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100K? So where's the news?
Sometimes I think this is the type of thing that got Globetel out of debt in the first place! So whacked. Aren't there SEC regulations against this?
I'm gonna go contrary here and guess 2.90 by next Friday. That will be the TA forming a bottom prior to official $ PR. The truth is, I need a good buying price.
I emailed David Leinwand and got this quick response:
>>>>>>>
We are representing Globetel in connection with the Internafta transaction. Any questions regarding the transaction should be directed to sibylle yakan 954-241-0590 syakan@globetel.net at GlobeTel.
David Leinwand
_____________________
David Leinwand
Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP
One Liberty Plaza
New York, New York 10006
Telephone: (212) 225-2838
Fax: (212) 225-3999
http://www.clearygottlieb.com
<<<<<<<
I suppose I should include my email to him:
>>>>>>>
Dear Mr. Leinwand,
I am currently a shareholder of GlobeTel, and I was informed that you are representing them for their Russian wireless contract with InterNafta. If I received an incorrect reference, please disregard, and I apologize. If not, is there any information that you can provide me about this representation, i.e. does it involve contract violations on either side, or is this strictly the advised legal procedure for a contract of this magnitude? Thanks. I appreciate your time and any information.
<<<<<<<
Has anyone contacted Cleary Gottlieb - Moscow office? I'm just wondering if there is any additional info we could get from them. I haven't seen them release anything about Globetel on their website.
Hey squ1dk1d,
Thanks for pointing out that stockcharts 3-year weekly chart with the 50MA(weekly) a week or two ago. I had already gotten out with my first 25% at 3.25, and today I had the preparation (and the courage) to completely get out at 3.11 because the delay did not catch me (completely) off guard. I'm still puzzled at how the trend seemed to "know" that the delay was coming out though, leading to this drop which fit the curve quite nicely. Strange. Long-term TA is more important than I thought. LOL
Re: squ1dk1d... to be fair, I think his cockiness is treated a little bit differently than someone who is optimistically cocky with their predictions for GTE. I got some good advice from squ1dk1d although I didn't agree with his assessment at the time and so far he's been pretty much right on. The 3-year weekly with 50 and 200 weekly MA's have helped me understand this trend right now more than I've understood many of the previous trends. I still don't think I understand how the long term trend can reach as low as 2.50 by next week though. I can see 2.50 in a month by following the slope. A week seems too soon for that much of a drop, unless it's very short lived. This slow, jagged drop fits the curves though. The question that I find hard to answer though is how can the long term trend plow bearishly through next week with such big news impending? Will we only see a short term spike if the $150 mil is shown? Is this going to be a dip, followed by a slow, gradual incline because FA takes more time to be noticed? I guess that's why I'm a noob though. Been in GTE for a year, but it's basically my first real trading experience.
Wow it does look almost exactly the same! I hope it follows up the same way afterwards. Nice observation.
Someone on the board called F&S about this a few weeks ago and was told the award would not be made public until 7:15 the day of the ceremony. I guess PR would not have happened yet then because Globetel doesn't even know yet. So, I guess the possibility that they will win it is just a rumor.
How much blood? lol...eom
Anyone predict a major PR before Jan. 31? This looks like typical pre-PR plummet, but it's moving faster than I would imagine for a week-long fall.
Thanks for the info squ1dk1d, eom.
Just a TA question here:
pps deviates from 200MA, what signals the turning point of the pps back towards the MA? Low volume? Also, how do you differentiate short-term turning points (temporary retraces) from long-term shifts in market sentiment?
I see possibility of price drop, because of the technical tendency of pps to pull back towards 200MA, and sentimentally this would make sense with a delay in word from Huff about $150 mil. However, I also see a considerable possibility of a delay in the price drop (allowing the MA to move up). This could be caused by anticipation of the exact date of a positive PR from Huff, and much more so, the positive sentimental price impact due to timely word from Huff about $150 mil. Price drop before Jan. 31 seems sentimentally unlikely IMO.
and if shorts line up with closed gap, they will have to bust through this same support without the help of a negative PR. Of course, manipulation gives everything a chance.
