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I wish you are right, but that would take some huge news, IMO. Otherwise, the P/E is not likely to support that.
But, I am optomistic about AERT and think it will have it's day if it can ever shake off these side issues.
The Watts plant potential could be just how this company arrives.
Thanks again Mark! Another good find. Got a feeling you may be back in again at some point.
Thanks, and Good Luck!
Another good article, thanks. Sure would like to see it bust back up over a $ and stay above. Some think 4 q earnings out at end of month.
Mark,
I think that's new, great find! We knew it was coming, but nothing like knowing that it is becoming a reality.
With the price back down, I did manage to get those few more shares that I wanted today. Hope the Watts news will get the credit it deserves. IMO, it's big to be growing in this market.
dh
Congrats! I wasn't that quick. I think I'll hold off now, I didn't have much more put together anyway. Was hoping to grab a few up on the cheap, under a buck. Still could be a good price to get in, even now though, IMO.
The next few months should be very interesting, and telling. I have seen one stock I once owned go from under 5 to over 30 in just a few years, but I failed to participate in it. I don't know what AERT can do, but I sure want to be ready for whatever AERT has in store. Hope they can deliver, but optomistic.
I'm in Aert about as heavy as I can. Actually I meant to move a little more into my broker account today to try to catch a few more shares under a $, but I got busy and did not get around to it.
Maybe tomorrow.
Good luck.
Glad to see you back, your'e doing a good thing here. I've been following this many years thinking it may pop some day. It seems like the ingredients are there.
I mostly post on IV as dh, as do most of the better ones do IMO, but I think you have something to offer here. Maybe some others will care to drop by.
SD
Nice work on the I-Box. I gave it a mention on Investor Village.
That would be good news. (SEC filiings up to date.)
They part I question is if ethanol makers can't produce profitably now, then how does adding 1% JR, and paying nearly a buck a gallon more to produce with that 1%, allow them to make a profit then?
Maybe it's the green credits, or maybe the combined fuel is just so much more valuable, just guessing.
I have no idea what it is really worth, if anything. Do you think it could be worth 48 cents a gallon?
Good point, and you may be right, but I think we are to expect that there are other productions (uses), with greater mixes than the 1% the E-diesel would use.
For 1 million gallons of EDiesel that's 10,000 gals of JR fuel or 10,000 x 48 $ 480,000 per 1 million gallons of E-diesel.
But if there is a deal for more of a cut of the proceeds on top of that it begins to look much better.
Like someone began earlier, my guess is this:
E-Diesel contains maybe 1% JR fuel
So each 100 gallons of Ediesel contains 1 gal JR (100x.01=1)
At $48 a gal, each 100 gallons includes a cost of $.48 per Ediesel gallon for JR (48/100=.48)
In other words each gallon of Ediesel contains 1% of $48.00 (.01x48=$.48)
So, 1 gallon Ediesel sold for say $ 3.00 sends $.48 to JR per gallon, before any other agreed percentages that might be on top of that.
The drawback you may say is that JR is not getting $48 for every gallon sold on the market and is producing only 1 gallon for each 100 sold. But even $.48 of every gallon sold is impressive and perhaps realistic.
As for the 70/30 - I think that was approximately what he said, but it could have been an example, or, as I said, I could be just wrong.
I agree with whoever said wait for a PR to be sure. But, the point he made was clear, JR's part of the profits would be much more than the 1% for E-Diesel that JR contributes in actual product.
Could we have been burnt so many times we wouldn't see what we were looking for even if it happened?
I talked to Dennis Fisher today, (after the bell) -
(Investor Contact:
Executive Vice President of BioCentric Energy, Incorporated
Dennis Fisher 714-552-4965)
- I called to see what BioCentric had to say. He was very upbeat about JR's process and firmly believes in it. He doesn't care how it works, just that it does, even if it uses "Pixie Dust". He also understood and acknowledged my concerns about past USSE PR's.
This was some of what I got out of it, but I could very easily have misunderstood some or all:
1.) Next Tuesday is to bring acceptance of JR's process essentially to the world by demonstration to some of the leading authorities on biofuel. I asked if BioCentric also needed convinced, he said no, they are already convinced and would not bring these people to Natchez if not so.
2.) The E-diesel product uses 1% of JR's product, but that 1% is what sets this fuel apart from everything else. So, the split of approximately 70/30 (70 to JR) will be on the sale of the entire product sold. In other words, if 1 million gallons of E-diesel is sold with 1% JR mix, JR still gets 70% of proceeds on the entire 1 million gallons.
3.) The focus is still selling the fuel for power generartion to utilities that use diesel for electrical generation. He says thats about 1/7 of all electrical generation. Also, though, heavy focus on government military use.
