Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Market would be closed, or halted, when such announcements are made. You will have a window to change or cancel your odre before trading resumes.
A lot of us- from $3 avg to 17 with tens of thousands of shares are still AVXL millionaires and expecting that to xxx times from where we are today. Ask the question again in a few months.
“No, options like this are not worthless. An outstanding option has intrinsic value separate from any strike price, ITM or OTM. They have a very real value that can be calculated using Black-Scholes and an adjustment term for the contingency element.
If you don't think this is true, try to find some free options and, hey, grab some for your friends. And check our Q3 10Q, you'll see a charge for the "worthless" options.”
Not what I am taking about, underwater options are worthless to the option holder.
exercise them?
Underwater stock options have an exercise price which is greater than the market price of the underlying stock. For example, you may have options with an exercise price of $10 a share while the stock is trading at $8 a share.
For obvious reasons, you do not want to exercise underwater stock options, as you would being paying more for the shares than their current market price, and the exercise itself would not generate any tax loss that you could apply against other income.
Only in extremely rare situations might you purchase stock at a price that is greater than its fair market value.
Example: Your company is privately held, so you can't buy its stock in the open market, but you believe the purchase/exercise price will turn out to be much lower than the stock price will eventually be if the company is acquired or goes public. That is a big risk.
If the strike price (right to buy) is 18, the share price has to rise above 18 to be worth anything. Based on today’s market reaction I hold my believe that the market views the action as bullish. Time will tell how it works out in the long run.
One of us will be right. I bet on me.
Option at $18 strike are worth $0 as of today. What this signals to the market is that there is a good level of confidence that they expect results that will drive the PPS to rise significantly to make it worthwhile for the key players to stay in the game and work hard to achieve key milestones. They know a lot more than we do. The insignificant dilution means nothing if/when MC is 5-10 times what it is now. The timing is also very telling, news will follow, IMHO.
There is an answer for those tired of waiting, sell and buy companies with better CEOs and no cabal on their tail. Nobody owes anybody here anything.
Not a bad strategy you have. I also expect PPS to be much higher, in the 100’s with decent results. Selling some in the 50s is my beginning exit point, some at 70, 90, 110 and 130, will give me enough that I will not spend it all in my lifetime. While I already enjoy a very comfortable life and do indulge my family in some not too extravagant luxuries, I remind my self that material wealth is only part of the equation to achieve happiness. Doing good for others less privileged can be as rewarding.
I consider you one of the honest contributors on this board. Sounds like you are on good footing to achieve financial success. As you have said, you are investing what you could afford to lose, as nothing is for sure, especially in bio investing. Like you, I do feel very comfortable about Anavex.
Salud, dinero y amor, y tiempo para disfrutarlos.
I kick my self for not buying google, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Nvidia, etc. etc. when they were in their teens….Oh, wait a minute, I did own all of those but, with the exception of Apple which I still hold, I just sold them way too early. Not making that move with AVXL.
My Anavex exit strategy is to sell 10k shares starting at 50, this will represent ~5 times return from total invested, sales of 10k shares there after for every 20 point rise in between for a total divestiture of 50k shares. The remaining 30k share balance will be left to my heirs and I expect they will be able to pass some to their heirs as Anavex enters the realm of those companies mentioned at the beginning of this message. I expect the time line to execute the first part of my exit to be within the next 3 years. Hopefully the 2nd part will not complete for another 20 or so years, or perhaps longer based on 1 daily capsule of A-273 starting in 2023.
If this sounds like bragging let me assure you, that is not my intent. Just providing some food for though as I believe every investment we make should have some sort of strategy behind it. holding till death being a valid one. Complaining about $ava and other higher PPS stocks not a good one.
All BS.
Excellent Fireman!!
Good for you. 15 would be even better.
He is not unhappy, he is just peeved
Nothing personal. Are you not peeved? Seems that way, peeved that $ava is doing great, peeved that Anavex is not xx billion, peeved… if the glove fits.
He is just peeved.
Tom, let’s go for a push down to 10 while we are throwing numbers at the wall. With a range of 10 to 25 we can’t go wrong…or maybe it will go down to penny land or way over 30. My bet is on the latter.
Yes we are. Sell and invest in $ava.
Same here. I think full of shirts.
I don’t understand the point of posting about Sava being a higher PPS or not possibly being more valuable than Anavex, fewer trials, etc. Don’t be jealous, invest in Sava and go post on that board. In other words, put your money where your mouth is, or….
Jab, more pathetic please.-:)
“To all those "instant" millionaires....welcome to the club.
Now YOUR responsibility is to keep it. Welcome to THAT club, also.”
While I am not in the “instant” millionaires, not the 1st. $MM and hopefully not the last, I do appreciate the sentiment of welcoming us to the club of fine cigars, beverage of choice and other indulgences the privileged enjoy as a matter of fact.
I agree with you about the responsibility of keeping it/growing it, often harder to do than making it, I would add to it helping others who have not been dealt as good a hand as some of us have. I believe in the karma of philanthropy; those who practice it are usually rewarded with spiritual and and more material wealth.
