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Great news?!? Wow! What is in that kool-aid, lol? Seriously, who is going to provide Wave with funding now to continue operations? Aren't they almost out of cash and making it to the end of the year is questionable? Please correct me if I am wrong. I thought the picture brightened up a bit with the NSM news, but now it has grown dim again IMO. Any thoughts about future funding are encouraged.
TIA!
I surely hope so Snackman.
lol. eom
Snackman: Yep. It still will be on my stock watch list, but as for connecting dots, I'm done with that. It's been a pleasure following this board because of all the technical discussion, but actually, it was to my detriment from a financial perspective. I always sell after incurring a 15% loss. Unfortunately, I ignored my investment rule because all the dot connecting here seemed logical. It was and still is logical, but all-in-all just guesses based on deductive reasoning. If you were to look at what percentage of the dot connecting theories actually became reality, you would surely come up with a number less than 10%. I'll revisit if the price goes above a dollar to see what's up.
Paul
Fine, I retract my theory. I'm sorry I ever even thought that might be occuring. I can admit when I'm wrong.
Paul
It's over. I would say that an interested party will now extend a behind closed doors bid for Wave's Intellectual Property for ~$1 a share. That's the only asset. Why pay for anything else? With no installed base, no customer base, and no real clear and concise indication of any significant deployments currently or in the future, the patents and limited goodwill spread in the marketplace over the past year are worth approximately $1 of consideration in my opinion.
However, lookout for management's ego. The most likely immediate plans are to cut the burn-rate and try to eek out another year of operations on fumes hoping (praying) for customers to finally come and some more financing to come their way. They probably still think that Intel, et al, will continue to tout their name. Well, after a year, that didn't help generate sales and now the whole security market and the IT professionals that make the buying decisions know Wave hasn't sold squat even with Intel's support. Why would an IT professional deploy Wave technology throughout their enterprise if none of their counterparts have? Install a system for millions from a company for which the odds that they are even around in a year is very doubtful? Yeah, right. Furthermore, the bottom line is that the joint venture with Intel, et al, has been a TOTAL failure. Why would Intel continue the program and invest more money in the program with the reality that your partner may not be around in a year?
At least if they sell the patents and the other Intellectual Property for all the software, investors will get out with something. And come to think of it, since management holds significant quantities of stock, it would be in their best interest as well. And that point right there pushes the deal right through up to stockholder approval. You know management will go for the cash.
The only remaining question then is: "Do you want fries with that?" because obviously stockholders will approve the sell-out (no choice but to take what you can get) and then just head off to Mickey Ds with the funds.
Paul
As I said, those callers have to be pre-selected.
OT Mig - ditto here. I wish that the price tag was like $5K though. Unless, Wave rockets to $50, I won't be ponying-up $20K to fulfill the dream. Do they have coupon days? You know, like a free bowl of borsch and $5K rides on May Day, lol?
Paul
The reason for there being no volume today is simple - investors are just waiting to hear the CC. Nobody knows anything (good in a way b/c there are no leaks & nothing fishy is going around which means the SEC won't need to investigate); and therefore, they will just sit on the sidelines. That's been going on to a large degree all this week and trading days in the past recent couple weeks. During this inactivity, the MMs just toss some shares around to indicate a market.
Consequently, the verdict will be in with the start of trading tomorrow and next week.
Paul
1st - I am still an interested party in Wave and once I see some prospects for the company, I will re-invest.
2nd - I never told anybody to sell. I presented an investment strategy to consider. It is a sound strategy used by investors all the time. In no way do I recommend selling Wave unilaterally.
Paul
Doma: The Yahoo board is totally unprofessional. I present reasoned and logical opinions. I have that right.
Paul
Thanks VH2! I enjoyed your post as well be it or not be it with tongue in cheek. Best wishes on your future investments also and don't forget to ask for plenty of pain killers for the toothache and possibly for the CC. I hope both are pain-free for you. :)
Paul
Zen... ouch. Now that cuts to the bone. That's what I'm talking about. I bet they would just say: "Next question please." That is really a brilliant question nonetheless. It would make me uncomortable asking it as it obviously is a confrontational question. I tried to give an example that was diplomatic, but yours really hits at the crux of the matter. Do you think anyone will dare?
