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I’ll take $8 by end of 2024. Feels delusional at this point. I still recall when HDGabor told us to dump shares at $4.50.
I’m 10+ years in so I’m holding till it’s delisted (BO).
Current BO price?
Just curious what folks think we could get purchased for by YE?
My guess is $7-8. Seems fair based on COH, tax loss CF, and Europe.
I did have a dream about $11.50… hope that comes true.
Thanks!
I had written a “thank you” reply to those that responded to my “how do we get a second bite at the apple” post… but I deleted it bc it sounded too bearish in what I feel is coming…
My worry is that this recent run-up is a precursor to another cash raise. Analyst upgrades, pumped up guidance, etc. it feels planned.
It just doesn’t feel right. Double in value in a week-ish!? We squeak out CF+ and now boast this to the public and say “look at us - another raise gets us around the corner!”
I’m ridden with PTSD so maybe there’s more to this increase… but I’m skeptical.
I appreciate all of the replies!
I moved on from the investment (emotionally) after the Du debacle. But damn it would be. Ice to see six figures again. Pipe dream though it maybe.
The way I see it - this recent run up - couple with upgrades - might be a precursor to a dilution. No rationale as to why… just a gut feeling given the history of our dilutions and timing with earning and analyst remarks.
Even if we don’t do a raise, which I hope we don’t…. I just don’t see how we pull this thing off. I’m a holder through and through bc fuck it… but we need to get Europe figured out.
Do we think this is now a 2-3 year play?
PharmacyDude and I used to think Europe was $12 alone… but then Germany happened. What is the value there? And what about ROW? China?
Sigh.
My biggest fear:
We all believe a second bite at the apple will come but it doesn’t…. I remember the AH trading post ad com and screenshot ring my portfolio. What an idiot I was then.
What gives us that opportunity to sell at prices we are happy with? I struggle to see it now. We are solely reliant in execution of business not the hype.
Nice to have the week we’ve had but would love some perspective from others that believe value will be derived from various places.
Thanks
Cam
I too am in NC (Raleigh)
That is the only chance we have at this point. Or that Singer blustered through in order to drive them to review his briefs in more detail.
Either way, my stomach is in my throat once more. What a shame it is that we drew this panel.
I’m looking at those in particular. And yes you’re right. I know the risks. Just assessing if anyone is looking at anything particularly juicy.
I’m talking about “writing/selling” options. Not buying and or exercising.
I presume those have moved significantly since you did. You intend to stay with or buy back at some point?
Given this recent move I’m looking at $10-12s for June but can’t decide. If shares get called with BO then no CVR.
I find myself reverting to old, dreadful habits
-Covered Calls-
Anyone looking at writing some calls? If so, which exp and strike?
This move has to do with oil option contracts and USO (ETF) needing to roll holders from front month to back month (April) then to front month (May) etc.
Markets are in contango! Sell inexpensive front month to buy expensive back month.
This contango probably won’t go away anytime soon (or its negative yield).
Cam
J,
Schwab, Fidelity, Etrade, TD are all feasible brokers with good tech affirms. I’m sure they cater to international customers (options included). Can’t imagine it would be an issue.
That said, do your homework before you delve into those “widow maker” instruments!
Best of luck
Cam
Hate to give you this answer, but it depends. With Amarin I would envision a 3-6 month timeline to completion and cash disbursed to shareholders.
Citi Note
Amarin could trade to $24 on patent litigation win, says Citi Shares of Amarin have rebounded over the last couple of weeks in part due to investors getting increasingly comfortable that an at-risk launch by generic competitors appears unlikely, Citi analyst Joel Beatty tells investors in a research note after the company hosted a conference call that included updates on COVID-19 and the ongoing patent litigation with potential generic competitors. The key catalyst for the stock is the outcome of the patent litigation, though the value of Vascepa in Europe "should not be overlooked for adding meaningfully to the valuation," adds Beatty. The analyst believes Amarin could trade at $24 per share upon a patent trial win, or $5 per share upon a loss. Further, Beatty points out that Vascepa's payer coverage continues to improve. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on Amarin with a $6 price target. The stock closed Monday up 34c to $6.39.
Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3071481
Jeffries Note (the fly)
Amarin's Vascepa launch continues to be one of best in biotech, says Jefferies 06:45 AMRN Jefferies analyst Michael Yee noted that Amarin reported strong Q1 results that handily beat consensus and was planning on raising 2020 guidance prior to COVID-19, which he said is evidence that Vascepa's launch "continues to be one of the best launches in biotech." He thinks Amarin remains an interesting play for investors with a 12 month horizon given the attractive EU value, which could be worth $2-$9 per share, and U.S. "call option" on the Vascepa patent ruling appeal, which could be worth up to $20 in the case of a court win. He maintains a $7 price target on Amarin shares and keeps a Hold rating on the stock, citing his view of the near-to-mid-term uncertainty until closer to an appeal decision and his view that M&A is unlikely until the patent decision is resolved.
Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3071501
Xb, thank you for posting.
Thanks for the update. I missed the Leerink attorney note. What did that attorney say?
BB, given the uncertainty of US market - cash is key at the moment.
Thanks MM
I disagree on BO + CVR. I think he is conservative and this is the risk/reward play here. The appeal is officially an “all in move”. CVR is only away to address this and benefit shareholders in + or - light.
I certainly didn’t. Was too busy thinking about how we’d be back to $18-20 after case win and up to $30 when market recovered.. and then of course a $50-60 BO. I saw nothing but green.
Greed is a helluva drug.
John Thero:
I have, what is likely to be, an extremely unpopular opinion to offer.
After some self reflection and some sobering discussions with PharmacyDude, I’ve come to realize that I (we) ((all of us)) should be a little more grateful and thankful for JT. Let’s look at why:
1). Cash raise in 2019 - we all bemoaned this... but now it proved to be the right thing to do. We now don’t need to raise today (for now).
2). Delaying EU application - we couldn’t figure out what was taking so long. Looks like the later, conservative file was definitely the way to go... now we have more time to make a decision post case. We are not as rushed as we could have been had we received approval sooner.
3). Delaying EU decision (partner, sell, ??) - this is perhaps the strongest move made to date (in hindsight). Had we partnered sooner and settled for cash up front + royalty of xx%... then we’d have very little upside other than the full blown gambit that would be the appeal. We’d really have nothing then royalty potential (for sure) and everything else would hinge on a very tough appeal. Our shares would be languishing at $3-4.
Another important point to make... there are lots of individuals questioning the decision to go to trial vs settling. I don’t think settling was ever an option. If it were, then JT would have made the decision to do so - for sure. Maybe the asking price was way too unreasonable... I have no idea. But I don’t think JT would have every risked the entire US market on a bench trial in Nevada. His track record shows that he’s not that stupid.
So yea, IMO JT made calculated decisions to protect the company. I think he and others knew there was the risk of losing and decision needed to be mad for survival. Ultimately, these decisions have given the company the ability to operate operate from a position of some (very small) leverage with a negative ruling on the case.
It’s all there. We just couldn’t see the forest from the trees at the time.
Anway... here’s to a BO + CVR!
ABFC, that is exactly where I am with my valuation. I think it’s probably closer to $12-13 cash. CVR... no clue. It would be at least that much.
Tis’ the only way I say!
Marki - do not put any stock in this. I can assure you that Elisabeth would never say such a thing. It’s not true.
Dancing, What you suggest is a full blown gambit. If we don’t win, then what? We’ve risked a lot (more) on another unknown. The biggest unknown should have been R-IT trial...
Now that we know the science is real and that we are (as of now) dead in US market, the highest (certain) value capture for shareholders is to sell our valuable assets and capture more value thru CVR. This is a win/win for all parties.
If we go the route you suggest it could certainly work if appeal is won. I just don’t see how it’s best if we lose.
Thanks in advance!
Cam
All fair points. We will know soon enough.
Kiwi, totally agree. One caveat: I don’t think they sell rights unless they sell company. Fight for appeal and win gives you CVR. I certainly want the cash if they sell rights - so a special dividend would be in order. Similar to what MSFT did in early 2000s. But again I think it’s sell entire company.
IMO Rose, the pathway to best value is to sell the assets we have.
