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"Disagree -- it means little. Insiders have been selling heavily over the past 5 months. Meanwhile, Nasdaq is up nearly 32% over that time period"
And with this wonderful argument we may conclude that taking the other side of the insider orders is a prudent investment decision. Because this is exactly what people have done since May. Think about how stupid this makes the insiders look since they could have easily sold now at even higher prices than they sold in May.
So in theory we might end up with something like this: after the insiders sell all of their shares the market will explode up for a while since supply will dry out. That is until the insiders print more shares which they can sell at even higher prices and the market will go up further on the basis of the simple extrapolation argument made above (insider sell = "buy" for J6P cause that's what happened in the last few months).
Where were you when they were looking to award the nobel price in economics?
Train Guy: I must have missed that. November 2001, October 2003 some things never change. LOL
Train Guy, thanks for posting the Erlanger stuff. Not quite what I call earth shattering. I am referring to the part about being in a confirmed long term downtrend but with the intermediate and short term trends up. Didn't need Erlanger's special insight for that but it sure was worth the price :)
TrainGuy Erlangers option model is very interesting. Do we know if his indicator is at an extreme reading right now?
Thanks,
Duper
Not me Bear, only 03 at the moment
Metsin, I am with you on this. Zeev thinks the fed gambit will succeed, end demand will eventually pick up beyond what the short term stimulus allows for, the economy will then heat up, cap spendingup, will get unemployment to downtick for a bit, then rates will go up on demand-for-capital reasons which will eventually bring down stocks. The latter to occur in 2005 with nothing but clear sailing buy-the-dips environment to the 04 election.
We differ slightly from Zeev's macro picture. I think what we are saying is that the gambit will not work and after the stimulus wears off the consumer will stop spending. He'll stop cause he will already have bought what he needs (fancy car, fancy house, fancy furniture, etc. etc.). The market will smell that this is coming early next year BEFORE it happens since it looks at least 6 months forward in time. Conclusion: we will already be scraping the bottom by the time 2005 arrives. I'll take a wild guess and say that the environment in 05 will be extremely difficult to trade as volume dries up and the best traders who are still standing are going at each other. I assume that's kind of what you'been thinkin as well, right?
More on Grasso Smasso:
NEW YORK - Pressed by regulators to explain the lavish pay for chairman Dick Grasso, the New York Stock Exchange revealed an additional $48 million in deferred compensation Tuesday but said Grasso would forfeit it - after a payout of nearly $140 million announced two weeks ago.
Now why on earth a hard working man like Grasso would want to forfeit the additional $48M? I sure wouldn't. He certainly "earned it". With that kind of money he could buy a decent airplane or a pretty good boat. What a dummy!
Are you ready for 4.5% GDP growth?
Blue Chip Forecasters Turn More Bullish
Wednesday September 10, 12:01 am ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Private economists have turned more bullish on the U.S. economy's prospects in recent weeks and have raised forecasts for third-quarter growth sharply, a closely watched newsletter said on Wednesday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030910/economy_bluechip_1.html
There you have it, economists are turning MORE bullish! Collectively I don't remember a single time when these guys have been right about anything.
Duper's prediction: We top in September between 1040 and 1070 on the S&P500 index. We test the top in January-Feb, and drop like hell into the election.
This is clearly a "non-issue" that doesn't even need to be reported. Greenie can print that in 10 minutes tops.
phineas, Why the 19th and not the 24th?
Metsin, Greenie already on the bid. Buying techs, lol.
I read the same thing. Says nasdaq in bubble, but rest fairly valued, long term stay the course etc, etc. Also says SOX leads overall market so if Nasdaq falls, SOX falls which brings down overal market even though it's fairly valued.
What a bunch of jibberish. Points out that stocks with no revenue growth significantly outperforming those with good revenue growth. Then he forgets to mention this is characteristic of bear market rallies. Clear evidence that even well meaning people like the briefing guy have lost marbles and don't know what the h$#* there talkin about anymore.
The reason why you can't put a forward PE on the Q's it's because no one can come up with a good one. That's why the thing is runnin. If you could find a reliable PE then it would move like the S&P. Remember that in a bubble the more ambiguous the earnings the better the stock performance. It's a fundamental law.
Well done. But you don't know what he was thinking in March-April 03 and we know he didn't call the March bottom cause he would have blown the horn on his website to that effect. That said, the guy writes well and appears to have an organized thought process for his trades. If you try him let me know if you think he is worth a subscription. I might join you.
Zeev, interesting analysis but I don't "buy" all of it. Once the bubble burst the fed quickly came to the rescue but the market didn't respond. Foreign fund dlows dried up in early 01 if you recall.
Agree that first drop from the Sep highs will be bought at end of October. But no cyclical bull. A double top at best in Jan-Feb 04 and straight down from there.
IMHO 04 is the year Zeev, not 05. I expect most of damage will be done by 05. We'll be fixing things in 05 as we flatten out at the bottom and volume dries up.
"there is a catalytic event"
Excellent analysis. I couldn't have said it better. I have asked myself the same question, what type of event could possibly provide the catalyst to reverse this trend? I have concluded that it isn't gonna be blackouts, SARS, military spending on Iraq, terrorist acts, unemployment, corporate accounting shenanigans, heavy insider sales, extreme bullish sentiment, or even poor earnings and an economic slowdown. Market has already told us that much. Do you care to guess? By the way, do you remember "the catalyst" that broke Nasdaq at 5000?
