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nflx getting crushed...well below 100 right now
drop in response to beige book...
The pace of growth slowed in the Richmond and Chicago districts in the six or so weeks ended in early October, according to Fed's latest Beige Book, and Kansas City noted a slight decline in economic activity.A number of districts took note of the strong dollar as hitting manufacturing activity as well as tourism spending.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2829566-beige-book-notes-slowing-economy
Golden Phoenix Advances 24 Month Acquisition Plan With July 2010 Signing of Purchase Agreement to Acquire 80% Interest in Vanderbilt Silver and Gold Project
Press Release Source: Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. On Wednesday August 25, 2010, 10:00 am EDT
SPARKS, Nev., Aug. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board:GPXM.ob - News) is pleased to announce that in furtherance of launching its 24-month acquisition plan, on July 6, 2010, it entered into a definitive asset Purchase Agreement to acquire an undivided 80% interest in the historic Vanderbilt Silver/Gold Mine ("Vanderbilt") in Esmeralda County, Nevada, as detailed in the Company's Form 8-K, filed with the SEC on July 8, 2010.
The Vanderbilt is adjacent to the Mineral Ridge property, which the Company maintains a thirty percent (30%) interest in via its membership interest in Mineral Ridge Gold, LLC; the joint venture entity that owns and operates the Mineral Ridge property with Scorpio Gold. The Purchase Agreement completes the letter of intent process begun several months ago with Mhakari Gold (Nevada) Inc.
"We believe properties like the Vanderbilt that sit adjacent to our Mineral Ridge Gold Project hold significant upside potential," stated Tom Klein, CEO of Golden Phoenix. "The signing of this definitive Purchase Agreement in July furthers the efforts for our recently announced 24-month acquisition plan."
The Vanderbilt is comprised of 44 claims, plus 3 patented claims.
"Modern mining techniques have not been applied to the Vanderbilt," continued Tom Klein. "What miners left behind as low-grade deposits in the early 1900s, could potentially be considered high-grade deposits by today's standards."
According to a report published by the U.S. Geological Service in 1906, the Vanderbilt was the first area to be mined on Mineral Ridge beginning in the 1860s and continuing into the early 1900s. Mining methods during this period were labor intensive and crude by today's standards. Rocks were often picked off the surface or explosives were used to follow a gold or silver vein into the ground one dynamite blow at a time. In order for a property to be productive, deposits needed to be rich.
Mr. Klein concluded: "Our expectation is that properties like the Vanderbilt have the ability to transform Mineral Ridge into one of Nevada's premium mining districts."
Vanderbilt is located just outside of Silver Peak, Nevada. According to local history, the town was so named because of the Vanderbilt Silver Mine.
Please visit the Golden Phoenix website at: http://www.golden-phoenix.com.
Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. is a Nevada-based mining company whose focus is Royalty Mining in the Americas. Golden Phoenix is committed to delivering shareholder value by acquiring, developing and mining superior precious and strategic metal deposits throughout North and South America using competitive business practices balanced by principles of ethical stewardship. Golden Phoenix is a 30% joint venture partner with Scorpio Gold on the Mineral Ridge gold and silver property near Silver Peak, Nevada, and owns the Adams Mine and Duff Claim Block near Denio, Nevada, and the Northern Champion molybdenum mine in Ontario, Canada.
"Safe Harbor" Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: The statements by officers of the Company, and other statements regarding optimism related to the business, expanding exploration and development activities and other statements in this press release are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the Company's business. Words such as expects, anticipates, intends, plans, believes, sees, estimates and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Actual results could vary materially from the description contained herein due to many factors including continued market prices for the Company's mineral products. In addition, actual results could vary materially based on changes or slower growth in the gold and base and precious metals markets; the potential inability to realize expected benefits and synergies in the Company's mining operations; domestic and international business and economic conditions; changes in the mining industry for base and precious minerals; unexpected difficulties in restarting or expanding production at the Company's mines; the need for additional capital and other risk factors listed from time to time in the Company's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings under "risk factors" and elsewhere. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release speak only as of the date on which they are made, and the Company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this press release.
For More Information Contact:
Robert Ian, Director of Corporate Communications (775) 453-4741
robertian@golden-phoenix.com
I dont have any idea what percentage of either Thomson or Blue Pearls shares were held by insiders. I'm much more beaten down and pessimistic now than I was when I looked into that situation and wrote that post. At this point my expectations are pretty freaking low.
And I do agree that insider ownership here is rather spartan and that's not emboldening.
I don't really understand your logic. If there is a very basic reverse split, let's say 5-1 as an example, if you have 100K shares at $.30, after the split you'll have 20K shares at $1.50. I think you understand that so I don't get what you are saying. The company will have the same market cap, whether it's 200 million shares at $.25 or 40 million shares at $1.25. Either way the company is valued the same and any future valuation would be based on the assets and performance of the company. So I don't see how there is an opportunity cost on a reverse split. If the assets and performance of the company merit a market cap of 200 million dollars it doesn't really matter whether there are 200 million shares priced at $1 or 40 million shares priced at $5.
This is something I posted on RB last May. If someone has the time and can investigate how the share structure changed when Blue Pearl merged with Thompson Creek it might be instructive to our situation in the future...
