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If MARA performs and keeps on cutting deals, both small and large, I think we'll be fine in the long-term
It's tough way things have been going but that's investing/life
If you think or know there's something better out their, go for it I say.
If not, just be patient. As with life, businesses have ups and downs, I don't see MARA having a lot of downs other than current sp and a few cases that haven't gone their way
Thanks for putting it in a better way
George Soros believes in reflexivity, which states that fallible human perception is influenced by negative (bring you closer to reality) and positive (take you away from reality) feedback loops
I believe that if, FUNDAMENTALLY, the company executes, that sooner or later, it will reflect the stock price
At the moment, it seems to be influenced by a perception of pessimism, and that's fine
MARA may turn out to be another VHC or VRNG??? never know
NATURE OF GAME
But, I'm waiting because I've seen results that satisfy my expectations
Guess what I'm trying to say is that if they perform as expected, the stock price is bound to go north. Yes it's been frustrating, but it's a tough sector.
I'm not married to this stock, but I'm not quitting until I see some consistent underperformance
Time will tell
Volume's low, short term traders, impatience, uncertainty, etc. too many variables to guess as to why it's going down
As long as they keep performing, no reason to be scared
I may be very wrong, but I'm looking for a "success ratio" with regard to management's ability to acquire patents that yield some value, whether in or out of court.
Thanks for the perspective though, always good to question models
Thank you sir,
No need for real time info, I was just looking for a rough historical approximation and you provided it nicely.
Does anyone know the court win/settlement to loss ratio for Marathon? If not, can anyone give me a lead on how to compile such information?
TIA
Wonder how many of the following will settle, now that Volvo has, and how much?
Signal's U.S. Patents 5,714,927, "Method of Improving Zone of Coverage Response of Automotive Radar," 5,732,375, "Method of Inhibiting or Allowing Airbag Deployment," 6,434,486, "Technique for Limiting the Range of an Object Sensing System in a Vehicle," 6,012,007, "Occupant detection method and apparatus for air bag system," 5,463,374, "Method and apparatus for tire pressure monitoring and for shared keyless entry control," 5,954,775, "Dual Rate Communication Protocol," and 6,775,601, "Method and Control System for Controlling Propulsion in a Hybrid Vehicle," are currently being asserted against various automotive companies including American Honda Motor Co., Inc., Ford Motor Company, Audi of America Inc., Porsche Cars of America Inc., Mazda Motor of America, Inc., Mercedes-Benz USA, LLC., Fiat U.S.A. Inc., BMW of North America LLC., Subaru of America, Inc., Kia Motors America, Inc., Nissan North America, Inc., Mitsubishi Motors North America, Inc., and Jaguar Land Rover North America LLC. in the United States District Court for the Central District of California and/or the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan.
Everything starts with a dream/vision...
...hope your dream pans out for all our sakes
Inevitably, there will be an adverse ruling...
...if it came now, it would a case of better sooner than later, which will send the stock price even lower than it's already depressed levels...
...given that the company has bright prospects, it would be that much more of a return.
In short, it's not always going to be good news with MARA, so I hope the bad news comes first, followed by a ton of good news.
I hope and pray for an adverse ruling in one of the markmen so the stock price will tumble and I can back up the truck
One of my favorite quotes comes from Nassim Taleb (roughly):
The difference between the loser and the winner, is that the loser complains and the winner capitalizes.
I decided to take advantage of what is, not complain about what's not going my way. After all, which one's going to really have any effect?
So I trade around this volatility, and have made a decent return doing so with these very predictable ups and downs.
Should major news hit, I'm prepared as well.
So I'd say, core position if you really believe in MARA, and trade around it to take advantage of volatility.
I'm long, but could it be the case that Stryker is waiting on the case to determine validity before settling? That is, maybe they did a cost-benefit analysis on the pros vs cons, even with injunction, and decided to try their luck?
Anyone have any book recommendations on the IP sector...
been looking at a few, like the intangible investor...would appreciate a heads up, and even more with concise reasoning
TIA
If you look at history, and almost every discipline has a 1%. Whether it's sports, finance, modeling, etc...
...unfortunately, sometimes part of that 1% is a bit unethical and uses things such as performance enhancing drugs, illegal trading practices, sleeps with employer, etc..
Life sucks and then you die! Unless you're rich, then you live forever and life is awesome :)
So if Red Angus is right in his "Could Petrella open the door under FRCP 15(b)" post...
I guess treble damages would be on the table, no?
Just because I've heard this thrown around, but what about treble damages?
I hope so...
I had a dream the other night that VRNG had beat Google on every appeal, and settled with ZTE.