MW, one more Q. His archives stop on April 12, 03. Since he writes once a week or so, why stop archiving in April?
MW, thanks, article dated Oct 12 for Oct 10 bottom but says he sent email to clients on Oct 4. Assuming he did, two things come to mind. The guy is good trader with solid TA knoweledge or he is good marketer that sends out many emails hoping he catches a turn. If one email turns out right he capitalizes by starting marketing campaign around it. "I called the top/bottom and here is proof". I have seen this game up close thats how I know. So if he sends out 20 emails a year calling for a major market turn I expect him to get one right. Basic question is what's his batting average on calling major turns? If its better than 20% I'd be very very impressed.
MW, interesting, thanks. don't use elliott wave and have to say that elliott guys have been looking for a top ever since the rally started. Says he predicted October 10 bottom ahead of time, do you know for a fact he did?
Alex, I wouldn'e expect any reaction from the market on this type of news. Al-Quaida must be feeling the pressure to do something cuz they have been rendered useless since Sep11-03 and they know they have disappointed. Market knows these camel jocks are all talk and no action. Dubya is kicking their a$$'es all over the world. Now with another $87B from congress dubya will be unstoppable on the war on terror. If only he could get the French to foot some of the bill.
marketwatcher, what model is that? for all i know we maybe looking at the same one! i an getting the same forecast from mine.
Bert, i'd say "insane". Insiders must be grinnin all the way to bank. Holly smokes!
Bert, Sep just started and it shows higher Sell/Buy ratio than August which was also record high. Do you know how they calculate it?
Metsin, slow down trading the 1-minute chart. Hit some golf balls and relax doode. We're not gonna crash yet. Bush gave his $87B figure yesterday with straight face on TV and market hits new highs. Nobody wants to be left out of this ramp.
Cool it doode, u make me nervous
"brief synopsis"
This forecast is based on my own cycles work. I have four cycles in four different time frames hittin tops in and around the last week of Sep 03. This last wave up we are experiencing now is driven by the fear of being left out the "coming new bull". All I can give you.
"haven't heard too many people mention ..."
I am already on record that Sep-Oct will be where the highs are made for the next 5 years. Then straight down with no continuation up. I think I am in the minority.
Metsin, testing 52W highs. We are gonna melt up 4sure. This week and next. Best news and upgds of the year soon to hit. On edge.
new bull market or new bull$hit?
"all sizzle and no steak"
This stock was trading at $6 a couple of months ago. "Spintronics" is supposed to be the steak. Largely untapped market. Makes new all time high at 45 on the open last week and closes down 30% when founder and CY sell. On record weekly volume. Float hits new high. Then AH it drops another 15% or so. I always thought that weekly reversals coming on volatility expansion along with record volume and record insider sales is the classic definition of distribution. But Zeev is accumulating says we there is more left in this stock. Is my analysis wrong?
Zeev, looking at the weekly chart of NVEC this thing is screaming "short me". The week of 7/21 it made a weekly reversal on record volume and proceeded to lose about 30% before rocketing back up to new highs. Last week the stock also made weekly reversal on new record volume. I am impressed that you are looking to accumulate in the low 30's. You are far too good a trader than I. Good luck.
You lost me. Are you saying that selling NVEC short at $32 is now THE trade because that's where the insiders sold it? SO get ready to open shorts when this thing climbs back up to 32?
"stocks are poised for even more upside next week"
Metsin, you turning bullish on me all of a sudden? Please tell me you not a closet long now. I'll be dissapointed after all the shortie stories you've been postin.
Tech upgrades to start hittin wires next week. I got blow-off spike top to occur over next 2 weeks. Nasdaq making "head" of head-and-shoulders top. Plan to short heavily on right shoulder. Someone said Fleck put small short on Friday. I think he's right this time.
Zeev, dumb question: Why NVEC seller comes out after hours to dump at $26 in thin market when he could dump during day at $32? Seller stoopid? Or genious cause he knows something.
Don't trade these story stocks but curious how to interprete this trading behavior.
"bend over and take it up the ass"
Didn't know you can use such language here. Very colorfull. I saw them also. The bear said he likes EBAY and AMZN too but wouldn't touch them even if they fell 60% from here. The bull was grinning as he said EBAY/AMZN/YHOO good to buy at today's levels. The bull basically proved that everybody now looking after own interests, I can't blame him. Problem I had with show was that bull didn't wear tag on forehead spelling "I am a liar".
But "can it be sustained"? Lehman thinks so. What's your opinion?
Metsin, you'll see lots more of this next week.
Lehman: Best Q3 Since 1999, Recovery Under Way
http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA321122&s...
Metsin, huge growth right here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A29859-2003Sep5?language=printer
This can't be it. We still got sector upgrades coming.
lim, wish I could accomodate you. But even if I did, my short term wouldn't be any better than Zeev's or even your own for that matter. But if you insist, I'd say 04 will be a dismal year and that the highs we are making right now and possibly over the next month or two will not be seen again for at least the next 5 years. Sorry can't help you more.
My boat still floats and has big hole on the bottom. How long before it sinks? don't know.