Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
NGD (update)
Q1/18 earnings were a disappointment. They lost 0.05/share and the AISC was 2447/oz.
Mgmt assured investors that production and cost guidance will be met for the remainder of 18.
Long-term debt will be a problem if results do not improve soon.
The underlying problem is the grade. 1.1g/t with recover at 81% will not cut it. Feasibility projected 1.24g/t with 91% recovery.
FCX Q1/18 earnings = 0.46 compared to 0.15 in the year ago Q. It still missed by 0.09
The following is a FCX analysis by one investor's Good Business Portfolio Guidelines:
1. Good businesses increase Divy in 7 out of the last 10 years. FCX fails. It yields only 1%
2. Forward CAGR must exceed Investors annual expenses. FCX 3-yr forward CAGR > 85% FCX is a great investment according to this criteria.
3. Total return must exceed Dow's total return. FCX returned -47.5% for the last 5 years. Dow returned 48.8% for the same period. Fail.
4. S&P CFRA rating must be 3 Stars or better. FCX rates 5 stars with a target of $21. Pass.
5. Qualitatively, investor must be willing to buy the whole company if he could. The issues here for me is whether I would want to own a un-relocatable business in Indonesia, a country run by corrupt filth. Fail.
IONS has apetite for marketing the fruits of its research
AKCA is its affiliate public company responsible for marketing some of IONS therapies. The relationship between AKCA and IONS is fairly byzantine.
IONS has $1B in cash plus recurring revs EOY 2017
received $113mn from BIIB in 2017 for Spinraza royalties
Expenses for FY/2017 were $397mn
guided for $800mn cash EOY/18
Volanesorsen has an AdCom 5/10/18 and PDUFA 8/30/18
Inotersen has a PDUFA 7/6/18
AKCA will be responsiblie for marketing Volanesorsen and Inotersen.
Both PFE & ALNY will likely soon be marketing competing compounds to Inotersen
The long-term value of IONS is primarily in its pipeline, particularly in neural pipeline.
ALKS 's NDA filing for its Major Depressive Disorder treatment received an unusual treatment from this FDA. Speculation about the reasons for this unusual treatment are divided into two camps.
FDA initially issued a Refusal to File for ALKS-5461. Later, it reversed course and issued a PDUFA date for
It is possible that the Refusal to File was simply a matter of a small mistake in the electronic filing. Others believe it had to do with the fact that ALKS-5461 is supported by only one positive late-stage trial out of three.
Peak sales for this compound could be ~$1B.
This is the kind of issue where the input of the unwashed wretch Feuerstein would be informative. Although he is disinformational FILTH, his ideas govern trading at critical times in biostock movement.
YNDX update
According to Finviz, PE = ~77, but forward PE = ~22. The ride hailing segment and currency projections account for the difference
4th largest division is Russian Craigslist
CPHRF hired an effective CELG division president as CEO
He has made several deals since becoming CEO:
* Launched antibiotic cream and sold the rights for Mexico
* Acquired Canadian rights to Trulance from SGYP
* Acquired Canadian portfolio from CRME
* Acquired rights to an approved skin treatment from ACRS
His marketing team now has more to sell with approximately the same overhead. Net Revs, EBITDA & Cash are all improving.
Put this on the watchlist
MX If LG & Samsung IOT Revs grow, so will MagneChips.
trades at a forward PE of 8.8. This is 68% below specialized semi industry's forward PE of 27.5.
Because of the possibility that MX may do a share offering in 2018, I would not consider trading this until it did so.
DRNA settles with ALNY over trade secrets dispute
A big internal source of uncertainty over what targets can be pursued has been removed.
Potential partners had been scared away from platform by this issue.
partnership discussions may now be renewed.
Cash runway thru 2019
Because the restrictions associated with this settlement are confidential, investors cannot evaluate potential impacts.
RGNX update
licenses out adeno-associated virus technology to other gene-editing companies.
has 20+ partnered programs
When NVS acquired AVXS , that triggered a clause in the AVXS-RGNX partnership contract stepped cup cash milestones to RGNX.
As a result cash is now more than $420mn.
YY is a chinese social media company that provides streaming access to individuals performing their own lives.
HUYA is their will live streaming gaming platform partnered with Tencent. ADSs will be spun out, although the date is not yet on the calendar.
