Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[dave_s]

There may be a 59% probability of hitting max pain, but there are a few other things you should consider.

1) Overall market maximum pain - there is usually an much money tied up in index options in NDX, SPX and OEX and a few others as all equity options combined. Some of those "misses" were the result of the actual market parity value being between the QQQ value and the overall index value.

2) I did a study over two years of individual issues with high open option interest for both large cap and mid cap issues. It was a paired study with one issue above max pain or option parity value and one below for the two weeks before expiration. There was a statistically significant (95% confidence) tendency for the prices to move together.