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Perhaps someone would want to ink a deal slightly earlier. After the first peekie, BP's leverage shrinks.
A partnership is dependent on the results of
SUNRISE
It could be even after the first peekie
In accordance with #2 of your analysis below, I care about the year in which the promised partnerships are coming to fruition. But maybe it's just me.
Who really cares about what
"next year" or the "upcoming year" means.
The ONLY EVENTS that will make a hoot about our PPS is
#1 Sunrise results and will we be able to sell our PILLS.
#2 A Partnership announcement
Everything else is just junk.
Lol. But isn't the year 2017, for example, a year in the singular sense, and also one that is forthcoming from the perspective of one speaking in 2014?
No that is mistaken given that it was said in 2014 and the plural of year was not used frivolously :)
Certainly an "if," but possible, imo.
The CA was over before the calendar year, but then it was appealed. In my non-professional opinion, the plaintiff's appeal brief was extraordinarily weak, so the only rational reason for them clinging so stubbornly (and seizing every opportunity to delay and drag out) is to act as a wrench in the machine and hope to extort a settlement by threatening to delay progress. Of course, it would take someone with inside information to know that there exists a machine in which to toss a wrench, but it would also take someone with inside knowledge to know about the partnership negotiations with AbbVie.
I have given much thought to the "coming year" matter. The statement was made with much confidence and certainty - it was prepared. If...and this is a big if...the CA dismissal is the only obstacle in announcing a partnership I can understand where SK may have thought it would be over before the end of calendar year. He was given legal advise and anticipated the CA being dismissed but the lawyers kept the statement ambiguous just in case. This is the explanation that makes most sense to me.
Applying that standard, it could be read to include any entire year subsequent to 2014. Which is to say, disingenuous. So let's not through frivolous the word frivolous around in such a frivolous fashion. ;)
That sentence can easily be read grammatically and correct for that matter to include the entire year of 2015. So let's not throw the word disingenuous around in such a frivolous fashion.
Giving SK the benefit of the doubt that he lives and speaks in the FY world, "over the next fiscal year" still would have been more precise, especially since at the time he was nearly two months out from the start of the next fiscal year. But if one really parses the language, "coming year" could refer to the next FY. We'll know in about three weeks.
Seems totally unambiguous and hard to see how anyone could interpret fiscal year. But, logic and obvious language usage does not apply to many. Remember there are those that argue the bullet points on a slide do not relate to the heading of the same slide.
It was actually used during the Q3 2014 Results Earnings Call on March 7, 2014. The term "upcoming" was not used.
From transcript:
With the Phase III study now underway, our main interest in partnering for the bavituximab program would be to allow us to be more aggressive in advancing new clinical indications, namely moving new indications in the later-stage development in areas such as breast and liver cancer. And we look forward to updating you as partnerships are brought to fruition over the coming year.
Nope. The term "upcoming year" was used during last year's 4th fiacal quarter conference call. The current fiscal year ends on April 30th. We have 29 days.
Guessing we are at the point where no matter how one defines the term year, we can say that partnerships have not come to fruition.
Partnerships? Fruition? Year? King? King? Anybody? King?
Wonder what's moving the price. Fruition? Year?
Looks like those partnerships that were coming to fruition over the last year still aren't coming to fruition until at least next Monday. All imo.
Hmm...lots of four decimal place trades.
Perhaps the most telling event today was the TD Ameritrade posted an "Option Alert" for a 1027 contract trade on their news feed. Last February they posted a bizarre reference to a Unemon post that seemed to be nothing but cover for someone needing a reason to justify taking a significant position. Something is up. All imo.
But without ANY DOUBT there is ALWAYS a reason why this happen. Certainly in that amount and combined with an unusual day volume (about 5Milj at this moment) of the PPHM share.
Very general exposure for immuno-oncology, but otherwise uneventful. The only potential positive is that it could indirectly point investors who do their homework toward PPHM. Just wasted my TV quota for the week.
The Sock Puppet would freak!
