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I disagree with the last point. Looks like this has reached a turnaround point, and I think it will move quicker than October/November in anticipation. Momentum indicators now mirror where we were at March/April 2016, when it started climbing before the surge in July.
He did mention that when he took over they were on the verge of bankruptcy however.
WRONG. Read the transcript.
Why does Bassam receive outrageous interest payments as the company's biggest creditor?
First of all, I am not a creditor of the company. I am not actually holding any debt for the company. I converted my line of credit in 2015 as $0.40 a share. I believe you are confusing me with the notes we had from the institutions, which carried high interest. I am not happy to pay interest, but being an OTC company, it is not always easy to raise money and take a nonconvertible debt to acquire assets. And this is what we did when we acquired the beyond human platform when we took the note that had 20% interest. And I have to say, I am happy we took that note because it is that platform that Beyond Human sales and marketing platform that while the turnaround platform for the company who took us from $750,000 in revenues in 2015 to close to $5 million in revenues in 2016. So, I am very happy that we did that and we achieved that goal.
Here's the transcript.
Innovus Pharmaceuticals' (INNV) Bassam Damaj on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript $INNV
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4098907
Has the transcript been posted anywhere yet?
Notice how NITE is no longer on the bid.
Will also say that those indicators haven't looked like this since last year.
Never claimed fact. That's why I said "looks like". Let's see how it pans out.
Aroon indicators would say there's big potential for next week comparing with trends from last year.
Anybody looking at the overlays vs. 2016? Looks like we're about to rip.
Assuming INNV hits the midpoint of their revenue guidance, and using ACRX as a comparable, doesn't it place INNV at around $0.45/share.
What about ACRX? $17M annual revenue, 45M S/O, trades at $2.10/share.
Your multiples aren't based on comparables. What are the multiples for companies with actual comparable revenue streams/business models?
Boo, what filing are you referring to?
I think the two most newsworthy items would be the original ANDA getting approved (obvi) and the results of the Viagra study. If the results of the Viagra study are known, I'd say this week would be a hell of a time to release them with the volume we are starting to see. Builds momentum heading into the shareholder meeting as well.
Any bets on the week ahead?
Spot on. We all work hard for our money. Expectation is that INNV does too.
Wow. Look at this late day push.
No source but thinking about it from West-Ward's POV. They have a vested interest to maximize their own value, which means limiting cannibalization to other branding/channels. I thought someone from the YB had confirmed with Kevin from Chesapeake that the original ANDA would be incremental to the $10-15M noted on the call.
Good points...wondering how you're arriving at $30M being aggressive with approval of the original ANDA. The West-Ward ANDA is to give INNV $10-15M first year. Keep in mind that $10-15M is a gross understatement of Fluticare penetration versus a scenario where the original ANDA is approved. West-Ward wants to optimize product mix to avoid cannibalizing sales of store brand fluticasone propionate. That means they have to cap their sales to INNV. With the original ANDA being approved, INNV no longer faces the same supply constraints, and we get to see how well Fluticare brand equity truly transfers over from prescription.
If Hikma bought the offering, I think Monday morning pre-market would be an awfully good time to disclose that info.
Would add that based on the favorable terms with West-Ward indicated during the call, it's pretty clear that Hikma bought the offering. No?
While he doesn't give guidance on additional revenues, it does seem like he's improving the outlook by indicating that they could be profitable anywhere between $10M and $15M in revenue. With previous reports only indicating that they'd be profitable exiting the year with $15M. Says a lot about what they are doing to manage costs.
Better yet...show me where he says $15M before Fluticare isn't still in the plan.
Makes sense on Q4 ad rates but would expect expanded distribution/product range between now and then to offset and stabilize that quarter over quarter growth slope. My expectations as an investor.
I'll let the good folks at INNV make the money for me. Figure I've earned that right. I work hard for my it already, and I'll let them do the work with what I've invested. Have enough confidence that they are.
Can't wait to see the shorts scamper when Mr. Market finds out the West-Ward deal is only a min purchase that at least at this point doesn't appear to require an additional offering. I think an offering was priced in.
Agree it should go much higher. I'm only considering consistent 30% sales growth each quarter, consistent with what we did last quarter, plus the $1.94M for SK. No Fluticare.
Why the anticipated dip for Q4 for existing products?
That $10-15M is the revenue range in which they project to be profitable, not the range of expected revenues. That's my impression. Read the transcript...plain as day. What did you expect the revenue growth to be from Q416? I don't remember Damaj ever giving a quarterly projection. If they maintain the same quarterly growth, they're on pace to meet $15M, even without Fluticare....exactly what Damaj said, right? Just because Honey said it should be $2.65M doesn't mean that was ever in the cards...let's be honest. You've gotta like what they're doing to manage cost too. Clearly they're not burning through cash, and marketing/SG&A is decreasing significantly in proportion to revenue generated...clearly a function of the distribution channels they've developed. And I think they low-balled the revenues for Fluticare ramp....1-1.5% market penetration seems like a very low estimate for penetrating a $1B market where they have the highest prescription brand equity....even if that's to be anticipated due to a slower marketing/distribution ramp, that's still all icing on the cake for 2017 because they're on the trajectory for $15M regardless.
Based on what? Aside from the unanticipated delay in the original ANDA, which was known before yesterday's call by the way, what are they doing that wasn't advertised? Conserving cash, significant reduction in operating expenses, on pace for $15M revenue (30% increase from last quarter, and Damaj indicates they'll be profitable within the $10-15M mark), and the most telling of all...that they gave up nothing additional for the West-Ward deal. On the last point alone, shorty should run for cover.
Was the $15M to include the S Korea deal or not? If not, where/when did they indicate that it didn't include it? If they maintain the 30% revenue growth each quarter through the end of the year and tack on the S Korea deal, that brings them to $15.4M.
Can't see the forest through the trees, huh? You're the one who just verified that the Zestra ratings on the GMarket website were bad. Those are ratings of the seller, not of the product. Korean eBay is my impression. And I don't know what you're looking at, but after conducting the search for Zestra, the one entry with a meaningful sample size (50 reviews) shows a 4.9 out of 5 rating.
Then why the run up last summer in anticipation? I think the market is waiting for feedback on what the terms were with West-Ward and is now skeptical on what the Novalere acquisition really gave us.
You're assuming no repeated usage then, right?
Bean - Interesting. Would INNV have had to report this by now if this is Fluti?
Looks like Akorn offers a fluticasone propionate spray already.
http://akorn.com/prod_detail.php?ndc=50383-700-16
Here's the current trademark status. Notice the Published for Opposition date.
https://www.trademarks411.com/marks/87262502-fluticare
I like the fact that marketing is ramping up for existing product but still believe the fate of the company rests on Fluticare approval. Didn't INNV indicate that it's their manufacturer who's in touch with the FDA regarding approval? Seems to me that if that's the case, then we would want a manufacturer who's experienced in that kind of correspondence. If this company is manufacturing the Fluticare topicals, isn't it reasonable to believe they'd be manufacturing the spray as well? Looking at the website, it looks like they've submitted 150 ANDAs to date.
Yes, I realize we bought the spray. I say "we" in the inclusive sense because I'm long. Was more implying that this Hetero HC could be the manufacturer if they're manufacturing the topicals.