In my dream, I became a millionaire as VRNG shot up to $60+ after they announced they were suing Yahoo. Don't ask me about how my dream valuation came about.
I woke up and was so so so pissed. But at least I will know how happy/dissapointed I will be when this is all said and done.
Yep, I believe Cuban was an early investor in Facebook and was rattled and sold for a loss when shares plunged short after the IPO.
Wouldn't really take his opinions to heart as a make or break for a company, industry, law, etc...
Just making fun of myself...I was obviously very very wrong in my guess haha
I was right on the money ;)
Agreed, and hope the trend of buying continues.
No one's bitching about a purchase, just stating the obvious. $30k isn't really saying much about insider purchases.
Now if insiders have enough conviction and continue to purchase in more significant amounts to relay the message that sp is ridiculously cheap, then that would say a lot.
Have to agree...$30k insider buy is not really saying much.
I agree with the part about market manipulation driving the price of this stock down, but as far as Karma goes...well, let's just look at the history books and today's news to know that a lot of bad guys live a great life, e.g., many plantation owners, various dictators, American European settlers who killed Native Americans and kidnapped/enslaved countless, etc.; and on the flip side a lot of innocent people suffer needlessly, e.g., Jews in the holocaust, starving babies born in 3 world countries, and VRNG shareholders
10 million plus shares on no news smells fishy to me though...man I'm bored
You would think that something happened haha
My post was just intended to educate, as I was not really aware of how bad the problem is.
I'm sorry people who do the "right thing" suffer, as you have.
The documentary is old, think it was released in 2010 or 2012, but it is still very enlightening and I recommend watching the whole film to grasp how big the problem is.
What sent chills up my spine was that one of the targeted company's technology is used by Google voice, without having paid the company one red cent for it's use. Of course, the company went under because of the naked shorting.
The company was being helped by O'Quinn
Anyway, I recommend it for anyone holding VRNG shares
So I'm not about conspiracy theories and usually brush off those on message boards who say that Google hedge funds are manipulating this stock. But after watching this documentary
I'm currently at ~10% asset allocation for our beloved VRNG, but I've been doing research on the Kelly Criterion and it's advantages with regard to asset allocation.
So I'm trying to use a range of the Kelly Criterion to approximate the appropriate position size for VRNG in my portfolio
Using:
p = prob of win
b = payout on bet
[p * b - (1 - p)] / b
I'd appreciate it if anyone can help me get a better approximation of prob and/or payout, e.g., historic probabilities regarding CAFC & SCOTUS appeals, etc...
I bought more stock in VRNG when news came out that both parties, ZTE and VRNG, had mutually agreed to postpone their court date.
That was in late April.
I guess they paid that bond to enforce the injunction on the 5th of May because talks must have broke down huh?
Guess VRNG said, "no more Mr. Nice Guy"
Don't forget about ZTE $...that could also potentially send sp through the roof
Crossing my fingers
Can't wait to see those indicative ADT #s...will definitely give a clear picture as to how much weight VRNG is throwing around in negotiations, apart from TYCO settlement #s
Know the feeling...sold all my position in UPIP in Jan to load up on VRNG
Almost cried when UPIP hit $2...and it's probably going higher in the next few days
Hopefully some ZTE news washes away the pain
Wow that sp is rising today...guess everyone's putting posteponement and settlement together, even though it's not a gaurantee
Speaking of earnings, since the cash burn rate should be lower, and the settlement #'s from ADT may be good, does anyone expect a surprise during earnings?
Yahoo has it listed on the 9th of May, which is a Friday...usually co.s that have earnings on a Friday don't have much if any good news to report though.
Thoughts?
I recently befriended a patent lawyer that is helping me learn more about how to assess ip and he suggested these resources for starters:
http://www.ipwatchdog.com/
http://bitlaw.com/
Hope they help
I still remember the 28th of January like it was yesterday, felt great...the stock shot up above $5 from where it is now and I was sure that we were in for even more price appreciation...then 3 months later, which is not too long as a long term investor, I know that shorts aren't going to be scared off until Google is well done, or VRNG discloses a great settlement with ZTE or other co.s
I totally agree with your reasoning behind the low sp; but in this case, until there is something more concrete that send shorts running for cover and attract more institutional $, e.g., disclosed settlement, good financials on next ER, appeal wins, etc...
then I think we're just going to have to keep on waiting, and just have fun speculating. But yeah, it'll come...hopefully before or on the next ER
Good assessment, and I think that's how a lot of people interpreted this postponement.
But as we've all learned, I don't think any significant and lasting rise in sp will occur until the money's in the bank and/or the details of such a settlement are disclosed, unfortunately.