Maybe we're gonna buy DNDN for pennies on the dollar.. Lol
A bad day for Share Builder. Volume is back in the "significant" range.
Sock Puppet will have a cow.
If PPHM is on Cramer it's going to 5 per share in after hours.
Looks like they're messin with somebody's lunch. <g>
EBS - What do you make of today's action?
On a technical note, historically every time a candle similar to yesterday's formed when bouncing off the lower bollinger band there is a gap up in the next 5-10 trading days. This seems to line up with Dr. Yopp's presentation. If I had to guess, we'll get a fluff PR on the following Monday that will allow the company to sell ATM shares and at an increase in PPS of 20-30% from current levels IMO.
It could come any time over the next year, for any number of reasons, or for that matter, without any apparent reason. All imo.
Maybe not, but I firmly believe the risk is now in being out of the stock rather than being in. IMO, the stock is getting ready to make a major move that could come any day.
I think it's safe to say the none of the potential catalysts happened.
It's seem that all the three points you highlighted did not happened this year. And for the PPS target we are still far away it.
Good point. It must be this week then!
Technically speaking...
If a partnership was brought to fruition on 12/31 they would have 4 business days to announce it before violating any reg FD laws. So, maybe they did mean it. Yeah, lets go with that. It's a new year. I want to believe!
And they managed to hold PPHMP at $25 or better until the common shares were shorted. How about that? All imo.
The worst part about the "partnerships coming to fruition" comment is that it was in prepared remarks. That means someone purposefully put it in there, someone proof read it and someone else "ok'd" it. If you recall, the stock was in the upper $2s during that call. Subsequently, the preferred holders IMO were able to short 30 million shares to hedge their new investment and the common holders were left holding the bag. So, you have to ask yourselves, "What was the purpose of the comment?" Was it to actually deliver a partnership promise or was it more likely to create an illusion for common shareholders to drum up enough buying volume so the entire PPHMP position could be hedged?
I know what I think...and last time I checked there was no partnership coming to fruition this year. HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Did SK mean the close of market this year, or midnight? We want to be sure to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Words being used to convey Partnership Interest are inaccurately conveying the interest level. Maybe Peregrine should invest in a Websters Dictionary.
I'm just concerned with the terms "partner," "fruition," and "year" being used in the same sentence. Not much time left for this year..
All imo.
The Last 4 Earnings Call..The word "Partner" or the variations of it was mentioned 18 times in March 2014 and only 3 times during the last December 2014 Call. But heck.. there seems to be a lot more "Potential" now...
Wow...there must be some pretty big partnerships coming to fruition this year if they are going right down to the wire with the announcement(s). Must be lots of details to hammer out.
Just sayin.
Got to give management credit for forgoing any time off during the holidays in order to bring those partnerships to fruition before this year!
All imo.
Anything over $20 would be all hype, and will fall back into place when the day & swing traders exit. Sale potential for NSCLC can be readily quantified and SP will be reflective of that. What can really move the needle is partnering on all of the other IP that you mention. And if the company is still "going at it alone" when they get FDA approval, they will have BP suitors lining up at the door. All imo.
Eyebuy, with all due respect, your assumptions are at best worse case scenerio, short of failure of the Sunrise trial. I believe you are seriously under stating the market potential of Bavi. If Bavi gets approval, this stock seriously heads up well above $20, just on wall street hype alone and irregardless of what actual revenues would be. Also, highly doubt we will be much over 200 million shares by approval and i don't see approval taking until 2017....mid 2016 at worst and more likely a high chance of AA by end of next year. Partnerships will likely really come to fruition after first or second look in, so the need to raise more funding through ATM or preferred will likely end sometime next year. And remember, Sunrise is just for NSCLC, there are numerous applications beyond that and each has its own marketing potential. And with approval of one indication, AA might be easier with the other indications during earlier trial phases. And then when beta bodies are put into human trials, things will get even more interesting. In short, potential really is astronomical. However, i understand your frustration and it would appear that your enthusiasm has taken a big hit....ergo you are not as optimistic about making as much money in this stock than you used to be. Fear not brother, we are in good shape and on track....just a little more patience is required.
