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Ever seen the departed? Maybe they were able to smoke out the rat :)
Sojo what’s the prediction for closing tomorrow going into the weekend? I would imagine $2+ pretty easily and then $2.40 going into Tuesday?
Agreed 100%. A HR of anything where the confidence intervals are below 1 would be statistically significant. A pvalue< 0.05 would be statistically significant
What’s also interesting to patients is long term survival odds, and dcvax will have that which no other therapy for GBM has in those regards. This would be clinically significant.
Safety is something that is incredibly important when considering a new therapy. This can not be understated. Well, we already know how the safety profile appears for dcvax, and that will play a huge role in the regulators decision making for approval
It’s almost permanent beach season, don’t forget to pack the sunscreen :)
Hoff- If the 10th is possibly more intriguing for her to talk about topline, then does that mean the company would release a PR prior to her speaking? And what would that mean for the journal, is it going to be published between now and then?
Regardless, we are very close.
It’s almost permanent beach season :)
Could there be more?
So in the case of muddy results, what do you think happens going forward?
Business weekly is a pretty large magazine with a large readership if I am not mistaken? This seems like a possible start to pretty large press
When I watched this I literally thought the same thing. Good catch AE, we’re very close my friend
No Larry Smith sightings this week?
Glioblastoma drug development summit- If Dr Bosch presents here, would that break the silent period? If not, are we expecting it to just be another presentation, but nothing mentioned at all about dcvax?
Trying to wrap my head around him presenting but not having anything in regards to dcvax
Bingo. I bet they have seen interim results and have a good idea of what that data is looking like by now. Merck knows too
You don’t notice the chop when your still on land. I wasn’t going to set sail at 2.50, Certainly not setting sail at .59. This only really provides me with the opportunity to build a bigger boat :)
I’ll see you out there in due time
Lykiri, Meirluc, alphapuppy etc. I want to call out all of our mathematically/statistically talented contributors:
1) Removing the placebo group, what can we expect as an mOS for the patients who received Dcvax early?
2) What would the p-value be comparing the above Dcvax mOS to the known historical mOS control groups that LL has presented?
I am grateful for this board and hopeful that in the very near future we won’t need to estimate these values :)
Who said anything about selling? ;)
I’d gladly take $10 per share after TLD and publication
Good post. When a made up timeframe gets floated around these boards, and then missed we end up losing value in share price.
It’s coming, it’s all coming and it’s going to be amazing for patients, science, shareholders and the company.
I agree
My thinking is that we may get TLD-Journal publication-updated long term survival patient data at SNO
Thoughts?
I remember knowing LL was presenting at SNO but was surprised (pleasantly) to see updated 3yr data. So she was listed somehow, I don’t recall and abstract however.
I know last year around the time of October we were aware of her plenary late breaking scheduled at SNO last year.
Plenary late breaking… let’s not forget that
So you think they would allow her to speak even though she hasn’t submitted anything? I have heard she has a good reputation there. I suppose it’s possible?
This data I expect to be quite earth shattering so it’s certainly possible SNO will make exception for data like this.
Great finds as usual Flipper. Add these to the recent lancet article and it seems as though they are speaking directly about DCVAX
Doc,
Thanks for the reply and I hope you aren’t too far off with these numbers. We and patients have been waiting patiently. It certainly feels like the ducks are aligning.
I give in though, what’s special about October 26? :)
TIA
Doc,
Do you have any timeline estimates for TLD?
October (%?)
November (%?)
December (%?)
1h 2022 (%?)
2h 2022 (%?)
Thanks!
Hi ae,
What makes you think they will tie the release to a conference? Wouldn’t the abstracts have to be submitted by now if they were to attend one of the remaining conferences this year?
I do believe we are waiting on a paper
Doc,
Your pretty convinced that Merck is ready to jump in eh? Seems legitimate to me, I guess time will tell.
With the external control buy in, this is huge, absolutely huge, anyone could be interested now. We’re basically privy to results, and the future has never looked brighter for NWBO and whoever owns the Dcvax patents.
I think this week we will see who else has been paying attention and wants a piece. That article could have been the start of things….
And the ability to expedite results for future trials and indications. This can not be understated. Approvals will come fast and furious, and that will be either detrimental or very valuable to big pharma.
Awesome find Lykiri! You did it again
Good post
Yep, something I have been tracking as well. The fact that it’s 104th is quite remarkable… especially as an interim, blinded paper. The fact is, this data is important to lots of people, not just investors.
I wonder what the next article will rank :)
Agreed 100%. Yes exactly, we will get to see how treatment patients compare to placebo as originally designed.
There is virtually no argument to the change in SAP, and it’s almost guaranteed that the FDA has been guiding them along, as they do with all companies.
Yeah, kinda weird huh?
I have a lot invested here and only post a few times a year (as I assume many readers do as well).
If anything, he has given me confidence in my investment with NWBO. A little common sense goes a long way
I assume this will be the course that they take. Companies do this all the time where they have an article published and then have follow up data reported at conferences.
They may announce TLD via a PR, then the article gets published most likely shortly after. They still have lots of other things they can announce such as Advent certification, Direct data, BLA submission status, partnerships?
No doubt though, there are exciting times ahead!
LL including the bullet point: “some clinical trials require collection and processing of tumor tissue”, is pretty telling.
She has not only seen the data but is the lead investigator preparing the paper. I highly doubt that LL would see a failed trial with bad data and even mention the requirement of collecting tumor tissue.
She was also very careful in giving her answer. She didn’t mention dcvax by name, but IMO it was strongly insinuated.
The way I take it, this is our most recent affirmation that the data is positive.
I would expect smart investors to catch on and take a long term position. It feels like we are close, very close. But hey, I am planning to hold for the long run and amass lots of wealth from this stock. Things are about to get fun :)
Just thinking out loud here:
Since last years ABTA presentation where LP says they are expecting to announce results, they have stated they are going to a major journal and conference, they have ramped up manufacturing, had LL give many multiple presentations, hired a nasdaq consultant, hired KP, become the largest sponsor for ABTA 2021, are presenting in ABTA. Things I doubt they would do after learning of a failed trial. And I probably missed some things?
Why 43 days Scotty?
Hi ATL, Would this be possible? Can the regulators have the TLD but not the public? Seems risky to me, hard to keep a leak from happening.
Can’t wait to learn of the data though, it’s going to be a great day!
So in your experienced opinion, ASCO is most likely the best venue to release TLD and further trial updated data?
Better than SNO, AACR or another conference, and better than publishing the trial data in a journal beforehand?
One would assume that LP would seek expert opinion on this. Perhaps this is the advice she was told back in November?
I know many on the board believe that the company will go the route of journal publication first. But of course, we are all making educated guesses, but I value your experience and opinion on this.
Yes, I’ve just recently had these thoughts myself Sojo.
10x on 1.60= $16
A BO of say $35 would look good for both parties
10x on $3= $30
A BO of $35 doesn’t look nearly as great for Nwbo and their shareholders
Either way, as long as they don’t close the beaches this year, beach season is right around the corner =)
That’s an older link, not today’s show.
I watched today’s show and I was pleasantly surprised myself with the interview, and the cognate mention at the end. They seemed very optimistic about little biotechs discovering big things in oncology, specifically cell therapies