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Who are the "ilegitimi" that you are referring to? The biotech mafia? Aren't most of those dudes broke by now?
All the sellers are out in force today trying to keep it down. Guess I'll have to buy more. LOL
I also agree the box is well done. Nice work! One comment I would make is I believe the US testosterone market is larger than the $450 MM you state. According to a IDEV presentation I saw when I met with mgmt, they said it was a $500 MM market in 2005, and my belief is that it is probably $600-700 MM in US as of 2007 or 2008. Just a thought.
Frank: OT
CBZ! finally!
Someone finally agrees there's value here. $0.47 eps this year growing at 20+%. What took so long?
That or....
Sounded like company was going on the road in the near term to see new investors per the cc. Perhaps we have some new interest.
One of my med school friends just joined a hedge fund to run their healthcare book and the fund had no particular HC experience but was short a lot across the board. I think there are a lot of generalist firms that have huge short positions in many names, and in many cases they haven't done a lot of fundamental work on the name (or don't understand it). When it happens, a lot of these HC names are going to have monstrous runs upon short covering.
I think this is just illiquidity. I attempted to buy some and had to keep raising the bid today to get a small amount- then apparently it was either walked down or someone wanted to sell a few thousand 100 at a time and it moved down 20 cents.
Nonetheless, I do not understand it. I don't think there are many biotech names out there that are that valuable. Cant imagine why some are buying some of these other names. Additionally, i think that investors are underestimating peak Proellex sales.
OK I am retarded. The post was made on both this board and the biotech values board. I replied over there.
Guess it has been too long of a week.
Just for reiteration purposes- the AZN drug should run into some of the same problems/limitations as Lupron.
Why did someone erase my post on the fact that the AZN drug likely causes the same side effects of Lupron (bone loss) if it is an aromatase inhibitor and causes a low estrogenic state.
if this drug inhibits aromatase and therefore estrogen, wouldnt there be the same low-estrogenic state bone issues as with Lupron?
Part of the reason PZ makes those assumptions is to keep things conservative. They are not necessarily going to partner Proellex- on the other hand he can't have a $50 PT when the stock is at $10. I imagine if/when the stock moves toward $25 (current PT), the PT will be lifted.
Pacific Growth starts RPRX at buy- don't have additional details.
Anyone trade through those guys and can provide more color on the report?
Rjf- did you ever send the email?
OT: IDEV
For those who thought this was safe haven with regards to Androxal- oops. Looks like Sanctura margins are about 1/2 what people were expecting in the agreement with AGN. IDEV has given too much away to partners and IMO Sanctura was where the value was, not Nebido.
Down she goes.
No idea.
Does anyone have any idea how this stock will trade- I know some will disagree but this stock trades more on funds getting in/out at random vs catalysts. Look at the rise in early 2006- this was XMark, HBK, etc. getting in. Fundamentals have done nothing but improve since then and stock is lower. Who is selling now that owned it in the 14s? I would argue things are a lot better now. Nothing with Androxal has ever changed.
I think Oct 15 will have little effect. Either the stock runs prior or after. If Oct 15 is good, which i believe it will be and stock does not run, it will be critical to complete a partnership for androxal or breast ca asap to create a catalyst. I think androxal could/should be done in Q1.
exacty. Sad.
He is the sell-side analyst who covers the company for CIBC. Basically, upon getting the sole bookrunner role in the last financing, it was anticipated that CIBC would support the stock (i.e. write timely reasearch, have active salespeople, etc.)- CIBC's coverage has been woefully inadequate with Abrams writing reasearch about 50% of the applicable time, CIBC's salespeople don't know the story well and if you go to Autex, CIBC barely trades or makes a market in the stock. Basically they blow.
Are you trying to get the story mixed up on purpose?
1. The company does not sound especially confident that QoL endpoints could be met - witness the comments about the questionable direct causal link between T and libido, etc. Also that causal links would have to be 'teased out' from placebo. Didn't the ED drug they developed these methods for fail miserably?
*****It did not fail miserably- there was a benign brown fat tumor in a rat that caused the program to shut down.
2. They are going to try and get new clincial endpoints that they have not tested for. Their advisors told them that the 'metabolic route' was the best way to the FDA's heart, but they have never tested for the endpoints that they want as part of the PIII trials.
