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Would be pretty bearish if it turns down there.
60 min summations and 60 min put/call.
No sell signalson daily yet, but I wouldn't be surprized if we are close.
60 min summations. Green is the volume summation. Notice how when its trending up there is accumulation. When its trending down, is distribution. The actual price top/bottoms are delayed a little as momentum caries them further.
Looks like the accumulation peak has been hit for this round of the rally and the distribution is in progress. It has curved up a little by the close on Friday, but my guess is that it will lead to a lower peak and any price rise from here is shortable.
The yellow line is A/D summation.
MSFT trading at 20+ forward P/E Not exactly a steal at this prices. They do have a 19 bil buyback programm that will keep them afloat, but as investment here it not worth it.
I'm more or less flat right now. Just tweaking my new system, waiting for a sell signal. Thats why I'm not posting much, since I have no real position :)
MRVL is a turd, but this market is in a frenzy mode.
I think time to open heavy shorts will be around the opex.
I didn't play that one. Hope you got it :) That stock is nuts:)
GOOG may drop 15-20 points today, and it will only be a blip on the chart :) But the put buyers will score.
60 min charts had huge negative divergences, look at MACd for example. And now they are breaking down.
Today's open has the makings of real weakness.
High TRIN, real slowdown in momentum on daily summations, very weak A/D line. If the selling pressure builds through the day, and internals don't improve... this rally may be over.
WOW. Homebuilders getting slaughtered. On top of TOL, CFC CEO on CNBC is talking about housing bubble cooling off.
Challenging for sure :)
This is the equity curve for the past 5 years, based on trading 1000 shares QQQQ, including comissions. Of course using leverage, like options, and pyramiding the profits will boost the returns substantialy.
There isthat one spot in the middle that I want to get rid of, but overall I'm pretty happy with results.
I'm thinking of adding some kind of position sizing algorithm, and maybe trading around the main trend. Trading around the trend would've removed that flat line in the middle.
But this isn't a curve fitting and not predictive strategy, its reactive. and I want it to stay that way.
What I like about it is howit held up throufg bear market, bull market, insane volatility, and trendless markets. We had all kinds of markets you can imagine in the past 5 years :)
Riding the whispaws is probably more dependable at this point, since on many indicators we are in the middle of nowhere and it can go either way. But in situations like December 2004 a lot of indicators were saying that it was an imporatnat top, and smoother version of the system was on sell alittle early, but never flinched. So there the whipsaws could've been avoided, since it was so obvious.
But the most important part is that it will always position itself into the directon of a breakout. So whenever the trade breaks out it will catch it, in either direction. And stay with it.
Right now it says the trend is up. By the close today, it may be down :) Who knows.
I'll be posting charts here. One issue that needs to be taken care off is the whipsaw at the turning points.
I can make it a little smoother, but then the entry will be 1-2 days delayed.
Beat the onslaught of trading robots with trading robots ! :)
The partial take profits trigger is probably any day now. Though, keep in mind, this isn't a curve fitting system and it can miss a few turning points here and there. It has been long since about 38.5 already.
However the momentum seems to be very strong, so even if we are at a temporary high, it will most likely be retested, or exceeded.
Then again, it can just roll over any day:)
Completely new trading Strategy!!! Big news!
Over the weekend I decided to make huge changes in my trading. HUGE. From now on I will trade mostly QQQQ. With leverage and without. Sometimes with a lot of leverage.
I've spend about past 2 years trying to develop a dependable trading system that can be semi automated. And all over suddelny I got it.
I was doing it all wrong. I was trying to come up with a system that could trade everything, based on RSI, MACD, ADX, Momentum, or any other possible indicator known to man, and combination of them. Some of them were ok, some of them weren't. But nothing I could dependably launch in automatic mode.
I have radicaly changed my approch and realized that QQQQ is the ultimate trading vechicle and the system I eventualy came up with isn't based on MACD or price or volume, but on the combination of market internal momentum and psychology. Sorry, don't ask me to disclose details.
Of course I'm sure there are systems better then this. But this one is dependable like a rock. It can be whipsawed for a few days, and in a very choppy market even longer, but I'll smooth it out over time.
Here is the trading chart of this system for the past couple years. And included are 2 out of 4 indicators used in the system.
Notice the upper indicator almost always gets overbought right near a bottom (even if its only 1-2 weeks) And even can be traded separately VERY dependably. The lower indicator shows Dominant Trend. (The system front runs it with a faster indicator, that is not shown. But it can generate whipsaws). Whipsaws usualy occur at trend changing points. But this system will always reverse in the direction of the main trend. ALWAYS. And what is more important, it will stay with it.
