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Yes, it is impossible to time the overall market but it is possible to time single stocks based on what is going on in their product cycle, buyouts, etc.
I am not currently a stockholder of ELTP. I have been in the past two years. I have a science background and pharmacological knowledge from dental school and having been a salesman for Sandoz Pharm back in the day. I know a little about the game and it is a game.
The FDA is screwing around with ELTP to delay the inevitable. Purdue and Pfizer both spend millions lobbying congress and the FDA to not do anything to harm their sales. Purdue is primarily a pain med company and they were fined 800 million 7 or 8 years ago because they were claiming Oxycontin was not habituating. They are desperately trying to keep ELTP and others at bay for a few more years because they know the crap is going to hit the fan soon.
The first thing that will happen is that the FDA will be forced to limit the prescription of opiates to the hospital or hospice setting and no prescriptions for outpatient beyond several weeks will be allowed and they will have to be ART and no refills. This collapses the opiate market at least in half. The market currently is for long-term patients usually with arthritis. It is a cash cow for Purdue and Pfizer. Most of them become dependent on opiates and many then switch to worse stuff because it is cheaper and they can get on every corner. ART helps with the experienced drug user who knows what they are doing. The newly prescribed patient just takes more pills than prescribed and that starts the snowball down the hill. ART doesn't help much here unless they know about snorting the stuff.
Then in 3-5 years there will be a breakthrough in pain management and the market for opiates collapses further. With help from the FDA Purdue and Pfizer can plan on a few more years of tons of profit from opiates. Every month delay for ELTP means millions in the pockets of the companies and the lobbyists who are fighting any change tooth and nail.
Bottom line--since the FDA is helping big pharma maximize their profits the only way to expedite the situation is to get congress to camp out at the FDA the way Darth Vader did at the CIA until they stop screwing around. I'm afraid that by that time the market will have decreased so much that ELTP may only be able to sell 50 million or so because doctors really like those fancy luncheons and secret trips to St. Lucia. Good luck all
First, this was unfortunate. Based on the FDA signals by moving up the PUDFA date by two months it looked like due to congressional pressure that we would be approved. I don't believe that the issue is large but it might be. I would ask that you stop telling us what Nasrat is thinking, doing, etc. etc. You don't know period! I personally believe that big pharma politics is involved. Pfizer and Purdue have lots to lose if this takes off. Purdue's stockholders are all physicians and its possible one of our naysaying board members if one of those and they aren't happy with the progress that has been made. We'll know Monday morning.
Sorry, but the only opinion that matters at the moment is the FDA and surgeons. You are not a surgeon. How many surgeries have you personally performed with robotic technology. That's right none. You have an agenda which is to promote Titan. The fact that surgeons have not responded to your silly request for input doesn't mean a thing. They are busy doing surgery and shockingly don't have time to read MBs. AS for Posilock and his claim of input from surgeons, anesthesiologists, and nurses or techs is all heresay. What in the world would anesthesiologists know about robotic surgery? That would be nothing. The surgeons are going to like this technology for several reasons including they get to be in close proximity to the patient and they have tactile feedback. The hospitals will like the price. How many will the sell? No one knows but your comment that you were not impressed and that's being kind is just sour grapes.
That depends upon when Collegium gets final approval for their first extended release ART product. They have tentative approval that was being held up by Purdue's desperate attempt to protect their patents but Collegium won recently in District Court and the FDA now will be asked for full approval with no barriers in sight. If Purdue appeals then there will be another delay but it appears that with no further appeal Collegium will beat us to market. Collegium is a component of the Russell 2000,3000 and with a stock price of around $16.00 they have institutional investors that we don't. The Yahoo MB and the IH boards for Collegium are basically inactive. Draw your own conclusions. I honestly don't understand how encapsulating the narcotic with fatty acids and waxes does that much but the FDA has been convinced. I have to admit that I'm nervous having spent some time in the trenches as a pharmaceutical rep. that this might turn out to be a price war and It looks like to me that the Collegium cost of goods sold is lover than ours because of the inclusion of naltroxone in ours. The lack of price movement in ELTP and our market cap. of 200 million compared to Collegium at 400 million tells me that the market is picking Collegium right now probably due to Russell index exposure. Its apparent that the Collegium people do not know about us and I have seen next to nothing on this MB about Collegium being a vital competitor. I thank that is short sighted and I am rethinking my position in ELTP. Whether our mousetrap is superior is yet to be proven and pharmacies and wholesalers will be resistant to stocking more than one of these new ART products from such small companies. I wish you all well but I'm going to sell.