I just took a couple of hours looking over Blue Pearl's (now Thompson Creek) magnificent recent history to see if it can lend any insight into our situation. Here is what I found-
In January of 2005 Blue Pearl was trading around $.18 with roughly 23,000,000 shares outstanding. That represented just over a $4 million market cap. By September of 2005 the stock was trading around $.50 and there were roughly 50,000,000 shares outstanding. The market cap now stood at $25 million (a 600% increase). The stock basically tripled in 9 months while being diluted by more than 50%. As far as what was authorized, if you read their filings it states “The Company is authorized to issue an unlimited number of common shares and an unlimited number of preference shares in one or more series. The directors are authorized to fix the number of preference shares and their designation, rights, privileges and conditions attached to the shares of each series. No preference shares have been issued as of December 31, 2005.”
And the run hadn’t even started yet.
By the end of 2005 the stock was between $.70-.80 with the roughly 50,000,000 outstanding.
Beginning in 2006 the stock began it’s mega run, reaching an initial peak of $3.95 on 2/20/06.
By June the stock had come all the way back to $1.70, roughly a 60% retracement from it’s February high. At that point it began to trend back up, getting back to it’s February highs by the end of August. At that point there were about 60,000,000 shares outstanding. The market cap was now about $235 million. And I believe Sprott first dipped his toe here between May and August.
On 9/5/06 the explosion happened when they announced the acquisition of Thompson Creek. The stock proceeded to go up to as high as $18.40 and is currently around $16. During this time, while the stock ran from $3.90, the stock float increased to 143,336,000 shares, where it stands today. That gives the company a market cap over $2 billion dollars. At the beginning of 2005 the market cap of the company was 4 million dollars! In two years, through a series of private placements, acquisitions and tremendous ‘dilution’ the stock went from $.18 to $18 and outstanding shares went from 23 million to 143 million.
Interesting stuff.
I’m not saying we’re going to see the same return here. But from everything I can glean we seem to be heading down a similar path. The numbers are different, no question, but I just wanted to illustrate how ‘dilution’ isn’t really dilution but can translate to tremendous accretion.
If I’m looking at anything incorrectly here please let me know. All the numbers above are taken from filings found here- http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00012509
Perhaps my comments were not taken the way I intended. Best, I certainly appreciate you taking on the thankless task of moderating this board and I didn't mean to criticize you. So let me say thanks to you and the others helping to moderate things here (see it's no longer a 'thankless' task. 8^)).
As I said, I didn't see the deleted posts but it seemed curious to me that choad's posts were being deleted. He's become more negative than most but from everything I've seen him post there doesn't seem to be an agenda other than asking hard questions (perhaps in a snarky way, but hey, to each his own). And I think, as I have said many times, that it's rational and most appropriate to take a hard look at the things we're being told when the stock price seems so dissonant from the seeming progress being made at the company. Something doesn't jibe. When the juniors had a bounce recently we got zilch. Why is that?
In answer to your question about accurately defining 'reasonable criticism', I think it's any question or concern which is not obsessively repeated, which seems genuinely asked and which hasn't already been addressed (to that same person). How's that for nebulous? lol. I don't know, man. I just worry that we're all a bit too much like the proverbial donkey chasing a carrot on the end of a stick.
fwiw, and I say this without having read any of the removed posts, I don't think it serves anyone to censor reasonable criticism. I would much rather have well-intentioned people's input, in whatever flavor it comes, than to permit only those wearing rosey glasses.
When everybody is so bullish...
Huh? Where are you finding this bullish enthusiasm?
The stock has been in the crapper for 6 months. Every positive move in the stock is met with selling from God knows where. Myriad important issues are up in the air with no answers and seemingly no information forthcoming. The whole thing has been an equity nightmare for a long time now. Other than the occassional completely speculative comment about news forthcoming because of trading action I don't see much that can be construed as bullish regarding the stock.
And that's bullish isn't it? lol
Agreed (though I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with you, just trying to understand you're p.o.v.).
It's all speculative at this point and it probably doesn't serve anyone to parse it to death without having adequate information.
whatchutalkin'boutWillis?
Forgive my ignorance Dan, but do you mean you believe the targets of these additional mining claims were the result of studying existing documentation that details the nature of the land?
While I readily cede knowledge of this kind of thing to you it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
To wit, here is statement from the 5/1/07 pr about Gradient-The IP survey, which is expected to take
approximately four weeks, is designed to identify potential molybdenum
targets within sections of Ashdown’s 2,000-acre claim group.
Then in the recent release about the 210 claims Wayne Coldwell says this-
"Our surface reconnaissance suggests that the potential for molybdenite and gold mineralization continues along trend to the south of the Ashdown Project LLC's land position. All 210 claims staked by Golden Phoenix lie outside the Area of Interest shared with our Ashdown Project LLC partner, Win-Eldrich Mines, Ltd. My technical staff felt it was important to secure the southern extension in order to preserve future exploration and mining options. With the staking completed, we will now address the development of an exploration strategy for these new claims."
When Wayne says these claims lie outside the area of interest shared with WEX I'm not sure whether that means outside the 2000-acre claim group mentioned in the 5/1/07 pr about Gradient.
But it seemed logical to me that the claims were associated with the Gradient study undertaken to identify potential targets.