Paul
I said I would. Rantings you say... wow. eom
A question that should be asked and answered at the CC that would not decrease stealth (that all so important stealth) and SHOULD be answered because it is not that difficult of a question and forecast to put your arms around is:
"When does Wave forecast to see its first half million dollar revenue quarter?"
We're talking about $500K folks. If there are so many irons in the fire, they should be able to determine at what stage these projects are in with respect to the sales cycle and crunch some numbers. Even if the answer was Q2 2005. Just an answer that is honest and 100% definite. It is something in any case. We're already at 88 cents. It can't get much worse. If they can't even predict sales of $500K after all this time, then why would an investor hold their position. Maybe, just to keep paying management's salary and bonus is all I can think of.
And that's why if they can't provide some guidance like this example, I believe there will be a huge sell-off. Now, the question is:
"Besides me, who will attempt to get through and ask this simple question." I have tried on past CCs to get through and never have. Makes me think that only known investors are able to get through. I hope you guys see my logic here and make the effort. It is for all our good. Its not a bad thing. Someone has got to ask a question like this which is in shareholders' benefit. I can't believe how calm, patient, understanding and bend-over-backwords polite shareholders are during the CC question sessions. SKS has 1 hour to be exposed to accountability on execution and it does not happen the way it should.
Paul
If we get the same ole song & dance at today's CC, I think investors (retail & institutional) will sell-out.
Basically, enough is enough. 16 years and $200M+ and the company called Wave Systems has no revenues. Face it... even a Wall Street neophyte would laugh his ass off. That's the bottom line. Call me a basher, someone with an agenda, Osama Bin Laden, lol, I don't care. It's ridiculous already. So much so, that there is even a play depicting one person's demise as a Wave Systems investor. Geez-Louise, lol. You know its gotta be a really, really goofy investment (well the technology is not goofy, the execution or Business Plan is), ludicrous in fact, when there is a play about a fellow that had to search for spiritual enlightenment (went goofy) after his run-in with a company/investment, lol.
I really hope that SKS is brimming with good news today. I really do. Heck, I stand to make $6,000 of tax-free profits if Wave becomes a viable entity. SKS has got to realize that today IS a day of the utmost importance to Wave shareholders. I really think that if there is no concrete guidance, we are looking at a big sell-off. I think that if this does not happen, investors will throw-in the towel. Even the sentiment on this board is at an all time low.
I write this as the honest truth as I see it in hopes of it reaching the right person at Wave so as to adjust and/or enhance today's CC. Otherwise, the stock will be punished and further financing will be done at the sub-50 cent level and that spells disaster. So, heed my words.
Everyone... let's say a prayer for deliverance. Seriously.
Paul
OK... I know how you feel my man. Remember when I told you that I sold, well, when I sold at $1.48, even after losing 52% (~$6,000), I felt a weight lifted off my shoulder. Furthermore, since I did that over 30 days ago, I can take a tax write-off even if Wave announces something spectacular and then I buy back in below or near the $1.48 I sold it at.
A Strategy to Consider
If there is a bounce into that $1.50 area again (Lord knows Wave would pop for no reason whatsoever at times), then if one looks at past history following those pops for no reason, one would see that they were ALWAYS followed by a steady (sometimes hasty) retreat back to the level it started at. Therefore, if you are thinking (gambling in this case) that nothing significant will happen until the end of spring 2005, you can take advantage of the write-off and still be able to jump back-in at the proper moment using this strategy. It would all be up to your timing and careful attention to trading and news everyday during that 30-day period. Some would say that having no position for 30-days would be stupid because spectacular news can be announced at any moment. Well, I've heard that for over a year now. All of this strategy depends on that no news bounce though. Good luck to us all.
Paul
Willem:
My feeling exactly regarding this particular technology and patent and the suppositions stated for the defense of this particular patent which may in fact pertain to many Wave patents because of the same factors; namely, the resources (litigation expenses), products (market position) and revenues (market acceptance) that are inherent factors surrounding the defense of the patent and overturn of third party competing patent claims which encrouch on Wave's so-called dominion (partial or entire), or desired dominion, over the technology. That is why I am developing a quite gloomy scenario for Wave's future success unless some very significant developments (contracts, partnerships, revenues, etc.) occur very soon on at least one or two of these major product lines and ideally all of them. On that last positive note, certain individuals are implying that some developments for the WaveMeter patent are imminent. Add revenues for Wave's other products and the picture starts to turn brighter and Wave may turn around into a profitable, viable company. But for now, we can only wait and see.