NO, approval is not priced in by any stretch of the imagination. Also several of you continue to claim that 90% of those biotech companies that get a PUDFA date are approved. The FDA has a big pharma bias and even big pharma can be turned down. Very few biotech companies ever receive direct approval the first time. We will because its pretty simple application. Drug relieves pain and offers ART. The shorts here and you know who you are want you to think that approval is priced in because they have an agenda. Upon approval there will be lots of takeover rumors to drive the price towards a dollar in addition to the great news of approval with a fantastic pipeline to fulfill.
What are Purdue's revenues? Whatever it is that certainly is a market that Elite can target. And that is just the beginning. Don't need no crummy link or independent expert to size the opiate market. Please!
The FDA really frowns on self promotion of unapproved drugs or unapproved indications as several big pharmas can testify to. Now is the time with everything going on behind the scenes for a "quiet" period. The CEO knows what he is doing and in 90 days all hell will break loose so just be patient.
What difference does that make? This is the Elite board stay on Elite and stop name calling.
And you know this how? LOL
What difference does it make yet again? LOL
What iota of a difference does it make. The FDA required a small P3 which was accomplished with flying colors. All the rest of this is just noise.
The same geniuses that think statins save lives.
Hey Couch I'm long here too. I believe that Elite has a better mousetrap than Kempharm but the better mousetrap doesn't automatically win the cheese. Can you explain your comment about heat easily defeats the technology. My organic chemistry from 40 years ago says otherwise. If heat will defeat the technology then the FDA is dummer than I thought when I was a pharm rep. I believe the FDA is more concerned with crushing which is the easiest way to a good high. If addicts have to do something exotic to defeat the ART they will just go to heroin sooner. I have to admit I'm a little concerned about Kempharm being first though.
You really should educate yourself about FDA trials and how long it takes to perform them. A year for any P3 is pretty short. Many cancer P3 take 3 years or longer to complete.
The jump to .94 was because daytraders jumped in when Elite was one of the most heavily traded stocks for a few days. When the trendline didn't continue they jumped back out and the price cratered. You should judge Elite when the news justified a huge move. Hopefully soon.
Everybody should just take a chill pill. Its difficult to "market" products that aren't approved by the FDA. This is a very critical time and they don't want to rock the boat. There is plenty of time to market after the first approval. My guess is that the marketing will be done by a bigger fish.
Funny thing...Closed up on Friday with tons of selling according to your statistics and today it has more buying and the price goes down. Me thinks your source is screwed up.
Absolutely not true. There have been many biotech firms bought out that did not have any revenue. In fact many of the same were years away from approval. We are maybe 6 months away.
The problem with opiates is that while efficacious for acute pain and quite appropriate the idiot doctors are using them in chronic pain like RA and fibromyalgia etc and the patients get addicted and after shopping doctors and having their supply cut off they switch to heroin which is cheaper and easier to get. Just ask those in the Northeast and Florida where there are terrible problems. My best friend just buried his wife and while I can't prove it I'm willing to bet she died of an opiate overdose complicated by alcohol addiction.
Elite's technology really helps with those snorting and shooting up. Now if we could find a way to limit the number of tablets taken we would have the whole problem covered.
As long as it isn't a two particle approach then they don't have a case. If Elite were at all worried about this something would have been done already. This is "new" art and certainly patentable.