PPS has fell ~40% since the February report due to a slower rate of growth.
Gross margin still grew in the most recent Q to 39.4%
The next report date is 6/4/18.
PE = ~15 with substantial growth and increasing margin makes this a decent speculation into the next earnings report.
YNDX has 55% market share of Russian search
Google of Russia with HQ in Netherlands
developing self driving car
co-developing ecommerce with Russian national bank
Installment payment division within Russian brick and mortar is growing rapidly
YNDX is not the target of Jewmerican sanctions. CEO Volozh is not considered an oligarch.
Stock seems to trade with Russian markets and oil, instead of on it's own.
* can be traded like a Russian ETF instead of RUSS and RUSL.
JNP is a rarity among small cap pharmas in that they are cash flow positive.
grew revs by 24% in 2017
licensed its only approved drug to Merck and Allergan for upfronts and 10% royalties.
Pharma Services Division provides specialty engineering , trial manufacturing, consulting and incubating space to small pharma. This division grew revs by 32% from 2016.
owns 2 drug delivery platforms:
* bio-adhesive delivery system
* intravaginal ring (IVR)
developing 3 IVR drugs in the pipeline for out-licensing
EBIO will read out Ph3 Bladder Cancer data in May-June/18.
Bladder cancer is a $1B pa commercial opty. A 20% market penetration could lead to a 1.2B MC
As of 3/18, Cash = $25mn with MC = ~$65mn
The initial commercial opty would be ~25K patients (who have failed standard of care and refuse cystecomy). The most recently approved therapy is priced at $37K.
Biotech stocks usually trade 5-10x revenues. At a multiple of 6, EBIO MC would be $1.2B
Watch AUA meeting in May/18
DVAX released Ph1B/2 data from its melanoma study.
At best, the drug's value will be as a combination therapy
More data will be released at ASCO 6/1-5.
For now, everything rides on Hepislav commercialization efforts.
The likelihood is that operating costs will be ~ $160mn for 2018. As long as Hepislave revenues project out at less than $40mn, this is a probably a short candidate.
SCUPF is Canada's second largest coffee chain. It will convert some stores to retail cannabis outlets to take advantage of the coming legalization of Cannabis in Canada.
MC = $61.5mn
partnering wth NAC.V. Converted stores will be co-owned by SCUPF, NAC and franchisees.
I'd like to know more about the franchisees. I don't like to invest in Jewish family businesses. The Serruyas have not been kind to public shareholders.
CYAN pps has been slammed after mgmt announced that they will be unable to grow spirulina until at least 7/18.
Failed water conservation measures, higher than normal winter rainfall and uncharacteristically low temperatures have damaged nutrient levels.
Management has decided to re-inoculate spirulina ponds.
If the re-inoculation works, revenues will be impacted by higher costs and lower production until late 2018
CYAN may have to adapt to climate change. Salt water intrusion into Pacific Island fresh water supplies is now a fact.
* put on the EOY tax loss candidate list.
CLDX failed Ph2 breast cancer study and is now trading below .70
This is at least a dead cat bounce speculation due to two combo studies with Opdivo and a cash runway thru 2019
According to the CEO, Varli + Opdivo will read out at various medical meetings beginning the summer of 2018.
There may be a run up into ESMO and possibly ASCO
* Put on the EOY tax loss selling list.
EGFEY trades at ~70% discount to BV
Both earnings and BV are growing
Liabilities and leverage are slow decreasing
If Euro gains against the $, this may be a place to diversify
Sentiment is still on the investors side. Yet, Prem Watsa calls it
the most undervalued bank in the world. Read Fairfax 2017 Annual letter to Shareholders.
Risk factors include: Leftist Greek Regime, this is the third year of capital controls and there is still a possibility that Greek banks will be recapitalized.
VTVT lead drug failed, as most expected, in a Ph3 Alzheimers study 4/18.
Next in the pipeline are two Ph2 candidates in Type 2 diabetes
had $11.8mn on 12/31/17. will have to raise cash during H-1/18, probably on unfavorable terms.
may be EOY tax loss candidate, at best. Put on list for EOY evaluation.
MNLO dropped significantly on poor results for a Ph2 Atopic
Dermatitis study during 4/18
There are mitigating circumstances:
* It has recently reported positive Ph2s in two other indications
* Two more Ph2s are pending.