Paul
Now I won't be able to sleep. Good thing I have plenty of funds available. :) We'll see if you're just pulling my leg though.
Tax write-off (I know companies purposely make this type of strategic investment at times. CPA might be able to shed some light on this) or he had the wool pulled over his eyes like so many others.
Paul
Fair enough Snackman. Hopefully I'm wrong :)
Paul
Snackman:
All my point was is that they're not flying off the shelves like everyone was hoping for... no agenda... geez.
Paul
Hi cmf:
I'd say we're on the same page.
Paul
cmf:
I remember when SKS was saying last year that by now Intel would be shipping by the tens of 1000s of the 865 boards. Well, Intel just said it ain't so. So, maybe you are right... geez... I feel sorry for this whole thing and everyone involved.
Paul
I'm not hoping. If Wave makes progress, then I press the buy button and I am on the bottom of a great investment. So, don't make me out to be a bad guy. I am predicting the previous because I see no indication of any traction in business for Wave. Dot connecting is nice, but actual contracts are what counts and we don't see any, do we. The stealth mode line is b.s. IMO. We'll see.
Paul
I predict revs. are going to be around $50K to $100K and the stock goes to .50. Just my opinion.
Paul
Don't know. It was a new message.
At this price, this risk grade?!?
http://www.nasdaq.com/services/riskMetrics.stm?&tickers=wavx
not_til_2005:
Please elaborate on what you are incinuating.
TIA,
Paul
It's compelling because there is a good story about the technology. However, the company doesn't seem to be in the forefront of delivering that technology. I feel better now just watching with a finger on the buy button that will be depressed once I hear the million dollar revenue number. I'll be able to catch the surge at the bottom, but won't have to ride the stock to the bottom if another company eats their lunch.
Paul
bdooley:
With there being a play attached to this investment which depicts the suffering of an average investor, I'm sitting here thinking - what kind of ridiculous investment did I get myself into? I'm now on the sidelines, but STILL following it. I guess I'll just keep doing that for sh*ts and grins. This whole company is now just a big Wall Street joke and the play clearly illustrates this. Just my opinion.
Paul
I know reg... that comment was tongue in cheek. Just letting off some steam :)
Paul
Snackman:
You are saying that significant revenues will occur in the spring of next year. It seems to me that your estimates of significant revenues (be them in your own humble and honest opinion) are always getting pushed back in time. I guess we all are doing this. It's getting kind of old, wouldn't you say? After Q1, I guess that we will be saying: "by the spring of 2006" because we still have runway (approximately $20M of the shelf registration). That runway is the only hope left for Wave investors waiting for revenues. But when will they come? Being a Wave investor and waiting for revenues is like being a Cubs fan and waiting for a World Series win.
Paul
AMAT & WFR are up :)
Wonder if something will be announced on the 11th? Did you see hamhock's messages on Yahoo?
Paul
I'm thinking about putting GTC order in at .75, but with my luck it will go to .50.
Paul
If someone wanted to own let's say 15%... couldn't they go to the open market and buy let's say 100 - 200K every day in 20K lots throughout the day so as not to pop the price until they reached 10% and then declare it and then still go on buying that way until reaching 15%? Hypothetically speaking.
Paul
He could of been fed a lot of the usual SS hype, dreams or whatever you want to call the speal. SS has that down pat obviously... he's convinced all of us. If there was some info. that he was privi to, that really is unfair and illegal I believe. If something big comes out soon, he might be under a lot of scrutiny by the SEC. I'm sure someone jealous will bring it to there attention.
Paul
Ramsey:
I totally agree. The SEC investigation and lawsuits threw a humungous wrench into the whole thing. So, there's one major, major aspect of managing the company from every business unit's standpoint that messed the Business Plan up dramatically. Kind of sad really. Management had a plan and a timeline that depended on the market being receptive and supportive and then that key foundation for the company's product roll-out, market acceptance & deployment and financing with favorable terms was blown out of the water by a weak-cause investigation and frivilous lawsuits. I bet SS is crying in his milk. It is really sad for all of us.
Paul