The idea that Purdue would have a basis for a patent infringement lawsuit is laughable. They cannot patent "abuse deterrent" opiods in general and have coverage against all technologies. Their technology is inferior and they are desperate. I personally believe the good "doctor" works for Purdue in some capacity and is her to spread FUD. It won't work this train is coming down the tracks and soon!!!
The usual statistical hurdle is P=.05 for approval and the P3 destroyed this by 50X! The shorts better cover now while they can with less pain. Clearly this is going to be a huge winner and will move North of a dollar after the first of the year with news from the FDA/Nasrat.
Epic already knows who the big pharmacies are they are the big chains. Also, having interacted with a pain clinic when my mother was alive I discovered that they don't use narcotics which explains why the waiting room was always almost empty. They use neural blocks and gabapentin, and amitriptylene etc. and some are starting to use tumeric and other homeopathic meds. Pain doctors make money from doing procedures and not by writing for oxycontin. For example they charge 3-4 thousand for a neural block that takes an hour as opposed to seeing 4 patients and charging $600.00 for an office visit and dealing with addicts in their waiting room. The real market here is the FDA. Until they mandate ART formulations it will just take brute force especially when there is a large price difference between generic and ART. I was a pharmaceutical rep. and the best way is to get the influencers to embrace your technology. This is where congress can be helpful. Call your local senator and rep. and insist they do something about the abuse that is going on. Instead of investigating Benghazi they should be investigating opiate dependence and what can be done about it. Answer? ELTP
I'm still here and expect a five banger in the next 2 years. I was hoping for a ten banger but the market cap is getting above 2 billion at a five banger. Go ELTP! I really believe that after the pump is primed next summer we get bought out and big pharma get a bargain at probably a small premium. Do we have a poison pill?
Luckyone,
This was a private sale with owner carry terms. The owner will retain the title because they are the lienholder until the loan is paid off. It was structured this way to reduce capital gains taxes. Even if it was a traditional sale it might take several months for the sale to be updated in the public records. Apparently you haven't been involved in any real estate transactions. There are thousands of Chinese restaurants "transferred" to new owners this same way. Its kind of like an annuity for the seller.
Apparently you don't watch the market. I knew eventually today that USMJ would capitulate to the market and it did but not horribly. I'm buying more.
Apparently you haven't seen anyone high on THC. He's just looking at Malete the cute blonde to his left. You have to suck really hard on hemp to get high!
Hey MKelly,
Thanks for responding. WTER does have more distribution. I agree our product is superior but the better mousetrap doesn't always win. Sometimes being first (I came from the pharmaceutical industry) is a big advantage. If the website is correct there is no fluoride in our product and there is in WTER. People who shop at Whole Foods etc do not want fluoride. I know I don't want it even though I came from a dental school background. WTER's market cap is 8X ours so there is some catchup there I hope by the end of the year. I haven't decided what to do.
I'm long for 240,000 shares. Not much. I've made some money the past few weeks but I'm wondering what the potential is for large moves. WTER has been in the market for a couple of years with a similar product and they are projecting only 10 million in sales this year. They are in Costco and many other places we are not. Doesn't seem to be alot of enthusiasm for oxygenated/high ph water. I personally would prefer it if it were carbonated and we could attack Peregrino and the other European bubbly waters. They should consider offering an Alkame with "gas" as the Europeans say.
I'm thinking about selling. Someone talk me off the ledge.
As a matter of fact I got my case two days ago from the UPS man via Amazon.com. I'm not a bottled water freak and I have only used two bottles to make my morning coffee but this water feels like liquid silk in your mouth. I'm not jumping over tall buildings with a single bound Its difficult at age 63) but I'm buying more of the stock on Monday. I think this going to be the next big thing in the water market.
1961,
You apparently have done no DD at all. Africa Oil is an explorer that has found one tremendous basin and is looking for several more. They have had a few dry holes and a few that only found gas in the past year and if you have noticed the price of oil is now slightly below $80.00 so most oil companies and especially those with no production have taken a beating. The Lundin family has never failed and they will not this time either. In two years this will be a $20.00 stock or more. I anticipate a buyout soon thereafter and I'm holding on for $50.00.