4.) He says most smaller biofuel companies are having trouble trying to come out ahead. Something about the big companys like ADM and Cargill. But, he says that those small companies could become sellers to Biocentric/SSTP where their product would be mixed with JR's to make even more E-Diesel. Potentially (assumed) those small companies find a profitable market in that way, and BioCentric\Usse therefore has quicker access to much more production to add with JR's 1%. He spouted numbers everywhere, mostly over my head, but with the point of the product being very profitable, and with credits, and not so sensitive to increases in feedstock prices as are the smaller ethanol producers.
Why Dominion Republic? Current cost there make that potentially more profitable compared to energy costs here. Looking to maximise possible profit. But sales potentials are bigger than just D.R.
I think understand it all a little better. Just my DD and opionions, do your own, I'm ussually wrong.
dh
FWIW: I sold about half of my USSE last week and put that in SSTP. So, I'm close to half and half each.
In my own mind, it makes me feel a little like I have achieved what I wanted, that I expected with the dividend.
Just thinking of it like I got the dividend, but the price for each went down somewhat. In any case, I feel that I am ready for however this goes, and able to benefit if either company begins to appreciate more than the other, if any at all.
I had seen that, and I stand corrected. But, still concerned with the CEO change if Mr. Zuckerman intends to follow through.
Also, I believe the funding to build the plant is coming from Radcliff and company, not USSE. Is that correct? If so, how much of any sales will USSE see vs. Illinois Biofuel? Not saying anything wrong with that, but USSE would likely not recieve as much as if they funded the whole project. So, just interested in some more details, if the company can give us a clue.
Some of us, who have been here awhile, including me, have grown impatient. I think that if we had been told back then that this is great but will take time, then I believe we would likely not be so impatient now.
I imagine that to someone just finding USSE, that this could seem to be a good entry point.
To be wise, I think we will have to separate our emotions and just step back and look at what we have or don't have. Emotions and investing are dangerous.
I feel like I lost something of SSTP that I had bought. Still waiting to see about CYBR. And, I'm disappointed about the lack of promised revenues. Frankly, that first CC (200 reactors in 1 year) was what sold me the most (although I was already in), but it's being nothing but delays, disappointments, etc, since that first call.
I'm willing to try to see this through the eyes of a first time investor for now, but with a new CEO you have to ask "What are the plans?" and "What has changed?"
Is Illinois BIO still going to happen? We have not one update since the announcement, and with USSE, the typical bet is that no news means it's been dropped. Update PLEASE.
So many more questions that I and others have raised. I expect to see a plan with a timetable and exection of the plan, not more new ideas for the future. Sell something!
Did selling power not work out? Say so, then tell us about Motor Oil and additives. But, get something going then sell it or give us some realistic time frames. I'll either hold and wait or sell if I don't like what I hear. But get some credibility! I have no reason to think that the new CEO will not get this under control, but if this product is so good then there must be some way to sell it.
If there is something in the way, maybe obtaining a patent or permit, let us know. That's better than thinking something must be wrong with the product.
Sounds good, but it's still just another carrot on a stick at this point. Through all the glowing potential, I'm ready to see some actual sales, or, have explained what the holdup is and approximately how long that will be.
Mr. Zuckerman:
When will production begin at Natchez?
What volume will that be?
What specifically is keeping USSE from producing and selling at this moment?
What qtr do you anticipate significant sales proceeds to arrive?
Is Illinois Bio still in the works?
Is equipment going that way? If so, when?
What part of the revenue pie can USSE expect to keep of the Joint Venture?
Is Vee Go still in this mix?
Is Vidalia still a possibility? What time frames?
When do you see getting USSE off pinks? What does the USSE balance sheet look like?
Can USSE or, USSE with your patents, make green plastics? Plastic prices are steadily on the rise.
How many dollars in missed sales is the company losing each day while Freeus is not producing? (assuming it is not)
How, if any, will USSE shareholders directly benefit from SSTP?
Has, or, are SSTP shares being transferred to USSE? How many?
Will you do anything about the number of shares? Will USSE buy back shares to make this more attractive? At least get control of this?
What can you do to assure shareholders that the company is now in capable hands, and that the company will plan, and actually implement plans, to fruition in short order?
Can you make promises that lead to fact?
I appreciate your PR, but, I think many of us have had our fill on hearing about the glowing possibilities. Simply, I would like to see some stated goals and timeframes to measure by. If production is 4 months away, just say so. We'll decide whether to leave, stay, or buy more until then. When that time is up, we'll see how well it has gone. I guarantee I won't remain here if this company does not begin to sell something. I think you know that USSE credibility could tip to zero at any time now. We need to know that this is real, and real customers is the only proof.
Answer these questions in a PR and you will go along way towards settling the confusion created over the last few months.
You may be right, but, spokesperson I said, like Dave Thomas. Scripted.
Or, maybe not, but he is the inventor of the product, and came along way on his own enthusiasm, motivating others along the way.
Just not able to man the helm.
And, the infamous magazine article, certainly worthy of rebuttal.
But, I do hope the new CEO will present a serious, professional, face and stay clear of the small stuff.
