Don't take my advice. I don't know anything. I'm just a guy who talks to goats.
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And as for PE. If we get the debt consolidated to a term loan and we get NASDAQ listing which they should qualify for after yearend financials have been filed, then easily 15-20X so we could be looking at potential $60-$100 stock price by yearend 2025 if everything falls into place.
Wade my take from reading the press(earnings) release is that those contracts will mean growing sales in 2025. Now they haven't been really hyping anything in their past earnings releases in my view, more matter of fact. I wonder if this last release they are trying to address some concerns they might have received from shareholders. They said the secured contracts were MULTI YEAR and would drive growth now and in the future. So I will take that as they keep growing through 2025. As this new area of growth takes over, their other business lines will be less relevant to the company's growth.
Then there is this
https://www.pjm.com/-/media/about-pjm/newsroom/2024-releases/20240730-pjm-capacity-auction-procures-sufficient-resources-to-meet-rto-reliability-requirement.ashx
I've been reading about this for a while now, this is just one example, and this is why I'm so bullish on PSIX's future. There is a growing shortage of electricity generation capacity for the USA and I think a lot of companies are looking to secure their own backup demand not just for when power lines go down but for when peak power prices go into affect. So even with the up and down of the oil biz, they will get steady growth from other areas.
I want to know who had ASTS on their bingo card at $2.00 back in May? Just hit new high of $29.41 on latest earnings report.
SOWG- I like the candy, not the stock.
Well hopefully it will pull a PSIX. Seems like it took a while there for the results to sink in and now we're going in the right direction there. Give TSSI a few days, should see price move up. SOWG glad I sold yesterday, they posted good numbers and stock got hit hard. I want to wait for the dust to settle on that one but I will be buying back in there. They'll be a good candy maker for me.
That's interesting. What is the new equipment that allows that and who makes it? Sounds like an oil field parts maker made a a breakthrough.
Yes,
Looks like a good report. I'll have to read transcript of CC, going thru 10-Q right now. Happy to hold the shares I have. Chased it and then bought the fade so finally at a profit. I shouldn't have chased it to get my original position tho.
Made a quick 25% on SOWG and I'm out. If it rocks on earnings I miss out.
$FACO reportred yesterday, EPS of $.15 fro the quarter. Pretty good management team here but they sure are stingy with handling claims, lots of complaints on these guys in that area.
Oops GM deviation was off, 1% change in GM ==/-$.11 change in EPS
One last point. IF they can get a long term debt deal consolidating these LOC's and lowering the interest rate, then they can get the going concern note removed and be looking at a NASDAQ listing. The stock makes a major pop if that happens.
if they can't do 5 cents in earnings for the q, forget it.
I'm not KIK but I'm going to throw in my 2 cents on current state of PSIX. Yesterday's report was gangbusters to say the least. Most important was the continuing rise in gross margins indicating the ramp of the new Beloit facility is going smoothly. Now take a look at the gross margin trend over last 5 quarters: Q2,'23 was 22.1%, Q3-24.1, Q4 26.3, Q1'24-27, Q2-31.8. This as sales mix has shifted from transportation and industrial mostly to oilfield, demand response and enclosures. The current sales mix favors far less warranty expenses which is one aid to the increase in GM. Frankly if they got out of the transportation market, I think that would be to their benefit as it never really was that good of a business. I would say that GM is getting near the top and won't go any higher than 35% however, but what do I know?
Now they still maintain 3% sales growth for the year. So last years sales were $459 million, they've done $206 so far, leaves us with 266 for the next 2 quarters. I assume a ramp up of sales and GM with gross margings in Q3 and 4 of 32 and 33%. R&D holds the same to slight increase and SG&A goes back to 8% of sales. I come up with EPS for Q3 of $.92, Q4 $1.08. Total for the year without the lawsuit benefit is $3.04 and I believe I'm being conservative with the numbers. Any one point deviation in GM means a change in EPS of +/- $.01 over the 6 months.
Now most important, from the press release is this:
"We have successfully secured and are in the process of finalizing several major multi-year sales agreements with key customers for Data Center applications. These strategic partnerships are poised to drive future growth in this segment now and in the future. Our focus remains on leveraging these opportunities to drive further profitable growth and deliver sustained value to our shareholders.”
So higher margin business, sales growth next year.