Anyway I certainly don't know.
btw, I just tried posting a question on the chat shack form When I hit send I was greeted with a new page saying this-
Error, you can't submit to this form. You have been blacklisted(1)! Invalid referral URL!
I find that odd considering I don't think I've ever posted a question there before, and if I had I don't think it would have been the kind of thing to get me 'blacklisted'. Maybe it's just a mistake- has anyone else had this experience?
Below is the last word on Gradient, posted on the chat shack on 11/15/07. Clearly the term 'several' has wide-ranging interpretations.
The fact that they staked an additional 200+ mining claims around Ashdown a couple of weeks ago had to be related to the Gradient work in some way, didn't it? If so, and I can't see how it can't, it doesn't really jibe with 'the results will be discussed when available'.
On the other hand, is it possible that they needed to secure the property and areas of interest before releasing the data? I don't know anything about how that works, but it seems to make sense logically, no?
Q: What is the current status of the Gradient work that’s been done on the property? The June 12th PR reported collection of field data with the results to be analyzed over the next couple of weeks. That was five months ago. What are the results?
A: The work that Gradient Geophysics did for the project was taken to the preliminary stage of interpretation in the weeks following the gathering of data, and subsequently was held up due to difficulty in coordinating their schedules with our geologists to refine the models. After many attempts to make this happen, we have taken receipt of the raw data and contracted with a third party to complete the interpretive work on the inversions and constraining the models prior to targeting drill holes based on the results. This work will take several more weeks, and the results will be discussed when available.
I think it's interesting that so many people are now discounting Ashdown and focusing on MR and other potential future moves as the primary reasons for investment here. While MR is certainly an important piece of the future I'm surprised by the apparent lack of belief that Ashdown will prove to be a much bigger resource than is currently known. Isn't that why we just staked 210 additional mining claims at Ashdown? Hasn't the long held belief been that what has been proven up to date is only a fraction of what the property seems to suggest?
I think Ashdown is more important than many people here now seem to believe. And I'm just curious why others no longer seem sanguine on Ashdowns prospects.
I think it might be interesting and instructive if those who are investors here indicate their current rationale for putting their money into GPXM.
For my part, as I've stated in the past, I'm here because I believe Ashdown is a significantly larger resource than is currently indicated. That long-held belief has in part been validated by Sprott's interest in GPXM, which has to be based on more than just a 4-year mine life. I've continued to stay the course here because I've been impressed with the way the company has been able to turn things around and get Ashdown into production. I'm hopeful that the cash generated from Ashdown will at least lessen the amount of future stock dilution necessary to fund continued expansion and exploration. I've been further emboldened by the various people who have joined the company over the last year. In many cases they are coming from larger outfits, or have had experience at major producers, so I have to think there is some reason beyond a 4-year molybdenum mine that they are joining GPXM. Those are the basics for me. I won't get into a screed on how all of this doesn't jibe with the stock price and causes some significant cognitive dissonance in my noggin'.
As far as the dispute with WEX, I never received a reply to the email I sent a couple weeks ago and which I pasted on Raging Bull (a place I'm happy to desert in favor of here). That's somewhat annoying to me. Nevertheless, here is what what posted on the chat shack in late November-
Q: Can you comment on the current situation with WEX? Why has the dispute dragged on? Wasn’t the LLC set up to make these types of disputes easily solved? Have any dates for resolution been set? Please also comment on WEX’s claims against GP.
A: The LLC was set up to define the resolution of disputes through binding arbitration. Binding arbitration is designed to accomplish this by laying out a step-by-step process that leads to a fair - and final - decision by a qualified third-party outside the formal court channels. In many ways, it operates like a court, but with less potential for delays. Nonetheless, it still involves the use of lawyers for each side, and can be subject to various motions and actions which take time. It also involves the selection process for the arbitrator as well as requires the parties to attempt to mediate their issues first, which takes additional time. In this case we are finally approaching the last steps in the process, and expect this matter to be resolved within the coming months. The Company does not regard the counter-claims as substantive. We welcome a final resolution as soon as the process will allow.
There must be some reason they indicated they expected this to be resolved within the coming months. It's true that's a very vague timeframe, and a I guess a number of months could be 24 just as easily as 4 or 5. But that's clearly not the intent of that phrase. So was it intended to mollify or was it meant as just a few months. Damned if I know.
The Dow has risen over 27% from a low of 10653 on 6/13/06.
The Nas has risen 27% from a low of 2014 on 7/21/06.
Buzz Lightyear had it right- To Infinity and Beyond!
For bears, being right still hurts
Yes, the bears have it right: Despite yesterday's drop, the stock market has been soaring for months on a flood of debt. But being right hasn't stopped bears from taking a beating.
By Jim Jubak
Being a stock-market bear is excruciating right now.
It's bad enough taking a beating from constantly climbing stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) are both up 7% this year.
But there's something even worse than losing money when you’re a bear: It's losing money while knowing that you're right. This stock market is overvalued, as these market pessimists argue. This rally is built on a flood of cheap money. Earnings growth is slowing. There are speculative bubbles all over the world, from the apartment market in Spain to the stock market in Shanghai. And yes, there will be a day of reckoning for the global financial system.
