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I can't argue with that statement. I have projected a bottom of 1.05 but I won't be surprised with .98. If it goes below that.........we got a big f******g problem
We are getting close to a bottom IMHO. I expect a buy point of 1.05 but this is close enough for me to start some buying. Ask price of 1.12 is really cheap. Anyone disagree?
SJ, I make more mistakes than anyone when trying to time my trades. But I did get lucky with a Roth conversion . I moved a significant number of shares valued at 1.24 to a Roth account. I sold most of them at 2.50-3.00, reinvesting in dividend paying stocks. Of course I have to wait until 2020 to start the tax free withdrawals. This proves that good luck can happen.
An excellent question SJ. Maybe there will be a news release when patient recruitment begins (or not).
My confidence in Peter Nielsen is exhausted. I don't think I will live long enough to see this company succeed.
But we are getting close to a new buying opportunity (think $1.05).
Details of the Ib/IIa CML study: enrollment will begin November 2016. The Ib portion will be a safety study using increasing doses of BP1001 along with dasatinib to determine the optimal dose of BP1001. The IIa study will use a fixed dose of BP 1001 (as determined from the Ib study) to test the efficacy of the combination BP 1001/dasatinib. They anticipate 46 patients over three years.
NEWS! Clinical trials.gov shows a new phase 1a/2b study approved for BP1001 in CML. Active recruiting has not yet begun but at least we are moving ahead with this safety study before starting phase 2 for CML.
I do not understand why We don't have IND for Bcl-2 and why there is no talk about TNBC/IBC phase 1.
Barcharts analysis: short term 80%sell, medium term 100%sell, long term 100% sell.
Support level 1.22
Pivot point 1.33
Resistance 1.44
Other than that, things are looking pretty good??????
I do not think that the weak PPS is related to the ongoing trial. We will wait until the first nineteen patients are treated before any info is tabulated and released. In the meantime we can hope that the IND for Bcl-2 is approved and we get approval to start phase 1 in IBC/TNBC.
Thank you love.
What is going on this morning? A big buyer jumps in to push the PPS upward. News or rumors? Hopefully this will end our downward slide but only if we have continued buying.
Three study sites are listed for the phase 2 study: MD Anderson, Baylor Scott & White, Kansas Cancer Center. The original plan was to have a total of five sites.
Is $1.40 a buying opportunity? I'm not sure. It could drop more, the next support level is 1.29. The R&R conference could give us some news but unlikely.
Tyrone, who is Peedee?
A third cancer center is listed for the phase 2 study: University of Kansas Cancer Center along with MD Anderson and Baylor Scott& White. I hope they are treating patients by now.
Next support level is $1.54. It looks to me that the trend will pull us below 1.50 and I plan to start looking to buy (again). Someday we will have phase 2 data for BP 1001. Someday we will apply for IND for BP 1002. Someday ...........................
Of course that's too long but they will not actually come close to finishing in 2018. We all know that. It is also disappointing that only two centers are listed as participants: MD Anderson In Houston and Baylor Scott White in Temple, TX. My understanding was there would be five centers involved.
BIG News. Clinical trials.com shows BPTH is now actively recruiting patients for the phase 2 study of AML! .....finally. We should hear more about this on Wednesday.
Leaking a little? You are joking, right. It's more like the motor blew up. BioPath has not even started the phase 2 study that investors believed was ready to go in January 2015. I cannot see any reason to say the stock price is headed up. When they actually do something the price can go up assuming positive results.
According to clinical trials.com, there is still no active recruitment for the phase 2 study. I guess things have happened so fast that the company did not have time to get ready for the next phase.
I think we are definitely back in the $1-2 channel and currently fading. I sold the majority of my shares at 2.50-3.00 and had a healthy profit. I think I will buy back in when I feel that a bottom is near or news pending. Someday I still believe there will be a big reward.
Yes, Blairsoldman, the last Friday in June is the day that the Russell indexes are reconstituted. BPTH was added to the index in 2014, deleted in 2015 and added again in 2016.
Support level is now 1.70. If we dropped below that level, I think we could expect 1.35-1.40 but hopefully we are rebounding today and will start back towards the $3 range (if we get some help with positive news).
The clinical trials.gov site still states "not recruiting"
It was obvious that cash was needed and our shares would be diluted but I cannot feel good about this program. The board of BPTH is charged with protecting shareholders value. This plan lowers our value.
If my math is correct , the institutional investors who buy these units will pay $1700 for 1000 units. When the warrants are exercised they would pay $1150 for 500 additional shares. This is an average of 1.90 per share. Our shares were valued at 2.20 just before the announcement and were recently at $3........so, we lose.
Now if I was still a buyer, I would jump on the present price below $2 but I am now in the "hold" category having already sold most of my shares.
Russell reconstitution happens at the close today. I cannot understand what "magically" happens at 4 pm but last time the price dropped so be prepared.