Ok bad stuff:
Didn't generate much cash from operations since they put a lot of money into inventory and prepaid expenses, only paid down $5 million in debt. Press release says they're looking for ways to optimize their debt structure. I kind of doubt they are looking at an equity raise as that would dilute Weichai's majority ownership. Why Weichai wants to keep them in a stranglehold on their debt agreements has me scratching my head though. SOFR should be coming down in the next 2 quarters though so that will help out on interest costs. Gary "sour grapes" Winemaster will continue to sell off shares increasing the float. So far he's sold off 88,000 shares, he has 3.2 million left. He's got lawyer fees to pay, maybe wants to diversify, who knows maybe he'll want to start a new company that competes with PSIX? His brother Ken also owns 2.2 million shares maybe we'll see him start selling his also.
Bottom line you're looking at a company that trades for less than 4X this years earnings and will grow next year. I would call that a screaming buy.
this looks good
$SOWG has a new stockholder, Benno Fischer has filed with SEC a 13g/a disclosing an 8% stake in the company. Benno's profile is here:
https://reports.adviserinfo.sec.gov/reports/individual/individual_2198753.pdf
Well at least he has faith in Tbills!
$SOWG Has anyone tried their freeze dried candy? I haven't tried it yet. Seems to be a hit as they've generated $26 million in sales in the first year on the market from zero and that's without being on the shelves of Target and Walmart. They do plan on getting into some Target stores this past quarter. CXurrently in 7 eleven, 5 Below and a few other gas station chains.They are now profitablke.Stock price up 373% in the past year from a low of $4 but off the high of $24. Priced at a forward PE of 10. The guy running this is a serial entreprenuer and the son of a serial entreprenuer. They have done a careful rollout and have been methodical in building capacity and distribution. I own a small position. Earnings out next week and should be good.
$VITL- Just released earnings this AM. They aren't close yet to $CALM in terms of recent profitability but these guys just generated enough cash in this quarter that they should start paying a dividend. Based on cash on hand, cash generated, capital spending, they could pay $.20 quarterly. Wouldn't do a buy back as the PE is a little too high for that right now. They beat on sales and earnings and raised guidance. Of course the stock is down, which is why I gotta post something on them. I don't own any yet. I want to see the gap filled and the stock below $30, then I'm in. Seems to go with this quarter's earnings season that all stocks have to give up their gains for the summer.
Heck of a move the last month. How did we all miss this one?
Think or swim has been working all day tho
I just got in after 4 failed attempts
CNBC reports Schwab is down
Wow bitcoin down $10,000, VIX at 59 this would normally be a liquidity event(lack of), its like trust has vanished again. But isn't there liquidity in the system? You would think JP Morgan has failed.
Yes BUT internet bubble had a lot of companies trading on hope and a prayer and this time the Semis at least have earnings.
NVDA sounds like its time to buy.
I'd look for NVDA to fill the gap at $95 before we get a bounce.
But if you were wrong on one like Dexcom....
KIK wondering if you still follow SOWG? Earnings are coming up, stock has retreated off high, looks like a success story, sales have exploded and that's without shelf space on Walmart or Target as I understand. Different category for candy, I haven't tried their product, has anyone here tried it? I am considering a long position.
Looking back a bit I wonder if there is some seasonality to PSIX's business and that maybe Q1 is always a little weaker than the rest of the year?
BTW I made a mistake in an earlier post that expectations for q2 earnings were 50 cents/share. That was for q3 which I see now is 54 cents. q2 expected at 36 cents. They have beat expectations for the last 4 quarters. Those are all Non-GAAP numbers.
Just one more point Wade. I think burying a not eabout products being made for data centers in a 10Q is hardly hype. I mean if they wanted to hype it, they would put out a press release. Even the info about the new production facility didn't rate a press release. You have to go to the company web site and look around to find it. This company really doesn't do PR at all. As far as I know they don't have a PR firm. So changing a few words in the 10-Q could hardly rate as hype in my opinion.
I could be wrong, I don't know anything, I'm just a guiy who talks to goats!
There was but it didn't attract enough interest:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inverse-jim-cramer-etf-shuttered-140000106.html
Wade the period when the stock went down, no one was paying attention to the company. Look at trading volume for that period, averaged arund 6,000 shares/day. Now a few people like myself did notice the turnaround and I was quietly accumulating in q4 2003 and q1 2004.I think a few people in the Microcapclub were doing the same, as MikeDDKing stated he had been buying.https://microcapclub.com/about. I might add there is very little float in this stock by the way, check the last 2 proxy statements. When a low float stock suddenly gets attention, its almost like a short squeeze and crazy things happen to the stock price. Now the last reported quarter I believe was when a brokerage firm (Craig Hallum) decided to get involved, they were looking for confirmation of what management was stating in previous quarters. The company were coming through on a consistent basis with profits and cash flow while managing expansion. See their website under the news section, you will see they have recently set up a new plant in Beloit WI to produce enclosures which doubles their capacity for that product line, this product line I believe is generating most of their profits. So now volume picked up and with it price. Stuff like this gets noticed and then you have a write up on seeking alpha, generating more interest. Then the action tends to feed on itself from there. That's about the time I started checking aroung social media sites like this one and stock twits. There was a lot of growth in followers on stock twits and a few more on the antiquated yahoo stock comments section where I was talking to an empty theater.
