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GKPRF
Pre-released a q-o-q revenue increase of 57%. Stock up 14%.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gatekeeper-reports-preliminary-fiscal-q4-201500167.html
ETCC (I have this in my notes, not sure if I have any mistakes)
3rd Qtr backlog
$114 million
2nd Qtr backlog
$111 million
1st Qtr backlog
$100 million
2023 Annual Report backlog
$104 million
2022 Annual Report backlog
$19.3 million
2021 Annual Report backlog
$16 million
2020 Annual Report backlog
$42 million
2019 $48M revenues $.25 earnings GP $17.3M GP %36
2020 $40M revenues $(.21) earnings GP $8.9M GP %22
2021 $16M revenues $(.43) earnings GP $1.2M GP %07
2022 $19M revenues $.16 earnings GP $4.3M GP %23
2023 $26M revenues $(.05) earnings GP $6.5M GP %25
2023 Q1 revenue $10M $.02 earnings
PDEX has gone up alot. I also was looking for news or recent investor presentations they've made and didn't see anything. I haven't sold mine yet, but might trim it. I probably won't sell it completely out of FOMO. I've seen multiple cases of companies expanding capacity and going through a rough patch only to come out and really start putting up some nice numbers. I sold SCIA while they were building out their extra capacity only to have them go up 3-4x on me. I reread the last press release and the CEO talked about focusing on sales and reducing inventory. So I'll probably trim and still hold some.
They have more PRs lately. Does this portend something good?
TSSI Gomes latest take (what probably drove the price at the end of the day) (starts around 12m40s)
Glad to see you back, KiK!
I listened to the CC. They had problems with candy melting in the heat so they paused shipments to retailers without climate controlled warehouses and trucks until it cools off to protect their brand. Shipments will be paused for 2 more weeks until it cools off. They will still be building inventory and the demand is still there, and most retailers still have candy. So maybe it hurts Q3 and spikes Q4.
TSSI had a great quarter. They did .06 EPS. They said on the call that they have more than doubled their workforce, and are still looking to increase capacity and maybe move to a data center with more electricity because they are building out dense AI racks for their customers. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tss-inc-reports-strong-second-200000561.html
How did this guy know OPXS earnings were today?
I didn't see a press release where they said earnings would be released today, but he knew, was it just a good guess?$OPXS ER tomorrow. Took advantage of the recent drawdown to really beef up this tiny position. Expecting solid numbers tomorrow
— Himmy Junior (@HimmyJTheGoat) August 12, 2024
TSSI story that Gomes has been pushing. They report tomorrow if interested.
I traded some ESOA and BKTI with you. Thanks for the alerts. Moved that money into GEODF that seems to have a forward PE of 5.
KLYG .1650 +37%. Another profitable quarter for them. Revenue up +70% sequentially.
GEODF (1.97) had a good quarter. .10 vs .04 eps. rev up 26%
I've tried SOWG candy. I tried the sour skittles and the regular skittles. The sour is super sour, much more sour than just the plain skittles because without the moisture it is more concentrated. So I see that as a differentiator. The texture is crunchy, so there will be those who prefer crunchy to sticky. I also tried the rainbow bites which were flavorful and not overly sour. I almost bought some crunchy bears, but they didn't look that appetizing in the bag (there is a clear window so you can see what they look like). In the 5 Belows I've been to they were almost out of the rainbow bites and sour bites, but the peach was still around. I've also seen the candy at the grocery store and at an asian supermarket and at a toy store. They have already been in some Targets, and are expanding. With their large lineup of retail partnerships in the works I believe they will have no problem selling all their planned production ramp-up through the end of the year. I haven't seen demand softening yet. I think they will handily beat the aggressive expectations they have set for themselves just like they did last quarter. I'm not sure when the freeze dried candy space will be saturated.
PDEX. I own some
They had unrealized losses of $1.2M from their MGRM (Monogram Orthopaedics Inc) investment last time. Looks like MGRM is up ~20% from where they were last quarter, so that would give them a boost this time.
Management said "We are tracking toward another record fiscal year from a revenue perspective" last quarter, so the overall outlook was positive. They had increased capacity so that could kick in at some point.
I am finding Sow Good everywhere now. At my local HEB (predominant grocery store chain in Texas) there is a large Sow Good display. I also found it at an asian supermarket in the checkout aisle. I think a large grocery store display display will be huge for them. The fact that I found it an asian supermarket tells me they have found there way into a distributor that is sending it into smaller mom and pops. I know they are already at Target and Big Lots. Up to now they have been mostly a Five Below story. I think the distribution expansion is happening much quicker than expected/estimated.
ALAR The oxylabs news it seems is pressuring the stock. But the differentiator with ALAR is the AI scraping piece, oxylabs is just adding cheap static ips. Most of the time you want a rotating ip for scraping. Price drop seems unwarranted on that reasoning. I added some.