But in the meantime, while they wait for Armageddon and the days that will divide the prudent from the reckless, bears are getting killed.
Why it matters
It's important to understand why so that you don't tune out these important voices of caution or get scared out of the stock market years before it's necessary. It's likely that we'll have one of those run-of-the-mill seasonal corrections of 5% to 10% relatively soon, probably within the next month or three. The stock market looks increasingly overextended here, with the number of new highs on the New York Stock Exchange failing to keep pace with the new highs for the S&P 500. That often flags a coming correction, which, given the historical weakness of May and June following the strength of April, wouldn't be a big surprise.
But the kind of big "I-told-you-so" downturn -- a drop of 15% to 20% or more -- that the bears have been calling for could be as much as three to five years away.
Bears are notoriously early, of course. Yes, bearish pundits did call the bear market of 2000 to 2003, but they started to call it as early as 1995. An investor who heeded those early warnings and moved to the sidelines would have lost the chance to make a lot of money.
Bears are so frequently early in their calls because they have a rather admirable and idealistic faith in fact and logic. If they can show that global liquidity has been expanding at the kind of breakneck pace that always produces a crash, that earnings growth is slowing, that earnings-per-share numbers are overinflated and that housing prices are falling, then they believe that investors will act rationally and sell their investments. The markets will crumble.
For a group of investors that spends so much time decrying the irrationality of other investors, bears curiously underestimate the ability of investors to maintain their beliefs in the face of the bears' facts.
Slow on the uptake
Market history shows that overvalued and undervalued markets go to extremes of valuation because investors don't like to face facts until they've been hit over the head with them.
For example, it's amazing to me that the stock market has rallied for all of 2007 in the face of falling earnings growth rates. It looks like operating earnings per share for the S&P 500 companies will grow by 8% to 9% in the first quarter of 2007 versus the first quarter of 2006. That's certainly not bad but a drop nonetheless from the double-digit growth rates reported for the last 19 consecutive quarters. Eight times in that string, operating earnings growth rates topped 20% in a quarter. (We don't have final numbers for the fourth quarter of 2006, but it looks like earnings growth topped 10%.)
The market's rally gets even more perplexing if we look further into 2007. Forecasts now call for earnings growth to drop to 5% in the second quarter of 2007 (versus the second quarter of 2006) and to 2% in the third quarter.
These facts, logically, should have led investors to sell stocks rather than buy.
But bullish investors are perfectly capable of looking past this bearish logic. Some investors simply don't believe the numbers. After all, at one point this year it looked like first-quarter 2007 earnings growth might come in as low as 3%-4%, but that didn't happen. Many bullish investors apparently believe that real earnings will come in above projections again in the second and third quarters, keeping the rally going.
Video on MSN Money
Jim Jubak
Betting on a global boom
Investors are pumping up blue-chip stocks in the hopes that faster growth in developing economies makes up for slower growth here. But MSN Money's Jim Jubak says Cisco's earnings show that not all big companies are poised to gain equally from overseas expansion.
Other investors are apparently looking past the projected slowdown in second-quarter and third-quarter growth to the projected pickup in the fourth quarter. For that period, Wall Street analysts, according to S&P, are now projecting 14% year-to-year growth in operating earnings.
And a third group of investors is apparently willing to simply disregard these bearish facts. The earnings growth figures are irrelevant because of the continued boom in corporate buyouts, because of continuing low interest rates, because of continued cash flow into the U.S. market from overseas. Whatever.
There's more to the irrational behavior
These three groups of investors won't be convinced by the facts, no matter how many times the bears wave them around and no matter how many additional facts the bears muster to buttress their arguments. It will take a market downturn to get their attention. Then these facts, ignored or dismissed, may seem relevant.
Or maybe not.
Because there's another big source of irrational behavior in these market that bearish arguments tend to overlook.
To my mind, one of the strongest elements in the bearish case is the growing use of riskier and riskier kinds of debt to prop up everything from buyout deals to corporate dividend payouts. (For the role of risky debt in share buybacks and dividend payouts see my May 8 column, "How cheap debt overinflates stocks.") The leverage in buyout deals is increasing, the junkiness of the junk bonds used in these deals is increasing, the amount of debt on balance sheets is increasing and the use of complex and sophisticated, but untested, derivatives to insure against loss in these deals is increasing.
Yes, this is a debt bubble, and at some point it will pop.
But those bears calling for it to pop soon are underestimating the degree of irrationality now coloring the thinking of CEOs, CFOs and investment bankers. Yes, it makes no sense to borrow money to pay a dividend if you're running a growth company. And yes, this practice puts extra debt on the corporate balance sheet. And yes, a rational CEO would recognize the danger signs and stop playing the game, putting an end to the rally in stock prices based on this risk-taking behavior.
But if a CEO is capable of behaving irrationally enough in the first place to load up the balance sheet with debt when debt is getting more expensive and harder to obtain, then that CEO is capable of borrowing even more cheap money to keep the game going.
The flood of cheap money that has produced reckless risk-taking is indeed, as the bears point out, the big worry in this market. But the flood of cheap money also postpones the day of reckoning. CEOs who haven't seen the risk in borrowing so far aren't likely to see any reason not to borrow some more.