I still like JR, I hope he remains pertinent and somewhat visible, perhaps tempered. He can be a good spokesperson, but somewhat scripted would be in everyone's interest I think, i.e. Dave Thomas, Colonel Sanders, Orville Redenbacher, etc.
November61 (CL),
What did you mean about beans cooking?
Something more than just heating up in the spring temperature in those storage bags?
dh
<<Posted by: November61
In reply to: None Date:5/11/2007 3:02:42 PM
Post # 42616 of 42727
The soybeans are cooking.
Personal Target 2 bucks by Christmas.
CL>>
If Ron in Conn is a USSE investor, has a trucking firm, and buying some USSE fuel, I'd have to say it only stands to reason, and was inevitable.
Surely some of the investors here would have the ability to test the fuel and would have an economic incentive to try it to reduce thier costs. If so, and it works out great, then that may be how the company can get a good start, as the product is tried and hopefully desired.
I guess a "Ron" might want to keep it a secret for competitive reasons, but, probably not, because it would be to his advantage to have USSE reactors built up there. And, that would only come with adeqaute sales potential.
So, if I had a trucking company, and could save fuel cost with USSE, I would likely spread the word. Will be interesting to see.
IMO
<<The soybeans are cooking.>>
The plant at Natchez has gone into production phase?
I agree.. when everyone realizes the ball game is over they all try get through those small doorways, all at the same time. Some have to wait and then get stuck in the parking lot too.
Give us something real and credible, a reason to want to believe a great product can make it to a real business under your direction. This is real simple, sell the product, or show us you can sell the product. The pie in the sky days are over.
It's JR's company and he is due the appropriate respect. But if investor sentiment means anything to USSE I hope they'll step up now. If this was a like a poker game, and JR was betting like he's got a royal flush, then the betting is over and it's time to lay out the cards. Hope it wasn't a bluff.
We do know the difference between cleverly worded, but meaningless, pep talks. Try credibile, substantial, reasonable, information. Name some believable customers. And, it's time to drop the "look what we're doing from my garage" impression. Sophistication. Hire someone if you need to, but make sure they will actually add value, a real professional who knows how to make a presentation, and how to present this apparent potential world changing product. You can still call the shots, he works for you.
The twinkle in the eye and the big confident smile will only take us so far, it's time for the proof.
Additional shares in my account, TDAmeritrade. Just checked.
Since they require the certs to be in hand, I assume it is a done deal. Additional shares for all that were bought before and after 12/1.
The split\divy is fine I guess, but wish I ALSO had the promised SSTP shares.
Ameritrade may the real test of exactly how this is going to work. In line with what was posted today, I was told by them yesterday that they do not post shares in your account until the actual paper is in their hands. Said they had been burned too many times before.
So, I guess you can assume that if you see it in an Ameritrade account, it's for real.
Mine too.
November,
Pictures - my guess they just took whatever was on the memory card and loaded straight to the website. Editing would have been nice. But I appreciate no "white-washing".
Leaking(?) roof- I noticed that too, it may be that some part of one of the buildings roofs is leaking, hopefully can be easily fixed if so. It seems it was raining that day.
But some of the other wide open spaces looked mostly clean and perhaps able to begin accepting reactors.
At this point, I'm not sure what Natchez is ready for. Do they have all the permits, other paperwork, customers, etc.?
Since Illinois is known to be ready for all that I think a lot of focus needs to go to how quick can we see production and sales from Illinois.
Actually, I would like to see some rough time frames for when meaningful sales and and income to USSE/SSTP may be expected. Then, watch to see if they meet those goals in any reasonable length of variation.
Of course, the abscence of such can be very telling too. I've put a lot of faith in this right now, and I understand that cogs run slow, but these cogs need to be evident. Freeus was a cog, now what shuold come after building a reactor that reports to produce 6000 gal (est) of biofeul a day?
The business models are in place, let's move on!
After looking at the Illinois photos, it appears there's plenty of room for reactors.
I guess that space could just be used to store bags of beans, but I have to think, that surely there will be reactors built in the existing buildings.
So, IMO, a good PR now would give some guidance on the near term plans.
1.) Are reactor parts on their way to Illinois?
2.) Time line to get the first round up and running?
3.) How many tubes in first round?
4.) What approximate time frame (qtr)to expect first revenues from Illinois to USSE/SSTP?
Granted, It appears that some work needs to be done to spruce the existing buildings up a bit, but looks like a lot of wide open space for reactors now.
I'm still concerned about divy issues too, but to me, this is what will drive us next.
Signing out-
Well, I don't know that new shares even where issued, just wondering how it would work if they were.
Z -
Can your DD spy find out if D Radcliff can begin production in the existing buildings? Or do we have to wait until the new buildings are constructed.
Thanks BTW.
What about new shares issued after 12-1? How do you know if some or all of your post 12-1 shares came from the early pool?
Absolutely.