Gap close today would = strong support. eom
At the end of GTE article...
"At the time of publication, Seth Jayson had no positions in any company mentioned here. View his stock holdings and Fool profile here. France Telecom is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. Fool rules are here."
Hmm... I can't seem to find the FTE article though. Maybe I was imagining it.... LOL, I'll keep looking.
FTE vs. GTE.......
Notice the manipulation on the part of Seth Jayson. Extremely low volume - just like last time. The post happens 30 minutes before close, again, to get a reaction of fear from investors (which didn't happen, btw). He wants to manipulate, and my perspective is that Motley Fool has a shadier business-motive than any of the companies behind the stocks they bash.
Interestingly....
Quoted from the article:
"For another point of reference, consider that Europe's largest broadband provider, France Telecom (NYSE: FTE), has only 10 million Internet customers -- the number GlobeTel says it aims to get in just three years in Russia. Yet France Telecom operates in the affluent regions of Spain, the U.K., the Netherlands, and France, where, according to World Bank figures, people have at least two or three times the purchasing power of Russians."
Important notice: Motley Fool is also promoting France Telecom in another recent article.
Now at first, the reference to France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) in this paragraph seems to be used to dampen the possibility that Globetel can find 10 million customers in Russia. On closer look, his mention of purchasing power in Spain, U.K., and Netherlands identifies some large-scale wealth statistic, that may be completely irrelevant to the extension of internet services in Russia. There is no mention of WiMAX vs. phone/cable lines transmission, and the lack of availability of phone/cable lines in Russia, a much more relevant matter that would influence the number of WiMAX subscribers than average wealth in Russia relative to France/Neth/UK. There is no mention of whether or not France Telecom even offers WiMAX.
This is probably why. They are still in the early stages of testing, and foresee tough competition in France:
http://www.francetelecom.com/sirius/rd/en/ddm/en/technologies/ddm200406/techfiche3.php
This is starting to look like S.J. is attempting to degrade the competition of one of his own stocks by contrasting the overall financial resources of potential customer bases in each respective company's operating domain. Meanwhile he's stepping over the fact that FTE is lagging behind with their WiMAX advancements - a significant downfall. Promotion of FTE through bashing of GTE!!! We may have found his motive.
The match is on: FTE vs. GTE.
Basically the gist of his article is, "GTE confuses me, so I'm staying away from this stock, and so should you. Oh yeah, and blimps suck."
If TA suggests a bottom forming from dried up volume, I can see a run up happening before Jan. 31 due to investor anticipation, potentially followed by a run down (MM's) on Jan. 31, up until the $150 mil news comes out. Will this provide the bounce you are looking for?
daddybignose and starboy... I just swung 3.37 up to 3.76. My first attempt at swinging while using 20% of my lot. Too bad I barely swing enough shares to consistently make up for commissions!! That's slowly changing though. At least this one worked out for me. LOL
Now is this technically a gap up? I'm wondering how likely this is to retrace back down to 3.33...
Not sure how DirecTV would connect to rural areas that have been bypassed by phone and cable lines as quoted from the article. Satellites are way too high up. They'd have to post a LOT of WiMAX transmitters scattered throughout the region, and would still have serious line of sight issues. Apparently DirecTV doesn't really know either...
>>He didn't specify what technology would be used other than to say, "It's got to be something that can be upgraded and stay with public demand."
Good points in the letter, but I still see Seth Jayson as a vicious stock-basher with a huge audience, and I'd rather not see him get any fuel to bash GTE anymore, so maybe eliminating any of the condescending lines (i.e. the "thinking" one) would be a safe move.
Thanks for your opinions and advice wolfrun and lowtrade. I like the idea of holding a core and trading some smaller percentage. It seems that would give me more leverage after a major run or dip. I might dwell on these strategies more.