If BO: BP and AMRN have to figure what EU is worth based on estimated sales of 10 years (protected). RoW less valuable. Today, EU is our only real asset. Now, the CVR is far more complicated. It will likely include $$ for both US sales (likely)and new indications (not as likely). You might see $12 CVR with progressive payouts based on revenue milestones (time + cumulative) and new trials. But we are not in position of power. (Unless multiple bidders)
If license deal, then you know they believe we will win appeal (but they don’t know judges or likelihood that procedural error(s) will be enough to turn decision). If we lose, we are completely toast. You cannot make that wreckless of a decision at this point.
The other option is to keep EU and RoW - say screw US. And ramp up sales there. But that’s nearly as idiotic as licensing given risks.
other way out is a settlement that staves off generics.
Now if you’re managing risk and maximizing value, BO + CVR is the only way to do it. Period. That’s it.
To add... other than a settlement that doesn’t violate FTC agreement and prevents generic entry for meaningful time (I don’t think this likely)...
BO + CVR (if AMRN can get it)... is the BEST pathway forward IMO. The driver now is the small window we have with EU launch and BP desire to prep and make most of exclusivity there. EU is our pawn, turned queen on the board, after our first queen (US market) was slain.
I don’t know what value we will see for either BO or CVR. $12-14 BO + $15-20 CVR would certainly work for me
Cam
Juslin, You receive cash for your shares and a new ticker enters your account. That ticket will trade on the open market (NYSE) and you can sell it if you’d like but only for whatever buyers will pay. If AMRN hits milestones then you receive cash in exchange for CVR.
For reference, look at Bristol Myers Acquisition of Celgene. Celgene received $9 in CVR rights for 3 drugs yet to get approval. That ticker is currently trading at $4/CVR. And the full $9 is only realized by holder if the 3 drugs reach approval.
Best
Cam
HDG & O
The Bristol Myers - Celgene acquisition contained a CVR for three CELG drugs.
Ticker for the CVR is BMYRT - currently trading at $3.97 with a potential payout of $9 should all 3 drugs get approval. When it initially began to trade it was around $2/CVR.
If we get a CVR it will be tradeable as HD said and value will be determined by the market.
I am firmly in the BO + CVR camp if no settlement is imminently available. The decision should be made in the next 30-60 days based on EU timeline. If the company partners for EU/RoW I will be shocked.
What a lesson in greed this has been (for many of us). File it away for yours future benefit.
All the best,
Cam
Thank you for the reply. These were my assumptions as well.
Bfost, thanks for posting. I’m curious, once generic V is available, will you prescribe it over V? I’m sure that presents a tough decision for you.
Added 1500 shares over last week Or so - first add in last few years. Bought a myriad of other positions as well, but glad to have this chance. Don’t expect a snap back recovery but very happy to get things on sale!
Can’t believe it $8.5x this morning - had to check news feed for patent ruling lol.
Best of luck everyone. This too shall pass!
Best of luck to you STS. Too many people say, I’m waiting for it to go lower.... and then the opportunity is gone.
Look at last 11 years...
It always amazes me...
When your favorite store advertises a great sale, people go running in to buy all they can - typically fad items or depreciating goods.
When investments go on sale, people have no appetite to buy that which can make them more money down the road.
When a store is selling their goods at a discount, do you go to that store and ask them if you can sell your items alongside theirs for a discount?!
Stocks may be 10% cheaper in a month, but they are much cheaper than 2 weeks ago when we were all complacent.
GIFT:
This is certainly painful for any long (of any stock), but today’s price is a GIFT for anyone with the ability to buy. This downdraft has nothing to do with earnings.
3 things are driving this market downdraft:
1) The S&P was trading at 19x earnings compared to a traditional 16x.
2) CoronaVirus is a massive noisemaker and has potential to stymy global growth. This is a short term issue which will resolve.
3) With Bernie as front runner for presidential nominee that’s arguable the biggest negative impact on equities.
Long story short, we are $12 off our highs. If you have powder, I would start putting it to work now. If you didn’t need to sell your shares to pay for bills tomorrow, then keep a stiff upper lip.
Cam
SCRIPT #’S for 1.10.2020
TRx: 9,437,000 pills or 77,892 Rx
NRx: 4,408,000 pills or 36,734 Rx
Have a great weekend everyone.
Cam
Post #240258 by PharmacyDude is not getting the attention it deserves.
Hopeful for a resolution in next 24 hours.