I went to a Five Below and grabbed a bag of Sour Spheres to try. They have a very powerful sour flavor. They're not something I would try again, but my teenagers liked them. Though I might be interested in the freeze dried cookies. The Rainbow Bites were out of stock, I believe because they are popular. There was alot of the peach flavor left, probably not many people want that flavor. The Sweet Spheres had only one bag left, so that is probably next most popular to the Rainbow Bites. The display was messy but it was near the middle of the store.
I find value in the contest. No contest is perfect. I think SSKILLZ1 moved to a contest with some limited trading because that is how many on the board invest and maybe they wouldn't participate if they couldn't trade, or maybe it's just the way he invests. And since he does all the work I'm happy with whatever contest he comes up with (thank you SSKILLZ1).
I see names in the contest that I rarely see on the board, and they are complete with entry and exit times (which you don't get on the board most of the time)
And in that light here is some contest meta-analysis I will share that I did a few contests back (ending with contest 16). There is no one way to do ordinal ranking so take it with a grain of salt. You can also see I didn't fix all the duplicates in the data. I may have made some other errors. I think I did an average placement.
Valuemind - you score near the top of the list because you did well in the 2 contests you participated in, so I take a good look at your names (and I'm glad I had some overlap with you on this contest).
I see you also came in near the top on contest 19, so you would still be near the top if I updated it - to me that's quite a feat. The more contests one participates in, the harder it is to stay at the top.
KiK is the uber rockstar.
name contest_count rank/rank_max_avg
NOVICETRADER 2 0.06
KNOWLEDGE IS KING 1 0.12
UNEZ2 1 0.16
ABH3VT 1 0.16
KNOWLEDGEISKING 15 0.21
BLADERUNNER1717 3 0.22
VALUEMIND 2 0.23
AVANDALAY05 2 0.26
MR SHEEP 1 0.26
JDC 7 0.31
SWICK984 11 0.31
MR SHEEP (W/O CASH) 2 0.32
HWEB2 16 0.33
TEOMAX 3 0.34
TEOMAX 1 0.35
MUDTURTLE 1 0.36
ZENVESTING 13 0.36
ST TRADER 2 0.37
HITEX 13 0.37
SSKILLZ1 16 0.38
DR. AIRTIME 8 0.39
ROSTERMAN 5 0.40
ECOBLOT 9 0.41
MR. SHEEP (W/O Cash) 2 0.41
CPTMATT 9 0.41
LISG 1 0.42
OTCBARGAINS 12 0.43
WADEGARRET 15 0.43
CLIFFVB 8 0.44
GHMM 4 0.45
BULLNBEAR52 16 0.45
MASTERBLASTR 13 0.46
CLEVERROX 2 0.46
NORTH40000 12 0.47
BOBWINS 1 0.47
DMMM 5 0.47
RESEARCHER59 16 0.47
HARDCORE 10 0.48
TIKA1 10 0.48
GREENACCOUNTINGBEEN 3 0.48
LINUSPOP 14 0.48
E-ORE 15 0.50
CHECKMATE28 9 0.50
BOBKUBECCA 7 0.50
3XBUBU 8 0.50
NATSTOCKS 5 0.50
BEIGLEDOG 4 0.51
BOBKUBECKA 2 0.51
URANIUM 11 0.52
GISTHEMAN 10 0.52
MR SHEEP 1 0.53
ROCKETEER357 16 0.53
NSOMNIYAK 16 0.53
EZ2 12 0.54
RRAT02 1 0.54
OBRIEN 5 0.54
WORTHYLION 14 0.54
MR. SHEEP 14 0.54
INSIDERBR 5 0.54
MR. SHEEP (W/O CASH) 9 0.54
CARTONET 7 0.54
RADO 7 0.55
WYOBUFORD 8 0.55
BOBWINS 15 0.55
MIKEO56 3 0.55
BBOTCS 15 0.55
YIELDDUDE 8 0.56
STARKD748 2 0.56
GILEAD23 1 0.56
BRUINSFAN4EVER 1 0.56
STEVENRISK 12 0.56
STEVESCHIETS 12 0.56
STOCKS4JOHN 5 0.57
WADEGAARET 1 0.57
DIGITECH 14 0.57
JASONAK 4 0.58
RAWNOC 2 0.58
BLACKCAT 15 0.58
MICK 2 0.58
VALUE1008 15 0.59
LARRYBAZ 3 0.59
2MORROWSGAINS 10 0.59
STEVE SCHIETS 3 0.59
SEMINOLE RED 16 0.59
NORWEGER1979 4 0.60
TWTYBRD 2 0.60
GOLD80302 12 0.61
SWANLINBAR 4 0.61
RONPOPEIL 1 0.62
HOMERROMER 2 0.63
MICHAM2012 6 0.63
AUGUSTAFRIENDS 4 0.63
DEADJIM 5 0.65
SQUINTZ76 1 0.65
WILDBILLY 3 0.65
MIKEDDKING 1 0.68
MRFENCE 1 0.68
ECON STUDENT 3 0.69
NELSON1234 1 0.70
JB3729 7 0.71
THEFASTONE 5 0.72
STOCKPEEKER 1 0.72
ROCKETRED 1 0.74
STOCK_OBSERVER_77 2 0.75
HAWKEYE_TT 12 0.77
10BAGGER 2 0.78
TRENT BLAIR 2 0.78
HAWKEYE_ TT 1 0.79
STEVECHIETS 1 0.79
KIPP440 1 0.81
STOCKMASTERJGV 1 0.83
ROGUEDOLPHIN 1 0.86
STEELEDGE 5 0.86
SWAMPBOOTS 3 0.90
BRUINFAN4EVER 1 0.92
RNSIDERSBUYING 1 0.92
MALC STONE 3 0.93
FADE 1 0.94
BOB STOCKS 1 0.96
They are cutting the company to the bone.
