Metsin, I am with you on this. Zeev thinks the fed gambit will succeed, end demand will eventually pick up beyond what the short term stimulus allows for, the economy will then heat up, cap spendingup, will get unemployment to downtick for a bit, then rates will go up on demand-for-capital reasons which will eventually bring down stocks. The latter to occur in 2005 with nothing but clear sailing buy-the-dips environment to the 04 election.
We differ slightly from Zeev's macro picture. I think what we are saying is that the gambit will not work and after the stimulus wears off the consumer will stop spending. He'll stop cause he will already have bought what he needs (fancy car, fancy house, fancy furniture, etc. etc.). The market will smell that this is coming early next year BEFORE it happens since it looks at least 6 months forward in time. Conclusion: we will already be scraping the bottom by the time 2005 arrives. I'll take a wild guess and say that the environment in 05 will be extremely difficult to trade as volume dries up and the best traders who are still standing are going at each other. I assume that's kind of what you'been thinkin as well, right?
