman Billings Ramsey, forecast that iPhone production in the fourth quarter would be down 40% from Q3.
Dresdner Kleinwort analyst Robert Sanders, in his note this morning on Infineon’s results, pointed out that the chipmaker’s strong results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended September were due in part to strong sales to Apple for the iPhone, but that Apple now “appears to be holding back on replenishing IC inventory.” Citigroup’s Glen Yeung this morning likewise identified the “one specific customer” as Apple.
Disclosure: None
Let's see - If I wanted to drive the price of a stock down, how might I go about it?
I'd probably look for a thinly traded (under a 1 mill/day shares) and volatile stock, where above average trading would have a real impact. It would help if the company were involved in some contentious disagreements with others that had huge resources.
I'd spread some rumors and questions about it to create doubt and a little fear about what the company was saying. An easy task, when there are active posting boards that jump on every tidbit of news and analyze it to death.
I'd line up a Hedge Fund with resources that could use Naked Shorting and the absence of the Uptick Rule, to pepper it with 100 sh bombs at the bid and drive the price down. This is easy to do in a volatile market where, companies sh prices are falling (mostly) and rising in huge daily percentages.
Then, when the price was falling for no apparent reason, that would cause those who were Long the stock, to wonder if there was negative news out that they didn't know about, so that they'd buy into the fear and start selling themselves. Again, a fairly easy job, when most Longs do not access Posting Boards, for daily news about their stock. It would also be great if the company's PR dep't was inactive and/or had a policy of not countering bad news.
I could on and on, but you get the idea.
(Ring a bell?)
Oh, btw, the counter to this strategy is: Confidence in Management; Lots of accurate information from analysts and company; Doing your own thorough research; Believing in posters with a track record of knowing what they're talking about; Buying shares on weakness; Having a well thought out exit strategy; And, believing in yourself. JMO