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VIX up 27% but UVXY down another 3.4%, now that is some serious contango. Unbelievable.
Damn, I though 1.45's were safe. Just stopped out for the quickest $3K loss ever. Quite the smackdown for anyone betting against gold and miners.
Very warm temps in the forecast for the entire East Coast, New York City to see 69 degrees by Thursday next week. For the first time ever recorded natgas storage numbers could finish the winter season higher than they started.
Still too early IMO.
Back in ETE $4.34. Surely every bit of bad news is priced in at this level. Positive news should bring a nice 30-40% pop.
Good luck to us all
1.30's are a good place to start loading UGAZ no doubt, all I'm saying is there is plenty of room to fall so be patient before you go all in.
I'd like to see another 15% daily drop before I start loading.
Brain cramp. 1.76 range was the previous low for natgas spot price (I think 1.67 was rock bottom) and I meant UGAZ below $1.00 not $2.00.
I think we have plenty of room to drop from here IMO.
RSI at 36.00, I think you're a little early for the party.
El Nino is in full swing and aside from a cold front attempting to push down into the northern and mid-west states the east and west coasts are very warm. RSI could easily slide below 20 and natgas will likely re-test previous lows in the 1.76 range.
I think we see UGAZ well below 2.00 before this reverses.
Good luck
Currently above 10.70. I covered pre-market for a .45 spread and went long at 9.21.
I love Mondays.
Shorts putting up a good fight at 32.42, multiple rejections so far. Not the gap up many were expecting.
Huge risk here. 15% dividend likely to be suspended and payout ratio is 1.14. ETE has to use debt just to cover it's current dividend let alone operating costs.
Williams deal more likely to fall apart as both companies have near junk credit ratings and dismal balance sheets. Credit facilities will be hard to acquire.
Best of luck, this is still a short after Friday's pop on short covering.
More pain to come for WTI and energy sector IMO.
Wow, WTI futures at 31.00 and climbing.
$2.10 at the open.
$$$$$$$$$$$$
Oil futures and US equity futures tanking AH as expected. Looks like today's pop to 29.00 was another head fake.
UWTI below 1.00 by next week.
EPZM. Ultra low float is 60% short, HUGE insider buys, news coming. Still flying under radar.
Watching EPZM. 60% of the float is short, HUGE insider buys this week.
Careful. That same "elongated bottom" happened at 3.77 and 2.68 as well. Both those "bottoms" were followed by huge gaps down.
Caveat Emptor
Time frame needed adjusting with today's head fake in the a.m. I'm expecting large funds to clear Thursday morning and if it's a down day I will add to a half position. Gut feeling is there is more pain to come so possibly a couple weeks out with UWTI below 1.50.
Lease payments on my crystal ball were too hi so I returned it. I have no idea when this ship turns around.
Once WTI breaks thru 30.00, watch out below. Never bet against Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley.
I'm currently down $15K on UWTI but expect a natgas type reversal when the players start closing out short positions on oil. It's gonna be unreal
Good luck to all
Shorts in full control, back to the basement we go.
Looking for bargains in the 1.90's UWTI.
Technical indicators on investing.com flipped from strong sell yesterday to buy late today. Bottom likely in the mid 20's but a dead cat bounce is due.
Short squeeze coming and I'll be fully loaded.
Cheers,
Sumo
Loaded 1600 more shares today. GUD is about to take off.
Natgas futures open flat instead of gapping up like many longs were predicting. I will continue to short UGAZ tomorrow and Tuesday if gas does pop.
NASA is calling this El Nino the strongest ever recorded with warmer sea and air temps as well as extreme and unpredictable weather for months to come. I see no fundamental reasons for natgas to continue this parabolic move upwards.
Good luck to all in 2016
Very logical post Marketwise, thanks. I went short UGAZ on Thursday and will likely cover and go short DGAZ if we see a re-test of recent lows for natgas in the 1.70 area.
Aside from a brief two day cold snap in upper New York, El Niño is in full effect with very warm temps being pulled up the East Coast by the split Jet Stream by Friday. The Mid West is warming up and 15 million + Americans are bracing for flooding due to warmer and wetter conditions to come.
Happy trading to all in 2016! It looks to be shaping up for some hi volatility and swing trade opportunities.
BINGO. Covered 2.22 pre-market. DGAZ
Went short UGAZ at 2.64, we'll see what happens overnight.
Temps are more seasonal on the East coast but no extreme cold in the forecast.
Nicely done. I left thousands on the table but no regrets, it's been a very good week trading gas and oil.
Cheers,
Sumo
I'm out at 5.84, got a sweet .90 spread. GASL
Took profits on UGAZ and loaded GASL. It's a total gamble but natgas moved 10% today, should be a pop coming for GASL.
Rumor has it GASX returns on Thursday, should be a good short candidate.
Good luck to all
Grabbed a healthy starter position at 1.36 today. Even if UGAZ gaps down again we should easily see a technical bounce to 1.40 in the coming week. RSI on DGAZ in the 90's and UGAZ at 15 and falling.
Maybe it's the rum and eggnog talking but hopelessness, doom and despair is upon us which is a pretty good indication it's time to start loading. Warmer weather forecasts for the next two weeks is mostly priced in IMO and the Fed rate hike might just be the catalyst we need for a reversal.
Good luck to all
Sumo.
jrock777. I would encourage someone with connections to Gerald to have him contact Jonathan Goodman at Knight Therapeutics in Canada.
They are sitting on nearly $500 million in cash and are aggressively seeking out partnerships with companies that hold late stage or approved assets.
GUD on the TSX exchange. The CEO's mandate is to sign win/win licensing deals and partnerships and has a genuine desire to advance assets like the one's held by AMBS. A partnership deal would also lend credibility to the AMBS executive.
AMBS needs cash and this opprtunity needs to be explored.
Regards,
Sumo
Thanks xrymd. Just loaded more at 18.57 for a full position.
CPG has never cut or suspended it's dividend so I think we're in good shape. These are rock bottom prices IMO.
Sumo
Took a starter position before the close, RSI is extremely oversold at 13 and falling.
Crude may be in for more short term pain but we'll get a bounce or two on the way down IMO.
CPG
Longs are putting up a good fight, bid support is building for a close above 2.40.
If end of day profit takers don't step in I will close my short position, not willing to hold over the weekend with the current up trend.
XONE on watch.
Questrade in Canada
Without a doubt the smartest way to play UGAZ/DGAZ or any 3X ETF for that matter.
Enjoy the profits
Guess I'm the contrarian here, I shorted UGAZ at 2.42.
PPS sitting just below the upper BB and hitting it's head on the 50DMA, I don't see a catalyst to drive and hold the price above current technical resistance. Especially on a friday afternoon.
Tight stop of course
Good luck to all
The way it's going... 1.50???
2.50 nat gas seems inevitable but will that hold?
Wouldn't touch UGAZ with a 10 ft. pole now
Stopped out at 3.66, looking for re-entry UGAZ
Good post, explains alot.
I went long UGAZ today but with a tight stop.
Nice scalp. It's crazy UGAZ was trading at nearly $40 this time last year, nothing seems to be able to get UGAZ out of the dank, smelly basement.