In the case of earnings growth, it will take an actual slowdown to 3% to 5% earnings growth for a couple of quarters to get investors attention. And then we'll get our seasonal 5% to 10% correction.
In the case of the debt bubble, it will take a real credit squeeze that substantially raises the cost of debt and makes borrowing money much more difficult to wake up investors.
Creating the crunch
I can see a prototype for such a credit crunch in the recent reduction in mortgage lending in the United States in reaction to rising defaults in the subprime mortgage market. Dozens of specialists in these mortgages for borrowers with less-than-pristine credit histories have gone out of business, while others have tightened their lending standards. The last report from the Federal Reserve, in January 2007, showed that mortgage lending conditions were at their tightest since 1991. After growing at a 20% annual rate six months ago, residential mortgage lending growth has tumbled to a 0.4% growth rate, a record low.
That's a model for the kind of credit crunch that would get the attention of CEOs and investors. But the subprime market simply isn't big enough to cause a tightening in the corporate lending market as a whole. So we're left waiting for something to blow up -- and the likelihood that it will blow up big when it does. And a high probability that the blow up is further away than a purely rational, logical analysis of the financial markets indicates. Human nature, good ol' highly irrational human nature, just about guarantees that.
Until that global debt market gets a good fright -- enough of a scare to shut some lenders entirely and to get others to withdraw from the market -- this irrational, irresponsible and illogical cheap money bull market will continue, after a possible seasonal correction, with investors, bankers and executives doing the same irrational things tomorrow that they did today.
The bears will go on being right. And getting more and more frustrated that the market refuses to face facts. And angrier and angrier that investors who behave irrationally are making money while they're left licking their losses.
Thanks for your thoughts Joe. I agree it's a crazy market out there right now. It's a one way street and some stocks are beyond any kind of rationale explanation. I happen to be short DDS and I'm just amazed that it's up today with a 14% sss decline AND the market taking a dump. It would be one thing if the stock was beat up and was bouncing from lows, but the stock is within a few percent of it's high. Just nuts. I'm actually looking to get out of this DDS short in the low 30's because their real estate interests provide too much of a floor for the stock. I think the retail sector is going to get hit at some point here and DDS might not get hit as hard because of their real estate.
Hi Joe,
Curious about your (or anyone else's) thoughts on the retail stocks here. I'm flummoxed by their upward movement today in the face of quite weak sales. I can't come up with a reason why, at these levels, these stocks are rallying on these numbers. Whaddya think?
Hi Zeev,
I hope you are well and making progress against the beast.
If you are game, I'm wondering what fundamental backdrop you envision supporting a continued positive advance in the market?
From my point of view I see rising inflation, a slowing economy, continued weakness in the housing market, very high personal debt, and a market that has run tremendously for about 10 months now. Further, we have the Chinese market in severe bubble territory with unsophisticated investors reportedly taking out loans and drawing money off their credit cards to invest in the stock market. There are a million new accounts being set up every week in China.
I can't see how all of this translates to your outlook of a continued strong market so you must have a different fundamental interpretation.
I'd really like to understand your thinking.
Many thanks.
Zeev,
Havent posted in quite a while but I would just like to lend my voice to the rising chorus of support. It's wonderful to see such an outpouring of love for you. You have always been a mensch and a shining light in the sometimes tumultuous sea of cyberspace. Generous, patient, understanding, thoughtful, brave, heck, I could list a thousand postive adjectives, and none would suffice. You have, and I'm sure will continue to, enrich us all with your grace.
May your health return quickly and with a renewed vigor for having defeated the beast.
My very best wishes,
Mark
I picked up some Jan '08 30's at 22.90- a long standing order. Didnt even realize it filled until a few minutes ago.
Are you buying the airlines here? They seem extremely overbought to me. CAL, for example, is up alomst 50% in the last 2 months. I realize things are improving for the airlines but that seems more than baked in the cake here.
I am short CAL from lower levels and added today at $34.60.
Hi AD,
I picked up some of that RFID play we talked about a couple weeks ago- XCHC. Bought at $1.98. Not a big position, but from what I've been able to glean they look interesting and could do well as RFID gets rolling. I have an order to add more around $1.75 should it go there.
Thanks very much for your thoughts opnion.
Hi Opnion,
Back in August you posted this-
Posted by: opnion
In reply to: Newly2b who wrote msg# 17598
Date:8/21/2006 7:33:07 AM
Post #of 19447
I would expect $gold to dip below 600 into say the 585-590 area for at least a reaction low. Today's action may not hold up by close.
______
Good call! We are now at those levels and, given your comment in the post I'm responding to, this seems to be a critical level for your models. Are you basically saying that if we can hold around here, without printing 567, you DON'T see gold retracing all the way to 450-475?
I'm trying to piece these two posts together.
Thanks.
Thanks very much landm and everyone else who has emailed or pm'd me so far. I appreciate the input greatly.
OT-
Hi Bear,
Do you play online at all? I've been playing seriously for a number of years now and have played in a couple of WPT events, though I haven't cashed in those yet. But that will come. I also expect to play in the WSOP in the next couple of years, and hopefully for many years to come.
I play primarily on Party and started playing some on Full Tilt about a month ago. Same moniker as here.
