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This is scary (from the short side):
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18853842
>>> John Hussman reports that specialist short sales as a percent of total NYSE short sales have posted their lowest reading since 1996 <<<
The specialists are usually right, but often timing is suspect. Reports are late and also the specialists can change several months before a big move or they just made a tactical reallocation that is over before the data is published.
No, I apparently didn't explain the results correctly.
The attempt was to take market direction out of the result.
There was a 95% confidence for the set of paired samples (one above parity and one below) that they would move closer together in price over the two week period ending at option expiration.
There may be a 59% probability of hitting max pain, but there are a few other things you should consider.
1) Overall market maximum pain - there is usually an much money tied up in index options in NDX, SPX and OEX and a few others as all equity options combined. Some of those "misses" were the result of the actual market parity value being between the QQQ value and the overall index value.
2) I did a study over two years of individual issues with high open option interest for both large cap and mid cap issues. It was a paired study with one issue above max pain or option parity value and one below for the two weeks before expiration. There was a statistically significant (95% confidence) tendency for the prices to move together.
MSG Deleted
Weakest and most anticipated relief rally in history.
As soon as the Statue topples, the news focus will move to other things. For purposes of International news focus, IRAQ is likely to quickly fade from focus.
Images of US troops in Downtown Baghdad all over the news media. CNBC has been broadcasting for the last 1/2 hour the attempted toppling of Saddam statue in central square.
Thanks for the info.
What do you think of Invesco High yield as a possible fund choice:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fhypx.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/mv/f/fhypx.html
Selling emerging markets and Asia today looks like a big winner.
Tomorrow could be very red.
New Asia worked out well. It will be interesting if they now classify me as a trader and don't let me buy again. I bought on Wednesday of last week. On the next entry opportunity I will know if I have been locked out.
I am hoping they can hold NDX up for a decent entry today.
From Briefing.COm via Yahoo
Market Update
2:30PM: Sellers act up a bit and pare some of the stock market's considerable gains... While there has been plenty of participation - from an industry and market-cap perspective - behind today's move higher, it is worth pointing out that since the war began, buying efforts have tended to taper off headed into the close... Specifically, selling interest has accelerated in the late afternoon session as concerns about what war headlines might be generated overnight have been a motivating factor for taking some money off the table...
I will bew initiating a position in RYVNX at the close today.
Taking proceeds from sale of TR Price New Asia fund.
This rally is very labored.
The market appears to be getting bogged down like trying to walk through mud.
I will report on my experience with PRASX as well.
Purchased through a rollover IRA with Brown and Co.
Ban in what way ?
They won't take the sell/redeem order?
I understand the T Rowe Price (PRASX) does not have a short term redemption fee. I think I will give it a try.
Thanks
What fund would you recommend for the Asian play?
Here is the profile from which I access faverites.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/my_account.asp
I guess I must be logged into your account.
Here is a link to my favorites.
It includes the "Kayaker" board.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/favorites.asp
The difference is that one has to take much more risk with an undersized force.
Supply lines are at risk and they shouldn't be. The republican guard was allowed to retrench and a full moving force with Apache support would have mowed them down like they did in Desert Storm.
The Powell/Schwarzkopf doctrine of overwhelming force was ignored and now an ugly ground war is about to be undertaken,
UNECESSARILY. Rumsfield should resign.
Report: Rumseld Ignored Pentagon Advice on Iraq
Sat Mar 29, 6:39 PM ET
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=615&e=3&u=/nm/20030329/pl_nm/iraq_usa_r...
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld repeatedly rejected advice from Pentagon (news - web sites) planners that substantially more troops and armor would be needed to fight a war in Iraq (news - web sites), New Yorker Magazine reported.
In an article for its April 7 edition, which goes on sale on Monday, the weekly said Rumsfeld insisted at least six times in the run-up to the conflict that the proposed number of ground troops be sharply reduced and got his way.
"He thought he knew better. He was the decision-maker at every turn," the article quoted an unidentified senior Pentagon planner as saying. "This is the mess Rummy put himself in because he didn't want a heavy footprint on the ground."
It also said Rumsfeld had overruled advice from war commander Gen. Tommy Franks to delay the invasion until troops denied access through Turkey could be brought in by another route and miscalculated the level of Iraqi resistance.