*****Why do you say they have never tested for the endpoints? They have data on T, LH, FSH, cholesterol, cortisol, etc.
3. QoL endpoints equals less, or no, money up front. This means a financing in Q2008, barring a miracle. Also, can someone tell me what the licensing agreements will involve? A royalty stream doesn't make sense for a company that doesn't want to exist beyond three years.
*****Haven't you ever seen a licensing deal? Money upfront, milestone payments, royalty stream. Simple. There have been plenty of times a company with a royalty stream was purchased by another company. The royalty stream becomes the responsibility or benefit of the new owner. Simple. MEDI was bought by AZN but MEDI paid royalties to PDLI- I'm sure these dudes weren't confused by the structure.
3. Androxal will move backwards into PII if the QoL measurements are requested.
*****No. Short study to link effect of T to QOLs but efficacy is still PIII.
There won't be anything negative on the call- it would have been in the press release- these guys are transparent.
Rfj- are u going to call me back? i am trying to help you?
All this B.S., including these random PIPE theories by ymaxx or other extrapolations regarding Androxal and its clinical pathway, are the reasons for the call next Monday. Normally there wouldn't have been a call to address the news but given the speculation going on, the stock dropping from $14ish to $10-11 on only positive news, it seemed like a good idea to have a "all hands on deck" update call to clear the air. I think a lot of people suggested such a call to JP and given the circumstances, it was decided to be a good idea.
I encourage a lot of these people who truly have questions to ask away on the call.
That's ludicrous. The Company has NEVER telegraphed a PIII was next for endo. Whoever drew that conclusion and based their investment thesis on that shouldn't be investing in healthcare. As the Great FG says, BUY SAVINGS BONDS!
I think the fact that they quickly set up a trial at 20 sites for a relatively unknown drug speaks to the level of excitement by doctors once exposed to the data. I got the same response from my wife's ob/gyn when i generically described what Proellex was capable of- she was astounded and excited.
What just happened with trading this morning?
Having to dispose of 10k shares below yesterday's close despite good news-
i) Someone bought shares with a "I am buying some rprx and am dumping at all costs after the news with no regard for price"
ii) I am negative the stock and want to make it appear weak after the news
iii) I live on Pluto and find a company getting an IND with the exact protocol they asked for and the exact trial design as a negative news piece
I dont have private messaging capabilities but to the person who messaged me this morning with the question- the answer is no, but i know a lot of holders who are.
Conference call is going to be Monday (I presume today was not an option)- this is a smart move given the Jewish religious holiday on Thurs/Fri and attendance could have been subpar on the call if it were held one of those two days.
I think the probability has never really changed over the last 6 months or so.
I believe 60-70% chance, only T - different mechanism of action and maintenance of LH/FSH is a huge plus
20-30% T plus libido/distress (thus requires more rigorous studies with more prescreening)
5%ish no clear clinical pathway, i.e. we don't know what you should measure
I believe the combination of poor outcomes for binomial events recently, a poor biotech tape and shaky markets have tilted the probabilities in some peoples' minds to far worse. The stock was just at $15! Proellex is as de-risked as it has ever been.
Yes, the Company raising money and doing so in a "surprise" fashion, i.e. doing a PIPE or something couldn't be further from the M.O. of the company to date. They signalled the market they were going to raise money in Q1 of 2007 since mid-2006. Some would argue doing so was to their detriment as the stock only rose from $6 to $13 on 3 trials worth of solid interim results.
I believe either the company will partner Androxal or perhaps a secondary indication of a Proellex-like compound (for something like breast CA) or something else in lieu of raising money. Should one of these partnerships be delayed and they have to raise money, I don't see how that is necessary until conservatively Q3 '08 (they could wait longer), so why worry about what small financing may or may not take place in 12+ months?
I understand your frustration.
We have a few things going on here to account for the stock price in my opinion (and not some looming horrendous news like a failure or a financing):
i) Continued poor small-cap and small-cap btk tape (look at IDEV and its clinical progress and the stock goes DOWN- and yes if ANdroxal crushes Nebido, there is still other stuff there like Sanctura)
ii) Overwhelming negative sentiment on Androxal- how did sentiment get to the point where everyone is giving it ZERO value and near zero chance of clear clinical pathway?
iii) CMO van As taking a bit longer than everyone wants to complete regulatory deadlines- the good is that he is being thorough, the bad is that timelines seem to slip a month here or a month there
iv) Lack of a breadth of coverage- research is not the end all be all, and I have been reminded by some who read "Good to Great" that many of those companies with the highest returns were sleepier (lack of brokerage lift)- this can be overcome in my opinion with execution and insider support- we DO NEED more insider buying in my opinion. Aside from JP, ownership is weak. I think the board members with regulatory experience are probably not "independently wealthy" and can be excused from owning a lesser # of shares but some of the folks- I think one has private equity experience- own far too low a number of shares- that one PE idiot bought 100 shares or something last year- made her look dumber and poorer than she probably is.