Cash on 12/31/17 was $62.5mn providing a runway thru 2018
SGMO has 6 clinical stage zinc-finger platform gene editing indications in its pipeline ( CRSP has one )
Zinc-finger gene editing may be preferable to CRSPR due to SGMOs head start and due to concerns about CRSPR off target editing.
In mid-2018 PH1/2 data in Hemophilia and MPS will either validate or invalidate the zinc-finger gene editing platform.
If these two read-outs are positive, SGMO could easily double its MC. It is trading at 18.64 as I type.
has partnerships with PFE and GILD, but standalone success could be driven by its self-directed programs.
Self directed programs come in 3 waves:
1. Fabry disease filing in mid-2018
2. Validation of AAV crossing the BBB: Tau reduction, ALS, FTLD
and Huntington's
3 Oncology collaboration with Kite.
Truth from Johny Gat :
MNOV read out positive Ph2B data in progressive MS during 4/18
This is significant because there is presently only treatment for Progressive MS. 85% of the overall MS patient population suffere from relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS)
Roche produces the only approved treatment for Progressive MS. This Ph2B study showed MNOVs compound to be superior to Roche's compound in slowing the time to confirmed disability.
MNOV used this data as an opty to raise $40mn. It now has a runway until Q4/2019.
MNOV also has ongoing clinical programs in NASH & ALS.
VXRT has a proprietary adjuvant platform that makes previously deveoped vaccines more convenient. This makes it a leader in oral vaccines.
Lead program is an oral vaccine for norovirus. They will begin a challenge test in H-2/18 that will read out in H-1/19.
Oral flu vaccine completed a non-inferiority study against the injectable Fluzone from Sanofi. Results showed superiority to
Fluzone w/o injection site issues.
has an HPV-associated tumor program. A Ph1 study is being designed.
VXRT is continuing the Ph2 program for a topical genital wart treatment. This study will read out late in Q2/18.
Cash was ~$30mn on 12/31/17. The runway extends to H-2/19.
VSTM 's lymphoma drug was granted priority review on 4/9/18
PDUFA date = 10/5/18
Duvelisib is differentiated by oral convenience combined with relative efficacy for refractory patients.
Cash at the end of the last reported Q = $82mn This provides a runway into H-1/19. An equity offering is a possibility during 2018.
One theory on VSTM's lagging valuation is that the lymphoma therapy space is in flux. Imbruvica may be dethroned by AZN's Calquence. Several Combo therapies are being tested. It takes much diligence
to keep on top of all this flux.
I would strongly consider take a starter position after an equity offering.
ZUO ipos 4/12/18
ZUO issued 10mn shares at $13 for a valuation of 4.7x FY19 projected Revenue.
Most recent qtrly growth was 62% Y/Y.
provides a subscription management service to subscription services.
PHII is a recent earnings winner ex one-time merger expenses
2 Divisions:
* Oil & Gas Services division struggles
* Air Medical is very profitable
could very well be taken private.
Next earnings will be mid-May.
AMRN topline Reduce-It results are expected Q3/18
Next earnings release will be around May 2.
will have plenty of cash when Reduce-It is read out.
Vascepa YOY growth is slowing. 2018 may get a boost if Vascepa continues to get approval in the countries of the middle east
Reduce-It resuls will have a huge impact on the stock.
RYTM is testing lead compound in 6 rare indications. Total addressable market in U.S. & EU = 15K patients
4/2/18 in-licensed appetite control from Takeda for $5mn upfront
12/31/17 had $148mn cash with a runway into H2/2019.
ATRS 9/29/18 is the PDUFA date for its subcutaneous testosterone treatment
Royalty revenues from AMAG's auto-injectable Makena should increase for mush of 2018.
Otrexup and their auto-injectable migraine treatment continue to grow
ANDAs for 3 TEVA-partnered generics have been submitted including an Epipen product that is a potential $500mn-plus opty.
In their latest reported Q, net loss fell to $3.7mn with cash equaling $31.6mn
* consider a run-up strategy after June earnings release.
CNAT failed a Ph2B post liver transplant HCV fibrosis study during 3/18.
CNAT's future relies on the fact that it has 3 more shots on goal. Based on these 3 results, NVS will decide whether to conduct (a) Ph3 (as a single agent or in combination with its own compound)study(ies).