"They've got no resources. He was so focused on proving his point -- that the Iraqis were going to fall apart," the article, by veteran journalist Seymour Hersh, cited an unnamed former high-level intelligence official as saying.
A spokesman at the Pentagon declined to comment on the article.
Rumsfeld is known to have a difficult relationship with the Army's upper echelons while he commands strong loyalty from U.S. special operations forces, a key component in the war.
He has insisted the invasion has made good progress since it was launched 10 days ago, with some ground troops 50 miles from the capital, despite unexpected guerrilla-style attacks on long supply lines from Kuwait.
Hersh, however, quoted the former intelligence official as saying the war was now a stalemate.
Much of the supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles has been expended, aircraft carriers were going to run out of precision guided bombs and there were serious maintenance problems with tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment, the article said.
"The only hope is that they can hold out until reinforcements arrive," the former official said.
The article quoted the senior planner as saying Rumsfeld had wanted to "do the war on the cheap" and believed that precision bombing would bring victory.
Some 125,000 U.S. and British troops are now in Iraq. U.S. officials on Thursday said they planned to bring in another 100,000 U.S. soldiers by the end of April.
Zeev,
Are you expecting a down day tomorrow to test the 1330/1350 support?
Regards,
Dave
I think you are absolutely correct.
As trading vehicles they are great. However, there appears to be about a 1 and 1/2 percent per month time compounding decay premium that you are paying for the increased leverage.
Regards,
Dave
There is time decay in a long option position.
Over a short term it has only a slight effect.
Over a long term it can really hurt.
Over 2 years, Nasdaq down over 30% and RYVNX and USPIX both down as well:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=RYVNX&k=c1&t=2y&s=uspix&a=v&p=s&l=on&am...
Over 1 year, Nasdaq down 20% and RYVNX and USPIX about breakeven:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USPIX&d=c&k=c1&c=RYVNX,^ixic&a=v&p=s&t=1y&l...
I agree that the short term trends seems to match almost perfectly with the underlying.
They just won't work well as a longer term buy and hold IMO.
Time Decay on leveraged funds RYDEX and Profunds.
I have noticed that negative leverage funds from Profunds and RYDEX have nearly 0 % return over the last several years while the underlying indices are down from 40 to 60 %.
It seems that these funds use long puts to get the leverage and experience heavy time decay as a result for longer term holds.
Has anyone else evaluated this?
Regards,
Dave
George,
I followed your international play and did quite well in my 401k. However, the international fund, Putnam International requires 30 days after a redemption from their fund before re-entering. To avoid trading I guess.
Almost all funds are available in several rollover Ira's that I have at Brown and Co. What are your preferences for international funds if it is not too much trouble?
Thanks Again,
Dave
Zeev,
You may not have the causality quite right. An operational war the the US must fund almost always costs the services more than they get compensated by the DOD (20 to 30 % comes out of the services hide). The services have large fixed expenses. Thus, new procurements are slowed and non-obligated funds are swept back into the general pool to fund the actual conflict.
Given that the US will have to pick up a big share of the kitty fof this conflict, defense procurement may be ratcheted down for several years.
Regards,
Dave
The thermocouples are on the inside of the skin and could be a long way away from the aggravated heating site.
The thermal diffusivity can provide some guidance as to the time for the thermal energy to penetrate to the point on the structure where the thermocouples are located.
One of the big risks with a tile loss is the potential aerodynamic impingement and lift of downstream tiles. Thus the tiles can start to come off like a zipper.
Also, the separation induced free jet of the hypersonic boundary layer can strart to melt the metal structure under the tiles. The sequence of events possible suggests a melting induced hull rupture during the critical portion of re-entry.
There appears to be a lot of action around the 1447 number on NAZ. The market seems undecided which way to go.
Here are links to defintions if it helps:
http://www.anz.com/edna/dictionary.asp?action=content&content=delta-neutral
http://www.anz.com/edna/dictionary.asp?action=content&content=delta_hedging
Basically, trying to match first derivative with respect to price change over some price interval.
Regarding Holidays and historical trends:
http://www.vtoreport.com/nasdaq/updown-holidays.htm
Re:
"I don't see a crash at all, just more backing and filling before what I expect (if the turnips will be willing) to be a massive upleg into the end of January "
Do you have an upside target / resistance in mind for Januay?
Thanks in Advance,
Dave
Hello Zeev,
Welcome to your new home.
Regards,
Dave