I used the term "recent" in regards to the 1b study. As I understand their explanation, they have chosen to proceed with the 60 mg dose and have submitted that information to the FDA.it appears that both doses are effective and safe but the lower dose will lower costs in the phase 2 study. "The right dose is the lowest dose that is effective". I think I learned that in medical school.
I asked the investor relations contact, Doug Morris about the four programs listed in my prior post. It seems that all programs are on track. We should soon receive news about dosing patients in the phase 2 study. Some of the delay was related to the analysis of recent data and using the 60 mg dose rather than 90 mg.
the breast cancer data is delayed due to the necessity to repeat some of the cell-line studies. Clinical studies are a way off. The IND for Bcl-2 should happen "shortly". Doug Morris is much more cautious about setting benchmark dates than Peter.
I plan to be patient and "get rich slowly".
As we approach the end of qtr 2, we have reason to expect the following goals to be reached:
1. Start of multicenter phase 2 study of Grb-2 use in AML (this means patient recruitment and dosing)
2. Beginning of phase 1 study of Grb-2 in TNBC/IBC
3. IND application submitted for Bcl-2 treatment for follicular lymphoma
4. Beginning of phase 2 safety study of Grb-2 treatment of CML.
My bet is that none of these goals will be met by June 30. Anyone disagree?
The stock manipulation of the last few weeks is more obvious now. The investor who bought 218,000 shares at closing for 1.98 must have been one of the culprits who drove the price down from 3.00. Now he has a lot of cheap shares as the price rebounds.
Now, what can we expect on Monday when we get added to the Russell Indexes? I seem to remember two years ago that 9 million shares traded on that day but the price dropped significantly. Will that happen again?
Barcharts lists BPTH as a "sell" recommendation for the short, medium and long term. That comes from their technical analysis showing the precious drop in stock price over the last month. We are way below the 50 day moving average but still above the 200 day average of 1.79.
Resistance is now seen at 2.16 and support level at 1.76.
It appears to me that the recent decline is due in part to stock manipulation related to the Russell Index inclusion, so the technical analysis has questionable validity.
Looking at the bright side, that last second purchase of 220 k shares should indicate that is now time to buy.
A disaster day with high volume. Have the shorts overwhelmed us or is this just technical drop due to lack of progress in clinical studies?
We crashed through support level of 2.33 and that is not good.
Twinkie you make a good point. "The same posts are being made week after week". It seems to me this is year after year. I check in on a company (ARIAD) from time to time and find the same investors with the same misguided optimism waiting for the next big news when they expect the stock to triple in price. I think of them as poor investors because their emotions have overwhelmed their objectivity.
I sold 5% of my BPTH shares when it hit $3 but perhaps it should have been 95%. The longer this company goes, missing timeline after timeline, the higher the risk. If the June 30 timeline for the IND of Bcl-2 is missed..........what ya gonna do?
You're right. The only way I will have spare change is by selling BPTH shares.
BTW, has anyone noticed the company website has been down for several days?
Looks like we have another buying opportunity. Now under $2.50 but may drop a little more before rebounding.
Thanks to Snug and BPTH2008 for info concerning clinical trials.gov.
I share concern that active recruitment has not begun. It is also concerning that the estimated completion date is December 2018 but this may be logical since the trial period for each participant is 180 days. It may be quite optimistic to enroll 54 patients and get six months follow up data.
Snug noted that MD Anderson was the only center listed for the study but the trial is listed as a phase 2a, multicenter trial so we need further clarification.
Snug, how did you find the link to clinical trials.gov? There are over 2000 studies of AML listed but I could not find BioPath.
I am still perplexed at the stock analysis from S&P Capital IQ and Thomson Reuters. S&P Capital has updated with estimated loss of .02 for this quarter (2 qtr 2016) but positive revenue and earnings for the next two quarters. They raised recommendation from "sell" to "hold".
Thomson Reuters has similar projection of 10M revenue for 2016 and recommends the stock as "outperform ". I do not know where these numbers are coming from but BPTH has not released any information to suggest . The low volume also indicates that there are no rumors circulating.
The only way we could suddenly make money would be out-licensing the delivery platform or getting a partner to come in with cash payment.
Any thoughts?
Some interesting but weird data:
I noted that my brokerage house listed BPTH as having a "forward PE ratio" of 133. This indicates a projection of revenue and positive earnings in the next 12 months! This seems unlikely but I found two new analysts covering BioPath.
S&P Capital IQ has projected revenue of 2.3 M in this quarter and a total of $10M for 2016. They also put a "Sell" recommendation on the stock.
Thomson Reuters listed BPTH as "outperform" with a price target of $5.
I do not know what this means or where the revenue projection comes from.
Perhaps, this is what happens when one has too much time to read and study.
BPTH2008, I understand what you're saying........oink, oink. Many of us have been through this process..........but, no regrets, oink oink.
A good start for the week. We closed above the resistance level of 2.80 and had increased volume. I think we should make another run to $3 and then just need a news release to to make a really big move.
Increase in volume tells me we have someone expecting big news. (But how many times have I said this before?)