As far as live, which I play a lot less, I play at some card clubs here in the city (though I havent for about 6 months) and ocassionally go up to Foxwoods or down to AC.
Hi all,
I just posted this on Zeev's board and thought I would post it here as well...
There are many good people here who, I believe, trade for a living. For quite a while this is something I've wanted to do but for various reasons I have not taken that step. But I'm at the point now where I would like to seriously pursue full-time trading. I'm not planning to jump into it immediately because I need to improve my discipline, create a system and plan, and likely increase my capital. It may be a couple of years before I can realistically make this transition, but I've decided I need to start becoming serious about taking the necessary steps rather than just carry on with the vague notion rolling around in my head.
So, for all those willing to share, I would simply like to know how you got started. What sort of capital did you start with and what were your expectations? Did your initial plans and expectations change once you started on this journey? Looking back now, do you feel there were crucial elements you were lacking when you started which you have since acquired? What do you consider to be the crucial elements/tools to do this successfully? Having done this, do you find it fulfilling, interesting, more or less enjoyable than what you had initially projected? Did you have a professional background in trading or finance before deciding to do this on your own?
Basically I'm looking for some guidance on this whole thing.
I realize I may be asking for some information you may not want to share on a public message board but if you are willing to share with me via email I would be most grateful. My email is majnyc@gmail.com.
Thanks everyone.
There are many good people here who, I believe, trade for a living. For quite a while this is something I've wanted to do but for various reasons I have not taken that step. But I'm at the point now where I would like to seriously pursue full-time trading. I'm not planning to jump into it immediately because I need to improve my discipline, create a system and plan, and likely increase my capital. It may be a couple of years before I can realistically make this transition, but I've decided I need to start becoming serious about taking the necessary steps rather than just carry on with the vague notion rolling around in my head.
So, for all those willing to share, I would simply like to know how you got started. What sort of capital did you start with and what were your expectations? Did your initial plans and expectations change once you started on this journey? Looking back now, do you feel there were crucial elements you were lacking when you started which you have since acquired? What do you consider to be the crucial elements/tools to do this successfully? Having done this, do you find it fulfilling, interesting, more or less enjoyable than what you had initially projected? Did you have a professional background in trading or finance before deciding to do this on your own?
Basically I'm looking for some guidance on this whole thing.
I realize I may be asking for some information you may not want to share on a public message board but if you are willing to share with me via email I would be most grateful. My email is majnyc@gmail.com.
Thanks everyone.
<<pretty interesting what you can uncover with a couple of key words and google>>
Tobin Smith ...? try googling him;)
lol. Yeah, ok.
But trusted opinion doesn't always come up so easily on a google search!
ot- you know, when I wrote that I in no way intended it to be sarcastic- it was a sincere statement. I was honestly surprised how easily I uncovered those stocks just from that article.
But now, when I read that sentence, it can certainly be construed as sarcastic. Intent and meaning can be too easily clouded when casually posting on message boards. With the internet, the medium can obfuscate the message.
It's actually pretty interesting what you can uncover with a couple of key words and google. That's all I did and I came up with XCHC.ob as the RFID play (specifically their AirGATE Technologies division. Pretty certain that's the one. At first glance they look interesting, though they have typical bb stock financials. But their recent revenue growth has been pretty dramatic.
I've also uncovered his second pick that deals with plastics. That one seems to be Integral Technologies (ITKG.ob), and it's taken a bit of a hit over the last week on what seems to be some dilution.
Interestingly, the quotes Tobin uses in his piece touting this secret little company are found in an article that appeared in an April 2004 article (see below). Who is this Tobin guy?
Friday, April 16, 2004
An invention in Bellingham could alter your cell phone
By DAN RICHMAN
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER
A Bellingham firm says it has created a plastic that can turn cell phones into their own antennas, resulting in fewer dropped calls, better battery life and clearer reception.
The highly conductive resin, dubbed Electriplast, could also improve the efficiency of LED lighting, in-floor radiant heating, defibrillators and pacemakers, said its inventor, Thomas Aisenbrey, who is chief technology officer at Integral Technologies Inc.
Antennas molded out of Electriplast and mounted on military vehicles would be harder to see and so tougher to disable, and on cars, they'd be unobtrusive.
Electriplast isn't on the market yet, but trials are going on at four Fortune 100 companies, and major handset makers have expressed strong interest, said Aisenbrey, who holds two patents on the substance and has 44 more pending.
The inexpensive material, also known as Plastenna, conducts heat, electricity and radio- frequency energy nearly as well as copper, yet it can be mixed with rigid or flexible plastics and formed into just about any shape plastic can take on, he said.
"My gut's telling me this is going to change the electronics world," said Aisenbrey, 46.
An independent testing lab verified some of Aisenbrey's claims.
"He could show that a cell phone modified with his antenna was up to twice as efficient as with a normal antenna," said Lothar Schmidt, a technical manager for Cetecom Inc. of Milpitas, Calif.
For the chief executive of Integral Technologies, which hasn't turned a profit since it was founded in 1996, Electriplast represents a bright future.
advertising
"I think it will rock the wireless world, quite frankly," said Bill Robinson, who runs the company from an office in Vancouver, B.C. "It's fun to be in the position we're at, finally."
The company, which is traded over the counter, has a market capitalization of about $31 million, with 5,000 shareholders.