Hopefully the capacity will be for Bavi. CM as a stand alone is also profitable. Maybe they also want to take some idle cash off the balance sheet and build some assets other than IP. All imo.
Meanwhile some Sunrise sites have been running for seven or eight months. They may have already completed the planned treatment cycle for dozens maybe scores of patients. Peregrine management may be getting a sense of how the trial is running. No specific data just hints.
Perhaps the early vibrations are positive enough to expand Avid's capacity in anticipation of Bavi's commercial launch. Not likely I suppose, but they haven't announced new Avid customers or increased production needed for existing Avid customers. They are adding capacity for some reason.
Sweet dreams longs. Good news may just be heading our way, and don't we deserve it.
GLTA, Paul
Maybe someone will need to get the preferred price back to $25, and then get the common PPS over $3.00 so the lucky holders of the preferred shares can establish an arbitrage position by shorting the common at $3.00. All imo.
Might need to do that for newly issued preferred. No one is going to buy at $25 per share when it's trading below $22 now.
13 days remaining for partnerships to come to fruition this year.
Somebody fat fingered a bad trade...or maybe something is up.
All imo.
Interesting that 192 December $2.50 call options traded today at the ask of .10.
The only thing worse than someone jerking with the price is nobody jerking with the price. At least something is going on. <g>
If one would want to fill I think it is now.
Some party is playing the stairs (suddenly retracting lower bids to create a sudden quote spread and then order 100 shares to move the bid down).
Normally this means we are good for a strong up movement somewhere today.
Let's see.
Probably makes sense to already own the capacity in a validated facility. Disposable technology also affords maximum flexibility and accelerates start up ...no cleaning validation, etc. All imo.
Yes there is an FDA requirement.
Says, FDA Jeanette Woodcock herself in an interview that was posted here.
She argument it with the fact that if such a form of early access is granted and the public then wants the drug, it would be unethical to allow manufacturers not to be able to deliver.
And so she EXPLICITLY said that one of the things the FDA looks at for granting it is the capacity. Now that being said doesn't mean you need to OWN that capacity. I suppose that is you have the needed sub-contractors and some kind of agreement that you can call of GUARANTEED production batches on YOUR TIMELINE NEEDS it will be ok too.
Probably don't need shorts. MMs can accomplish that on their own with no buyers. All imo.
Could be shorts moving in with no buyers which can cause such swings to the downside with light volume. Especially with earnings expected after the close.
biopharm - you hit the nail on the head. Why are they doing this now? Also, disposable technology is plug-and- play, i.e., quick start up.
Carboat, you must think big and think Bavi.
Peregrine is not venturing into the business of rolling the dice and gambling on expansion of manufacturing facilities and "hope" there PS Targeting pipeline and 3rd party clients will be able to help them make use of the extra expenses of this manufacturing facility.
They need it now and if we are officially hearing about it now.... its up and ready "Soon".
I moved on from this manufacturing story months ago, after the 3 linkedin profiles sort of confirmed all this (especially after all 3 linkedin profiles were edited within 24 hours). Next, we have much bigger biotech backers from the Middle East that likely need to place some big oil money somewhere. Directly or indirectly.... Peregrine Pharmaceuticals would seem to be the ultimate benefactor.
Now back to piecing together some clues.... may need Shaggy and the Mystery Machine for some of it
The question I have is why they have a current need more than double manufacturing capacity.
Hey, aren't we about due for something completely inexplicable and unexpected, even if only for a day?
Took a flier on 33 Dec. 2.00 calls. Hail Mary into the end zone at the buzzer
Agreed. It's just hard to gauge the genuine volume during a rally nowadays. Algo-bots piling on for rebate money distort the market and imo also help hold the SP down. I could do without the additional "liquidity."
Would be nice to get decent volume
Or 3MM even....of real volume.
Wouldn't we all. Nice 10MM day with good news