Following is my "armchair" analysis of where we're at today. Given the lack of any verifiable facts, it is entirely speculation and MUST NOT be used in plotting entry/exit points.
As you will see, I am being very conservative with the numbers. Even when hugely skewed in Ameritrade's favor - it suggests that only 47% of the shorted shares could possibly be covered to date.
During the panic sell-off last May, 1.57 billion shares were sold into the float in two day's time. I am going to call 1.519 billion of those shares "short shares," assuming that every legitimate PAIV shareholder sold out too. Therefore, 57 million legitimate shares are deducted from the two-day volume numbers.
So....
ASSUMED SHORT POSITION = 1,519,000,000 shares
I have omitted trading volume from May 25th through the 29, because I highly doubt AT would have rushed in to begin covering right away. IMO, that week only added to the depth of the short position as retail investors bought and sold with each other. Even though that's a reasonable assessment, I will throw those trades out, again erring in favor of the shorts.
So the "covering trades" count begins the day PAIV appeared on SHO (May 30) which certainly would have added pressure to begin covering.
When I add the total volume from May 30 until July 14, I come up with approximately 717 million total shares traded. I will further err in AT's favor by eliminating the retail investors entirely. Assume that EVERY share traded from from May 30 until July 14 was an Ameritrade covering trade. While we know that's not true, look what it tells us:
TOTAL POSSIBLE COVER TRADES TO DATE = 717,000,000 shares
Wow. That's less than HALF of the short position. When you consider that covering only 47% of the short shares caused PAIV to gain 920% (.005 - .051), it is a safe bet to say that covering the remaining shorts would bring us up another 1000% from Friday's close of .037. Therefore:
SHARE PRICE UPON FINAL COVER = $0.37 per share
If you take a more realistic position, and assume that only HALF of the trades since May 30 were cover trades, that gives us a figure of 358,000,000 shares covered to date. Personally, I bet AT has covered only 200 or so million thus far. However:
"MORE REALISTIC" COVER TRADES TO DATE = 358,000,000 shares
Now we're looking at only 23.5% of the position being covered as of July 14. Since PAIV gained 920% covering just a quarter of the shares, that means 75% more to go...for a total gain of 3,680%:
SHARE PRICE UPON COVER - "REALISTIC NUMBERS" = $1.06 per share
Again I stress these are not facts. But based on everything above, I do think we have a shot at passing $0.10 or even $0.18. Keep in mind AT will use every dirty trick in the book - shakeouts, new shorted shares, etc. Even assuming an average cover price of just $0.10 per share - that's over $150 million. I expect that AT will find a way to worm out of paying that kind of dough, either through dirty tricks, an extended timeframe, or both.
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