One last thought, let’s remain humble because tomorrow is not a given. Family and good friends can be.
Cheers!
You make an excellent point about the risk profile. Rett and PDD alone fully support PPS in the 40-50 range. With the potential of the many other indications being targeted , AD being the mother lode, the over 200-1000 is no longer a pipe dream.
Cheers!
Congrats fellow (long-time) loooongs. It has been a tough ride over the past ~7+ years for many of us but we have finally made it with much more to come. On top of the financial windfall, we should be proud to be pioneers in supporting a company that has the potential to do so much for the well being of humankind.
For potential new investors, I am highly confident that even more new multimillionaires will be minted by our great company, Anavex Life Sciences. Get onboard as soon as you can afford it.
Congrats, congrats, congrats!!!!
This may have been already posted. For who missed it:
https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tptp2021-56851/
Tom Bishop specializes in uncovering under-the-radar opportunities in small cap stocks. His Top Pick for 2021, Anavex (AVXL), is up 400% so far this year, making this the #1 performing stock out of 122 investment ideas in our 2021 Top Picks report. Here's a mid-year update on the stock from the editor of BI Research.
Anavex's lead compound Anavex 2-73 (A2-73, oral) is in clinical trials for Alzheimer’s disease (just finished over-enrollment of a phase 2b/3, 450-patient, 48-week clinical trial after very encouraging long term results from the phase 2a trial, see graphic below); Parkinson’s disease dementia (just finished a successful Phase 2 trial, also supportive for Alzheimer’s, with more data due out shortly); and Rett syndrome (for which it has three Rett trials in various stages with encouraging clinical data so far, and more due out shortly).
Encouragingly, A2-73 with its upstream Sigma-1 receptor activation approach (rather than anti-amyloid plaque approach that has failed so often) has consistently demonstrated positive and statistically significant results across this wide range of neurological diseases, which indicates that the oral drug appears to work and is clearly able to cross the blood/brain barrier.
“Data suggests [and numerous articles in medical journals confirm, for example see the Anavex press release dated 6/14] that activation of SIGMAR1 results in the restoration of complete housekeeping function within the body and is pivotal to restoring neural cell homeostasis and promoting neuroplasticity.”
In other words, Sigma-1 works further upstream from the problem and can be likened to the brain’s janitor, which in his later years gets lazy and doesn’t clean up the amyloid plaque and such that can clog the brain. It’s called autophagy — “the body's way of cleaning out damaged cells, in order to regenerate newer, healthier cells.”
Anavex 2-73 activates the janitor to get out there and keep up with his house cleaning. In addition, through genomic analysis the Company has identified a biomarker that 80% of people have which when present increases the efficacy of A2-73 vs. the other 20%.
While Rett may get to the finish line first due to shorter trial periods, Alzheimer’s is the most exciting indication based on the magnitude of this unmet medical need and the data so far.
For just one example, from the extended phase 2a trial based on patients on the high dose of A2-73, that have continued to take the drug for at least three years, they saw almost no decline in MMSE and ADL scores, while those on the lower dose (which essentially acted as a placebo because it hardly worked at that dosage) saw the decline in scores that Alzheimer’s patients typically see (the red line).
But a graph is worth a thousand words (note that the p-values are extraordinarily significant, where <=0.05 is considered significant by the FDA).
anavex
There is plenty of anecdotal evidence as well — an artist who was able to return to painting, a guy who was able to play golf again, the pianist who resumed playing and the grumpy couch potato who started playing with his grandkids again and even went into a TV station to give a very lucid and even humorous interview. And at the end of the day, these are the real life results you really want to see.
An estimated 5.8 million Americans (and 50 million worldwide) currently suffer with Alzheimer’s disease which along with other dementias cost our nation an estimated $305 billion in 2020. Alzheimer’s is the third leading cause of death in the U.S. behind heart disease and cancer and the only one of the top 6 diseases in the U.S. where the death rate has risen, rather than declined.
As demonstrated by the instant $20 billion increase in the market cap of Biogen on the FDA’s controversial approval of its Alzheimer’s monthly infusion therapy drug on 6/7 (for which efficacy was so poor that most doubted the FDA would even approve it), a drug that works on Alzheimer’s is clearly a holy grail of medicine.
This also demonstrated how desperate patients, and ergo the FDA, were to get anything approved that might help these patients after nothing new was approved in almost 20 years. This approval was actually good news for Anavex because it indicates a lowering of the bar for approval.
And based on data so far investors believe A2-73 will be able to show much greater efficacy in any event, plus … A2-73 is an oral drug, so patients would likely flock to it, leaving Biogen’s monthly infusion therapy … a buggy whip.
As positive statistically significant data continues to come in from the various trials this year, the shares have almost quadrupled so far in 2021 to around $20. However, if $10 billion is a reasonable estimate for annual sales for an Alzheimer’s drug that actually works, and Anavex were to just trade at a very low 2 times sales (and Biogen’s recent $20 billion surge bears this out), and even assuming the share count rises another 42% to 100 million, this would equate to an AVXL share price of $200.