I grabbed a small few around $1.33 which I've now sold.
SOWG ($15.76) had a nice day today after raising money at $10. Seems like things are going very well. They plan to move up from their current production capacity of 4.5 million units to 30 million units by yearend and moving into a bunch of new retailers.
I own SOWG. There is some more research here: https://www.trickleresearch.com/sowgoodinc/ I also have the concern that freeze dried candy is faddish, but according to their results it is still on the rise and not played out. They did enrich themselves somewhat recently with options. They have had some successful businesses already from what I understand. This was just an idea they came up with during COVID. They say they built a company to freeze dry extra produce to get extra life out existing produce that gets thrown away. They were in the right place at the right time for this freeze dried candy explosion to catch fire. If you look at google trends the search term died down, but according their results the demand is not met yet.
You can meet their family on their first few videos on their Youtube channel and make your own assessment.
https://www.youtube.com/@sowgood5390/videos
These guys show all the gains in the market come from holding overnight.
https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/overnight-trading/
So that would make day-trading a zero sum game.
Thanks gilead32, great quotes. I sold for now.
I bought some ZYXI on that news, but I got off the train around $9.50. They might still have more good news if they sell a piece of the company, but I'm not sure if it will happen.
Wow, what a reversal - market tanked almost 2% in 30 minutes.
I don't know, but my WAG is stock stays around where it is until the uplist happens. I don't think there is any cash in that SPAC, just a cheap and quick way to get on Nasdaq. Management already knew about this deal so they may have sandbagged the numbers the last quarter so they could ensure a good quarter near when they get to the Nasdaq. A company showing decent numbers on the Nasdaq I'm guessing gets a higher P/E than the current 4, maybe a 7? The $176M pro-forma number is just an application of a higher 14-15 P/E, which isn't that unreasonable, but still a make believe number they just pulled out of a hat (they probably need to pretend they found alot of value to protect themselves legally). So the value here is whatever P/E you think VASO can get on the Nas. I'm probably wrong.
Happy Thanksgiving!
VASO (0.2319) -27%. getting punished on lower revenue and income numbers.
The Unicorn singalong backpack on Amazon is selling well, has 4.5 stars. But notice the Panda backpack is half the price. So it's all about the attractiveness of the stuffed animal in the backpack. I think this bodes well for an Elmo singalong backpack. I don't know if Sesame Street will be ready in time for Christmas.
MICS. I think they'll likely have another poor quarter. But if they can get their Sesame Street line out for Christmas then they'll probably have a big quarter upcoming. This product is selling really well and with good reviews with a rainbow unicorn. https://www.amazon.com/Singing-Machine-Portable-Karaoke-Machine-Kids-Microphone/dp/B09M23NY5N
What kid isn't going to want the Elmo backpack that you sing into. When they were first selling their Carpool Karaoke it sold really well until the newness wore off. When I checked maybe a month ago at my Walmart they didn't have any Singing Machine Sesame Street products, and their section of the Walmart display wasn't well stocked, so I'm not sure when or if they will be sending out shipments, but I would guess this quarter won't be great. I listened to the conference call and the CEO made it sound like the retailers will be buying their products this year. I have no position.
GEODF, FWIW Mark Gomes knew this was going to be a stinker of a quarter beforehand, and said he likes it, but he thought the bad quarter was already priced in, apparently it wasn't.
ZYXI now looking to evaluate strategic alternatives.
I bought some PDEX off of your original alert. That backlog looks great. And they can stop spending money on preparations for the new building. Judging from that backlog, someone on the salesforce is able to sell . Also, if you look at their addressable market slide, they have a long pipeline of new products they can go after with basically the same technology repurposing for different body parts. I had been waiting for their buildout to be over. It seems stocks always slide during a capacity buildout. I got tired of SCIA at around $1 as they were building out capacity, before it went over $4. The interviewer on this call was awful and had no idea about the company. Earlier in June Stock Day podcast Van Kirk was saying they had new products launching soon, and I don't think any have launched yet. In their 10K it says the ENT shaver should be launched soon 4Q 2023. With the prototyping they do for customers, I think they have some paid-for R&D.
There is a ~50 year cycle in interests rates historically, so I would think that interest rates continue on up slowly for a long time.
https://cyclesresearchinstitute.wordpress.com/2011/05/24/kondratieff-cycles-and-long-term-interest-rates/