Laughable close - going into last trade, there was a trade of 10.93 and there was a bid of 500 at 10.91 and it trades 500 at 10.87.
Ok so you made it look a touch weaker. Looks like selling is drying up to the extent buying has.
Something for ThinkEquity in early October I believe.
Sorry for the frustration of the last "wish list" post. I just will appreciate one day when the market "gets it" on this stock.
My Christmas Wish List:
i) Company goes on the road to see NEW investors
ii) Andre starts working harder and more efficiently to increase work OUTPUT
iii) stock starts to reflect intrinsic value of company
Admittedly so, the sector is performing in a mixed manner (many small-caps are down but the NBI.X index is rising), but I am disappointed with the stock price action. The selling is surprising (low volume downward pressure as opposed to the higher volume drops this time last year when some big holders were getting out b/c of mis-understanding the safety profile of Proellex) but the lack of buying is even more surprising.
Stock looks weak.
There is a HUGE DIFFERENCE in the two, and I would hate to see the stock tank, if Joe PR's that we need libido studies to make the grade for a partner, to partner, so to speak....
Docbanker could probably explain this better than lil'ol Nerf, but I was under the impression, all along that the libido, distress, was the "deal braker", when really Joe explained it to me quite well in June the last time we talked, but I did not understand.
The clear clinical pathway, that allegedly allows a deal to go forward, is simply a definitive guide, from the FDA, about what to study, and how to measure it. From various e-mails I receieve and communications I get, I now understand that if we get this from the FDA on Androxal, there's people interested in buying. If we get some nebulous, "study what you can and get back with us", then we're likely delayed beyond what will be prudent to assume a willing partner, and likely will make the road a little more rough, on the path to selling the company.
It is NOT, as i understand it currently, "measure T and it's an up vote" vs "measure something else and T" and it's a down vote.
It's just "measure this and this and here's what we would like to see" and someone will likely want to buy/partner Androxal, sometime within the next 6-9 months...
-------------------------------------------------------
My understanding is that the Company's biggest risk as they perceive it is not getting a clear clinical pathway, i.e. the FDA saying "we don't know what you should measure besides T"- hence there is no way to progress forward. If they say "only T", obviously this is a shorter clinical path and quicker partnering than "measure T plus distress or libido" but the later here is not death its just a bit more work. I would agree many interpret the later as death or not a clear clinical pathway- incorrectly so.
Additionally THIS IS GETTING LOST in all arguments.
For RPRX and the greater biotech market in general (well, at least those smaller number of companies that have viable product candidates that can demonstrate efficacy and safety and address a need- this narrows the hundreds of companies down to <50, actually probably less than 20 if you are picky)- there has been a monstrous bear market in the sector the last 5 years.
When we talk about valuation, part of the reason the numbers we are talking seem so ludicrous is because the sector's performance of late has made those numbers seem unachievable. Remember when PIII's in trials got market caps of $500 MM+; now many of these companies are in the $100-200 MM range. There has been monstrous money flow out of the sector for years as evidenced by the small-cap btk sector indices being DOWN year after year and many previously successful healthcare specialty hedge funds going out of business (and there were a lot of smart dudes at some of these firms- today I heard XMark was shutting down- I am not sure if that is true or not but if it is, WOW). If one assumes things are cyclical, if/when things change many of these stocks, without regard for fundamentals (i.e. who cares who is the best) will double overnight- regardless if it is RPRX or a lesser btk company. We need this in part to happen to facilitate a significant move up but if this tailwind ever happens, high double digit or more are not laughable.
I hope we are around to see it. I remain a strong holder b/c even in the worst btk market, one can still extract a huge premium for a solid company.
Now this was a funny post- now NDAs are 1 million pages and having a small cash burn is a hindrance. LOL!