At one time, it had 20 employees. But when Aisenbrey, who said he has been tinkering with electronics since age 6, arrived there from Panasonic three years ago, he fired the rest of the engineering staff because of their inefficiency. Now it has seven employees.
A high school grad with certificates in electronics and sound engineering, Aisenbrey came up with Electriplast 30 months ago "as a fluke thing" while trying to remedy design flaws in an antenna the company had been shipping.
A patent search revealed nothing like it, clearing the way for intensive development, third-party testing and commercialization perhaps as early as this year.
"Without a doubt, we want to drive this company into a multimillion business," Aisenbrey said. "I'm not here for the fresh air."
Hey AD,
When did this Tobin Smith article come out?
After just doing a little research I think I know the RFID company he's touting. Gonna do some looking into it later tonight and will let you know.
No jinxing allowed!
RFID-
In the past I've played around with ZBRA, SBL, DOC and ADSX. But I stopped watching them about a year ago when I felt it was too early in the development and wide-scale deployment of RFID technology. Too frequently in the past I've bought into what I've believed to be paradigm shifting tech trends only to find I'm just too early. It may still be too early for RFID investments (see Alien's pulling of their IPO), but the recent aquisition of SBL by MOT caught my attention and I'm beginning to look at this stuff again. Other than the stocks above, another one I'm looking at is GPIC who makes RFID gaming chips.
As an aside, I wonder if the Bush administration's strong association with religion could throw up further road blocks to the emergence of this technology- mark of the beast and all that nonsense...
Be Wary of Religious Opposition to RFID
While people have a right to their religious beliefs, invoking God to oppose RFID could hinder attempts to address privacy concerns in a rational way.
By Mark Roberti
Aug. 7, 2006—The New York Times ran a very interesting op-ed article last week about religious opposition to stem-cell research (registered users of the Times site, see A Pox on Stem Cell Research). Author Deborah Blum suggests that it is a mistake to allow the "moral structures of the moment" to stifle research into new medical techniques. This is a controversial topic that one could spend years debating, but Blum gives a solid example to support her views.
In her article, Blum explains that smallpox was killing tens of thousands of people a year in Europe when an English doctor, Edward Jenner, began studying why those exposed to the related but milder cowpox infection seemed to be immune to smallpox. Jenner did experiments using fluid from cowpox lesions to inoculate patients. Religious authorities viewed this as "dangerous and sinful," saying only God had the power to decide when life begins and ends, and that doctors should not try to intervene. Jenner responded by inoculating his son and then exposing him to smallpox to prove his ideas were of great benefit to humanity. His son did not get infected, but newspapers ridiculed Jenner.
What's this got to do with RFID? Maybe nothing…maybe a lot. Katherine Albrecht, the founder of Consumers Against Supermarket Privacy Invasion and Numbering (CASPIAN), opposes RFID because she says it represents the Mark of the Best (Edit: This should read "Beast"). "When I was eight years old, my grandmother sat me down after a visit to a grocery store and told me that there will be a time when people will not be able to buy or sell food without a number, referring to the Mark of the Beast, Revelations xiii," she was quoted as saying back in 2003. "I made a promise to myself, at eight years old, that if there was ever a number to buy or sell food, I would stop what I was doing and fight it."
More recently, she told C/Net: "My goal as a Christian (is) to sound the alarm." A version of her book opposing RFID is titled, The Spychips Threat: Why Christians Should Resist RFID and Electronic Surveillance.
Albrecht has every right to oppose RFID on religious grounds, but her views raise the question of whether she is hyping privacy concerns to achieve her religious goals. My guess is she would say she cares about both—preventing the end of the world and preventing the invasion of privacy. My point here, though, is that while individuals have the right to reject a new technology and even campaign against it, societies should be wary about banning technologies for religious reasons.
The C/Net article points out that some people raised concerns about the end of the world being triggered by the Y2K software issue, bar codes, Social Security numbers and even the Gutenberg press. It quotes Albrecht as saying, "I'd like to think I'd be speaking out against them, too, if I was around at the time they were introduced."
And therein lies the problem. None of those things led to the apocalypse. All—with the exception of the Y2K problem, of course—created benefits for companies and individuals. The Gutenberg press transformed the world by taking information out of the hands of an elite few and making it available to everyone. Bar codes and Social Security numbers have had less of an impact, but bar codes have made businesses more efficient and goods cheaper. Millions rely upon the Social Security system in the United States in their retirement years.
The press and policy makers need to separate religious-driven opposition to RFID from questions about how RFID should be used and how individual privacy should be protected. Failure to do so, the Times article shows, will likely lead to restrictions on a technology that has myriad benefits for consumers and businesses alike.
Mark Roberti is the founder and editor of RFID Journal.
http://www.rfidjournal.com/article/articleview/2543/1/128/
Hi AD,
On the RFID front-
IPOs in RFID: If Not Alien, Then Who?
Tuesday August 15th, 2006
The cancellation of Alien Technology's initial public offering has been greeted by the industry with weariness and disappointment. While not altogether surprising given the company's challenging economic fundamentals and the inhospitable macroeconomic climate, industry watchers remained hopeful, excited by the prospect of a publicly-traded pure-play RFID company. The question now is: If Alien is not going to be the first public RFID company, who is?