Now as for cash flow, they have been focused on paying down debt. They had a new CEO, Dino Zykis, come in and I think that was his mission. So he reduces inventories, speeds up collections and with a reduction in sales, A/R naturally follows that trend if everything is kosher with sales. And if you have smart managers, you can also reduce inventories if you have a good handle on sales forecasts. So reduce cash tied up in inventory and A/R, use that excess cash to pay down debt. Reduce debt, reduce interest cost, that leads to better profit margins.
As to previous history of the company. Previous management did some naughty things, cooking the books to boost sales so they could boost the stock price. At the same time they gambled the companies future and sunk them into debt that they couldn't pay back. The SEC got involvled and filed suit against Winemaster the founder and previous CEO. So there were lots of litigation expenses and this took a lot of focus off the business.They got punished for that. Previous management got booted, along with the board of directors. Weichai saw an opportunity to get their technology which compliments their business for cheap and jumped at it, I think it helped that both companies were basically across town from each other, they had to have been familiar with each other if they were worth their salt. Now there are still some unresolved issues, the company has a going concern notice from their auditors for instance and there are a couple of unresolved lawsuits against them- those are in the 10-k. They can't get relisted on NASDAQ until at least the going concern note comes off. The key event is going to be what happens when the Standard Chartered LOC gets paid off, or if a new debt agreement or stock issue happens to pay off the rest of the LOC's to Weichai. This may be why Craig Hallum started covering the company, to get investment banking business from them. If refinancing doesn't occur and the Std Chartered LOC gets paid off, then I would start to worry about the companies future. I'll leave it to you to speculate what could happen then.
I've followed this company since 2012 or 2013 made really good money but sold out to early when I initially bought the stock.Bought at 14 sold at 45 and kicked myself when it crossed 80. But then had a laugh when the bad stuff started to get revealed and the stock crashed. I started trading it again a little back in 2020.Then started quietly accumulating as I said earlier. Let me tell you those were nervous times, I felt all alone on this one and was always double checking my assumptions, but I look for opportunities where stock price doesn't follow company results. I'm a student of businesses and this has been an interesting story to follow, definitely worthy of a case study writeup for business school. I hope I have answered some of your questions, its good to be sceptical, that's how you hang on to your wealth.
I picked up a starter position this morning on the drop after reading up a little and then listening to this guys pitch and following up on what he said:
CANOF up 70% to .58 today.
PSIX- upcoming catalysts: Shareholders meeting July 25. Earnings for quarter ended June 30 probably released a couple weeks after that but may be some sort of guidance at meeting. Just a reminder that of the 22million + shares outstanding the float is 3 million. So todays trading is over 10% of float. Really not that much of float has turned over today. I would guess that of persons I know and the crowd that MIKEDDKING hangs with, 20% of that 3 million is held pretty tight. Earnings expected for this quarter around $.50.
While a few of you think this company is like the China stocks of old, this is not some shell company based in the Cayman Islands laundering dollars into yuan and back again, but a real US operating company, with real US dollar earnings.
I bought a little today. Earnings out tomorrow. Sales preannounced and those are growing. Lots of controversy on this one. If this turns into another AXON would be nice. Solid financials, lots of new markets to enter, needs consistent profitability to really get going.
Ok thanks for that info. But still they don't have the cash to pay the accumulated preferred divs and it would take a few years to pay that off at the rate they're going. I just stay away from form 15 companies, at any time they could choose to go dark if they wanted. I hope it works out for you. I got interested when I read posts about the company but just the little digging I did turned me off.
ETCC filed a form 15 with the SEC back in 2013. They're a non reporting company. Now they do have a clean opinion from the Auditor, but I see a couple of areas of concern. One is the cumulative convertible preferred, they have over $5 million due on that so they have not paid the dividends in a while. They only have $ 37,000 cash on the balance sheet. Cash from operations was negative for last year. The preferred is convertible at 1.98 and would result in additional 6 million shares being issued. Currently 15 million out. So why did they cease to be a non reporting company so long ago and still they pay an auditor for an opinion and publish a nice glossy annual report? Usually companies go dark to save on accounting fees. It is nice that they keep their shareholders in the know. But non reporting?