DNDN- 9901 had some signal, 9902A not much. Will 9902B git the endpoint- maybe- I agree the drug does something but will it be stat sig, i dont know.
The larger problem here is the company itself. Look at the MASSIVE PERSONNEL turnover. They had 2 CFOs leave (call Michelle Burris and ask her about her experience), 1 CMO leave (Herstick), the IR person just left. Who is left here? Does anyone want to work for Mitch Gold? Look at cash burn too- how many more times does this company need to raise money? Look at the short position. Look at the (lack of) anchor holders and their turnover. I would take profits as you can.
I would argue the previous post was over-exuberant given the facts I laid out and over-negativezuberant regarding repros b/c this guy assumes what the fda might or might not do and assumes that outsourcing never existed (hence 7 employees is unproductive) and that NDAs are millions of pages.
I think we need to clarify a few things here- including the words over-exuberant, pumper and grounded.
As I understand it, someone who is over-exuberant is also a pumper. Their arguments for a stock are fallacious because (i) they do not do fundamental research or give facts to substantiate a (+) opinion OR (ii) they give positive facts but neglect to discuss the negatives around a story. If one engages in (i) or (ii) in my opinion they are a pumper. I would not characterize this board or posters here as pumpers. Facts have been laid out, negatives have been discussed.
I am well aware of situations where pumping has occurred, either void of fact or blindly quoting the opinions taken as fact of someone else (so and so said this or so and so has this price target- so it must be so).
One could argue those multiples are low. Look at the multiples paid for pure developmental stage (NDA was 3 months from filing) in MYOG- 5x ambrisentan sales. Look at the takeout for MEDI- 9x sales.
I would hope if/when RPRX gets sold we get 4x estimated sales if it happens around late 2008 or early 2009 aroudn the time when NDAs will be filed- that would be commensurate with MYOG and I would argue RPRX's products are more novel than MYOG given MYOG was just a better version of what was out there in a crowded market.
BIG SOURCE OF CONFUSION
I believe a big source of confusion for some holders has been the concept of a secondary endpoint in the context of the company saying "all we want is a clear clinical path". Some have misinterpreted the concept of clear clinical path as being the FDA only requesting T. This is not correct. Clear clinical path means the FDA agreeing with the company on endpoints. The opposite or unclear path would be the FDA not committing to anything and the company having no clue as to what endpoints to run for the next trial as there is no agreement. The chances of this imo are very slim. It's clear that a trial requiring only T or T and FSH or LH would be superior to a more qualitative endpoint and would keep the development track relatively short.
Part of the problem TODAY is that we have a lot of investors in the stock that relate to fear. A certain broker-dealer who follows the stock and makes a market in it was talking out of both sides of his/her mouth. They said that "the stock could see 9s again prior to the meeting" to which I relied "I guess but nothing has changed; what has changed regarding the visibility on Androxal?" the reply was "Nothing". So they were pounding the table agreeing the stock was undervalued by an amount 100% of the current stock price when it was holding up near $14 when the market was crashing, but we get some weakness and their language softens a lot to COVER THEIR A**.
Pretty dumb- they should be doing the opposite and calling accounts who dont own and say that this is a huge buying opportunity. Oh, they did say they were doing that when I suggested it. Who knows.
This too shall pass. Just like November 2006. They were modifying their stance then too.
Proellex is bigger IMO b/c it focuses on a population which is relatively more UNDERTREATED than the population addressed by Androxal.
QOL is somewhat important for two reasons- (i) studies need to have more time and effort into screening for patients b/c not only are you seeking pts who have low T but now pts with QOL symptoms that have to be improved and (ii) my understanding is next trial would not be pivotal PIII should QOL be required (i.e. another pre-pivotal trial needed- one like the last one but with QOL). I think that they can hit the endpoints for (i) but (ii) means the program is lengthened by 6-12 months and a partnership could be delayed.
All this is kind of dumb given the value of Proellex alone is 3-4x the value of the company in today's terms and once the pivotals for fibroids are underway or complete, it's woth more than 3-4x.
This feels exactly like Nov 2006. We had pervasive fear and people were bidding up the chances that there would be safety issues with Proellex. Despite seeing no evidence as such, people began to assume it as fact. The Company has stated it feels it has provided evidence such as to not require QOLs but "who knows what the FDA will come up with". That is not certainty. Nor is that worth a 30+% drop in the stock price given Proellex is most of the story. Goofy.