Hey Red,
Sorry everybody this is off subject.
I was looking for a way other than edibles to give my elderly mother THC for her serious chronic pain from breaking her neck in 1974 driving to her teaching job. She passed away last November.
Anyway, for anyone interested "Green Dragon" is made by processing the weed in your food processor until very fine. You place the powder into a large jar add enough Everclear to about fill the jar tightly close the jar and then you wait for a few weeks for the Everclear to extract the THC from shredded plant substance. Then you filter out the vegetation and what is left is a green liquid that can be added to orange juice or even better your favorite tequila plus the orange juice and a dash of granadine for a tequila sunrise that will knock your socks off. Thhis eliminates the smell of smoke and the damage on your lungs and is more controllable than edibles.
Sorry everybody! Go AOI!
Hey Red,
You will have to forgive me my mother was blonde and I'm from Colorado so the air is heavy with the evil weed. Actually I prefer "Green Dragon" which eliminates the smoking thing.
I have a couple of MJ stocks and made some money about a month ago but the SEC has decided that unless you are a fat cat on Wall Street we can't allow anyone else to make any money.
Glad you are back.
biotechbozo
Hey Red,
Glad to see you. Lurking is a whole lot more interesting when you are posting. I would like to make some quick money too! What the heck is MJ.
Glad you are still around.
biotechbozo
What happened to Red? I looked back thinking I missed his goodbye post but don't see one.
I'm a lurker long but try to pay attention to the competition. Any of you smarter than me out there understand why Novavax has twice the market cap. of our little vaccine company? The technology is similar but no EP for Novavax and their clinical pipeline isn't that much further along than ours and is limited to bugs and no HIV and no cancer story. What am I missing?
AF is playing the percentages. Most biotechs fail. He is comparing INO to VICL which failed around a year ago. I owned both and AF was saying for a couple of years that VICL would fail and it did even though their P3 went on for almost a year longer than expected. VICL was also using a DNA vaccine but no EP. The secret apparently is mostly with EP or so we hope. However, if AF is short INO or any others that he bashes then surely it is a SEC violation. Does anybody have info. about his personal holdings?
This has got me thinking about Roche's intentions. The small upfront payment has gained them access to the kingdom. I hope it isn't their intent to copy the EP device and make enough changes to satisfy their IP lawyers so they can basically steal INO for 10 million. Wouldn't be the first time. Hope Kim is as smart as we all think!
Red,
How would assess the opportunity with Linc compared to AOIFF. I apologize in advance for being a little off subject. I own both but respect highly your opinion.
Regards,
KenL
You are quite correct...it is PRD. I bought a little a month back. Its moved up some. Looks like a rework of mostly existing fields using fracking technology similar to the Bakken where some of the big guys turned their noses up 20 years ago when traditional drilling couldn't get the stuff to the surface. I also have some NZ as a swing for the stands sort of a play.
I think the closest thing to a surething is obviously AOIFF but wonder if any of you have some of the Australian shale play that is being touted by at least one of the biggest newsletter experts and he has it in his speculative portfolio. One company controlling an entire Bakken formation sounds pretty good to me. I think they are just waiting for CNOOC to step up to the plate.
This really is the best forum on the net. No bashing and no trash talking. What a pleasure!
Hey Red,
Thank you again for sharing some of your holdings. I also have Graphite One & Shamaran. I have a science/medical background so in addition to the energy sector, rare earths, and some horrible junior miners I have some biotech. Inovio is making quite a move and will be announcing some results on their HIV immunization based on DNA and electroporation. I believe this is another 10 banger within 2 years.
However, Africa Oil is my largest holding and will continue to be.
Hey Red,
I'm from the school of underpromise and over perform so yes, you are correct about the 42,000 and that's why I invested. I knew it was big but who would have believed me if I stated 42,000.
You got any of this action?
Thanks Red,
Ken Lambdin