The next result will be NASH cirrhosis and will read out H2/18.
has a cash runway that will take it thru these 3 studies.
ICPT raised $250mn from a 4/4/18 stock offering
MC = $1.8Bn
Offering will not cover R&D thru EOY.
Ocaliva is presently approved for a cholestatic disease known as Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC). NASH is an inflammatory cholestatic disease.
presently enrolling Ph3 NASH & Ph2 Biliary Artresia
PLLLY is a lithium explorer that will likely cross-list on the NAZDAQ in 2018.
raised capital with a secondary on the ASX 10/17
Cash on 12/31/17 = ~$12mn
exploring a resource in North Carolina
North Carolina resource is too small to support a profitable mining operation. End game is to define the resource and sell it to a mining operation with multiple resources.
ABAX designs and produces Point of Care Analyzers and associated consumables for medical and veterinary applications.
Most recent Q saw growth of veterinary instrument sales of 12% and consumables of 13%.
ABAX produces a POC analyzer for humans that boasts the broadest menu of multi-chemistry and electrolyte tests for humans. In the most recent Q, this division grew analyzer sales by 11% and consumables by 25%.
In 2018, ABAX is launching 3 additional products:
* 1/18 4-in-1 Vetscan Rapid Test for Heartworm, Anaplasm, Ehlichia &
Lyme
* 2/18 POC Urine Sediment Analyzer
* Cellphone Ap version that will be compatible with Abbot Labs
hardware
The potential weakness of ABAX business model is that it has no direct control of the commercialization of any of its products. Abbot markets the Analyzers and Catapult Health markets consumables.
Also, the stock trades at a relatively rich valuation of 60-something x earnings. Consider buying during market volatility; because, comparables should be better than 2017 due to the above product launches.
IDSY has a new CEO from QCOM with a track record of success
IDSY sells hardware and software in 3 product categories:
* Industrial Truck Management
* Connected Vehicle Solutions
* Logistics Visibility Solutions
Greatest opportunity in the Connected Vehicle Solutions segment where they are servicing 10% of the AVIS fleet. They are targeting
100% by 2020 ( although revs would be amortized until 2022 and would be lumpy)
MITK dominates the mobile check deposit market
Although annual check volumes are in decline, mobile check deposit volume is still rising
MITK earns 50% margins from 6100 financial institutions using this technology.
Growth strategy depends on success of Mobile Verify product. Experian & Fujitsu include this product in their Know-Your-Client and Anti-Money-Laundering identification product suites.
MITK must grow it Mobile Identification revenue for the time when mobile check deposit revenues begin to decline.
AIMT 's oral peanut allergy treatment will likely be the first choice for ages 4-17
It will also be first to market and enjoy market preference for most adults until and if ANAB's treatment comes to market
FDA approval could come in 2019
Competitor ANAB's treatment targets adults and is 6 years away from coming to market
Competitor DBVT 's patch is best suited for infants and pre-schoolers and has poorer overall efficacy.
NTNX forecasted 3X current run rate by FY21 at its investor day 3/12/18
Leader in private cloud space (the lingo is hyperconverged infrastructure).
touted as highly differentiated VMW killer
MC = $8Bn EV = $7.72Bn
If markets stabilize, may be worth playing for the $100 roll.
SPOT floats their own IPO 4/3/18 w/o underwriters. stock should be volatile w/o underwriter support.
It is a cash burning business.
If this company succeeds, it could be a significant blow against globalist banking filth.
It is the #1 music subscription service by subscriber quantity. Apple is #2 and Amazon is #3. It's primary moat is that people don't want the complications of switching to another service.
TCEHY is a major shareholder.
A successful IPO will help them implement their strategy of creating their own record label. They have the data to do it. If they get the capital to do it, they will reduce their dependency on outside business interests.
GWPH has an AdCom on 4/19/18 and a PDUFA on 6/27/18 for Epidiolex.
Epidiolex will be patent protected until 2035, if it gains FDA approval in 2018.
A recent case in Britain, championed by Patrick Stewart, has shown how backward, ineffective and truely fucked up the nation of Britain really is. Cannabis Oil is not legal Britain.
Epidiolex will be up for MAA approval Q1/2019.