Gen2 chip supplier Impinj has been vocal about its intention to go public. Like Alien, the fabless semiconductor company competes in the EPC RFID space and is venture funded (see Impinj Lands $26.5M in 4th Round of Funding). With a tight focus on production of the silicon microchips that power RFID tags, the company's business model differs greatly from that of Alien, whose offering portfolio spans inlays, readers, battery-assisted RFID, services, and training. Furthermore, Impinj has a clear plan for long-term profitability, having already been profitable in Q4 of last year. Despite such promise, however, an IPO is still a ways off. It certainly won't be in 2006, and maybe not even 2007. The company will only hint at a timeframe, saying "sometime in the next two years."
ThingMagic is another company that has received IPO speculation. The RFID reader manufacturer was founded by a handful of MIT PhDs and has received around $20 million in venture funding. Despite the speculation, Pete Abell, program director of radio frequency sensor network research at Manufacturing Insights, does not consider a ThingMagic IPO very likely. Instead, he sees the company's relationship with one of its investors -- Cisco -- as significant. Cisco is known for being very acquisitive, historically investing in companies that it ultimately buys. "To me it looks much more likely that ThingMagic would be a Cisco acquisition rather than an IPO play," said Abell.
Both Impinj and ThingMagic participate in the EPC RFID market, which has not realized the optimistic projections common in 2003 and 2004 after Wal-Mart and the US Department of Defense issued their industry-catalyzing RFID mandates. While analysts continue to believe that the market will grow and eventually generate large demand, they have stopped holding their breath. The data from those companies that are already public and active within EPC RFID -- like Symbol, Intermec, and Zebra -- only reinforces the view that the market is too small yet to present an opportunity to Wall Street. Just the other week, Symbol stated during its investor conference call that RFID revenues will not be material in 2006.
Abell therefore concludes that much of the attention on EPC may have been misplaced, especially in light of the RTLS and active RFID market, which makes for a more compelling story. It has grown steadily, albeit quietly, through a combination of vertical focus and ROI-driven offerings. Whereas some EPC RFID companies have undertaken a loss-leader strategy to acquire market share with the expectation of a payoff when large demand materializes, RTLS vendors are already making real money on every sale. Abell likes the space so much, in fact, that he thinks it could be a source of IPO activity. In the RTLS market, says Abell, "there are profitable purchase orders that are real, in verticals that are not aimed at trying to keep the profit of an RFID company to a bare minimum, as in the [EPC] retail world."
Abell cited three RTLS companies in particular: RF Code, WhereNet, and AeroScout. "I will speculate that one of those three RTLS companies will go public in early 2007. Or be acquired. But I suspect IPO." RF Code in particular makes a strong candidate. The recently-won $30 million contract with SYMX, the global provider of medical equipment services and products, is a strong validation of the company's business model and prospects (see yesterday's Active RFID Provider RF Code Nails $30m Deal). Like others in the RTLS space, RF Code has "focused on specific verticals where their technology makes sense and where they can make money."
Another characteristic of the RTLS business model where Abell sees value is that it is full-service. RF Code provides the entire asset-tracking solution, from software and hardware to support and upgrades. "That's the right way to attack a vertical niche, so there's one throat to choke," according to Abell. In the EPC RFID market, by contrast, the hardware, software, and services might all come from different vendors, making it difficult for an end user to know which to turn to for support in the event of a problem.
Thus, while the expectation has long been that RFID vendors in the EPC space would lead the investment opportunities for Wall Street, it appears that RTLS and active RFID vendors could beat them to the punch. Regardless, it will likely be many months at a minimum before the industry can look forward to an IPO from either camp.
http://www.rfidupdate.com/articles/index.php?id=1180
Hi Belgie,
FWIW, that's exactly what I was thinking with JOYG- 30 is possible, even 28. However, because I think JOYG already presents quite a good value I started building my position on Friday. I bought April 25 calls. I'll add more if we go to the 28-30 area. If that doesnt happen I'll add on the way up. This is a longer term position trade for me (thus the April calls).
Thanks Joe. I think that's solid reasoning. I'll take a look at DDS and may substitute that for my COH position.
I picked up some Nov. COH puts a little while ago, too soon I'm afraid. I've been thinking of adding to that position. I'm just not sure if I'd be better served with a lower-end retailer, which is more in line with the stocks you mentioned.
I dont disagree with that analysis, but my aspirations for this trade are short-term, perhaps a couple of weeks. I used puts simply because I didnt want to tie up too much $ with a short position. If the builders are getting healthier I think the stocks need to establish firmer bases and the recent run should come back a bit to consolidate. They are quite overbought right now and many of these stocks have hit resistance areas. That's my thinking anyway. We'll see.
fwiw, I asked a friend of mine who is an o&g analyst about his very basic near-term outlook on NG stocks. This was his response-
As for nat gas. It still has about seven weeks of injections togo through. I must warn you it could get very sloppy during that period. XTO is a good one to bet on once this shakes out.
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> If you can keep an eye on estimates for Nat gas 2007. Once that settles down people will renter.
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> I am fearful that during the 3q conference calls these companies will be very tempered in their outlook which could fuel negative sentiment.