Also, lowtrade, I do sense the same artificiality to the hype around the $150M PR, since it is only a technicality that's residing in the shadows of the PR we received Dec 31st, and I also wondered if it would even be released in a PR at all. However, because the pps did not break $4 as I expected it should have on the Russia news, I looked very hard (perhaps too hard) to find why investors might still be hesitant. In Huff's retaliation PR he states the risks involved with the Russian deal, and one of them in particular makes the $150M seem more significant than I originally perceived it to be:
"-- Default Risk: GlobeTel has made every effort to assess the potential for default risk by the Russian Investors and, apart from its own comfort level based on more than a year of exposure to them and to numerous high-level Russian government officials, the risk appears quite low. However, this business assessment aside, it will be entirely evident, within the very immediate future, upon receipt of the first US$150 million installment, that the likelihood of any default is highly improbable."
So, this leads me to believe at least some of the hype around this anticipation. I'm not necessarily expecting a PR that says something crass like "Money's in the Bank for GTE!" but I might expect something more modest like "GTE begins work on Russian WiMAX network" since that is their next immediate step after receiving this money. All IMVVVHO though.
Sorry if this is straying from TA too much.
I held off on my buy this afternoon. It was mostly an instinct, but I think that comes from seeing a pattern of GTE falling during anticipation and unfortunately only climbing back to its original price come PR time. I fully expect this $150M to be much bigger than that though because of the impact on revenue, earnings, and general improvement of sentiment, so I'm sort of confused here, i.e. don't want to miss the ride. The dip happened big time in December, more importantly, it's the overall trend of the last 6 months, and it seems to go back further.
Has this been naked shorting? I could easily imagine a scenario where naked shorters bid the price down during anticipation with significantly sized bids to buy in, to cover the fact that all of their customers' artificial shares must be accounted for if the price goes way up and customer decides to sell. At least that's my hypothesis. I've only started learning about naked shorting just recently thanks to a post from a few days ago with a link to a presentation, but the idea of it angered me and made me want to figure out if GTE has been a victim of this.
On the other hand, GTE is only just now crossing into territory where they will be widely viewed as a profitable company, so perhaps the price has been ceilinged for so long because of an honest lack of demand, and this is when GTE finally shows us the $ and it finally breaks out. I've got shares, and I'm waiting to add, but I'm not letting myself fall into any traps here. Just thinking this through completely.
Thanks for the info docS. I'm planning on buying another 300 shares (a lot for me) and I'm absolutely torn on deciding between waiting to see if SP goes down and beating the $150M PR to the mark.
Thanks bilivit, I wonder if by WiFi capabilities, Huff means "WiFi style WiMAX," as described in that link then, because up to this point I had only heard WiFi used to describe moderately low-range, typical household wireless access points, i.e. up to 200 yards. Also, I wonder if the potentially competing WiMAX base stations in Russia are incapable of these low-frequency, "WiFi style" WiMAX transmissions that operate non-LOS. Apparently I was also incorrect in assuming that all laptop wireless cards are incapable of reading WiMAX directly, without a CPE.
The "black box" intrigues me.
My understanding is that the "black box" is a base station, which means it is located on some building somewhere in town, probably high up, and it transmits WiMAX for miles to each customer's CPE, which, in turn, delivers broadband to a home/office computer via a router or WiFi access point. Now Huff seems to pump up the fact that the "black box" has WiFi capability and DECT capability as well, as if this feature separates them from all other potential competitors. I can understand why DECT capability is significant, because anyone within the ~10 mile radius with a DECT phone can use it, but what is the significance of having WiFi on a WiMAX transmitter/receiver? WiMAX transmits and receives 10 miles and WiFi transmits and receives 200 yards max. I guess one small advantage is that there is no need for a CPE for someone near enough to the "black box" to access the WiFi signal, since most laptops' wireless cards don't read WiMAX directly, only WiFi. But a CPE and WiFi router placed somewhere in the vicinity of the "black box" solves that problem anyway, and the number of people within 200 yards of the box divided by the number of people within 10 miles of the box is such a small percentage, I don't see a significant benefit to that feature. Please explain if you think I'm misunderstanding something here.