While more about the trial results can be found in a report we issued dated 3/10 (a link is at the bottom of our home page), one of my favorite more-anecdotal quotes is from an investigator involved in the ongoing Alzheimer’s trial who said simply, “It’s just so exciting to be part of a Alzheimer’s trial and to see what we are seeing in these patients.”
You see, Alzheimer’s patient scores only go in one direction (worse), but clearly they were seeing patients showing improvement or at least holding the line and that hasn’t happened in other Alzheimer’s trials.
That much they can tell without breaking the code. The company has a record $75 million in the bank, which along with inputs from parties financially helping to finance these trials, could last this frugal company for nearly 3 years.
Meanwhile, the CEO recently commented that Anavex is resisting any partnering interest and has retained 100% until it can demonstrate that A2-73 works and get fair value for its shareholders. Then I think big pharma is quite likely to swoop in.
Not waiting for 19 anymore to buy back in?Uhm, how things change.
A-37X: profilassi miracoloso
Deep Track Capital is a Greenwich, Connecticut-based investment firm focused exclusively on the life sciences industry. We develop long term partnerships with management teams of leading innovative public and pre-IPO biotechnology companies. In addition to capital, we seek to invest our time and expertise, while leveraging our network for the benefit of our partners. We aim to lead transactions while building large syndicates, and also to invest in rounds led by other qualified investors.
Relax longs. This will be a non-event in after the initial pull back today. An additional $50M in the bank is a good thing to continue moving to commercialization.
We got this.
AF and Kramer are both clowns who distort the truth for financial advantage. Criminals in my book.
Agree. His lack of bashing is at least a tacit acknowledgment.
This from Fartstain on Twitter today:
“Today's $AVXL press release reports the same study results that the company previously reported in December 2020.
anavex.com/anavex-life-sc…
Except there seems to be no progress being made with the FDA.”
Here is my response:
Adam, your arrogance is only overshadowed by your ignorance. Admitting that you are wrong is not the worst trait. Remaining obtuse about your mistake, 1.8B MC, several trials under way and continuing validation of the science behind the drug, should give you a clue.
With this convincing biomarker correlating efficacy data of U.S. Phase 2 (ANAVEX®2-73-RS-001) [7] study in adult patients with Rett syndrome, Anavex is planning to meet with the FDA to discuss the approval pathway. There are no FDA-approved drugs for Rett syndrome. ANAVEX®2-73 has Fast Track designation, Rare Pediatric Disease designation and Orphan Drug designation from the FDA for the treatment of Rett syndrome and may be considered for accelerated approval. The study was supported by the Rettsyndrome.org Foundation.
Tip of the iceberg….
Sir, brilliant post!
Thank you.
“A few weeks ago when price was struggling around 13 and 15, I sold some trading shares. and of course I wish I hadnt now, but thats the gambling game. Good luck to everyone. “
Yeap, gamblers get juiced by the action. Investors look at the bigger picture and play the long game. When the right stocks are picked, investors will always beat the traders.
As long as the sells are higher than the buys, both strategies work. Let’s all enjoy the ride which still has a long way to go.
All basis covered...yet, still wrong.
Yes! Thank you.
Paper loses are just tat. No loss until you sell. Fortunately, like many long-term holders, I am ahead on this investment, paper only, by about 445k. Accumulation taking advantage of the depressed PPS has giving me an average price of 3.85. The paper gain feels good but could disappear rather quickly with bad news. Of course I would prefer to be in the 20s but I also believe that 28 will be a long gone memory in a year or 2. That was the case for the 3s and 5s which we meandered through for so long.
I any case, I hope that traders make money selling higher than they buy all the way into the 100s. I do have an exit strategy but I am far from it. I aim to hold a good core after, cashing in on a couple of mil, hoping for forward splits and dividends, which Can be achieved by succeeding on PK and/or AD. I do however, am prepared to loose my accumulated investment which is all in the realm of possibility with baby bios.
Good luck.
“The only question remains the opportunity for what?
News, good or otherwise?
Trial Results?
Peer Review?
$1249 SP?
Rolling Stones 12 X 5 !!!!!!!”
Your thinking is short term to flip a trade. Good way to make some cash going in and out in lots of stocks.
Some of us on this MB are thinking long-term, so the thing that matters most is trial results. Based on what we know to date, we remain very bullish. The daily whims of the market are irrelevant.
Good luck with your trades.
Midan, nice summary and in full agreement with your assessment. I listened to the webcast yesterday and felt so uplifted that I bought another 10k today. That puts me on the overweight category, not quite as strong as LTBeliever and a few other credible posters on this board, but plenty to create generational wealth should Anavex achieve 1/2 of the potential.
I second your advice that all investors should listen to the presentations. Traders should not bother as their desire to book a few $k dollars will not change. Nothing wrong with it but not what serious investors are in the game for.
Go Anavex. GLTA.
Just sell and be done.