I'll try to smooth the system out over time, but one thing for sure... I've been spending a boatload of time looking at 100s of charts in different sectors, different set ups and getting a headake trying to come up with what to trade next day, next week or next month. And now I can save a lot of time :)
Caution!. 30/60 min summations are EXTREMELY overbought and are starting to bunch up for reversal. Hourly put/call stuck near 0.5
I'm buying a bunch of Index puts for a 2-3 day trade.
Yes, I just keep adding pputs, like an idiot :) 1-2 contracts at a time, as it keeps creeping higher.
I just don't think its sustainable :) One 10--15 point dive on it will make me happy. I don't need much.
GOOG has 60 min 3 gazzilion negative divergences on every possible indicator. Flashing strong sell again here.
But I know, everyone is afraid of it :)
Thi rally is now gaining major acceptance. Equity put/call is in 0.5 area all day. Rydex bear funds fell apart in last 3 days, and today will probably take another huge outflow.
Support ? I'd say in the 40s. Careful with that sector.there were quite a few warnings. MHS was the latest one. UNH and AET reported ok,but the rest kinda weak guidance.
Monthly charts parabolic charts, no short interest, I think its due for a shakeout like energy was.
And protracted consolidation.
I don't think there is any upside left in there. But if fundamental problems start spreading across the whole sector....
UNH daily has multpiple negative divergences and overbought to extremes. Heavy volume churn last few days. And today the block selling even got on CNBC.
I think there is a trend change in progress.
Big block selling in leading HMO's, according to CNBC
Here is UNH monthly for example of what they look like. I say its time for the big block selling :)
I still have December /January puts on them, added a few contracts here and there.
WYNN reports horrible results.
Revenues belowestimates. Profits non existant.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051103/35413.html?.v=1
Short WYNN, don't think twice about it.
Nope, no idea :) I wanted to buy a little, since they sacked the whole management, but passed. Zeev knows it very well, I think. I never looked into it.
Too bad, was a great short :)
Careful with longs here. Multiple divergences on 60 min charts everywhere. 60 min summations look very exhausted.
Fed draining big. Treasury draining big tomorrow.
Bonds aren't selling, means liquidity not coming from bonds.
Most likely beggining of month mutual fund inflows combined with short squeeze.
Not a lasting fuel.
Equity put call stuck in 0.5 area all day. Optimism very high. Rydex bearish funds had huge bullish shiofts in the last few days.
This rally may be just about over.
Fed drains 7.25 bil
Mortgage applications chart.
http://www.idorfman.com/Charts/mortpurchases012705.png
MERQE major implosion.
Electronic Arts-ERTS solid Q2; maintain Overweight & $55 target@PRUS
The firm continues to believe that investors looking for exposure in this space will be best positioned overweighting the name, despite the "shaky" near-term guidance.
.....
Prudential always does this :)Says everything is good, but the pricetarget is lower where the price is :)
MWY warned after the close and TTWO yesterday. This sector is in trouble. They are blaming it on transition in consoles, but in reality its market saturation, combined with high replayability of existing titles, online subscription games, like Everquest or World of Warcraft and many others, and lack of new good titles.
There is just nothing to buy.
Most of them just keep franchizing on existing titles and very little new and original development.
Estimates are for 1.55 from what I can see. the guidance 1.45-1.55 (or 1.6 including some accounting shennanigans)
Fiscal Year Expectations -- Ending March 31, 2006
* Net revenue is expected to be between $3.250 and $3.400 billion.
* Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share are expected to be between $1.45 and $1.60.
* GAAP diluted earnings per share are expected to be between $1.40 and $1.55. This range includes up to $0.05 of estimated charges related principally to the Company's European reorganization and establishment of an International Publishing Headquarters in Geneva.
ERTS getting jammed now. Not good.
ERTS guidance in line.
Yes, but it lasted 1 minute :)
Overall very unexciting so far.
I think it dumps tomorrow. Its too expensive and too much hope around it. And earnings nothing to write home about.
Isn't it amazing that people are actually waiting to buy the dip on the company on the earnings disspaointment, after the company keeps dissapointing over and over again.
And not like this is some value stock.
Thats quite perverse and makes ERTS a good short in the long run.
GOOG 60 min chart.
I'll go out on a limb here and say that GOOG blew off.
And another possiblity that blow off in GOOG coincides with blow offin speculative activity and the market is about to tank. (won't go out on a limb here, though :) ).
Market is setting up for reversal here.
30 minsummations overbought and gearing for a roll over.
60 min summations close to overbought, and slowing down too.
If the Fed removes the "measured" word, thismarket can take a real dive.
Mometum oscillators on 60 min and daily are in overbought too, so the set up is perfect.
I themarket is playing the game of chiken with the fed here. Squeeze as many shorts as possible, before the big liquidity drain kicks in.
GOOG already traded half average daily volume. Blow off ?
Fed drains 2.25 bil. I think with so many expirations, TIO,s new borrowing and so little accomodation... I wouldn't want to be long stocks here.
Prices paid in ISM are very high. 84.