WiMAX is a very new technology, and is only being made available to the public as of very recently. Anyone that pre-subscribed was most likely fully aware that the deployment of WiMAX networks would not happen overnight.
Answered my own question by reading the same Huff PR (I blame it on being too long)...
"Currently-available broadband and telephone services within the Russian Federation - invariably of lower quality and with fewer capabilities - typically cost a Russian subscriber between US$75 - US$100 per month."
Huff says that by aiming for a 10-30% market share, they will likely charge $35-$50 a month per subscriber. Someone who claimed to know prices for "internet" in Russia on the Yahoo board said $20/month was typical. Now, I'm guessing, this guy was not including phone, and possibly referring to internet service of even lesser quality than that which Huff referred to.
Question:
from the Russian details PR that Huff released:
"It is important to point out that GlobeTel Wireless is the only company in the market today that has designed a base station that incorporates WiFi, WiMax and DECT VoIP functions into one "black box". This proprietary system then provides all three features at a dramatically lower cost than the other WiMax-only products which are only just now beginning to enter
the market."
So WiMax and VoIP replace the need for cell/landline phone, and broadband internet. Is this the cost benefit Huff is claiming? In other words, cost of "black box" is less than cost of typical phone service + typical broadband (or maybe WiMax?) service.
Are there any explicit connections to Internafta here? Sorry if I missed a post before...
Can't wait for the knees and toes.
I'm starting to realize why no one is finding info regarding INTERNAFTA. I've searched google and found two pages that use the term "Internafta" and one seems to be in Czech and the other in Ukranian (?). One of them (in Czech) actually seems to refer to the company Internafta specifically and apparently has nothing to do with GTE's contract. I wonder if someone on this board has any insight as to why this page has this long list of companies, and what the code numbers are next to the company names. The other one just has internafta as part of the URL, and the text is all in what seems to be Ukranian.
Czech page:
http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:37ZVUPZP0rAJ:www.ariadna.cz/indexpg_LR-955.html+internafta&...
Other page:
http://www.internafta.ukrbiz.net/
Interestingly, I seem to have stumbled upon the term "InterNAFTA" in an article about how the internet, in its current state, is isolationist in that it projects purely North American views, similarly to NAFTA. That's all I've got.
MF couldn't have posted that article at a more opportunistic time. Volume was dead. Any amount of positive or negative sentiment would easily sway the price in that direction. Small end of day sell-off and nothing more imo. Real volume will paint the true picture.
I wouldn't panic. There was a 5 or 10 cent drop that cannot even be completely attributed to the article. Volume was still relatively low after the article release. Millions of shares are not going to change hands for the sake of a poorly written opinion column. His job is to write articles bashing stocks. It may even lead to positive reinforcement from Huff that will help the stock longer term.
Notice how vague his disclaimer is:
"At the time of publication, he had no positions in any company mentioned here, meaning he's NOT short GTE. Though he's thinking about it. "
At the time of publication? What about at the time of the release? Hmm... how about before the time of publication? I agree, he must have lost some dough shorting GTE, and is trying to make up for it now with his little pubs. Notice he doesn't mention the fact that GTE's 75% leap took place after a rise and a retrace of equivalent magnitude.
This $4 wall of resistance has been holding strong since the move to the AMEX. It's like a thick membrane that the pps can temporarily stretch, but never penetrate. Recently, the pps has tried chopping through it twice, and now it's getting out the saw. I don't know what it will take to pierce through it, maybe just some more time with this saw.
I'm not feeling a retrace. Yes, there is some doubt lingering over the contract and questions over the 4th quarter financials, but with the spike up after the last retrace, which happened without any warning, and such a huge impact PR fresh in everyone's minds, how can anyone in their right mind offer a price significantly below where it is right now? It's foolish, and quite honestly just dangerous. There is a reason the support has been so strong the last few days, and I don't see it changing short term.